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  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    7:00 PM EST : Brooklyn ( -5.5 ) at Detroit ( 5.5 ) — T: 223.5
    7:30 PM EST : Boston ( 6 ) at Milwaukee ( -6 ) — T: 233
    7:30 PM EST : Phoenix ( -5 ) at Toronto ( 5 ) — T: 224
    8:00 PM EST : Denver ( -2 ) at New Orleans ( 2 ) — T: 232
    8:00 PM EST : Houston ( 3.5 ) at Minnesota ( -3.5 ) — T: 226
    8:00 PM EST : Portland ( -11 ) at Orlando ( 11 ) — T: 218.5
    8:00 PM EST : Miami ( -2 ) at Charlotte ( 2 ) — T: 217.5
    8:30 PM EST : Indiana ( 4.5 ) at Dallas ( -4.5 ) — T: 227
    9:00 PM EST : Memphis ( 9.5 ) at Utah ( -9.5 ) — T: 227
    10:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( -5.5 ) at Golden State ( 5.5 ) — T: 220
    10:30 PM EST : Cleveland ( 4.5 ) at LA Lakers ( -4.5 ) — T: 213

    RG FORUM DRAFTKINGS LEAGUE

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s NBA thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • fleishmo6

    Anthony Edwards, Grant and Schroeder to start my line ups
    Need value to get in one spend up piece

  • theIrrigator

    • 904

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #29

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Y’all think we can fill a 75 man contest? Wish it didn’t jump from 50 to 75

  • thegunnard

    @theIrrigator said...

    Y’all think we can fill a 75 man contest? Wish it didn’t jump from 50 to 75

  • superjon

    Would have been nice if we could have had a 4-6 game slate after yesterday.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2019 Blogger of the Month

    @theIrrigator said...

    Y’all think we can fill a 75 man contest? Wish it didn’t jump from 50 to 75

    Probably not. Maybe. The bigger the money, the quicker they fill. Didn’t last time someone chucked $500 at it, you did 50 and it filled in record time?

  • theIrrigator

    • 904

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #29

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @Pandamonious said...

    Probably not. Maybe. The bigger the money, the quicker they fill. Didn’t last time someone chucked $500 at it, you did 50 and it filled in record time?

    Yeah like an hour. I want to do 75 but would suck if he didnt fill. I guess I’ll stick to 50 and just wait a few hours to post the contest

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2019 Blogger of the Month

    @superjon said...

    Would have been nice if we could have had a 4-6 game slate after yesterday.

    Fade :

    Cleveland/Lakers
    Miami/Charlotte
    Portland/Orlando
    Memphis/Utah
    Brooklyn/Detroit

    All Raptors, All Pacers

    Equivalent of 5 games left and you gain an extra 1/2 hour.

  • winnerchickendinner

    Magic players going to be heavy chalk. Wonder how many is too many and if Ross will play.

  • frugal

    So more of what I’m learning this season:

    So did OK last night, cashed 7/10 lineups entering both into the DK .25 (20 entries, 10 lineups in pairs) and $1 (10 lineups). I didn’t really take too close a look at the payout structure but noticed at the end of the night, the .25 paid me 1.5 entry fees vs the $1 1.4. So I did a little research today on the 3 sites I mess with and their low stake contests:

    DK offers 3 big low stake multi-entry contests .25, .5, and $1. In the back of my head somewhere, I remember DK changing their min payout on the $1 to 1.5X from 2X. This extends the winning population to ~27% however with 10 entries would require cashing 7 to recover entry fee and the 2X entry is at 14% tier. Even stranger is the DK .50 contest offers the same top prize as the $1 of $2,0000 but has a min payout of 2X entry for ~21% f entries. The .25 with a top prize of $400 offer 2X at ~24%. I’ve not entered the .50 before, but that seems like the sweet spot here

    FD 3 low stakes contests at .05 with a top prize of $600, .25/$500, $1/$300. In each contest min cash is 2X entry and they pay out and the highest percentage of entries of all 3 sites. For the .05 and .25 30% of entries will double their money and the $1 25%. I’ve been experimenting with the .05 over there entering 16 difference contests since mid Feb and won 9 times, 4 of those were better than min cash. It’s been a long, long time since I played there regularly and the structure is super rigid compared to DK,, but if the win rate of the .25 matched the .05, treating these tournaments like double ups may be a longer term cash positive play.

    Yahoo has the smallest top prizes of all with the following low stakes contests: .25/$100 and $1/$200. In addition to having the smallest prizes, the .25 offers a lower win percentage than even DK with only 20% min cashing. The $1 has a slightly better rate at 22% but still not really competitive with the other sites. I used to love Yahoo due to the smaller contests with lower max entries, but they allow a disproportionally large amount of entries into contests which I believe has contributed to skewing the cash lines higher. For example, at the .25 level DK and FD allow 20 entries in contests with 38,049 and 57,485 entries where Yahoo allows 100 in a contest with 4,544. IMHO, Yahoo needs to either up it’s contest sizes/prizes significantly or lower the max entries back to the old way where every contest was 10 max.

    Over the next couple weeks, I think I’m going to be testing the waters at FD a little more.

  • frugal

    @superjon said...

    Would have been nice if we could have had a 4-6 game slate after yesterday.

    5 to 9 is the sweet spot for me. On big slates like tonight, I tend to cross out games until I get things into that range to limit the amount of stuff I need to look at.

  • dominicanpapi

    Wouldn’t be shocked if Lillard sat tonight. He was gimpy late in the game last night and the TNT announcers mentioned he had some sort of hip issue.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2019 Blogger of the Month

    @winnerchickendinner said...

    Magic players going to be heavy chalk. Wonder how many is too many and if Ross will play.

    Their prices are very competitive IMO. I know they’re depleted (possibly only 8 bodies if Ross sits), but how much confidence do you really have in any of these guys really giving you great value? Yes, they’ll get increased usage, shots, and so on, but bad players are bad players.

    On FD at first glance I’ll probably consider Birch, Ross (if he plays), Ennis, and MCW. I haven’t even looked at the rest of he slate, to compare these guys and put them into context. Looking at ORL player prices was my first interest and thing I wanted to look at. As of right now though, I feel like I could fade all these guys and not be worried, at all.

    On DK, Birch is the only one that really looks like value, and I might consider Ross as well if he plays.

    I see a lot of 6x type returns on these guys, and on a big 11 game slate, that’s not going to cut it.

    This might be an absolutely terrible take though.

  • frugal

    Oh and in continuation to my learning post, why am I talking about min cash? Because despite the lower percentage of entries which double money compared to a double up or 50/50, it is easier to cash in a multi-entry tourney due to the amount of hedge entries people enter shooting for the top prize. I do not build cash lineups, simply the best lineup I can (and 9 other variants) and enter these contests.

  • Yukerboy

    • Blogger of the Month

    Bkn@Det – Believe it or not, if all things were even, I would have Detroit actually favored by a half point. However, Detroit is returning from the road and playing the front end of a back to back while Brooklyn is hitting that sweet 3rd road game in a row and all those signs point to a Brooklyn win, so I’m not touching this one. The only player I have any interest in here is Harden and he’s my #1 target, locked in on all lineups. Harden is coming off two days rest which has proven to give players a boost compared to 0 or 1 days rest, though 3 days actually works against a player. Detroit shows up as pretty good in all defensive categories except for giving up blocks and steals and Harden gets steals which is a snowball stat. I’m projecting him for an outright 60 burger and a ceiling of 80-85, falling one board short of a triple double.

    Pho@Tor – No B2Bs to worry about here and Phoenix is also hitting that sweet third consecutive road game. I have Phoenix covering the spread, but not my lock of the night. No team gives up more blocks or Free Throws, which makes Ayton a solid low owned high leverage play. I expected value to open up on the Toronto side, but I’m just not seeing it. I’ll have some of the big three for Toronto, but I expect to be less than the field. I do have Bridges over 5x and will be much heavier on him than the field.

    Bos@Mil – Both teams are hitting the front end of a B2B and Boston is playing it’s third consecutive road game while Milwaukee’s on its 4th consecutive home game. All in all, those factors slightly favor Milwaukee who I already have covering the spread, so I’ll definitely be on that. I’m showing Giannis as a point below Harden with a lower ceiling, but still my #2 value with 5x+3. I have nobody else here at 5x and I expect Time Lord’s ownership to be inflated enough to where I’ll probably have him as a complete fade.

    Mia@Cha – Miami is on the back end of a B2B on the road in the first of a three game road trip. Literally all negative factors. Charlotte is opening a 2 game home stand and no B2Bs to worry about. Even without these factors, I had Charlotte winning by 3 and that is assuming Butler plays. For the life of me, I can’t figure out what Vegas is seeing that I’m not to have Miami favored in this one. The only thing I can figure is they are overrating the loss of LaMelo and also figuring Miami won’t lose a 6th straight. It’s my lock of the night as when I disagree with Vegas so hard, I am all over that Charlotte moneyline. Butler is my #3 behind Harden and Giannis, and I’ll be on Bam and Ariza as they were my locks last night. I am also showing that Nunn will have a decent game. No one else really catching my attention here as it looks like everyone from Charlotte is just a tad overpriced to go along with Miami’s defense, though that didn’t stop Portland last night.

    Por@Orl – All things being equal, I have Portland as a TWENTY TWO point favorite. TWO TWO! However, Portland is on the back end of a back to back on the road to go along with Orlando hitting that sweet 3rd consecutive home game. Those factors alone take me from Portland easily covering as my lock of the night to not even touching this game straight up, though I will a have a piece of Portland covering on a parlay. I couldn’t wait to jump on Captain Ross, but his price is overwhelming. No way I touch him tonight. I will have some MCW and if Nurkic has a 25 minute limit, I’ll be jumping on that bandwagon too.

    Hou@Min – Minnesota opens up a 3rd consecutive home game with a B2B at home while Houston is on the front end of a B2B on the road with this being their first game on the road trip. I already had Minnesota as 3.5 point favorites and Vegas agrees, but I’ll be throwing that -155 Minnesota moneyline into some parlays to fatten up those odds. I have nobody here at 5x and with the openers of a B2B for both teams, I have little interest in this game as I expect the under on that 226. Æ and Towns finally went from so underrated they’re overrated and the prices have caught up to both of them. There’s just no leverage and no value here. My highest owned player may be Naz Reid as a one off.

    Den@NO – I have this as the highest O/U of the night and Joker is in a nice spot as my #4 behind Harden, Giannis, and Butler. Denver is playing that sweet third consecutive road game while New Orleans is playing the front end of a B2B. With all the Pelicans having that sweet two days rest, I won’t be touching that line here, but will have some of the over. I think the trade one team made and one the other team didn’t make have caused immature players like MPJ and Bledsoe to become disgruntled, but I can’t quantify that. Denver is terrible at giving up offensive boards and Steven Adams is one of the best in the game at it, making him one of my favorite low owned high leverage plays. Meanwhile, no one suffers more blocks on the inside than the Pelicans and that plays right into, of all people, Millsap’s hands.

    Ind@Dal – I had Dal right at -4.5 with Vegas. Indianapolis is playing the first game of a road trip and Dalls is on the front end of a back to back at home, playing a home game after a 3 game road trip and upcoming 5 game road trip. Everyone of these are negative factors, which cancel each other out. The only player I have at 5x here is Brogdon, but I don’t think playing beside LeVert is fully factored in. Very little interest in this game overall.

    Mem@Uta – Memphis opens up a B2B on the road in their second consecutive road game while Utah opens a B2B at home in their 2nd consecutive home game, so again, non factors. I do have Utah only favored by 7 but not enough interest here to touch that line. The only person of interest to me in this game is Kyle Anderson who I expect to be a low owned high leverage play, but nobody else here at 5x. Again, little interest in this game overall.

    Atl@GS – Atlanta is playing their fourth consecutive road game which is a great spot while GS is returning home for the back end of a B2B, which all points to Atlanta winning. I already had Atlanta favored by 8.5 and with the factors mentioned, I’ll have some of Atlanta covering the 7 point spread. Jordan Poole is still one of my top plays and my top DKP/$ play tonight. Also loving Capela in this spot as a massive offensive rebounder against one of the worst in the league. I’ll also be higher than most on Defensive God Dray Green as he comes off that sweet two day rest spot. I think Wiseman’s disappointing performance yesterday opens up a low owned high leverage play and not sure how high ownership on Trae will be and I like him in this spot too as a high leverage high priced play.

    Cle@LAL – If the Lakers are proving anything, it’s that LeBron truly is the MVP by showing how bad they are with him out. Add in the fact that the Lakers are playing the back end of a B2B at home while Cleveland is opening a B2B on the road and I’m loving Cleveland in this spot. I’ve got Harrell smashing whatever clown is backing up Allen and also decent against Allen himself. Loving Sexton in this spot and he’s coming off three days rest, which normally harms a player more than helps, but with the cross country road trip, I’m willing to overlook it. You know that Spiderman meme where the two point at each other, realizing they’re the same thing? Here we are. Lakers without Lebron are Cleveland with worse defense. Give me Cleveland to win at +148 as Vegas and DFS continue to overrate the Laker D.

    Good luck tonight!

  • frugal

    Onto tonight slate, first impressions:

    Robert Williams finally going to crack 30 minutes?
    HOU/MIN perhaps stackable
    ORL…man I just don’t know. Will need to look at salary there, but feels like they won’t hit 70.
    Dragic already ruled out, Butler Q, probably end up going back to MIA guards.
    Luka bounce back
    ATL/GS may be the stack of the night.

  • superjon

    @Yukerboy said...

    If the Lakers are proving anything, it’s that LeBron truly is the MVP by showing how bad they are with him out.

    Wait till you see the Magic without Vuc :)

  • NarrowJ

    Magic without Vuc/Gordon/Fournier is going to be a blood bath like that UTA/BKN game with no Harden/Kyrie/KD where literally nobody that’s on our radar hits value and then some no-name G League scrub that nobody rosters will get 28 minutes and score 40 fp. I can’t play anyone on ORL with any confidence after Joe Harris got me a cool ZERO after playing 5 minutes and then deciding he’s done for the night. They’re also priced up on DK, so nah.

  • winnerchickendinner

    @Pandamonious said...

    Their prices are very competitive IMO. I know they’re depleted (possibly only 8 bodies if Ross sits), but how much confidence do you really have in any of these guys really giving you great value? Yes, they’ll get increased usage, shots, and so on, but bad players are bad players.

    On FD at first glance I’ll probably consider Birch, Ross (if he plays), Ennis, and MCW. I haven’t even looked at the rest of he slate, to compare these guys and put them into context. Looking at ORL player prices was my first interest and thing I wanted to look at. As of right now though, I feel like I could fade all these guys and not be worried, at all.

    On DK, Birch is the only one that really looks like value, and I might consider Ross as well if he plays.

    I see a lot of 6x type returns on these guys, and on a big 11 game slate, that’s not going to cut it.

    This might be an absolutely terrible take though.

    Yeah I can see what you’re saying. May consider Bamba and Bacon in a lineup if Ross sits.

  • tmarohl

    @theIrrigator said...

    Y’all think we can fill a 75 man contest? Wish it didn’t jump from 50 to 75

    Doubtful. Damion said he would like to pay the top three places last night with his donation.

  • Brendan239

    OG 🔒

  • tmarohl

    Celtics Bench

  • Yukerboy

    • Blogger of the Month

    I have Portland favored by 26.5 now.
    26.5

  • Yukerboy

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Yukerboy said...

    I have Portland favored by 26.5 now.
    26.5

    I took McCollum, Lillard, and Covington down to 27 minutes and gave Elleby and Blevins garbage time along with an uptick to Simons and Little.
    Still at 22.5

  • tmarohl

    FantasyLabs NBA
    @FantasyLabsNBA
    ·
    27m
    Terrence Ross (knee) unlikely to play Friday.

  • tmarohl

    FantasyLabs NBA
    @FantasyLabsNBA
    ·
    7m
    Griffin: Lonzo Ball (hip) not expected to play next 2 games.

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