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  • Pandamonious

    • Ranked #52

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    7:30 PM EST : Toronto ( ) at Cleveland ( ) — T:
    8:30 PM EST : LA Lakers ( 12.5 ) at Brooklyn ( -12.5 ) — T: 223.5
    9:00 PM EST : Sacramento ( 12.5 ) at Utah ( -12.5 ) — T: 231
    9:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( ) at Oklahoma City ( ) — T:
    10:00 PM EST : Washington ( ) at Phoenix ( ) — T:
    10:00 PM EST : Detroit ( ) at Portland ( ) — T:
    10:00 PM EST : Houston ( 9 ) at Golden State ( -9 ) — T: 228

    RG NBA DRAFTKINGS LEAGUE

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s NBA thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • MickyD10970

    • 835

      RG Overall Ranking

    @Unico10 said...

    Cashed 2/5 in the shoot around
    Cashed 1/5 in the slap hitter because 325 wasn’t quite enough… needed 325.25

    Regardless another losing night with 3/5 lineups over 6x

    Scored 326 in my best to about double the entry fees with Prince. Was driving when the news on THT starting came out. Easy pivot and worth 25 more points. Have to be glued to news all night or can’t make plus ev moves and can’t miss on a single player and hit any kind of decent payday.

  • Skee

    Cashed some little ones but not the big ones that count more. I will basically never roster Ben again. Also didn’t take out Stewart with the Plumlee news, not sure how the sparse alternatives there did anyway.. but low salaries can dud, 7.4k guard cannot dud

  • tmarohl

    @RipCityRings said...

    That’s very much a FD pricing problem, though. They just straight up don’t care. It’s mostly a psychological war that they’re winning against their users- every lineup looks good on paper when you can plug almost anyone in, but then the rigidity of the format and wild scoring swings from overweighted bleals blows everything up.

    A site with DK lineup construction and FD contest selection would be the ultimate product, but we’ll probably never get it.

    I think DK pricing has been a lot softer than FD’s recently.

    I agree though, DK doesn’t give a crap about their NBA contests. They offer that $20 contest that sucks, and they offer the $4 one that is too small.

  • tmarohl

    @Skee said...

    Cashed some little ones but not the big ones that count more. I will basically never roster Ben again. Also didn’t take out Stewart with the Plumlee news, not sure how the sparse alternatives there did anyway.. but low salaries can dud, 7.4k guard cannot dud

    Winning lineup on FD had a dud in OG

  • MickyD10970

    • 835

      RG Overall Ranking

    @Skee said...

    Cashed some little ones but not the big ones that count more. I will basically never roster Ben again. Also didn’t take out Stewart with the Plumlee news, not sure how the sparse alternatives there did anyway.. but low salaries can dud, 7.4k guard cannot dud

    I did the same thing with Stewart. Funny thing about Simmons is the optimizer gives me him every day and I have to force him out because I refuse to play him😀

  • tmarohl

    The thing that bugs me the most about Draymond is that he is cheating the game. One day he is talking about he is the best defensive player of all time. Then you watch him play and he is not hustling and playing crappy defense. He doesn’t even try to be an offensive threat. He looks like he is mailing another year in. Maybe he thinks he can turn it on again next year when Klay comes back, but he ain’t getting any younger. I have my doubts that he will be able to do it. Kind of sad, because I always liked the energy he brought to the game. Now he is just a guy with a lotta talk and no game.

  • damionismyname

    • Ranked #85

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @RipCityRings said...

    That’s very much a FD pricing problem, though. They just straight up don’t care. It’s mostly a psychological war that they’re winning against their users- every lineup looks good on paper when you can plug almost anyone in, but then the rigidity of the format and wild scoring swings from overweighted bleals blows everything up.

    A site with DK lineup construction and FD contest selection would be the ultimate product, but we’ll probably never get it.

    how they get us is exactly what you said. the rigidity of the site,in theory, makes you have to spend more to cover more bases. If you have to fill a pf spot and you have 2 quality players at the same price you may make another lineup to cover that base. Same with every position, where on dk you may be able to move them around and play them somewhere else. Its just to get more money from the users imo.

  • RipCityRings

    @tmarohl said...

    I think DK pricing has been a lot softer than FD’s recently.

    I agree though, DK doesn’t give a crap about their NBA contests. They offer that $20 contest that sucks, and they offer the $4 one that is too small.

    That’s true, DK has been really slow to price up guys like Flynn lately. I’ve mostly stuck to playing the $6 Jab Step lately- $5K to first, 5Kish entries, full of sharks but at least it’s a decent payout structure and beats the 4PP where the field is 3-4x bigger and only $6K to first.

    I guess my main issue is that FD’s format leads to a lot of sub-optimal lineups winning or placing higher than they should simply because of that rigid structure. I feel like I’m usually more impressed with DK’s winning lineups because they’re more creatively built and tend to have less duds.

  • tmarohl

    @RipCityRings said...

    That’s true, DK has been really slow to price up guys like Flynn lately. I’ve mostly stuck to playing the $6 Jab Step lately- $5K to first, 5Kish entries, full of sharks but at least it’s a decent payout structure and beats the 4PP where the field is 3-4x bigger and only $6K to first.

    I guess my main issue is that FD’s format leads to a lot of sub-optimal lineups winning or placing higher than they should simply because of that rigid structure. I feel like I’m usually more impressed with DK’s winning lineups because they’re more creatively built and tend to have less duds.

    DK consistently underprices many players. The minimum is too low. So you have many days where a 3K player gets a spot start, which then allows you to play a bunch of studs, because the studs are not priced high enough.

  • tmarohl

    @RipCityRings said...

    That’s true, DK has been really slow to price up guys like Flynn lately. I’ve mostly stuck to playing the $6 Jab Step lately- $5K to first, 5Kish entries, full of sharks but at least it’s a decent payout structure and beats the 4PP where the field is 3-4x bigger and only $6K to first.

    I guess my main issue is that FD’s format leads to a lot of sub-optimal lineups winning or placing higher than they should simply because of that rigid structure. I feel like I’m usually more impressed with DK’s winning lineups because they’re more creatively built and tend to have less duds.

    I only have a problem with FD’s rigid structure on smaller slates It would be cool if they added some positional flexibility, like PF/C, SF/PF, PG/SG etc. which allowed you to differentiate more.

  • Yukerboy

    • Blogger of the Month

    In my defense, Detroit played the closest game.

    3-4. Not a game closer than 15.

  • gaelicgirl

    @tmarohl said...

    Man, so close. Took 30th in the FD late night shot and 74th in the full slate shot.

    Well done, sir!

  • gaelicgirl

    @Yukerboy said...

    In my defense, Detroit played the closest game.

    3-4. Not a game closer than 15.

    I think you put too much emphasis on past performances as far as home/road splits, where the games fall in home/road stands, etc. without taking into account the opponents played/players out to get those numbers.

  • tmarohl

    @gaelicgirl said...

    I think you put too much emphasis on past performances as far as home/road splits, where the games fall in home/road stands, etc. without taking into account the opponents played/players out to get those numbers.

    I agree. I mean, you really don’t know the teams travel schedule. For instance, the Bucks were just on a 6 game road trip. They were not on the road the entire time. They came home for a couple days. They are going out on another road trip. Starts tomorrow in Orlando. Normally they would probably stay in Florida for a couple days and enjoy the weather. However, I have a sneaking suspicion that they flew in today, and will leave after the game and come back home, because the next game is in Minnesota, which is about a 45 minute flight. So your time zone analysis would be off.

  • Yukerboy

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gaelicgirl said...

    I think you put too much emphasis on past performances as far as home/road splits, where the games fall in home/road stands, etc. without taking into account the opponents played/players out to get those numbers.

    I don’t take into account players in/out except on my actual projections for the day’s games.
    The spreadsheet does take in to account strength of opponent, though it’s so detailed, I don’t get into it on the forum.

    For instance, Portland gets a win on the front end of a back to back to move to 5-1. Teams that play the front end of a back to back at home are now 72-80. The spreadsheet then checks the opponents Portland had in those back to backs and then checks the opponents last 10 games before that matchup (Lakers today aren’t the Lakers of January) and weights Portland’s record on front end of back to backs accordingly. Portland on front end back to backs played:

    Win against NY: 4-6 in their last ten (Portland should win).
    Win against Phi: 8-2 in their last 10 (Portland should lose).
    Win against GS: 6-4 in their last 10 (Portland should win).
    Win against NO: 5-5 in their last 10 (Portland should win).
    Loss against Mil: 4-6 in their last 10 (Portland should win).
    Win against Det: 4-6 in their last 10 (Portland should win).

    Portland’s record in front end back to backs is 5-1. They should be 5-1. Teams that play front ends of back to backs at home have a losing record (.474) and teams at home in all other games have a winning record (.555). So, either Portland is doing something right opreparing for the front end of back to backs at home, or they’ve been just fortunate. Either way, I called them just fortunate and made Detroit my lock. I was wrong.

    Portland traveled one hour west to play a home game. Teams that do that have a losing record (26-28, .481). Portland hasn’t done it yet. Had to think that was a negative. Portland was playing their first home game after a road game. They are 4-5 in those, though the league is 155-130 in that same situation. It’s a negative for Portland. They beat NO, Charlotte, Orlando and Toronto. They lost to Utah, Chicago, Indiana, Washington and Milwaukee. They should be 7-2. They are 4-5.

    And it’s not like I picked Detroit to win. I had them covering a damned 11.5 point spread.
    Who knew Kanter was getting 30 boards? I sure didn’t.

    Finally, it’s been about three weeks. I’m 14-6 on my locks and 21-10 since tracking all picks the last four days. I went 3-4 last night, but my situational spreadsheet went 5-2. I didn’t listen to it enough. It got Detroit wrong. It got OKC wrong. It nailed the rest. But, because it agreed with my Detroit pick from my projection spreadsheet, that was my lock. It told me Toronto had an edge, it told me the Lakers had an edge. I listend to it on both even though my projections had Cleveland beating the spread and Brooklyn right at the number.

    60% is golden. I’m 70% on locks and 68% overall. I’ll take it.

  • gaelicgirl

    @Yukerboy said...

    60% is golden. I’m 70% on locks and 68% overall. I’ll take it.

    So your long posts are more about sports betting than DFS, is that what you’re saying?

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