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  • Pandamonious

    • Ranked #52

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    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    7:30 PM EST : Toronto ( ) at Cleveland ( ) — T:
    8:30 PM EST : LA Lakers ( 12.5 ) at Brooklyn ( -12.5 ) — T: 223.5
    9:00 PM EST : Sacramento ( 12.5 ) at Utah ( -12.5 ) — T: 231
    9:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( ) at Oklahoma City ( ) — T:
    10:00 PM EST : Washington ( ) at Phoenix ( ) — T:
    10:00 PM EST : Detroit ( ) at Portland ( ) — T:
    10:00 PM EST : Houston ( 9 ) at Golden State ( -9 ) — T: 228

    RG NBA DRAFTKINGS LEAGUE

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s NBA thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • miggs6876

    Lots of big spreads. I hate trying to figure out the blowout factor. Never seem to get it right.

  • Yukerboy

    • Blogger of the Month

    14-5 on locks. 7-1 last night, 3-3 the night before, 5-2 before that on all my other picks. My locks are doing almost as bad as my normal picks….pick your favorite and run with it. The one I missed last night (Philly) was my #2 favorite (and cost me $3,680 on a 9 leg $10 parlay, not to mention all my round robins where they were in 90% of them) and the bottom two I needed a gun to my head to make a choice both won. Go figure.

    Anyway, on to tonight and we have some big ass spreads to play with, opening a lot of moneyline potential.

    Tor@Cle – Toronto’s favored by 2.5 and I have Toronto by 1. Cleveland is playing the front end of a B2B at home, a massive negative, though Clevland is 2-2 in those and 9-11 in all other home games. Cleveland is also playing their first home game, a very slight positive, and Cleveland is 5-5 in those while 6-8 in all others. Finally, Cleveland is traveling an hour east, negative, and they are 1-2 in those and 10-11 in all other home games. Toronto is also playing the front end of a back to back on the road, a positive, and Toronto is 4-3 in those games and a paltry 5-15 in all other road games. Toronto is also playing their first road game, a negative, and Toronto is 3-8 in those games and 6-10 in all other road games. Toronto also has no time change, a slight negative, and Toronto is 5-10 in those and 4-8 in all others. All in all, I’m giving the edge to Toronto here. I do have this game as the least likely to blow out, so if Toronto covers, it won’t be by a whole lot. Remember that this all assumes Lowry plays. If Lowry doesn’t play, I have Cleveland by 1.5, with Toronto still having the scheduling edge. Gun to my head, Tornto covers, but really don’t like it. The only thing Toronto doesn’t give up is 2pt FG and steals and they are second worst at giving up offensive rebounds, putting me on Sexton, Kevin Love, and Dean Wade. Cleveland gives up bleals and little else. That makes O.G. Anunoby intriguing, especially if Lowry sits.

    LAL@Bkn – Brooklyn is favored by 11.5 and I have them by 9.5. However, I have the Lakers with a sizeable scheduling edge. Brooklyn’s playing their third straight hom game, slight negative, and Brooklyn is only 2-2 in those and 20-4 in all other home games. Brooklyn has no time zone change to worry about (slight positive, almost neutral), but Brooklyn is only 18-5 in those and 4-1 in all others. Meanwhile, the Lakers are playing their 5+ consecutive road game (sizeable positive) and the Lakers are 2-1 in those and 14-8 in all other road games. The Lakers have no time zone change, which should be a slight negative for the road team, and the Lakers are 9-5 in those and 7-4 in all other road games. I have this game with a less than average chance to blowout, so the big spread I’m just not seeing. I’m not making it my lock yet, but Lakers cover. Now, this is assuming both Kuzma and Caruso are good to go. If Kuzma’s out though, I still show the Lakers losing by 10.5, but that spread will jump even more than that and I would still be on the Lakers to cover. The Lakers give up rebounds and Bleals which benefits Kyrie Irving the most. Brooklyn gives up Offensive rebounds and FTs, benefiting both Kuzma and Drummond.

    Sac@Uta – Utah is favored by 12.5 and I have Utah only by 8. However, Utah has a massive scheduling edge. They are playing their second straight home game (slight positive) and Utah is 6-0 in those games and 17-2 in all others. Utah had no time zone change (slight positive) and they are 17-0 in those games and 6-2 in all others. Sacramento is playing their first road game (negative) and they are 4-6 in those and 6-9 in all others. They travel one hour east (negative) but they are 1-1 in those and 9-14 in all others. I don’t see Sacramento haviong a chance to pull off the upset, but again, gun to my head, I like the Kings to keep it close. Utah’s good at everything and all of Sacramento is a complete fade for me. Sacramento is actually good at defending all but scoring, so it’s looking like a Mitchell game again. Bojan Bogdanovich is also very scoring dependent and he’s not the 53-120 (44%) guy he’s been for the last 10 games. He’s due and this is the perfect spot for him to show that.

    Phi@OKC – Philly’s favored by 11.5 and I have them by 16.5. Philly burned me last night, but I hold no grudges. If Embiid is out, that line will jump more in OKC’s favor, but I still have Philly by 10.5. OKC is playing it’s fourth straight home game (slight positive) and OKC is 1-2 while 8-16 in all other home games. No time change should be close to neutral, but for OKC, it’s been a huge positive going 8-13 compared to 1-5 in all other home games. Meanwhile, Philly is playing a back to back on the road which is the second worst factor there is yet Philly is 3-2 in those games and 12-10 in all other road games. Philly is playing its third straight road game (negative), yet Philly is 2-1 in those while 13-11 in all other road games. Philly has no time change (negative) and Philly is 8-8 in those games and 7-4 in all others. So, here’s where I’m at. I have Philly covering, gun to my head, BUT I will also play a little of OKC to win outright at 5:1. Philly’s the big favorite, and they should be, but that B2B on the road is a huge factor. OKC gets killed on steals and boards, especially offensive boards. Benefits Embiid. Philly gives up the second most free throws and Moses Brown scores a third of his points from the charity stripe.

    Det@Por – Portland is favored by 11.5, but I have them by 8.5. Portland is playing the front end of a B2B at home (negative) but they are 4-1 in those and 11-9 in all other home games. Portland is playing its first home game (slight positive), but Portland is 4-5 in those and 11-5 in all others. Portland is retunring hom traveling west an hour. They haven’t done this yet, but home teams that do have a losing record at 26-28. Detroit is playing the front end of a back to back on the road (positive) and they are 3-3 in those compared to 4-18 in all other road games. Detroit is playing their fourth road game in a row (big positive) and Detroit is 1-2 in those and 6-19 in all others. Finally, Detroit has no time zone change from their last game (negative) and they are 4-12 in those games and 3-9 in all others. Detroit actually has a scheduling edge here in my opinion and with me having them +3 from the Vegas spread, I’m feeling good about them covering, enough to lock them in. Detroit only gives up Bleals which plays into Robert Covington hands. Portland is the worst and gets destroyed on boards and gives up scoring in all forms. Josh Jackson and Mason Plumlee will see plenty of my lineups.

    Was@Pho – Phoenix is favored by 11.5, but I only have them at 7.5. Scheduling edge is a mixed bag here. Suns are playing their first home game (Slight positive) and they are 7-3 compared to 12-5 in all other home games. They do travel one hour east here (slight negative) and are 2-1 compared to 17-7. Meanwhile Washington is playing a B2B on the road (huge negative) but Washington is 3-3 in those compared to 6-13 in all other road games. Washington is playing their fourth straight road game (huge positive) and Washington is 2-1 compared to 7-15 in those. Finally, Washington travels 1 hour east (negative) but Washington is 2-0 in those compared to 7-16 in all others. I think Washington’s reverse splits are an abberation rather than the norm, but I won’t discount them. Gun to my head, Washington covers in what I have as the second least likely game to become a blowout and I’ll even have some of Washington to win outright at +525. Washington gets killed on 2pt FG, FT, and Rebounds, especially offensively. Both Ayton and Booker are prime candidates for me. Phoenix literally does everything good. Washington will be a complete fade for me.

    Hou@GS – GS is favored by 9 and I have GS by 5.5. GS is playing a B2B at home (negative) and are 1-3 in those compared to 14-7 in all other home games. They are playing their third straight home game (negative) but are 3-0 in those compared to 12-10 in all other home games. No time change (slight positive) has them 10-8 compared to 5-2. Meanwhile, Houston is playing a B2B on the road (huge negative), but Houston is 3-2 in those compared to 4-17 in all other road games. Houston’s playing their second straight road game (positive) and Houston is 3-7 in those compared to 4-12 in all other road games. Houston also has no time zone change (slight negative) yet is 5-8 in those games and 2-11 in all others. I’m going to give Houston the edge here with the caveat that I do have this as the most likely game to see a blowout. Houston covers, but more gun to my head than lock. Houston gets destroyed on the boards and no one is worse at giving up steals. It’s Defensive God of the Century Dray Day. Golden State gives up offensive rebounds and steals. I was shocked to see how good Tate is at those. I’m thinking very few people will be on him, making me on him all the more.

    Detorit’s my lock, Feel good about Lakers covering, not feeling good about anything else, but I’ll take Sacramento, Toronto, Washington, Houston, and then Philly. Like the upside of OKC and Washington to pull off upsets.

    Good luck tonight!

  • Brendan239

    I guess Tatum was right. It’s either Kanter or Dwight at C on FD. Por and Sac heavy, CP3 or Booker, Stewart, Garland (?)

  • Brendan239

    Man, if you “punt” at SF, PF, and C on FD you can REALLY stack the Guards.

  • dominicanpapi

    Crazy that 5 of the 7 games have double digit spreads.

  • Brendan239

    Hard to get away from CP3/Mitchell/CJ/Stewart on early builds.

  • jayzee666

    @Yukerboy said...

    14-5 on locks. 7-1 last night, 3-3 the night before, 5-2 before that on all my other picks. My locks are doing almost as bad as my normal picks….pick your favorite and run with it. The one I missed last night (Philly) was my #2 favorite (and cost me $3,680 on a 9 leg $10 parlay, not to mention all my round robins where they were in 90% of them) and the bottom two I needed a gun to my head to make a choice both won. Go figure.

    Anyway, on to tonight and we have some big ass spreads to play with, opening a lot of moneyline potential.

    Tor@Cle – Toronto’s favored by 2.5 and I have Toronto by 1. Cleveland is playing the front end of a B2B at home, a massive negative, though Clevland is 2-2 in those and 9-11 in all other home games. Cleveland is also playing their first home game, a very slight positive, and Cleveland is 5-5 in those while 6-8 in all others. Finally, Cleveland is traveling an hour east, negative, and they are 1-2 in those and 10-11 in all other home games. Toronto is also playing the front end of a back to back on the road, a positive, and Toronto is 4-3 in those games and a paltry 5-15 in all other road games. Toronto is also playing their first road game, a negative, and Toronto is 3-8 in those games and 6-10 in all other road games. Toronto also has no time change, a slight negative, and Toronto is 5-10 in those and 4-8 in all others. All in all, I’m giving the edge to Toronto here. I do have this game as the least likely to blow out, so if Toronto covers, it won’t be by a whole lot. Remember that this all assumes Lowry plays. If Lowry doesn’t play, I have Cleveland by 1.5, with Toronto still having the scheduling edge. Gun to my head, Tornto covers, but really don’t like it. The only thing Toronto doesn’t give up is 2pt FG and steals and they are second worst at giving up offensive rebounds, putting me on Sexton, Kevin Love, and Dean Wade. Cleveland gives up bleals and little else. That makes O.G. Anunoby intriguing, especially if Lowry sits.

    LAL@Bkn – Brooklyn is favored by 11.5 and I have them by 9.5. However, I have the Lakers with a sizeable scheduling edge. Brooklyn’s playing their third straight hom game, slight negative, and Brooklyn is only 2-2 in those and 20-4 in all other home games. Brooklyn has no time zone change to worry about (slight positive, almost neutral), but Brooklyn is only 18-5 in those and 4-1 in all others. Meanwhile, the Lakers are playing their 5+ consecutive road game (sizeable positive) and the Lakers are 2-1 in those and 14-8 in all other road games. The Lakers have no time zone change, which should be a slight negative for the road team, and the Lakers are 9-5 in those and 7-4 in all other road games. I have this game with a less than average chance to blowout, so the big spread I’m just not seeing. I’m not making it my lock yet, but Lakers cover. Now, this is assuming both Kuzma and Caruso are good to go. If Kuzma’s out though, I still show the Lakers losing by 10.5, but that spread will jump even more than that and I would still be on the Lakers to cover. The Lakers give up rebounds and Bleals which benefits Kyrie Irving the most. Brooklyn gives up Offensive rebounds and FTs, benefiting both Kuzma and Drummond.

    Sac@Uta – Utah is favored by 12.5 and I have Utah only by 8. However, Utah has a massive scheduling edge. They are playing their second straight home game (slight positive) and Utah is 6-0 in those games and 17-2 in all others. Utah had no time zone change (slight positive) and they are 17-0 in those games and 6-2 in all others. Sacramento is playing their first road game (negative) and they are 4-6 in those and 6-9 in all others. They travel one hour east (negative) but they are 1-1 in those and 9-14 in all others. I don’t see Sacramento haviong a chance to pull off the upset, but again, gun to my head, I like the Kings to keep it close. Utah’s good at everything and all of Sacramento is a complete fade for me. Sacramento is actually good at defending all but scoring, so it’s looking like a Mitchell game again. Bojan Bogdanovich is also very scoring dependent and he’s not the 53-120 (44%) guy he’s been for the last 10 games. He’s due and this is the perfect spot for him to show that.

    Phi@OKC – Philly’s favored by 11.5 and I have them by 16.5. Philly burned me last night, but I hold no grudges. If Embiid is out, that line will jump more in OKC’s favor, but I still have Philly by 10.5. OKC is playing it’s fourth straight home game (slight positive) and OKC is 1-2 while 8-16 in all other home games. No time change should be close to neutral, but for OKC, it’s been a huge positive going 8-13 compared to 1-5 in all other home games. Meanwhile, Philly is playing a back to back on the road which is the second worst factor there is yet Philly is 3-2 in those games and 12-10 in all other road games. Philly is playing its third straight road game (negative), yet Philly is 2-1 in those while 13-11 in all other road games. Philly has no time change (negative) and Philly is 8-8 in those games and 7-4 in all others. So, here’s where I’m at. I have Philly covering, gun to my head, BUT I will also play a little of OKC to win outright at 5:1. Philly’s the big favorite, and they should be, but that B2B on the road is a huge factor. OKC gets killed on steals and boards, especially offensive boards. Benefits Embiid. Philly gives up the second most free throws and Moses Brown scores a third of his points from the charity stripe.

    Det@Por – Portland is favored by 11.5, but I have them by 8.5. Portland is playing the front end of a B2B at home (negative) but they are 4-1 in those and 11-9 in all other home games. Portland is playing its first home game (slight positive), but Portland is 4-5 in those and 11-5 in all others. Portland is retunring hom traveling west an hour. They haven’t done this yet, but home teams that do have a losing record at 26-28. Detroit is playing the front end of a back to back on the road (positive) and they are 3-3 in those compared to 4-18 in all other road games. Detroit is playing their fourth road game in a row (big positive) and Detroit is 1-2 in those and 6-19 in all others. Finally, Detroit has no time zone change from their last game (negative) and they are 4-12 in those games and 3-9 in all others. Detroit actually has a scheduling edge here in my opinion and with me having them +3 from the Vegas spread, I’m feeling good about them covering, enough to lock them in. Detroit only gives up Bleals which plays into Robert Covington hands. Portland is the worst and gets destroyed on boards and gives up scoring in all forms. Josh Jackson and Mason Plumlee will see plenty of my lineups.

    Was@Pho – Phoenix is favored by 11.5, but I only have them at 7.5. Scheduling edge is a mixed bag here. Suns are playing their first home game (Slight positive) and they are 7-3 compared to 12-5 in all other home games. They do travel one hour east here (slight negative) and are 2-1 compared to 17-7. Meanwhile Washington is playing a B2B on the road (huge negative) but Washington is 3-3 in those compared to 6-13 in all other road games. Washington is playing their fourth straight road game (huge positive) and Washington is 2-1 compared to 7-15 in those. Finally, Washington travels 1 hour east (negative) but Washington is 2-0 in those compared to 7-16 in all others. I think Washington’s reverse splits are an abberation rather than the norm, but I won’t discount them. Gun to my head, Washington covers in what I have as the second least likely game to become a blowout and I’ll even have some of Washington to win outright at +525. Washington gets killed on 2pt FG, FT, and Rebounds, especially offensively. Both Ayton and Booker are prime candidates for me. Phoenix literally does everything good. Washington will be a complete fade for me.

    Hou@GS – GS is favored by 9 and I have GS by 5.5. GS is playing a B2B at home (negative) and are 1-3 in those compared to 14-7 in all other home games. They are playing their third straight home game (negative) but are 3-0 in those compared to 12-10 in all other home games. No time change (slight positive) has them 10-8 compared to 5-2. Meanwhile, Houston is playing a B2B on the road (huge negative), but Houston is 3-2 in those compared to 4-17 in all other road games. Houston’s playing their second straight road game (positive) and Houston is 3-7 in those compared to 4-12 in all other road games. Houston also has no time zone change (slight negative) yet is 5-8 in those games and 2-11 in all others. I’m going to give Houston the edge here with the caveat that I do have this as the most likely game to see a blowout. Houston covers, but more gun to my head than lock. Houston gets destroyed on the boards and no one is worse at giving up steals. It’s Defensive God of the Century Dray Day. Golden State gives up offensive rebounds and steals. I was shocked to see how good Tate is at those. I’m thinking very few people will be on him, making me on him all the more.

    Detorit’s my lock, Feel good about Lakers covering, not feeling good about anything else, but I’ll take Sacramento, Toronto, Washington, Houston, and then Philly. Like the upside of OKC and Washington to pull off upsets.

    Good luck tonight!

    The only game I bet was Philly.
    I REALLY should be banned from everything DFS and Betting!

    There should be an investigation into my powers!!

  • gaelicgirl

    @miggs6876 said...

    Lots of big spreads. I hate trying to figure out the blowout factor. Never seem to get it right.

    Same here.

  • Petergunz82

    Joel Embed probably not playing.

  • Brendan240

    @Brendan239 said...

    Man, if you “punt” at SF, PF, and C on FD you can REALLY stack the Guards.

    Yo bro

  • dominicanpapi

    Siakam is out, Lowry doubtful and Hood is playing

  • Njsum1

    @dominicanpapi said...

    Siakam is out, Lowry doubtful and Hood is playing

    It worked yesterday for Mil, so I guess I get to use this GIF again, when it comes to Toronto gimme……

  • Brendan239

    Now the question is, which Cav? Garland or Hartenstein? Cle plays at a slow pace and the guys on Tor playing are priced for their ceiling.

  • tmarohl

    @Brendan239 said...

    I guess Tatum was right. It’s either Kanter or Dwight at C on FD. Por and Sac heavy, CP3 or Booker, Stewart, Garland (?)

    Last night you were saying that Drummond was going to be 80% chalk today.

  • Brendan239

    @tmarohl said...

    Last night you were saying that Drummond was going to be 80% chalk today.

    But you made a great point about Kanter and Dwight. I did not see them both quite a ways below Drum who was pretty low as it is

  • theIrrigator

    • Ranked #65

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @Brendan239 said...

    Now the question is, which Cav? Garland or Hartenstein? Cle plays at a slow pace and the guys on Tor playing are priced for their ceiling.

    You think Toronto guys are priced for their ceiling but you want to play a $5.1K Hartenstein? I thought I would be paying over $7k for Boucher

  • Brendan239

    @theIrrigator said...

    You think Toronto guys are priced for their ceiling but you want to play a $5.1K Hartenstein? I thought I would be paying over $7k for Boucher

    Only thing I’m worried about with Hartenstein is Loves minutes. If Loves stays below 26, Hartenstein has 45 point upside.

  • Brendan239

    And I’m looking at the crap below him. I already have Stewart. Then what can get you at least 35 like Hartenstein at PF below him?

  • theIrrigator

    • Ranked #65

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @Brendan239 said...

    And I’m looking at the crap below him. I already have Stewart. Then what can get you at least 35 like Hartenstein at PF below him?

    I dont see much below Stewart

  • Pandamonious

    • Ranked #53

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    It’s Saturday guys.

  • frugal

    @Brendan239 said...

    Only thing I’m worried about with Hartenstein is Loves minutes. If Loves stays below 26, Hartenstein has 45 point upside.

    On DK, I don’t think I can play Hartenstein today. Still early so I could change my mind but at the next price tier up we see Boucher, Drumm, and Ayton or paying up for Gobert.

  • Skee

    Playing more slates than usual, main, late and LA single game, but with less lineups in each. Was able to build out a few that I am really confident in rather than a shotgun approach.
    My main worries are 1) if Curry is the optimal points/salary guy out of him Lillard, Irving, Paul.
    I actually have $0 left over for Irving (chose Durant for that game anyway, figuring minutes go up, soft game, let him get back in the groove)
    and with Lillard or Paul I’d have to look through and make sure the savings doesn’t open anything else.
    And 2) if Isaiah Stewart will be the lock he has seemed to be. Not sure what happens with him if Plumlee plays (he really shouldn’t though, concussion and games in the same week?) Also not sure if his price is more accurate now rather than criminally low.

  • jdtrey

    Patiently waiting :)

    edit: This was supposed to quote Panda lmao

  • Brendan239

    Oh boy, Garlands a lock now. Also, Harrison Barnes is in a great spot, no?

  • tmarohl

    @Brendan239 said...

    Oh boy, Garlands a lock now. Also, Harrison Barnes is in a great spot, no?

    Why? If I did 50 lineups I may have him in one. Garland that is.
    Why do you feel Barnes is in a good spot? I look at that as a terrible spot. Playing on the road against Utah. Not to mention you are talking about a player that historically has not had any type of ceiling.

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