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  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    7:00 PM EST : Washington ( ) at Orlando ( ) — T:
    7:00 PM EST : Minnesota ( ) at Indiana ( ) — T:
    7:30 PM EST : New Orleans ( ) at Brooklyn ( ) — T:
    7:30 PM EST : New York ( ) at Boston ( ) — T:
    8:00 PM EST : Memphis ( 2 ) at Atlanta ( -2 ) — T: 229
    8:00 PM EST : Dallas ( ) at Houston ( ) — T:
    8:00 PM EST : Charlotte ( -4.5 ) at Oklahoma City ( 4.5 ) — T: 214
    9:00 PM EST : San Antonio ( ) at Denver ( ) — T:
    10:00 PM EST : Utah ( -2 ) at Phoenix ( 2 ) — T: 225.5

    RG NBA DRAFTKINGS LEAGUE

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s NBA thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • Yukerboy

    • Blogger of the Month

    Nailed my 4 leg parlay.
    Missed my 7 leg parlay by 1.
    Locks are now 12-4.
    Yay.

    DFS? Yeah, my optimal scored 240 and only downhill from there. TJ Mac, Grayson Allen and Time Lord were not the plays.

    Anyway, on to tonight and let me give you this tidbit. For the first time I can remember, every single game is showing a higher than average chance of seeing a greater than 15 point margin. Every single game.

    Min@Ind – Vegas has Indiana by 3.5 and I have this as a pick ‘em. Indiana has a scheduling edge, but it’s almost all bad as Indiana is playing the back end of a back to back in their second consecutive home game which is a slight negative while Minnesota travels 1 hour east for their first road game which are both negatives. I’m not going to go against Vegas here. I do have this as a 10% more likely chance of becoming a blowout than normal, and if so, Indiana wins this one, so I will play a little of them covering 14.5. Minnesota massively gives up points, FGA, and FTA (Brogdon). Indiana gives up a ton of offensive rebounds and blocks, but that was with Turner and Sabonis in, so I’m not so hot on that.

    Was@Orl – Vegas has Washington by 3.5 and I have them by 1. However, Washington is showing the second largest scheudling edge tonight with Orlando retunring 2 hours east to play their first home game which is the biggest negative a home team can have. Meanwhile Washington is playing their 2nd straight home game, which is a positive. I’m also showing this game has more than double the chance of being a blowout based on those same factors. So, even though if everything was equal, I would have Orlando covering, I will be taking Washington’s -14.5 line in a lot of my parlays. No team gives up a higher FG%, especially from three, than Orlando (Bertans) and Washington gives up everything but 3s (Wendell Carter).

    NY@Bos – Here’s an interesting one. Vegas has Boston by 3.5 and I have NY by 5.5. Normally, this would make NY my lock pretty easily, but Boston has quite a scheduling edge, though it’s mixed. Boston is playing their 5th consecutive home game (huge positive) bu on the back end of a back to back at home (slight negative) and NY is playing their 3rd consecutive road game (negative). I’m going to lean towards Vegas here and not touch this one, but if I had a gun to my head, I would wager on NY covering. Boston gets destroyed on blocks and defensive rebounds (Noel) and NY is giving up a lot of steals (Smart/Brown/Tatum). The good news is even though I have this as a more than average chance of becoming a blowout, I do have this as the least likely game to become a blowout.

    NO@Bkn – Vegas has Brooklyn at 10.5 and I have them at 7.5. Brooklyn has a huge scheduling edge with their second straight home game (positive) and NO playing a back to back in their third consecutive road game (huge negative). Again, gun to my head, Brooklyn covers, but I’m not all over it. Brooklyn is giving up offensive rebounds at a massive rate (Steven Adams) while NO gets destroyed behind the arc and on assists (Irving). It will be interesting to see what Durant’s return does to Irving’s ownership and I love him in this spot.

    Mem@Atl – Vegas has Atlanta by 2.5 and I have Atlanta by 3. Both teams are playing the end of a B2B, and Atlanta is playing their third home game while Memphis is playing their third road game. B2Bs at home are much different than B2Bs on the road though and I have Atlanta with a sizeable edge here. It’s not my lock of the night, though I’m tempted, but I’ll have Atlanta to cover and some parlays where they win by 15 or more. Atlanta has been getting destroyed on offensive boards and blocks (JVal) and Memphis gives up steals and no boards (no one). Of course, all of this is saying Morant plays and if he’s out, I could very easily jump on Atlanta as my lock depending on where the spread ends up.

    Dal@Hou – Vegas has Dallas by 11, I have Dallas by 9. Houston is playing their third straight home game (slight negative) while Dallas plays the front end of a back to back on the road (positive) and travels one hour east (negative) for their first road game (negative). Yet another game I don’t want to touch, but if you put a gun to my head, I would say Dallas covers, but this is certainly the toughest one of the night. The New look Rockets are still getting destroyed on the boards (Kleber/Luka) and the worst at giving up steals (Richardson). Dallas is still giving 3s up at a massive rate (Wood, seriously.)

    Cha@OKC – Vegas has Charlotte by 4.5 and I only have them by a .5 point. OKC is playing the front end of a Back to back (huge negative) in their second straight home game (slight positive) while Charlotte is playing their 5th consecutive road game (positive) traveling 1 hour west (negative). I’m not on this one either, but I would take Charlotte to cover. Charlotte still gets destroyed on 3s, assists, and steals (Maledon, Svi) while OKC is second worst against steals (Rozier) and boards and 2pt FGs (Bridges).

    SA@Den – Denver is favored by 6.5 and I have them by 5. Denver does have the slight scheduling edge with playing a B2B at home (slight negative) in their third straight home game while SA goes west one hour (negative) to play their first road game (negative). I’m on Denver to cover and this is the second most likely game to become a blowout. Denver gives up nothing, even moreso with Aaron Gordon, which is surprising. SA gives up 3s (Murray/Porter) and the second worst at giving up blocks (no one, not even Joker).

    Uta@Pho – Utah is favored by 2. I have Utah by 1.5. However, Phoenix has 2 of the worst factors against them with playing the front end of a back to back at home and traveling 1 hour west while Utah opens a back to back on the road (positive), a second straight road game (positive) and also travels one hour west (slight negative). Right now, this is my lock of the night. Utah has the top scheduling advantage of the night and there should be little line movement barring a surprise scratch and I have this as the third most likely game to become a blowout, which also favors Utah. This is not my most confident lock pick in the past few weeks, but it’s not bad, but my confidence in Atlanta covering is growing and I’m like 51 Utah and 49 Atlanta for my lock of the night. Lately, no teams are better defensively than either of these and with the risk of a blowout, I’m fading this whole game in DFS.

    Good luck all.

  • miggs6876

    @Yukerboy said...

    Nailed my 4 leg parlay.
    Missed my 7 leg parlay by 1.
    Locks are now 12-4.
    Yay.

    DFS? Yeah, my optimal scored 240 and only downhill from there. TJ Mac, Grayson Allen and Time Lord were not the plays.

    Anyway, on to tonight and let me give you this tidbit. For the first time I can remember, every single game is showing a higher than average chance of seeing a greater than 15 point margin. Every single game.

    Min@Ind – Vegas has Indiana by 3.5 and I have this as a pick ‘em. Indiana has a scheduling edge, but it’s almost all bad as Indiana is playing the back end of a back to back in their second consecutive home game which is a slight negative while Minnesota travels 1 hour east for their first road game which are both negatives. I’m not going to go against Vegas here. I do have this as a 10% more likely chance of becoming a blowout than normal, and if so, Indiana wins this one, so I will play a little of them covering 14.5. Minnesota massively gives up points, FGA, and FTA (Brogdon). Indiana gives up a ton of offensive rebounds and blocks, but that was with Turner and Sabonis in, so I’m not so hot on that.

    Was@Orl – Vegas has Washington by 3.5 and I have them by 1. However, Washington is showing the second largest scheudling edge tonight with Orlando retunring 2 hours east to play their first home game which is the biggest negative a home team can have. Meanwhile Washington is playing their 2nd straight home game, which is a positive. I’m also showing this game has more than double the chance of being a blowout based on those same factors. So, even though if everything was equal, I would have Orlando covering, I will be taking Washington’s -14.5 line in a lot of my parlays. No team gives up a higher FG%, especially from three, than Orlando (Bertans) and Washington gives up everything but 3s (Wendell Carter).

    NY@Bos – Here’s an interesting one. Vegas has Boston by 3.5 and I have NY by 5.5. Normally, this would make NY my lock pretty easily, but Boston has quite a scheduling edge, though it’s mixed. Boston is playing their 5th consecutive home game (huge positive) bu on the back end of a back to back at home (slight negative) and NY is playing their 3rd consecutive road game (negative). I’m going to lean towards Vegas here and not touch this one, but if I had a gun to my head, I would wager on NY covering. Boston gets destroyed on blocks and defensive rebounds (Noel) and NY is giving up a lot of steals (Smart/Brown/Tatum). The good news is even though I have this as a more than average chance of becoming a blowout, I do have this as the least likely game to become a blowout.

    NO@Bkn – Vegas has Brooklyn at 10.5 and I have them at 7.5. Brooklyn has a huge scheduling edge with their second straight home game (positive) and NO playing a back to back in their third consecutive road game (huge negative). Again, gun to my head, Brooklyn covers, but I’m not all over it. Brooklyn is giving up offensive rebounds at a massive rate (Steven Adams) while NO gets destroyed behind the arc and on assists (Irving). It will be interesting to see what Durant’s return does to Irving’s ownership and I love him in this spot.

    Mem@Atl – Vegas has Atlanta by 2.5 and I have Atlanta by 3. Both teams are playing the end of a B2B, and Atlanta is playing their third home game while Memphis is playing their third road game. B2Bs at home are much different than B2Bs on the road though and I have Atlanta with a sizeable edge here. It’s not my lock of the night, though I’m tempted, but I’ll have Atlanta to cover and some parlays where they win by 15 or more. Atlanta has been getting destroyed on offensive boards and blocks (JVal) and Memphis gives up steals and no boards (no one). Of course, all of this is saying Morant plays and if he’s out, I could very easily jump on Atlanta as my lock depending on where the spread ends up.

    Dal@Hou – Vegas has Dallas by 11, I have Dallas by 9. Houston is playing their third straight home game (slight negative) while Dallas plays the front end of a back to back on the road (positive) and travels one hour east (negative) for their first road game (negative). Yet another game I don’t want to touch, but if you put a gun to my head, I would say Dallas covers, but this is certainly the toughest one of the night. The New look Rockets are still getting destroyed on the boards (Kleber/Luka) and the worst at giving up steals (Richardson). Dallas is still giving 3s up at a massive rate (Wood, seriously.)

    Cha@OKC – Vegas has Charlotte by 4.5 and I only have them by a .5 point. OKC is playing the front end of a Back to back (huge negative) in their second straight home game (slight positive) while Charlotte is playing their 5th consecutive road game (positive) traveling 1 hour west (negative). I’m not on this one either, but I would take Charlotte to cover. Charlotte still gets destroyed on 3s, assists, and steals (Maledon, Svi) while OKC is second worst against steals (Rozier) and boards and 2pt FGs (Bridges).

    SA@Den – Denver is favored by 6.5 and I have them by 5. Denver does have the slight scheduling edge with playing a B2B at home (slight negative) in their third straight home game while SA goes west one hour (negative) to play their first road game (negative). I’m on Denver to cover and this is the second most likely game to become a blowout. Denver gives up nothing, even moreso with Aaron Gordon, which is surprising. SA gives up 3s (Murray/Porter) and the second worst at giving up blocks (no one, not even Joker).

    Uta@Pho – Utah is favored by 2. I have Utah by 1.5. However, Phoenix has 2 of the worst factors against them with playing the front end of a back to back at home and traveling 1 hour west while Utah opens a back to back on the road (positive), a second straight road game (positive) and also travels one hour west (slight negative). Right now, this is my lock of the night. Utah has the top scheduling advantage of the night and there should be little line movement barring a surprise scratch and I have this as the third most likely game to become a blowout, which also favors Utah. This is not my most confident lock pick in the past few weeks, but it’s not bad, but my confidence in Atlanta covering is growing and I’m like 51 Utah and 49 Atlanta for my lock of the night. Lately, no teams are better defensively than either of these and with the risk of a blowout, I’m fading this whole game in DFS.

    Good luck all.

    Great stuff. Can we get your dfs Masters golf break down?

  • mbunner23

    8:00 AM – Look over games to see who’s playing.

    6:30 PM – Jam in research, see half the NBA is OUT.

    6:56 PM – 6:59PM – Chaos, panic, put together quick lineup.

    7:30 PM – 8:30 PM – Late scratches, injuries, ejections.

    8:35 PM – ALCOHOL

  • Pierce85

    If Sabonis plays I charge it 100%
    He has already crushed the wolves, and without Turner he will have the ball

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @mbunner23 said...

    8:00 AM – Look over games to see who’s playing.

    6:30 PM – Jam in research, see half the NBA is OUT.

    6:56 PM – 6:59PM – Chaos, panic, put together quick lineup.

    7:30 PM – 8:30 PM – Late scratches, injuries, ejections.

    8:35 PM – ALCOHOL

    It started with cheese cake and oreos. Then that wasn’t enough. Then alcohol, but that doesn’t even cut it anymore. I’ve had to move on to aerosols. This season needs to end before I have to switch to tide pods. What a mess.

  • jlowery73

    2012 DDC Main Event Champion

    • 2014 FAFC Finalist

    • x3

      2015 FACFC Finalist

    I know this is normal April NBA….but this is not a normal schedule and we have MANY weeks left of this. Why does it seem like last week of regular season NBA DFS utter garbage already??

  • dominicanpapi

    @jlowery73 said...

    I know this is normal April NBA….but this is not a normal schedule and we have MANY weeks left of this. Why does it seem like last week of regular season NBA DFS utter garbage already??

    I think things will correct themselves in a week or two. If I’m not mistaken, the play in tournament consists of the 7-10 seeds in each conference so I would assume those teams will stop BSing and play tighter rotations.

  • Njsum1

    Lady Goga

  • Yukerboy

    • Blogger of the Month

    @miggs6876 said...

    Great stuff. Can we get your dfs Masters golf break down?

    I’d love to, but I can name three players. Four if you give me a minute.

  • charara1224

    Does anybody like fd pricing up the players like that?

  • dominicanpapi

    @charara1224 said...

    Does anybody like fd pricing up the players like that?

    I love it. I got so tired of seeing 400+ point nights.

  • dominicanpapi

    Quick thoughts:

    Washington/Orlando: Cole Anthony is playing, so it’s looking like Orlando is getting all of these players back which will make rotations a mess. Orlando is stay away for me. If Beal is out, you play Russ. If Beal is in, he’s 8300 on FD I believe which is absurd for a player like him. Keep your eye out on the Robin Lopez and Rui news news. If Lopez is out, and Rui is in, I can see Rui playing backup center tonight. If both guys are out, then Len becomes one of the better point per dollar plays of the night.

    Minnesota/Indiana: I assume Turner is out. Brogdon practiced two days ago but still missed last night’s game. Sabonis is questionable as well. If all 3 were to miss, Goga becomes really interesting, so does McDermott. Levert is 8500 on FD now which is pretty insane. He’s more expensive than Beal. I’m not sure on Lamb, he’s 4100 and it’s aback to back. He got there with 6 steals and a block, that’s 21 FD points off of that alone. If he’s not restricted in any way on a B2B, I think 4100 is solid but it does scream point chasing. If Brogdon is in and not limited, he’s a solid play. When key players are out for a team, we often put too much focus on the backups for that team but I feel like we ignore the other side of the matchup. If Indiana’s bigs are out, they don’t have anyone on that team that can stop KAT. Even though KAT is 11.4, he could have a monster game here. Just something to keep in mind.

    Nets/Pels: Irving is overpriced, if Durant is back with no minutes limit, I’m hammering that play on FD. Even if he plays 28 minutes, there’s no one on New Orleans that can stop him. He’s a 1.4 fp/min type of player with Levert, Dinwiddie and Harden off the floor. He’ll be priced up in the mid 9ks next slate, take advantage now. Ball is now 7800 and Brooklyn is tough defensively. IDK, I’m not all that interested in the Pelicans unless we get news that Zion and Ingram are.

    Knicks/Celtics: Not much here. I figured Time Lord will struggle with Embiid which is why I didn’t play him. Not like it mattered anyway. He’s $300 more expensive now going up against the Knicks, but again, I mentioned Len and Towns earlier. You may not need to play Williams in this spot, at least in tournaments.

  • dominicanpapi

    Grizzlies/Hawks: A couple of things, shoutout to the person who mentioned Bane last night. I didn’t play him, but the play made sense with Melton out. I also remember someone here played Kyle Anderson when Clarke was out last time and Slo Mo had a 40 burger. Both guys would be in play here if Melton and Clarke are out. Tyus Jones would be in play of Morant is ruled out. I also think JV could get extra minutes here with the combination of Capela being the opposing center, and Clarke potentially being out. Over on the Hawks side, FD moved Gallo to PF, Bogdan is still 7200, and I can’t get Young right. I think he’s a solid play for his price, but I may not be going there.

    Mavs/Rockets: This is somewhat simple for me, if KP is out, Luka becomes one of the better plays of the night. He might be regardless of KP’s status. Not fond of KP if he plays. I suppose THJ and Richardson are OK plays here too. Over on the Houston side, KPJ is still 6600 on FD and Christian Wood is fairly priced to the point where he’s probably the best priced PF on FD? He shot 8 of 21 from the field last game, if he had made a handful more baskets, it could have been a completely different game for him. That’s really where I’m at there with Houston.

    Hornets/OKC: Favorite game of the night. Love Rozier at 7400 against OKC, Graham is OK at 6600 but he’s hovering around mid 20s in minutes so I don’t think there’s any meat on the bone left. Bridges is 5800, steep for a player like him not sure if I’m willing to go there but he’s intriguing. On the OKC side, I got burned by Kenrich Wiliams and with them adding a couple of more guys to the rotation it feels like the only players that are safe are Poku and Moses Brown. I think Brown’s minutes have been down b/c OKC has lost by at least 20 points in the last 3 games, think he’s a good buy low candidate on today’s slate.

    Spurs/Nuggets and Jazz/Suns: I don’t have a lot of interest in both games barring any any injury news. Will be interesting to see if Conley sits tonight or tomorrow.

  • frugal

    @jlowery73 said...

    I know this is normal April NBA….but this is not a normal schedule and we have MANY weeks left of this. Why does it seem like last week of regular season NBA DFS utter garbage already??

    That’s been my feel of late. Really pointless to do anything before the 5:30 ET injury report.

  • jfitzgan

    Ja is in so that takes some shine off of potential grizz value. Melton still out though. I legit hate every name I look at. Was hoping maybe lamb would be in play but now he’s questionable. I’m pretty lost. More so than usual. And I’ve never seen the board more quiet 3 1/2 before tip off.

  • Tweety888

    3:20, only 1 page…everyone give up on NBA

  • mbunner23

    @Tweety888 said...

    3:20, only 1 page…everyone give up on NBA

    No, it’s just impossible to even think what’s going to happen before lock. The good plays now, might not be the best plays later. I won’t even start looking until 6 at the earliest.

  • Tweety888

    @mbunner23 said...

    No, it’s just impossible to even think what’s going to happen before lock. The good plays now, might not be the best plays later. I won’t even start looking until 6 at the earliest.

    I hear ya…as of right now, I almost have the same lineup as last night…worries me

  • dominicanpapi

    @frugal said...

    That’s been my feel of late. Really pointless to do anything before the 5:30 ET injury report.

    And sometimes the 5:30 is useless.

  • Dunl0p

    Between 6:00 and 7:00 I am often busy with the kids/bath/dinner/etc… Unless I know I’ll be available, I am playing very lightly or fading early games wich is not always ideal… this year, I am playing a lot less than I usually do/want with all this bs

  • miggs6876

    @charara1224 said...

    Does anybody like fd pricing up the players like that?

    I like it too. Tighter is more challenging.

  • casper

    @miggs6876 said...

    I like it too. Tighter is more challenging.

    I hope she s 18😂

  • miggs6876

    @dominicanpapi said...

    Grizzlies/Hawks: A couple of things, shoutout to the person who mentioned Bane last night. I didn’t play him, but the play made sense with Melton out. I also remember someone here played Kyle Anderson when Clarke was out last time and Slo Mo had a 40 burger. Both guys would be in play here if Melton and Clarke are out. Tyus Jones would be in play of Morant is ruled out. I also think JV could get extra minutes here with the combination of Capela being the opposing center, and Clarke potentially being out. Over on the Hawks side, FD moved Gallo to PF, Bogdan is still 7200, and I can’t get Young right. I think he’s a solid play for his price, but I may not be going there.

    Mavs/Rockets: This is somewhat simple for me, if KP is out, Luka becomes one of the better plays of the night. He might be regardless of KP’s status. Not fond of KP if he plays. I suppose THJ and Richardson are OK plays here too. Over on the Houston side, KPJ is still 6600 on FD and Christian Wood is fairly priced to the point where he’s probably the best priced PF on FD? He shot 8 of 21 from the field last game, if he had made a handful more baskets, it could have been a completely different game for him. That’s really where I’m at there with Houston.

    Hornets/OKC: Favorite game of the night. Love Rozier at 7400 against OKC, Graham is OK at 6600 but he’s hovering around mid 20s in minutes so I don’t think there’s any meat on the bone left. Bridges is 5800, steep for a player like him not sure if I’m willing to go there but he’s intriguing. On the OKC side, I got burned by Kenrich Wiliams and with them adding a couple of more guys to the rotation it feels like the only players that are safe are Poku and Moses Brown. I think Brown’s minutes have been down b/c OKC has lost by at least 20 points in the last 3 games, think he’s a good buy low candidate on today’s slate.

    Spurs/Nuggets and Jazz/Suns: I don’t have a lot of interest in both games barring any any injury news. Will be interesting to see if Conley sits tonight or tomorrow.

    Nice write up!

  • chronoxiong

    Damn. Only one page of NBA discussion. And its afternoon here in the west coast. This is depressing. Losing money nightly due to bullshit like what transpires in NBA sucks too..

  • Brendan239

    Is Jaylen Hoard the best OKC play on FD? Svi will be 35% owned. Speaking of Jaylen, Jaylen Brown will be in all 3 of my FD LUs. Is Bertrand still too cheap, even if Beal plays? Beal is a lock if he’s in BTW.

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