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  • bhdevault

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  • BerkeleyBoss

    @Ezekielx said...

    All you guys and your models and projection systems. Do you have an actual +/- %, over the times used, and how close you actually did get for variance?

    Say what?

  • Pandamonious

    • 869

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    @Benf15harp said...

    You should care. People take your advice seriously and put money behind it. Everybody on here gets crap and it’s all In good fun. I consider most of us to be friends on here at some level and what do friends do…..help each other out and give each other crap. There’s no reason not to throw a few stacks at this game in case it goes off.

    Here’s the thing. I fully understand and realize that what I say on here carries weight with some folks. Them shiny badges under the avatar mean something to some. It shows some level of success. It says, maybe this guy knows what he’s doing. Hmm..He likes Tatum maybe I should, he might know more than me, I’m going to play Tatum.

    I 100% believe everything I post in here. Unless it’s obvious I’m being sarcastic i mean it. What someone does with that opinion is up to them. I’m just another poster here. RG isn’t paying me for my opinion. I’m not behind the paywall. I’m free. I’m no different than anyone else here. I give my opinions to kick up some debate. I give my opinion to hear other peoples thoughts on it to see if they can sway me. I give my opinion when I think it might help someone. No I will not always be right.

    When someone makes a line up those are there decisions. If I said play Mr. X and Mr. X sucked that’s still their decision. If I say play Mr. X and Mr. X went nuts and crushed that was still their decision.

    So my point is I don’t care whether someone takes my advice or not. That’s their decision. I do care in the sense that when I give my opinion it’s in good intentions and mean well when I do.

  • Donnyleonard

    @jjpk said...

    hope Shump and Faried are out again. I really want to plug in Eric Gordon at 4800.

    I play on FD but the same here! I think he could be the guy who the Raps leave open tonight. Tucker revenge night lol?

  • jess701

    I never sat down and tried to figure it out but what percent of all of us that are in the forum and say people who just belong and dont participate is to the whole feild of a say large gpp contest on DK or FD?

  • Benf15harp

    @jess701 said...

    I would of laughed harder if that table would of broke, Looks like something I would of done on the 90,s

    LOL

  • jjpk

    @Donnyleonard said...

    I play on FD but the same here! I think he could be the guy who the Raps leave open tonight. Tucker revenge night lol?

    I don’t mind the Tucker play. When Harden and Paul are passing well, they find PJ, Gordon and G. Green for easy looks at the 3-point line.

    And Tucker can rack up a handful of steals/blocks to make value when he’s active on D.

  • mbunner23

    @jess701 said...

    I never sat down and tried to figure it out but what percent of all of us that are in the forum and say people who just belong and dont participate is to the whole feild of a say large gpp contest on DK or FD?

    huh

  • raul214

    Noah or Caboclo from that Memphis team GPP.

  • Kmasonbx

    @Ezekielx said...

    All you guys and your models and projection systems. Do you have an actual +/- %, over the times used, and how close you actually did get for variance?

    I have a full time job, play poker, and have a girlfriend that I live with so unfortunately I don’t as much time as I’d like to check my results. Although when I have my projections have been within 1 standard deviation of my projection 68% (with projected minutes) and 72% (with actual minutes). The rule is your result should be within 1 standard deviation 68% of the time, so right now I’m seeing standard results for my projections and would be a bit better than standard if I could nail down the minutes better.

  • Pandamonious

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    @jess701 said...

    I never sat down and tried to figure it out but what percent of all of us that are in the forum and say people who just belong and dont participate is to the whole feild of a say large gpp contest on DK or FD?

    I’m willing to bet there’s way more people who read this forum daily then actually post in it. What % of people play on DK or FD that read this forum I have zero idea.

  • Benf15harp

    @Pandamonious said...

    Here’s the thing. I fully understand and realize that what I say on here carries weight with some folks. Them shiny badges under the avatar mean something to some. It shows some level of success. It says, maybe this guy knows what he’s doing. Hmm..He likes Tatum maybe I should, he might know more than me, I’m going to play Tatum.

    I 100% believe everything I post in here. Unless it’s obvious I’m being sarcastic i mean it. What someone does with that opinion is up to them. I’m just another poster here. RG isn’t paying me for my opinion. I’m not behind the paywall. I’m free. I’m no different than anyone else here. I give my opinions to kick up some debate. I give my opinion to hear other peoples thoughts on it to see if they can sway me. I give my opinion when I think it might help someone. No I will not always be right.

    When someone makes a line up those are there decisions. If I said play Mr. X and Mr. X sucked that’s still their decision. If I say play Mr. X and Mr. X went nuts and crushed that was still their decision.

    So my point is I don’t care whether someone takes my advice or not. That’s their decision. I do care in the sense that when I give my opinion it’s in good intentions and mean well when I do.

    The last sentence was all I needed.

  • jess701

    @mbunner23 said...

    huh

    What I am saying is all the members here in rotogrinders forum is what % of a large turny in NBA contest you know not everyone is a roto guy!

  • mbunner23

    @jess701 said...

    What I am saying is all the members here in rotogrinders forum is what % of a large turny in NBA contest you know not everyone is a roto guy!

    3.5%

  • jess701

    But whatever just was thinking no big whoop!

  • Ezekielx

    @BerkeleyBoss said...

    Say what?

    Step 1. Project player points
    Step 2. Review projected vs actual
    Step 3. Determine how close the projections actually are and see if you can actually rely on the projected numbers over a period of time……

    Otherwise, you can make projections all day, but if your numbers are usually +/-25% from actual (for example), it may not be of any value to you and hurting your chances of picking proper players.

    You would then want to improve and try to find something / a method, with a lower variance to increase your chances at success.

  • jess701

    @mbunner23 said...

    3.5%

    Thanks!

  • jjpk

    @mbunner23 said...

    3.5%

  • jess701

  • mbunner23

    @jess701 said...

    Thanks!

    That’s just a sarcastic guess. I would imagine the percent is lower than you’d think.

  • Donnyleonard

    Well with all this debate on the Celtics I’m guessing that means Boogie will go off tonight lol? Also is everyone fading KAT tonight? Adams looking strong again and going to slow him down even though KAT’s been fire lately.

  • frugal

    @Ezekielx said...

    Step 1. Project player points
    Step 2. Review projected vs actual
    Step 3. Determine how close the projections actually are and see if you can actually rely on the projected numbers over a period of time……

    Otherwise, you can make projections all day, but if your numbers are usually +/-25% from actual (for example), it may not be of any value to you and hurting your chances of picking proper players.

    You would then want to improve and try to find something / a method, with a lower variance to increase your chances at success.

    I’ve randomly sampled my projections on different dates and have been satisfied with the accuracy to continue using. I know where the hole are in my calculations but just haven’t had either the time or the correct data source to fix them so I still have to look at some a few things the old fashioned way to validate a few things. I’ve been profitable the last couple seasons but this season I’m probably closer to break even.

  • frugal

    @Donnyleonard said...

    Well with all this debate on the Celtics I’m guessing that means Boogie will go off tonight lol? Also is everyone fading KAT tonight? Adams looking strong again and going to slow him down even though KAT’s been fire lately.

    KAT has sucked vs OKC the 2 times they played, like Vuc much better toinight.

  • Petergunz82

    @Pandamonious said...

    I don’t hate Vuc the player. Vuc used to be this guy that everyone said was underrated in DFS. That grew and grew. To now he’s probably one of the most overrated players in DFS. I don’t know what it is. Usually whenever he gets mentioned here I cringe. I never faded him and really regretted it. I never played him and was thankful I did. He usually either under performs or just well enough that your not upset you had him. The once in a blue moon really pops for 60+. If I had the time I’d go through every slate and see how many times he’s been in a top 10 line up in a large field GPP this season and if I did I’m guessing the amount of times is very, very low.

    What it comes down to is he’s usually more of a cash game play. You and I are strictly GPP

  • jcotdl

    Settled into a bunch of PG, Kawhi, Simmons stacks and hope a couple red letters keep ownership in check. Which is great, because i have a very distinct risk of being completely screwed if both sit.

  • jess701

    Well was just curious if it mattered when we give out all these players names preditctions on players if we are helping others out that dont contribute and work with the sharks!

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