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  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    7:30 PM EST : Milwaukee ( ) at Atlanta ( ) —T:
    8:00 PM EST : Golden State ( ) at Cleveland ( ) — T:
    10:00 PM EST : Boston ( -5.5 ) at LA Lakers ( 5.5 ) — T: 212
    10:00 PM EST : Sacramento ( ) at Phoenix ( ) — T:

    RG NBA DRAFTKINGS LEAGUE

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s NBA thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • Yukerboy

    • Blogger of the Month

    Two nights ago, I’m whining that I took the 1 of the 4 lock worthy games for my lock and it’s the one that loses.
    Last night, I took the 1 of SIX lock worthy games that won and the others went 2-3.
    17-7.
    Had a good bit on the moneyline for Detroit which lost on a 9-2 in the last 100 seconds and then had the Memphis moneyline with Grayson Allen missing those two free throws up 2 with 1.8 seconds and Donc making a circus 3 to finish it.
    A huge night turned into an average night.

    For those wondering, I’m absolutely new at this gambling stuff on spreads and such. I don’t know what’s right or wrong, but I bet 15% on my lock, 3% on singles for my lock worthy games, 2% on 2 leg parlays for each combination, and 1% total for longer parlays and more longer risk chances.

    Anyway, nice interesting four game slate today where both my scheduling sheet and projections sheet are in agreement on all four games.

    Mil@Atl – 1st game and we already run into my lock of the night. Milwaukee is currently favored by 6 and I have Atlanta favored by 2.5. That’s before the edge in Atlanta’s favor with playing their first home game and Milwaukee traveling one hour east to play a back to back in their third straight road game. If I had any balls, I would jump on Atlanta outright winning as my lock, but I’m more than happy to take that +6. If Trae Young and Gallinari both sit, I still have Atlanta covering that spread by 2.5 so taking this one early before the line changes won’t hurt and will really help if you think Giannis plays, which I do. Atlanta has become a strong defensive team, giving up offensive rebounds and tons of blocks. This helps both Brook and Giannis, but Brook even more as a higher percentage of his DKP are from OReb and blocks. Milwaukee continues to be the worst defending the arc and Bogs and Gallo are the two most benefitting from that.

    GS@Cle – Golden State is favored by 7.5 and I have this as a pick em. That’s also before Cleveland’s clear scheduling edge. Cleveland is playing a back to back at home in their first home game. Golden State is playing a back to back in their second straight road game and travel one hour east. What does make me back off Cleveland a little is that these factors make this game the highest risk of a blowout and I can’t see anyway Cleveland wins this by 15 plus. That and the backcourt questionables makes me back away from this one. Cleveland defends most everything well and GS gives up OReb and steals helping Jarrett Allen the most. Still, with the possibility of a blowout, I’m looking towards Steph in some outliers and that’s it.

    Sac@Pho – Phoenix is favored by 10 while I have Phoenix by 11.5. That’s also before the scheduling edge which clearly favors Phoenix. Phoenix is playing their fourth straight home game while the Kings hit the road for a back to back, traveling one hour east. I’m definitely on Phoenix to cover here. Sacramento gives up all forms of scoring and assists, but the biggest disparity is how much they give up at the charity stripe. All this bodes well for Booker and Paul, but especially Booker who is more scoring dependent and draws the most FTA. Phoenix literally defends everything well, but with centers at a premium today, Whiteside is that transcendent talent who can only be held back by Luke Walton himself.

    Bos@LAL – Boston is favored by 6 and I have the Lakers by .5 a point. Add in the Lakers biggest scheduling edge of the night and this was almost my lock. The only reason I went away from it is that Atlanta could see some line movement in my favor while this one will certainly see line movement against me, so I’m grabbing it early. The Lakers travel 3 hours west to play their first home game while Boston plays their third straight road game. Boston defends everything well since Time Lord has become the starting center, giving up blocks only and I have no one from the Lakers getting more than 1 block. Meanwhile the Lakers give up boards and bleals, giving Time Lord the edge here.

    Atlanta’s my lock, Lakers and Phoenix are lock worthy, liking Clevleand.

    Good luck today!

  • theIrrigator

    • 475

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #40

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Nice the FD Shot is down to $4 for today

  • Brendan239

    Do we eat the Whiteside chalk on FD or be different and go up to Timelord? Can’t do much until the Trae and ABC injury news comes out. I really like Tatum and Kemba but I don’t want 2-3 Celtics in THAT game. Booker, CP3, Johnson, Payne? Roll w Dray? TSA? Haliburton still a fair price.

  • bazerko

  • tmarohl

    @bazerko said...

    LaMarcus Aldridge just retired.

    That is kind of a shocker. Could have just said he was hurt and probably rode out the rest of the season and got a championship.

  • tmarohl

    https://twitter.com/aldridge_12/status/1382706719684444161/photo/1

  • tmarohl

    @Brendan239 said...

    Do we eat the Whiteside chalk on FD or be different and go up to Timelord? Can’t do much until the Trae and ABC injury news comes out. I really like Tatum and Kemba but I don’t want 2-3 Celtics in THAT game. Booker, CP3, Johnson, Payne? Roll w Dray? TSA? Haliburton still a fair price.

    Why do you think Whiteside will be chalk? Because he had one outlier performance in 22 minutes against a team that everyone kills in the middle?

  • Brendan239

    @tmarohl said...

    Why do you think Whiteside will be chalk? Because he had one outlier performance in 22 minutes against a team that everyone kills in the middle?

    Because Holmes is out and even if he doesn’t start he should still get 22+ minutes and he’s something like 1.8 FPPM without Holmes so he should Min 7x. And recency bias.

  • zeeshan2

    @tmarohl said...

    That is kind of a shocker. Could have just said he was hurt and probably rode out the rest of the season and got a championship.

    very underrated player the last 15 years; absolutely sucks that he’s retiring because of heart issues

  • telestraightshooter

    @Brendan239 said...

    Because Holmes is out and even if he doesn’t start he should still get 22+ minutes and he’s something like 1.8 FPPM without Holmes so he should Min 7x. And recency bias.

    I follow your logic, but will coach Walton?….

  • tmarohl

    @Brendan239 said...

    Because Holmes is out and even if he doesn’t start he should still get 22+ minutes and he’s something like 1.8 FPPM without Holmes so he should Min 7x. And recency bias.

    The previous game, when Holmes got hurt, he only played three minutes. I mean I will have some Whiteside, but I don’t think he will be chalk. I would guess C ownership would be pretty spread out.

  • yisman

    @bazerko said...

    LaMarcus Aldridge just retired.

    Bizarre. He demanded the Spurs release him, then signed with the Nets. Played 5 games, then retires due to an irregular heartbeat.

  • Unico10

    • 738

      RG Overall Ranking

    Hark NONE

    That’s for sure… we’ll see about anything else :)

  • tmarohl

    So far I hate this slate on FD and DK

  • tmarohl

    @Unico10 said...

    Hark LESS

    That’s for sure… we’ll see about anything else :)

    Do we Hark LESS or Baze MORE? Both seem like poor options.

  • Unico10

    • 738

      RG Overall Ranking

    @tmarohl said...

    Quote

    Reply

    HarkNONE and BazeLESS

  • thegunnard

    @Unico10 said...

    HarkNONE and BazeLESS

  • Tribefan18

    I’m building around giannis, Booker, love and maybe time lord. But will love play on the b2b tonight?

  • Brendan239

    @tmarohl said...

    The previous game, when Holmes got hurt, he only played three minutes. I mean I will have some Whiteside, but I don’t think he will be chalk. I would guess C ownership would be pretty spread out.

    Last night he played 22 minutes and put up 40 FD points. Ppl will see that.

  • tmarohl

    @Brendan239 said...

    Last night he played 22 minutes and put up 40 FD points. Ppl will see that.

    I just don’t think he will be chalky. Not saying if he is a good or bad play. In my mind, this slate kind of sucks.

    I think the slate sucks because too many guys priced up from production when others have been out.
    For instance, all the Bucks are priced up – If Giannis plays, you can’t use any of them and you can’t use Giannis because he most likely will be on minutes restriction if he plays.
    All the Hawks are priced up. If Trae plays, you can’t use any of them except Capela.
    I expect Suns to pound Sac, probably means less than a full compliment of minutes for guys like Booker and CP3, who are both very expensive for the minutes they have been getting.
    Cleveland has been running about a 50 man rotation.
    No one on the Lakers stands out as a good play.
    Curry is on a heater and is priced as such.

  • tmarohl

    @Tribefan18 said...

    I’m building around giannis, Booker, love and maybe time lord. But will love play on the b2b tonight?

    If Giannis plays, I don’t expect he will play full minutes.

  • zeeshan2

    Early interests: Booker blow up spot possibly, Curry, Draymond, Giannis, Drummond, Bodgan, Whiteside, Allen, Tatum. After that its pretty hazy

  • tmarohl

    RotoWireBasketball
    @RotoWireNBA
    ·
    14s
    Dylan Windler: Out Thursday

  • Njsum1

    @tmarohl said...

    RotoWireBasketball
    @RotoWireNBA
    ·
    14s
    Dylan Windler: Out Thursday

    Now we can start building 😜😁

  • Herf

    Middleton @ $7.8K against Atlanta doesn’t seem horrible. Possible 50 FD PTS upside.

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