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  • bhdevault

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  • hobbes2d

    • 801

      RG Overall Ranking

    @bigkino217 said...

    denver having everyone back worries me. they’re priced so high that despite scoring 126 points last game, only 2 players made value, and that was even with gallo still out

    He’s their best player though. Them having guys back (sounds like Faried will be out again) doesn’t scare me off a guy with 60 point upside.

  • bigkino217

    @dgballer said...

    Even if the Celtics blow out the Suns don’t the starters have to score a lot of points to blow them out. So either the Boston starters have to go off or the Suns won’t score many points making them not such great plays. I never understood why you should stay away from a blowout. I would like to hear why or why not blowouts are good or bad

    because typically the guys you would normally play on a team would get a lot less minutes in a blowout, which caps their upside. steph curry has been on fire lately, for example, but he’s never making value anymore because they’re blowing everyone out again. he’s cracked 30 mins once in the last 4 games (all blowouts), and that was barely 30 mins.

  • frugal

    @superbuckwild said...

    So for those who don’t believe…. MUHAHAHAHA… lol it is possible to create a lineup on FD with a core of ABC, Harden, Cousins and Butler… I actually have more worries over whether I am picking the right spend up guys as opposed to the cheap fliers to be honest with you. A lot of the cheap 3500 – 4000 guys are in decent positions where even if they shit the bed, they should get a 13 – 18 not killing your lineup… Let me run the numbers like I was doing to give some perspective and then I have a question for the masses regarding it…

    ABC against the Hawks has 55 upside 33, 8, 6, 2 and 3 in last game against Thabo which is between 50 – 55 fd points
    I am penciling Harden in for a 55 with 70 upside in what should be a close game
    Cousins has 65 upside given pace matchup with a 45 – 50 floor
    finally Butler against philly is floor of 45 with 55 – 60 upside…
    If I go semi best case scenario I pencil in ABC with 55, Harden with 60, Cousins with 55 and Butler with 55 giving me a score of 225..

    I already mentioned that Muhammed at 4k against lakers is one of the other guys. I think he puts up 30 in the matchup against the Lakers which is not out of the questions given poor defense and fact that he will play in blow out. that brings my score up to 255.

    I have 4 players left, if they all hit about 18 which is just bare minimum 5x at a salary of 3.5 or 3.6 we add another 72 to 255 to give a total of 327.

    Here is my dilemma… and where I would like feedback from the group… is this really going to bring down a huge GPP? for it to happen if I assume the top end of previous players it would be a score of maybe 60 for greek, 70 for harden, 65 for Cousins and 60 for Butler giving 255 for added muhammed. If I add best case stupendous result of 35 from muhammed I get to 280. If my final 4 guys go off for 6 – 7 x for a minimum players which is what you are hoping for you are looking at 25 each by 4 adding another 100 to 280 and bringing it up to 380.

    Is this good enough to bring down a GPP tonight? I have seen crazy scores of 400 plus on nights with 10 or more games usually bringing down the GPP’s.

    My question is… is this type of lineup build actually better for a cash game or a single entry GPP as opposed to a big GPP even though at first glance it seems like a shot in the dark?

    Also, am I picking the right studs? someone mentioned that they took out Harden and put in Davis instead… of the 4 I am most concerned with Greek because of Thabo defense and unpredictability of Jason Kidd? If you have to pick 4 8k and over studs for tonight to build around, who would these 4 be and why?

    Thanks everyone

    And I thought Yahoo pricing was a little soft… ;-)

  • bigkino217

    @hobbes2d said...

    He’s their best player though. Them having guys back (sounds like Faried will be out again) doesn’t scare me off a guy with 60 point upside.

    i don’t think his upside is as high since plumlee got there. malone won’t play him 35+ mins anymore if everyone is healthy even if he’s going off in a close game.

  • superbuckwild

    • Blogger of the Month

    @dgballer said...

    Even if the Celtics blow out the Suns don’t the starters have to score a lot of points to blow them out. So either the Boston starters have to go off or the Suns won’t score many points making them not such great plays. I never understood why you should stay away from a blowout. I would like to hear why or why not blowouts are good or bad

    I just stay away from the super expensive guys in a blowout in fear that the other team is so weak that the good team is able to destroy the weak team with the ball being spread around more as opposed to 2 or 3 superstars doing all the action. For example, on Boston I might stay away from Thomas because his price tag is so high and he is so scoring dependent but a guy like Crowder go gets steals and other stats or Horford who also gets assists and other stats can still pay off salaries that are lower… Unless a guy has a crazy night, its hard to score 60 fd points in 20 – 25 minutes but Horford could still score 30 – 35 in that time in my opinion still hitting value.

  • frugal

    @dgballer said...

    Even if the Celtics blow out the Suns don’t the starters have to score a lot of points to blow them out. So either the Boston starters have to go off or the Suns won’t score many points making them not such great plays. I never understood why you should stay away from a blowout. I would like to hear why or why not blowouts are good or bad

    It largely depends on the definition of blowout. In a game decided by 18 or less which was within 12-15 up until the 4th then the win will largely be driven by the stars and it will be their performance which creates the blowout. However, when we’re speaking of a team down by 20 or more at the half, which this game has the potential to be, it will absolutely be due to star play and their 2nd half minutes will be greatly reduced which limits their upside.

    I often play guys predicted to be blowing out other teams and it works out. I may still throw 1 lineup with a couple Celtics in it, but by and large I will only be playing the PHO side.

  • Pandamonious

    • 370

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #50

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • Moderator

    @superbuckwild said...

    So for those who don’t believe…. MUHAHAHAHA… lol it is possible to create a lineup on FD with a core of ABC, Harden, Cousins and Butler… I actually have more worries over whether I am picking the right spend up guys as opposed to the cheap fliers to be honest with you. A lot of the cheap 3500 – 4000 guys are in decent positions where even if they shit the bed, they should get a 13 – 18 not killing your lineup… Let me run the numbers like I was doing to give some perspective and then I have a question for the masses regarding it…

    ABC against the Hawks has 55 upside 33, 8, 6, 2 and 3 in last game against Thabo which is between 50 – 55 fd points
    I am penciling Harden in for a 55 with 70 upside in what should be a close game
    Cousins has 65 upside given pace matchup with a 45 – 50 floor
    finally Butler against philly is floor of 45 with 55 – 60 upside…
    If I go semi best case scenario I pencil in ABC with 55, Harden with 60, Cousins with 55 and Butler with 55 giving me a score of 225..

    I already mentioned that Muhammed at 4k against lakers is one of the other guys. I think he puts up 30 in the matchup against the Lakers which is not out of the questions given poor defense and fact that he will play in blow out. that brings my score up to 255.

    I have 4 players left, if they all hit about 18 which is just bare minimum 5x at a salary of 3.5 or 3.6 we add another 72 to 255 to give a total of 327.

    Here is my dilemma… and where I would like feedback from the group… is this really going to bring down a huge GPP? for it to happen if I assume the top end of previous players it would be a score of maybe 60 for greek, 70 for harden, 65 for Cousins and 60 for Butler giving 255 for added muhammed. If I add best case stupendous result of 35 from muhammed I get to 280. If my final 4 guys go off for 6 – 7 x for a minimum players which is what you are hoping for you are looking at 25 each by 4 adding another 100 to 280 and bringing it up to 380.

    Is this good enough to bring down a GPP tonight? I have seen crazy scores of 400 plus on nights with 10 or more games usually bringing down the GPP’s.

    My question is… is this type of lineup build actually better for a cash game or a single entry GPP as opposed to a big GPP even though at first glance it seems like a shot in the dark?

    Also, am I picking the right studs? someone mentioned that they took out Harden and put in Davis instead… of the 4 I am most concerned with Greek because of Thabo defense and unpredictability of Jason Kidd? If you have to pick 4 8k and over studs for tonight to build around, who would these 4 be and why?

    Thanks everyone

    I played around with this after your initial post and didn’t hate what it looked like. It’s definitely doable. I personally like PG13 more than Butler though, so I switched down to him opening up 900. Then I switched Cousins down to Howard opening up another 2,100. Then I really liked what I could do. In my opinion PG13, putting the Pacers on his back in a pace up game has a higher ceiling than Butler tonight. If you really want to save I think Wiggins could explode tonight. Howard should own the boards tonight, and although his upside isn’t near Cousins, I just don’t see him having another monster game back to back. I think Howard can get you 40 easy and push for 50, and the savings over Cousins is worth it.

  • Tigeryank

    @scott1489 said...

    Stop it…

    In how many minutes ?

  • joemorris100

    @RAWSHADTX said...

    Damn. It’s hard NOT to use some of the Suns players now. They have no body. That value is something serious.

    Tough to score with no body 😃

  • bigkino217

    do i dare play alan williams again?

  • Scottjmark

    Anybody like Buddy Hield again? Hit 6X value in 4 out of last 6. Fast paced game.

  • dgballer

    @frugal said...

    It largely depends on the definition of blowout. In a game decided by 18 or less which was within 12-15 up until the 4th then the win will largely be driven by the stars and it will be their performance which creates the blowout. However, when we’re speaking of a team down by 20 or more at the half, which this game has the potential to be, it will absolutely be due to star play and their 2nd half minutes will be greatly reduced which limits their upside.

    I often play guys predicted to be blowing out other teams and it works out. I may still throw 1 lineup with a couple Celtics in it, but by and large I will only be playing the PHO side.

    Link Quote Reply * To quote a specific section, highlight the desired text with the cursor before using the Quote link * GIF https://media.giphy.com/media/AAFKOoD6B1F0k/giphy.gif Search Agree Applause Awww Dance Deal With It Do Not Want Eww Please Facepalm Fist Bump Good Luck Goodbye Happy Dance Hearts High Five Hug IDK Kiss Mic Drop No OMG Oh Snap Ok Oops Popcorn SMH Scared Seriously Shocked Shrug Sigh Slow Clap Sorry Thank You Thumbs Down Thumbs Up Want Win Wink YOLO Yawn Yes You Got This $(document).ready(function() { giphy.init(); }); Pandamonious

    Thanks for your thoughts I appreciate the input.

  • ehylton

    @superbuckwild said...

    So for those who don’t believe…. MUHAHAHAHA… lol it is possible to create a lineup on FD with a core of ABC, Harden, Cousins and Butler… I actually have more worries over whether I am picking the right spend up guys as opposed to the cheap fliers to be honest with you. A lot of the cheap 3500 – 4000 guys are in decent positions where even if they shit the bed, they should get a 13 – 18 not killing your lineup… Let me run the numbers like I was doing to give some perspective and then I have a question for the masses regarding it…

    ABC against the Hawks has 55 upside 33, 8, 6, 2 and 3 in last game against Thabo which is between 50 – 55 fd points
    I am penciling Harden in for a 55 with 70 upside in what should be a close game
    Cousins has 65 upside given pace matchup with a 45 – 50 floor
    finally Butler against philly is floor of 45 with 55 – 60 upside…
    If I go semi best case scenario I pencil in ABC with 55, Harden with 60, Cousins with 55 and Butler with 55 giving me a score of 225..

    I already mentioned that Muhammed at 4k against lakers is one of the other guys. I think he puts up 30 in the matchup against the Lakers which is not out of the questions given poor defense and fact that he will play in blow out. that brings my score up to 255.

    I have 4 players left, if they all hit about 18 which is just bare minimum 5x at a salary of 3.5 or 3.6 we add another 72 to 255 to give a total of 327.

    Here is my dilemma… and where I would like feedback from the group… is this really going to bring down a huge GPP? for it to happen if I assume the top end of previous players it would be a score of maybe 60 for greek, 70 for harden, 65 for Cousins and 60 for Butler giving 255 for added muhammed. If I add best case stupendous result of 35 from muhammed I get to 280. If my final 4 guys go off for 6 – 7 x for a minimum players which is what you are hoping for you are looking at 25 each by 4 adding another 100 to 280 and bringing it up to 380.

    Is this good enough to bring down a GPP tonight? I have seen crazy scores of 400 plus on nights with 10 or more games usually bringing down the GPP’s.

    My question is… is this type of lineup build actually better for a cash game or a single entry GPP as opposed to a big GPP even though at first glance it seems like a shot in the dark?

    Also, am I picking the right studs? someone mentioned that they took out Harden and put in Davis instead… of the 4 I am most concerned with Greek because of Thabo defense and unpredictability of Jason Kidd? If you have to pick 4 8k and over studs for tonight to build around, who would these 4 be and why?

    Thanks everyone

    Hey, take out ABC and replace with Wall, more upside and go cheap PF’s?

    Edit: nvm just read about players in blowout situations

  • church2014

    They left the last 2 games off so you don’t have to worry about getting screwed by the late sits. I like it, burned too many times

  • krazyju84

    @TrustinthePlan said...

    As far as Chriss foul trouble, he had one last night, so no need to worry about that tonight.

    WHAT?!

  • keephustlincuz

    @krazyju84 said...

    WHAT?!

    Does amir Johnson get people in foul trouble?

  • Petergunz82

    @moped_jones said...

    Is it really revenge when they did you a HUGE favor?

    The revenge game narrative is probably one of the most over-hyped, meaningless terms in DFS. It only works when people are pissed at their former team.

    Like Matt Barnes

  • krazyju84

    To add for the ABC Harden Butler Cousins stack discussion, its very doable to make a lineup with cheapies that will pretty much see 25 plus minutes. But from my experience, especially on a larger slate, its hard to win anything decent with such stack because such many games can have many players around 5000-8000 range can go off. But i might have some of these lineups just in case.

  • moped_jones

    @superbuckwild said...

    Also, am I picking the right studs? someone mentioned that they took out Harden and put in Davis instead…

    That was me. I am………“someone”.

    I did that to free up a couple grand to get a couple better scrubs. This allowed me to get Chriss (who is not a scrub, lol).

  • dgballer

    @moped_jones said...

    That was me. I am………“someone”.

    Somebody?

  • krazyju84

    @keephustlincuz said...

    Does amir Johnson get people in foul trouble?

    its 5v5 not 1v1. and now that you mention it Amir Johnson seems perfect guy to get Chriss in foul trouble because he likes to bang in the paint for glass and most of Chriss fouls come in the paint. I’m not saying avoid Chriss because he will get in foul trouble but saying dont worry about foul trouble tonight because he had that yesterday?!? I dont know about that

  • KillaChap

    So everyone is going stars and scrubs on here? Cool, I’ll go balanced!

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Just my thoughts..stack the cle/char and den/Indy game…after that you have five potential blowout games and det/Orl which is not enticing…the two games I mentioned should be the most competitive and not to mention could be very high scoring…I really expect quite a bit out of George and Teague tonight as they are very much aware of what happened when they played in London..klove with the 50 burger tonight….also a good night to stack the big Cleveland three as they will all be lower owned.

  • balladamus

    I have a question for you guys. I do watch a lot of basketball but I’ve never really paid attention to this. In situations like the Suns, where they are down to only 8 players in a long 48 minute game, do Refs tend to swallow their whistles more so that guys don’t foul out, unless the fouls are really bad? Is it possible that they watch their foul calls on players in the second half if they have like 3 or 4?

  • biged263835

    Chriss put up 30 FP against the Celts earlier in the year when he wasn’t getting as much usage due to the Suns actually having a roster of NBA players. Celts also don’t blow out teams, only 4 blowout wins on the season. They don’t show vs. bad teams. Just some stuff to consider, the PHO young guys should be safe.

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