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  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    7:30 PM EST : Chicago ( ) at Toronto ( ) — T:
    7:30 PM EST : LA Lakers ( 8 ) at Miami ( -8 ) — T: 204.5
    8:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( -2 ) at Oklahoma City ( 2 ) — T: 212
    9:00 PM EST : Milwaukee ( ) at Dallas ( ) — T:
    10:00 PM EST : Phoenix ( 5 ) at LA Clippers ( -5 ) — T: 224
    10:00 PM EST : Detroit ( 4.5 ) at Sacramento ( -4.5 ) — T: 228
    10:00 PM EST : Portland ( 7 ) at Utah ( -7 ) — T: 231

    RG NBA DRAFTKINGS LEAGUE

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s NBA thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • truegrinder

    It’s Dario Saric and Cedi Osnan birthday today. Not sure on there matchups but might be something to look at?

  • Yukerboy

    • Blogger of the Month

    Dropped to 12-5 on my locks after the Utah OT loss. If you’re 12-5, are they really locks? I digress…

    After that Hou/Dal game, I started working on a team specific scheduling factor spreadsheet. Did you know Dallas is 2-8 in their first game on the road? I didn’t. I do now. The hard part is deciphering the signal from the noise and Nate Silver’s book on exactly that has been beneficial.

    LAL@Mia – Vegas has Miami favored by 8.5, but I have them by only 3.5 and that’s before the scheduling factors. No back to backs to worry about here, but Miami is playing a 4th straight home game, which is actually a slight negative, and Miami itself is 0-3 in such games. Playing home with no time zone changes give home teams a slight edge, but Miami has a losing record in those games. Meanwhile, Lakers are playing their fourth straight road game which is a big positive, with no time zone change on the road, which is a slight negative, but the Lakers are 10-4 in such games. I’m very close to making this my lock of the day with the Lakers easily covering that massive spread. Add in the fact that Miami is the absolute worst team at giving up offensive rebounds and what should be a good to go Andre Drummond is one of the best at it and I’m loving this spot for him today. As I was typing this, Miami spread already dropped .5 a point and I’m getting on it now.

    Chi@Tor – Vegas has Chicago by 3.5 and I have them by 7. Chicago is one of those teams I love to love, admittedly. Toronto is also playing its fourth straight home game, a slight negative and Toronto is 0-1 in those games. Toronto also has no time zone changes, which should be a slight positive, but Toronto is 7-12 in those games while being 4-1 in all other home games. Meanwhile, Chicago is playing the front end of a back to back on the road which is a positive and Chicago has proven that going 5-2 in road FB2Bs while going only 6-10 in all other road games. Chicago is also playing their 2nd consecutive road game, which is a positive, and Chicago again is 4-2 in those, 7-10 in all other road games. Chicago is also looking at no time zone change on the road, which should be a slight negative, but Chicago is 5-5 in those games and 6-7 in all other road games. All told, Chicago is being undersold by Vegas here and I’m on them. Right now, I’m torn between Chicago and the Lakers for the lock of the night, but don’t be surprised if I go both. Toronto is second only to Miami in giving up offensive rebounds and Thaddeus Young is the best at it on the Bulls. Toronto is the worst at giving up blocks, but Vuc is the best on Chicago and I still have him with no more than 1. Meanwhile, Chicago gives up way more than normal free throws and steals, both benefitting Siakam. I do have this game third on my list of potential blowouts, so be a little wary there.

    Cle@OKC – Why this game isn’t on TNT is beyond me. I kid, I kid…I was surprised to see Vegas having Cleveland favored by 3.5 and thought for sure this would be my lock of the night when I first looked at the schedule yesterday. I do have Cleveland by 6 here and that’s assuming all of the OKC questionables play. OKC is playing a B2B at home which is a slight negative, but OKC is 2-6 in those games while 7-11 in all other home games. OKC is also playing in their 3rd straight home game, which is actually a slight negative, but not for OKC who is 4-2 in those games and 5-15 in all other home games. No Time Zone change which is a slight positive and even moreso for OKC who is 8-12 in those games and only 1-5 in all other home games. Meanwhile, the Cavs play their 3rd consecutive road game, which is a negative, but terrible for the Cavs who are 0-4 in those games and 7-15 in all other road games. No time zone change for the Cavs on the road means a slight negative, but the Cavs are one of the worst at 3-11 while being 4-8 in all other road games. Keep in mind that as I’m typing this, I’m walking through it for the first time too, so bear with me, but looking this over, I’m actually liking the OKC edge here. Probably won’t touch this one much, but if I do, it’ll be that OKC moneyline. OKC is terrible at giving up rebounds and steals, which benefit Garland and Hartenstein. One thing they don’t do is foul even with Moses in, which hurts Sexton whose scoring is 20% dependent on getting to the charity stripe. Cleveland is actually strong defensively, giving up Bleals more than average which benefits Moses.

    Mil@Dal – Vegas has Milwaukee by 1.5 and I have Dallas by 2.5. However, that’s before th biggest scheduling edge of the night going in Milwaukee’s favor. Dallas is playing a B2B at home which should be a slight negative, but Dallas is 1-3 in those games. Then, it’s their first home game, which should be a slight positive, yet Dallas is 4-7 in those games and 8-3 in all other home games. No Time zone change is a very slight positive and Dallas is 8-6 in those games while 4-4 in all other home games. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is playing the front of a B2B on the road which is a positive and even moreso for the Bucks where they are 3-1 while being 15-6 in all other road games. Milwaukee is playing their 5+ consecutive road game which should be a huge positive, but Milwaukee is 0-3 in those games. This is where I seperate the noise. Milwaukee should not be 0-3 in anything and this just tells me they are due. Finally, Milwaukee is traveling 2 hours east for a road game, which they haven’t done yet, but NBA teams who do are 22-10, the biggest single road advantage a team can have. All in all, Milwaukee’s winning this game and I don’t know by how much. I won’t be touching much of this. Boith teams give up a large amount of threes, but Milwaukee is the worst there is. Look for Donc and Holiday to get into a pull up 3 contest here, with Hardaway also having a decent game.

    Det@Sac – Vegas has Sacramento by 6.5 and I have them by 8. However, Sacramento has the second best scheduling edge and this is number two on my blowout list, so I’ll be jumping on that -14.5 line for Sacramento. The Kings are playing their first home game which is an extremely slight positive, but the Kings are 6-3 in those and only 6-11 in all other home games. Then they are traveling 2 hours back to home to play this game which is the single biggest edge a home team can have, going 14-6 in those games and the Kings are 1-0 in those games. Detroit is playing their third consecutive road game which is already a negative and Detroit is 0-3 in those games. Detroit also travels one hour west for this game which is a sizeable negative and Detroit is 2-6 in those games, slightly worse than their 4-15 road record when they are not traveling one hour west. With such a large spread, I can’t make it my lock, but I am certainly on Sacramento here to cover and already mentioned I’ll be betting on the blowout here. Sacramento gives up points, especially on free throws, which benefits Diallo and Plumlee. Detroit doesn’t give up much and with the blowout potential, I won’t be high on anyone from Sacramento.

    Por@Utah – Vegas has Utah by 7, but I have Portland by .5. Portland should have the scheudling edge, but let’s walk through this. Utah is playing a B2B at home, which is a negative, but Utah is 4-0 in those and 18-2 in all other home games. Utah is playing their first home game which should be a slight positive and is 8-2 in those and 14-0 in all others. They have no time zone change and are 16-0 in those while 6-2 in all other home games. Portland is playing their second consecutive road game, which should be a positive and they are 3-3 on those while 12-7 in all other road games. Portland also travels 1 hour east which is a slight negative and they are 1-1 in those games while 14-9 in all other road games. All of the sudden, the Portland edge I was seeing isn’t there anymore and I’m not touching this one. Portland gives up scoring and defensive rebounds, Utah gives up nothing. Liking Mitchell here. Obviously Gobert is in a good spot. Ingles will be an overowned good play here too.

    Pho@LAC – Vegas has LAC by 5 and I have them by 1. However, I do have LAC with a sizeable scheduling edge. LAC is playing the front end of a B2B at home, which is a bad negative, but LAC is 3-1 in those and 16-7 in all other home games. LAC is also playing their 5+ consecutive home game, astrong positive, which they are 3-1 in and 16-7 in all other home games. Also, no Time Zone change means a slight positive and LAC is 15-5 in those and only 4-3 in all other home games. Meanwhile, Phoenix is playing the back end of a B2B on the road which is a huge negative though they are 3-1 in those and 14-5 in all other road games. They are playing their first road game which is a negative, and the Suns are 7-3 in those and 10-3 in all other road games. Finally, the Suns travel 1 hour West which is a negative and they are 1-2 in those and 16-4 in all other road games. All in all, I like the Clippers to cover here, but won’t play much of that line. What I will play is that blowout line of the Clippers to cover 14.5 as this is the number one cnadidate for a blowout and I’m thinking if that happens, it’s the Clippers. Phoenix gives up nothing, Clippers give up little, and with the potential blowout, I’m a complete fade here.

    Looking things back over, I’m taking the Lakers to cover as my lock of the night, but I’m still on that Chicago spread with the Clippers covering and then the Clippers covering a big blowout being my next two, then Sacramento, Millwaukee, and OKC.

    Good luck all.

  • Tribefan18

    I’m liking a core of Mitchell, vuc, and plumlee

  • Pierce85

    I’m going to Siakam tonight, maybe Bogdanovic/Mitchell without Conley and Jrue

  • dominicanpapi

    Moses Brown is $5100 on FD tonight. I know he’s been struggling but sheesh…

  • Njsum1

    @Yukerboy said...

    Dropped to 12-5 on my locks after the Utah OT loss. If you’re 12-5, are they really locks? I digress

    In this Yes they are

  • Njsum1

    @Pierce85 said...

    I’m going to Siakam tonight

    You just make sure you run that back with the Vooooooooooooooochhhhhhhhhh

  • Brendan239

    Revenge for Joseph or just play Killian?

  • fleishmo6

    I am playing Killian and Fox on FD

  • zeeshan2

    Like Vuc, Steve Urkelle, Bembry, Schroder, Dorian Finney, Theo, Ayton, Paul George, Hayes, Holmes, and Prince today

  • damionismyname

    Bembry and vanvleet suspended one game. Flynn szn

  • gaelicgirl

    @damionismyname said...

    Bembry and vanvleet suspended one game. Flynn szn

    For going onto the court?

  • damionismyname

    @gaelicgirl said...

    For going onto the court?

    not sure but THT is suspended also.

  • tmarohl

    Why the hell would the magic cut this dude?

    Adrian Wojnarowski
    @wojespn
    ·
    1h
    ESPN story on center Khem Birch planning to sign with the Toronto Raptors upon clearing waivers:

  • tmarohl

    @damionismyname said...

    Bembry and vanvleet suspended one game. Flynn szn

    Freddy V was already out for tonight because of injury. Does that count, or will he be suspended once he is healthy enough to play?

  • gaelicgirl

    Warriors are signing The Mitten to a 10-Day. Consider yourselves warned!

  • damionismyname

    @tmarohl said...

    Freddy V was already out for tonight because of injury. Does that count, or will he be suspended once he is healthy enough to play?

    he will serve the suspension when he is healthy they say.

  • tmarohl

    @gaelicgirl said...

    Warriors are signing The Mitten to a 10-Day. Consider yourselves warned!

    Just bench fodder or will he take some playing time away from someone?

  • bazerko

    Kyle Kuzma downgraded to questionable. I had zero interest in the Lakers tonight, but now I have to take a look at them

  • gaelicgirl

    @tmarohl said...

    Just bench fodder or will he take some playing time away from someone?

    Auditioning for a role on next season’s bench would be my guess, the current bench is a dumpster fire.

  • gaelicgirl

    In addition to the suspensions, OG and Harrell have been fined $30K and $20K, respectively.

  • tmarohl

    @gaelicgirl said...

    Auditioning for a role on next season’s bench would be my guess, the current bench is a dumpster fire.

    You need to figure out a way to get Juan more playing time.

  • tmarohl

    @bazerko said...

    Kyle Kuzma downgraded to questionable. I had zero interest in the Lakers tonight, but now I have to take a look at them

    Yeah, no THT either. Could it be a Kief night? Could they roll Drummond and Trez out at the same time?

  • gaelicgirl

    @tmarohl said...

    You need to figure out a way to get Juan more playing time.

    And Nico. I suspect he’ll be returning next season and playing alongside Poole.

  • bazerko

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of the Lakers scrubs (Caruso, KCP or Matthews) end up in the winning lineup. This game was already going to be bad, but Miami could easily win this game by double digits if Kuzma is not in.

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