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  • Pandamonious

    • Ranked #46

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    3:00 PM EST : Indiana ( 9.5 ) at Utah ( -9.5 ) — T: 235
    7:00 PM EST : Oklahoma City ( 7 ) at Detroit ( -7 ) — T: 217
    7:00 PM EST : New Orleans ( -1.5 ) at Washington ( 1.5 ) — T: 242.5
    7:00 PM EST : LA Clippers ( ) at Philadelphia ( ) — T:
    7:30 PM EST : Orlando ( ) at Toronto ( ) — T:
    7:30 PM EST : Charlotte ( 13.5 ) at Brooklyn ( -13.5 ) — T: 224
    8:00 PM EST : Memphis ( ) at Chicago ( ) — T: 227.5
    8:00 PM EST : Denver ( -8.5 ) at Houston ( 8.5 ) — T: 224
    8:00 PM EST : Miami ( ) at Minnesota ( ) — T:
    8:30 PM EST : Portland ( -1.5 ) at San Antonio ( 1.5 ) — T: 231.5
    9:30 PM EST : New York ( 5 ) at Dallas ( -5 ) — T: 210.5

    RG NBA DRAFTKINGS LEAGUE

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s NBA thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • fleishmo6

    Good morning
    Just did a quick once over on FD
    The center slate is loaded.
    Seems like Stewert will be the PF chalk of the day with Plumlee out
    Chicago will have value with no lavine and VanVleet back in the line up always a good play
    Simmons down to 6900
    Looks like a very strong balanced roster could be the winner tonight
    Good luck to all

  • jfitzgan

    Pistons and raptors with a lot of guys not playing. Joseph, smith, grant, plumlee, Lowry, Siakim, OG and most likely bembry. Pretty crazy. Tons of value just from those 2 teams.

  • Yukerboy

    • Blogger of the Month

    I admit, I was pretty disheartened yesterday. 0-4 and my lock losing by .5 a point after a furious Laker comeback.
    So, I went looking at my history.
    I’ve been doing this for 25 days.
    My locks are 17-8 (68%)
    My other games are 122-77 (61%)
    Bad days gonna happen.
    However, in an effort to increase my other games %, I’m going to go with lock worthy picks only and see what happens.
    On to today.

    Ind@Uta – Utah is favored by 9.5 and I also have Utah by 9.5. However, Indy has the scheduling edge here. Utah has a 5th straight home game, but is also playing the front end of a back to back while Indiana travels 1 hour west to play their second straight home game. That edge isn’t enough to make this lock worthy though. Utah defends everything well and I’ll fade all of Indy. Indy gives up OReb and Blocks, making Rudy Gobert is a nice underowned leverage play.

    OKC@Det – Detroit is favored by 2.5 and I have Detroit by 4. OKC has a scheduling edge here though with Detroit playing the front end of a B2B in their second straight home game while OKC travels one hour east for their first road game. Enough to keep me from making Detroit lock worthy. Detroit gives up blocks only, but with the amount of starters out, I think you can throw their past history out the window. OKC gives up 2ptFG, Assists, Rebounds, and Steals. Liking Killian Hayes and Josh Jackson here.

    LAC@Phi – Philly is favored by 2 and I have them by 5. Philly also has the scheduling edge, making them lock worthy, but not my lock of the day. Philly is playing their 2nd straight home game while the Clippers are playing their third straight road game. Philly gives up 2pt FG and FTs, which should benefit Kawhi Leonard and Ivica Zubac. The Clippers also give up 2pt FG and FTs along with Offensive boards. Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris both should be looking at better than average games.

    NO@Was – NO is favored by 2 but I have Washington by .5 a point. NO does have a scheduling edge here, keeping me from jumping on Washington. Washington travels three hours east to play the front end of a B2B in their first home game while NO travels one hour east to play their first road game. Washington gives up scoring in all forms, rebounds and steals. Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and Lonzo Ball all benefit here, but they should be popular picks. NO gives up 3s and FTs, helping Bradley Beal and Davis Bertans the most.

    Cha@Brk – Brooklyn is favored by 13.5 and I have them by 12. With Brooklyn having the edge here, I can’t go Charlotte. Brooklyn is playing their first home game and Charlotte is playing their first road game. Charlotte gets absolutely destroyed from beyond the arc, but give up no free throws. I’m on Joe Harris here rather than Durant and Irving. Brooklyn gives up FT, ORebs and assists. Brad Wanamaker is fitting the bill.

    Orl@Tor – Toronto’s favored by 1.5 and I have Orlando by 3. Orlando has a slight scheduling edge with traveling one hour east to play their second straight road game while Toronto plays their third straight home game. That edge is enough to make this my lock of the night and I’ll be heavy on Orlando moneyline to boot. Matter of fact, let’s make that moneyline my lock of the night. Toronto gets destroyed behind the arc and gives up FTs and the worst at giving up blocks. Mo Bamba could put some ridiculous points up in his 20 minutes and the Captain, Terrance Ross, should have a good game. Orlando gives up FGs, boards, and 2nd to Toronto in giving up blocks. Chris Boucher should have a field day and Freddie Gillespie won’t be a bad play.

    Mem@Chi – Memphis is favored by 4 and I also have them by 4. Both teams are playing the front end of a B2B and Chicago is playing their 2nd straight home game while Memphis is playing their first road game. Memphis has a slight edge there, but not enough to make them lock worthy. Both defend pretty well and other than Patrick Williams, I’ll have no interest here.

    Den@Hou – Denver’s favored by 8.5 and I have Denver by 4. Houston plays their second straight home game while Denver travels one hour east to play their first road game, giving Houston a slight edge. Enough to make them lock worthy to me. Houston gives up boards and the worst at giving up steals and that makes Jokic a prime play, but everyone knows it. I’ll be fading everyone from Houston.

    Mia@Min – Miami is favored by 6.5 and I have Miami by 4.5. Minnesota has a scheudling edge here playing their fourth straight home game and Miami playing their fourth straight road game. Minnesota is lock worthy, though I despise Finch with a passion. Minnesota gives up scoring, especially FT, rebounds, assists, and blocks, making the obvious candidates of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo both prime candidates. Miami gets destroyed from the arc and on offensive boards. Josh Okogie could have a surprisingly good game.

    Por@SA – Portland’s favored by 2, I have them by 5. However, SA has a scheduling edge here preventing me from locking Portland in. San Antonio travels west two hours to play a front end of a B2B in their first home game while Portland travels one hour east for their first road game. SA gives up 3s and third worst at blocks. I’m looking to Robert Covington here. Portland gives up boards and scoring. I’m liking Demar DeRozan, Dejounte Murray, and a random good game from Keldon Johnson.

    NY@Dal – Dallas is favored by 5 and I got them by 4. Dallas does have a scheduling edge keeping me from locking NY in. Dallas is playing their first home game while NY plays their 2nd consecutive road game. Dalls gives up 3s and little else while NY gives up FTs and little else. I like Alec Burks for a random good game here and little else.

    So all in all….

    Lock of the day: Orlando moneyline
    Lock worthy: Philly, Houston and Minnesota
    Close to being lock worthy: Indiana if Utah gets favored by 10 or more.
    Moneylines: Orlando and Washington

  • mbunner23

    Yuker, you act like your record is bad. That’s dang good for betting. Keep it up, I’ve been following.

  • Herf

    Favors doubtful for Utah means they may have to play Ilysova to match up to Sabonis and Turner.

  • theIrrigator

    • Ranked #84

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @Herf said...

    Favors doubtful for Utah means they may have to play Ilysova to match up to Sabonis and Turner.

    I bet he only gets Favors normal 15 mins. Or Gobert gets a few more mins and Ersan plays even less

  • theIrrigator

    • Ranked #84

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Michael Carter-Williams (ankle) expected to miss multiple games. https://t.co/rZEYml9WhM

  • theIrrigator

    • Ranked #84

      RG Tiered Ranking

    I’m am still gonna play Ersan though. He is only $1k

  • JDeight

    We all really appreciate your write ups. Keep up the good work brotha!!

  • telestraightshooter

    @Yukerboy said...

    scheduling edge

    Curious, what tools you use to compile this useful analysis?

  • telestraightshooter

    Seems every NBA day latley has Several Starting LUs heavily fortified w/ vitiman G…
    G League

  • Unico10

    • 574

      RG Overall Ranking

    BazeLESS, HarkNONE…. NOTney Hood? LOL…. lame I know, but such a bad player deserves some brand on his chalk day

  • Njsum1

    @Yukerboy said...

    I admit, I was pretty disheartened yesterday. 0-4 and my lock losing by .5 a point after a furious Laker comeback.

    My first time playing your picks and this is what happens 😜

    JUST MESSING AROUND, I don’t bet games (Yet), just play DFS, yet I do read your write ups…..as mentioned you’ve been very accurate, keep up the good work! 👍🍀🔥🏀🔥🍀🍀

  • tmarohl

    FantasyLabs NBA
    @FantasyLabsNBA
    ·
    2m
    Transaction note: DeMarcus Cousins has signed a second 10-day contract with the Clippers.

  • tmarohl

    FantasyLabs NBA
    @FantasyLabsNBA
    ·
    2m
    Lonzo Ball (hip) said he’ll play Friday.

  • Njsum1

    @fleishmo6 said...

    Looks like a very strong balanced roster could be the winner tonight
    Good luck to all

    I don’t know…at first glance, it looks like Stars and Scrubs with a mid range play or two makes sense. There’s going to be too much value with upside for a balanced roster to bring it home…IMO

  • tmarohl

    Adrian Wojnarowski
    wojespn · 4m Three-time NBA champion DwyaneWade has purchased an ownership stake in the Utah Jazz, joining majority owner and governor @RyanQualtrics with plans to take an active role in the franchise and region. Story on ESPN: https://es.pn/3douKrp

  • Unico10

    • 574

      RG Overall Ranking

    Wonder if this is the night to stay away from Flynn…. up at 6200 on DK and FVV back…?

  • captainwacky

    @Unico10 said...

    Wonder if this is the night to stay away from Flynn…. up at 6200 on DK and FVV back…?

    I’m not sure how hard I’ll go on Flynn regardless (as it seems like if you’re going studs/scrubs all the value is at C/PF meaning the pay ups are guards), but I don’t think FVV being back (and potentially limited anyway) would stop Flynn from being a good play in a vacuum. They have like 4 NBA players and Stanley Johnson.

  • Yukerboy

    • Blogger of the Month

    @telestraightshooter said...

    Curious, what tools you use to compile this useful analysis?

    Just Excel and the schedule. Each game is considered for result, strength of opponent, home or away, front end of a back to back (home teams suck), back end of a back to back (road teams suck). Consecutive games home or away (longer the better, except for that third game at home). Timezone traveled between games (going east is bad, west is good for the most part). Days rest (2 is better than 1, 1 is better than 0, 3 is worse than 2 and 1. Go figure.)

    It allows for a degree of accuracy that Vegas can’t take advantage of. If Vegas starts to move lines based on a team’s schedule, they will have overwhelming bets on one side as the majority of bettors don’t look at those factors. Vegas wants bettors split 50/50. However, I’m sure once these trends are seen, Vegas will do everything to educate bettors on these trends because the only thing better for Vegas than a line dividing bettors 50/50 is one that is more accurate to boot. Vegas took a loss in the Boston/Lakers game, even though their line was off by just .5 a point, because the vast majorities of bettors thought Boston is on a roll. Their line needed to be more in Boston’s favor to avoid taking a loss, which only benefits me more as I had the Lakers as my lock to cover. So a lot of it isn’t just the schedule sheet and the projection sheet, but also what Vegas is doing with that line.

    A lot like a roullette wheel. They show you that 62% of the last 200 rolls hit red, 34% hit black, 4% hit green. They know one guy looks at it and says “Red is hot!” And another guy looks at it and says “Boy, black is due for a run!”. Or they show the previous 9 spins were red and bettors are going “He can’t surely spin a tenth red in a row.”. Meanwhile, the casino doesn’t care what the result is, just as long as the bets are coming in pretty evenly as it knows the odds of black or red is just over 47%. If I flip a coin and it is heads 9 times in a row, that tenth flip is still 50/50.

    Today, my favorite is Orlando to cover and I have them outright winning. However, the vast majority of bettors see an Orlando team without Vuc/Gordon as terrible and Vegas knows this, forcing the line higher than it should be to cut down the losses should Orlando not cover. I also know Orlando sucks, but the majority of Bettors don’t realize how bad Toronto (And Nick Nurse) suck. So, you’ll hear a lot of gambling touts on Orlando today, not just because they see it too, but because they also have endorsers in casinos and gambling conglomerates that want the word to get out to cut their losses should Orlando not cover. They know Orlando’s line should be lower, but they can’t risk all those bets on the other side.

    Of course, all this moves lines from my favor to out of my favor, so I hit the lines early when I have no doubt about players playing and wait and hope for news breaking where I’ll see overreaction on the line. Vegas couldn’t go much higher once the Lakers announced starters out because they were already over where the line should have been. They want to be under 50%, and they want to be over 50% of the time in addition to having equal bets on both sides. Same thing with hot Golden State, same thing with hot Phoenix, same thing with Detroit viewed worse than they are, and Chicago/Atlanta for that matter. I’m seeing trends not only in who my locks are for, but also against. This isn’t because of my bias, but the bias of other bettors forcing Vegas to exaggerate a line.

    I hope all that made sense. Pretty groggy.

  • tmarohl

    @captainwacky said...

    I’m not sure how hard I’ll go on Flynn regardless (as it seems like if you’re going studs/scrubs all the value is at C/PF meaning the pay ups are guards), but I don’t think FVV being back (and potentially limited anyway) would stop Flynn from being a good play in a vacuum. They have like 4 NBA players and Stanley Johnson.

    Rodney Hood say’s hello.

  • tmarohl

    FantasyLabs NBA
    @FantasyLabsNBA
    ·
    20m
    Alec Burks (health protocols) ruled out Friday.

  • Neilj907

    So is fvv a decent enough play?

  • 866

    100% Pee-Jay D today. Like Porzy vs Knick. Randle. Rose! Simmons down to 7800 must-play feel like.

  • tmarohl

    FantasyLabs NBA
    @FantasyLabsNBA
    ·
    1m
    DeAndre’ Bembry (hamstring) now listed questionable Friday.

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