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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    7:00 PM EST : Detroit ( 7.5 ) at Toronto ( -7.5 ) —- T: 215.5
    7:00 PM EST : Indiana ( -5.5 ) at Cleveland ( 5.5 ) —- T: 216
    7:00 PM EST : Utah ( -3 ) at Philadelphia ( 3 ) —- T: —
    7:30 PM EST : Brooklyn ( -7 ) at Houston ( 7 ) —- T: —
    8:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( -4 ) at Orlando ( 4 ) —- T: 225
    8:00 PM EST : Charlotte ( -0.5 ) at Minnesota ( 0.5 ) —- T: —
    8:00 PM EST : Chicago ( 5.5 ) at New Orleans ( -5.5 ) —- T: 237.5
    8:30 PM EST : Okla City ( 6 ) at Dallas ( -6 ) —- T: 223.5
    10:00 PM EST : Golden State ( -1 ) at Portland ( 1 ) —- T: 235.5
    10:00 PM EST : LA Lakers ( 3.5 ) at Sacramento ( -3.5 ) —- T: —

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s NBA thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • gaelicgirl

    @feekdogg said...

    There are going to be a ton of duplicate lineups on the After Hours. The only way to come close to spending all the money is to pay up at PG.

    That’s fine. I’m just trying to cash here.

  • Pidinolo

    @feekdogg said...

    There are going to be a ton of duplicate lineups on the After Hours. The only way to come close to spending all the money is to pay up at PG.

    I just made a viable lineup in 2 minutes that doesn’t top out higher than dray mid 7 k and low ends kcp at 3700. No pg higher then schroeder. It’s doable, it’s viable, and it’s not going to be as hard as one might think to make a non replicated lineup without the high end guards. Will it win ? Yes, it will, and I have the hidden location to big foots lair also available for a small fee, pm for details.

  • Herf

    How many mins will Jared Dudley play tonight for the Lakeshow? Maybe he can get hot beyond the arc and get some more mins thrown his way.

  • Brendan239

    Jarrett Allen 70 burger now

  • Herf

    @Brendan239 said...

    Jarrett Allen 70 burger now

    My take on Allen: I think that he will be trying to guard Myles Turner, who will bring him out of the paint to the 3 point line most of the game. If he is spread out chasing Turner around then his rebounds may be down a bit and we all know he isn’t really an offensive juggernaut so I think it actually decreases his value… and for $8,700 on DK I think I can definitely go with Kanter or someone like that for a discounted rate for a similar result.

    Now I say that, he will probably break a record for rebounds tonight.

  • charara1224

    Debating taking another shot at justin patton 3800 fd

  • Brendan239

    I kinda like Clayton/Stewart over Boucher/X on FD. Throw in 2 of Tor/LA and the rest being studs.

  • choppadown

    Didn’t cash anything last night, tonight looks like a mess.

    Think I’m paying up at center on FD, VUC looks like a lock with Capela possibly out.

  • captainwacky

    @Herf said...

    How many mins will Jared Dudley play tonight for the Lakeshow? Maybe he can get hot beyond the arc and get some more mins thrown his way.

    It’s about to be the Damian Jones show. He was playing like his hair was on fire for a few minutes, and if the lakers don’t play Kuz/Caruso I’m going 100 percent THT/Jones.

  • frugal

    @Brendan239 said...

    I think tonight is one of those pre season type slates where you do your best job of who will exceed value regardless of price. Schroeder, Bembry, Davis, Bey, Stewart, DAJ, Clayton etc could put up 40-50 points because of their minutes/opportunity.

    For some teams for sure. However, there are teams playing tonight which can’t really afford to blow off a game. Dallas for example had that long losing streak due to COVID and is just barely above .500. Pacers on a 4 game losing streak in 9th? They’re going to play to win regardless of Sabonis in or out. Pelicans and Hawks one spot out of the10 spot and the opportunity to play into the playoffs. They’re playing to win.

  • charara1224

    Frugal what you think of THJ at 4300 on fd?

  • bdf

    @biga0787 said...

    FanDuel peeps watch out for the $1 mlb super satellite. Yesterday they posted a 3000 ticket contest and it didn’t even half fill. Easy way to accumulate 25 tickets.

    It’s at like 1000 of 14000 entires right now with two hours to tip.

  • Your playing with 🔥🔥🔥 if you fade this man

  • telestraightshooter

    LbJ is out – is TH-T in?

  • telestraightshooter

    @billythekidcowboysheat said...

    Your playing with 🔥🔥🔥 if you fade this man

    how many pts can he fetch in 3 qtrs?

  • callmetouch

    @telestraightshooter said...

    how many pts can he fetch in 3 qtrs?

    How many he wants

  • Brendan239

    Coby White is a great low owned play tonight. He’ll Chuck 10 3 pointers and could 9x while all the value below him puts up 35.

  • biga0787

    @bdf said...

    It’s at like 1000 of 14000 entires right now with two hours to tip.

    Yeah. It’s a good spot to get some tickets for cheap

  • charara1224

    Josh jackson and Jerami Grant out for Detroit. Thats a lot of shots and usage up in the air now in detroit

  • frugal

    Been busy yet again today but just got a chance to run some preliminary numbers adjusting for some players out.

    DAL and TOR

    I find it hard not to lock in Brunson and Powell 100%. I think both teams will be playing to win tonight and those guys are going to be soaking up usage.

    Burke for the Mavs might be a sneaky value spot as he’s likely going to play ~20 minutes in Brunson’s roll off the bench. I’ll have some KP as a Mavs homer but I’m not sure he’s really going to benefit with Brunson running point where I think the Mavs play more transition offense vs the Luka led half court offense and I question whether KP would do much in transition outside the occasional trailing 3. That said, Luka rebounds have to go somewhere and KP and Kleber should both see a few more. For TOR I think Yuta is probably the sneaky value here. On a smaller slate I’d probably lock in Boucher, need to look at things more.

    LAL..Talen looks like a lock, maybe some Morris but I don’t like taking older players on B2Bs.

    My numbers have the following guys as the best DK PPD values on the slate:

    Horton-Tucker (presumed start), Ty Jerome, Trey Burke, Markieff Morris, and Tim Hardaway Jr.

    Top FP:

    Harden, Young, Curry, Towns, Shai.

  • zombiekopitar

    @charara1224 said...

    Josh jackson and Jerami Grant out for Detroit. Thats a lot of shots and usage up in the air now in detroit

    can they just cancel this game pls

  • charara1224

    @zombiekopitar said...

    can they just cancel this game pls

    It would definitely make this slate much easier lol

  • telestraightshooter

    With all these starters tapping out….
    …. I smell the nba allStar break around the corner.

    Almost as scrubby as last game of year?

  • ASalvaro

    thanks to the Detroit news my lineups are now complete and i kinda like them :)

  • Yukerboy

    • Blogger of the Month

    Right now, I’m assuming the only questionables sitting are Sabonis, Capela, and Oubre

    Det@Tor – The value here is tremendous with the O/U also being the lowest of the night. I do have this with a 55% chance of a blowout, but Detroit is down to 8 players by my count and Saban/DSJ are 48 minutes combined in every game so far since DSJ became the starter. I have DSJ as easily the #1 value on this slate unless Sabonis is out AND Lamb starts. The only thing that would scare me off him is the blowout probably makes it more of a 24/24 split with Saban rather than the 30/18 I’m expecting. I’ll be extremely high on Bey, but Boucher’s and Lowry’s ownership projects to be so high that they will be one offs for me rather than a target. Bembry, Plumlee and Stewart will see me on them more than most.

    Uta@Phi – The top of the East and the top of the West take center stage tonight. Very little value to be had here and other than some one offs, I’ll have little here with my most owned player being Harris as he continues to be slightly underpriced from the $7600 I figure he should be around. I do expect the Jazz to easily cover here and with the potential for the blowout from either team being the second highest of the slate and the higher ownership on Embiid, I’m finding very little to like.

    Ind@Cle – I’m assuming Sabonis is going to be out and I am figuring McD goes to the 4, Holiday to the 3 and Lamb starts at the 2. I have been really impressed with the defensive tenacity Okoro brings and expect Holiday to struggle, but I’ll be heavier than the field on the rest of the Indy starters. Indy is favored by 5 and on a four game losing streak so something has to break. Add in the fact that Cleveland is on a 4 game winning streak where coincidentally, Wade has now started four games in a row, and I’m certainly taking Indy to win. On the Cleveland side, I’ll be under the field on everyone.

    Bkn@Hou – I have this at a 119% chance of a blowout. Don’t ask where the extra 19% came from, but I have it locked in. Even with the blowout, Patton will be one of my top owned centers on the slate to go along with Claxton and Jordan on the Brooklyn side. With the expected ownership on Harden, I’ll probably completely fade him and hope for the best. I’m looking at very little else here because both the value not being there and the ownership being too high, but Patton will definitely be a mainstay in my lineups. I took Brooklyn alternate lines at -16.5 for +210.

    Cha@Min – Charlotte playing a 3 in 4 on the road is rough, but Minnesota has given up an average of well over 120 per game since Finch took over. However, with the rough road schedule, the heavier pricing on all the Hornets and the third most likely game to become a blowout, I’ll be under the field on all of Charlotte. I will be heavier on Towns than the field as well as Rubio as a high leverage decent ceiling play.

    Chi@NOP – The highest O/U of the night in a game I have being a lot closer than the second largest spread of the night puts me on high leverage overpriced plays and Zach Lavine is the perfect guy to fit the bill. If anyone told me Lavine would be priced at 9800 at any point this season, I would have laughed at them. I do think that Ingram is underpriced, but I think the field will feel the same way and finding themselves landing on him more than they want to, which will reduce my ownership on him. I’ll have Zion lower than the field, but he’s not a complete fade. Lonzo’s ceiling tonight is high, but he’s also coming off a monster. I have been finding that recency bias works in reverse on guys that blow up for no reason though and with his ownership to be around 2-3%, I’ll be heavier than the field on him as a high ceiling, high leverage play.

    Orl@Atl – I would normally love Trae Young in this spot, but if there was any question about Nate McMillan’s propensity for a slower paced defensive game, they were answered in last night’s Mia/Atl game with 146 FGA between both teams with Huerter being the only player taking 13 shots in the game. However, Trae’s ownership along with his high ceiling makes him a leverage play for me today and I’ll be much heavier than the field on him. I think he’s been making an effort to get the others more involved, leading to an uptick in assists and this could be a spot where he feels a need to carry more with Capela being questionable. With Fournier out, I’m seeing Vuc getting more usage than normal and he’ll probably be my third most owned Center after Patton and Horford, but I say this with the caveat that the pace is going to be limited and I’m extremely comfortable taking the under on that 218.5 O/U

    OKC@Dal – Lots to like here and I see projected ownerships being depressed with all the value/high ceilings elsewhere. I’ll be higher than the field on all of the Mavs starters and Horford along with THJ. SGA will be overowned and I like him, but he’ll be a one off for me. With this game being the third least likely to become a blowout, I have it as being closer than the current 4.5 line and I am definitely on the over.

    LAL@Sac – Kuzma and Fox are both looking to be drastically underowned in this spot and I’m on both pretty heavy. Schroeder’s ownership will be skyrocketing and he may be the #1 owned guy on the slate. His ceiling to me is not worth fighting with the field for what I am projecting to be the third lowest paced game of the night. I’ll have some for sure, but nowhere near the 50%+ I expect the field to be on him. This is all about Kuzma and Fox for me with the rest of the plays being one offs compared to the field.

    GSW@Por – It’s not too often I have a game projected for only a 1% chance of a blowout, but this is one of those. Along with having an O/U over 230, the high prices, the low ownership I expect, and the higher ceilings, I will have a lot of Curry/Lillard/Kanter/Green and…Wiseman. Oubre playing will obviously take some of the shine on Curry and Green away, but I’m happy to spend up here on limited ownership/high ceiling guys.

    GL all.

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