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  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    7:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( -9 ) at Cleveland ( 9 ) — T: 214
    7:00 PM EST : Washington ( ) at Detroit ( ) — T:
    7:30 PM EST : Charlotte ( ) at Brooklyn ( ) — T:
    8:00 PM EST : Orlando ( 10.5 ) at New Orleans ( -10.5 ) — T: 223
    8:00 PM EST : Golden State ( 2 ) at Miami ( -2 ) — T: 219.5
    8:30 PM EST : Atlanta ( ) at San Antonio ( ) — T:
    10:00 PM EST : Denver ( ) at LA Clippers ( ) — T:

    RG FORUM DRAFTKINGS LEAGUE

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  • Yukerboy

    • Blogger of the Month

    Phi@Cle – You have Cleveland returning home from a four game road trip before going on the road for the next three. Meanwhile, Philly wraps up a 6 game road trip. Unleashing my new Timezone analysis, I also see that Cleveland and Philly are both playing their first game in the Eastern Time Zone. Returning home in the east from a two hour difference is the absolute worst circumstance a team could be in. The home team loses 58% of the time and more than half those losses are by 15+ points. Meanwhile, Philly is playing that sweet 5th consecutive road game where visitors win 5% more than they normally would. That’s nice, but here’s the kicker…Philly is also returning to the eastern timezone from the mountain timezone. Teams that are on the road AND travel east 2 timezones win 49% more than the average road team AND are 7-3 in games decided by 15+ points. The conditions are ripe for a Philly blowout at Cleveland. Now, you may say “Big deal. Philly’s favored by 7.5”. True, but I’m jumping on that -14.5 at +235 for my lock of the night. That’s right. A lock of the night on a more than 2:1 longshot. With that said, I love Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris early, but the blowout has me off them and looking towards the bench as cheap value options with Howard and Korkmaz topping my list, but with Cleveland getting killed on steals and steals being a snowball stat, I’ll have some fliers on Danny Green and Matisse Thybulle.

    Was@Det – Have a mixed bag here. Detroit is playing a B2B at home and their third consecutive home game which both are negative for Detroit while Washington opens a single game road trip here before heading back home for a game, which is also a negative for them. I’ve got Washington by 2.5, Vegas has Washington by 2.5. Just nothing here edge wise. Of course, Beal not playing changes things drastically, but Dennis Smith, Diallo, and Plumlee will have interest from me especially the last two as they show strong offensive rebounding ability and Washington is horrendous at giving up this snowball stat.

    Cha@Brk – Brooklyn is playing a B2B at home in their third straight home game and Charlotte is playing a Front end of a B2B on the road in their second consecutive home game. These factors clearly favopr Charlotte. Right now, without these factors I’m showing Brooklyn as a 2.5 point favorite, so if Brooklyn is favored by Vegas by 5 or more, I’ll be taking Charlotte to cover and may even jump on the moneyline in a parlay. I’ll be swallowing the chalk, taking the free space and locking Kyrie in, but the rest of Brooklyn will be so overowned that I won’t touch any of them. As for Charlotte, I am showing a massive game for Graham at 20-6-4 with 5 for 10 from 3s and will take that underowned play to the limit.

    Orl@NO – Remember when Orlando somehow, someway beat the streaking Clippers in LA? Hear me out here. New Orleans is playing the front end of a B2B at home which is a losing record and home teams actually do worse on the front end of a B2B than the back end. New Orleans is returning home east from a 1 hour time difference, which is a losing record. Orlando is playing their third consecutive road game and returns 2 hours east, just like Philly, which is the biggest advantage a team can have in all the factors I’ve looked at. I have New Orleans as a 17.5 point favorite without these factors, but Orlando’s moneyline at +430 is the one I want to play here. Add in Zion being questionable and ESPN’s Lopez saying Zion could be week to week rather than day to day and I’m jumping on it immediately before Zion is announced as out. If Zion is out, then starting or not, NeckTat is looking extremely sexy to me and I’ll be looking for the guaranteed minutes on Orlando, meaning Ross and Okeke. When Zion is announced as out, Ingram probably becomes chalk and he’s a complete fade for me, but I’ll be on Lonzo and Hart both.

    GS@Mia – Miami is playing a B2B at home which is overrated as bad and playing their first home game after wrapping up a 3 game road trip, which is a good thing. Meanwhile, Golden State travels through 3 timezones which is terrible and opens up a 3 game road trip, which is also bad. Did I mention they are also playing the Front end of a back to back? If all things were equal, I would have GS by 3.5, but they aren’t equal and that Miami favorite by 2 is enough to scare me away. Glassier making his debut kills any Miami value and I’m looking at Defensive Player of the Century Draymond Green and I have him 3 points short of a Triple Double, but he could decide to randomly gun one in from the logo to get it. Also, Miami is bad at giving up offensive rebounds and surprisingly, the best at it on Golden State is Kelly Oubre Jr. I have him with a usage than Wiggins in this game and am hoping to get him a ton at low ownership.

    Atl@SA – San Antonio is playing a B2B at home, which is not as bad as you would think and making their 7th consecutive home game is a sweet spot to be in. I only tracked 5 or more as the same and home teams are dominant when that happens. Meanwhile, Atlanta plays their 7th consecutive road game, plays the front end of a B2B on the road, and traveled East 1 hour to play a road game. The streak of road games is actually a positive, but the rest of it is bad. Very very bad. If all things were equal, I would have San Antonio by half a point, but I definitely am on San Antonio to cover the current 1.5 spread and with this the second most likely game to become a blowout, I’ll be playing that alternate line of 14.5 at +365. With no true 4s playing this game, I’m in love with Gallinari and I’ll have some of both Capela/Poeltl as both are looking at increased blocks and boards in this game, with Poeltl looking at an uptick in offensive boards.

    Den@LAC – The Clippers are playing their fourth consecutive home game which is a good thing. Denver plays their first road game before returning home for 5 which is bad. Denver also goes 1 hour west which is yet another bad factor. Down George, Bevs and Ibaka, I would normally have Denver as the 5 point favorite, but this isn’t normal. Vegas has the Clippers by 1 and I’m not arguing. I’ll take the cover on that. The pricing is tight here, but I will definitely have some Mann and little else. I was absolutely shocked by how good Denver is defensively at almost everything, but especially in shutting down shooting.

    Good luck tonight.

  • CharlieDontSurf

    Great stuff. Who is Necktat?

  • fleishmo6

    looks like plug in kyrie, westbrook and hartenstein chalk and go from there

  • dominicanpapi

    @fleishmo6 said...

    looks like plug in kyrie, westbrook and hartenstein chalk and go from there

    I’m expecting some shenanigans from the Nets tonight. I think Harden and Griffin sit.

    Edit: There’s like a 50/50 chance Kyrie sits too.

    Pels are on a B2B so it wouldn’t shock me if Ball was still held out and Zion sat this one.

  • jfitzgan

    Would anyone be shocked if kyrie sat on b2b due to personal reasons? He may need to prep for the Easter bunny coming to town.

  • dominicanpapi

    It’s crazy how a significant portion of the DFS community trades in their basketball shorts for baseball caps on Opening Day lol.

  • Brendan239

    What’s Young’s usage w Collins out?

  • Sleazygreazy

    • 281

      RG Overall Ranking

    @dominicanpapi said...

    It’s crazy how a significant portion of the DFS community trades in their basketball shorts for baseball caps on Opening Day lol.

    NBA has been tough this year for a lot of reasons, draining patience and bankrolls. Also, golf today. I’m thinking NBA contests will be getting smaller and smaller

  • theIrrigator

    • 852

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #28

      RG Tiered Ranking

    James Harden (hamstring) ruled out Thursday. https://t.co/U1yJ2ZcXMy

  • mbunner23

    Baseball has this thread slowwwwww. DK contests also way down…

  • theIrrigator

    • 852

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    • Ranked #28

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    Blake Griffin (injury management) ruled out Thursday. https://t.co/cLsgrM0wMm

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    I’m guessing the NBA thread will be a bit more active after MLB locks on DK at 2 EST. I don’t think many are just going to stop playing NBA entirely.

  • tmarohl

    I threw a few MLB lineups in, but I don’t like it.

  • tmarohl

    @dominicanpapi said...

    I’m expecting some shenanigans from the Nets tonight. I think Harden and Griffin sit.

    Edit: There’s like a 50/50 chance Kyrie sits too.

    Pels are on a B2B so it wouldn’t shock me if Ball was still held out and Zion sat this one.

    I think Zion will miss a couple games.

  • theIrrigator

    • 852

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    • Ranked #28

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Status note: LaMarcus Aldridge available to make Nets debut Thursday.

  • Brendan239

    I think whoever fills the Zion minutes/usage has a big game against these Magicisns but I couldn’t guess who. Ingram? I still like Heyward more. Joe Johnson gonna play?

  • theIrrigator

    • 852

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    • Ranked #28

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    Joe Johnson? Lol. I had to think about it for a second as to who you were talking about. The Karate Kid

  • dominicanpapi

    @Brendan239 said...

    I think whoever fills the Zion minutes/usage has a big game against these Magicisns but I couldn’t guess who. Ingram? I still like Heyward more. Joe Johnson gonna play?

    If Zion and Ball are out: it’s Ingram, Hart, NAW, Bledsoe for me.

    If Ball is out: NAW/Hart

    If Zion is out: Ingram

    LMA playing will keep me away from the Nets big man rotation. The only viable options on the Nets tonight are Irving and Brown.

  • captainwacky

    I think Hart is the biggest beneficiary of all the injuries regardless for NO. Obviously Ingram and the rest of their offense gets some usage, but Hart gains minutes, rebounds, usage, etc.

  • theIrrigator

    • 852

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    • Ranked #28

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Hamidou Diallo (injury management) listed out Thursday. https://t.co/knTiTUUMtZ

    Status note: Sekou Doumbouya (migraine) listed probable Thursday.

  • Njsum1

    @fleishmo6 said...

    looks like plug in kyrie, westbrook and hartenstein chalk and go from there

    Not sure Kyrie is a lock at 9800. There are paths to him not getting there. But he’s a core play for sure

    And Hartenstein is nice, yet I like Capela and Purtle the Turtle and I can only play 2 centers, so I can’t lock him in either…but again, a core play 4sho

  • Brendan239

    Right now I’m going Kyrie/Young/Brown/Hutch/Hartenstein

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @Brendan239 said...

    Right now I’m going Kyrie/Young/Brown/Hutch/Hartenstein

    I would suggest trying to stop making Hutchinson a thing.

  • BerkeleyBoss

    I think I’m just gonna keep playing Howard. He’s gotta get 30 minutes eventually, no? He was on pace the other day, but Scott played the last 15 minutes straight.

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