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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    7:00pm Atlanta at Washington(-3) —- T:197.0 (Hawks lead series 3-2)
    9:30pm Golden State(-5) at Memphis —- T:193.5 (Warriors lead series 3-2)

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. Please make it a point to say if you’re talking about Cash or GPP options

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    @bmann said...

    Overall seems like a very solid tack for tonight’s slate. But you’re missing Livingston and I’d be careful with Vince. Livingston seems to be getting all of the minutes Barbosa, who is basically out of the rotation, has given up, and VC’s price has increased while his minutes will go down tonight with Tony Allen back.

    Only like Livingston if it’s a blow out. Don’t think it will be. Would much rather have one of the four starters at PG and punt elsewhere.

    Don’t love Carter but he’s cheap enough where some exposure won’t kill me.

  • rsquier

    I haven’t done well with these 4 teams so I looked at the top 10 scores in the tourneys that I’ve played in form these 4 teams. I had hard time finding standings from the May 3 rd games, so this only goes back to the first 4 games. The top owned players that fulfill the position requirements on FD were the following: Horford, Nene, Randolph, Porter, Pierce, Beal, Thompson, Curry, Teague. That group is 2200 over the cap so that can’t be a legal LU, however I’m using that as a starting point as I haven’t cashed with this grouping yet. Beal has been in 92.5% of the top 10 lu’s, Curry 80%, Horford, Teague, Nene all 60%. So I guess that’s my core. Some of the percentages are probably skewed b/c of wall and Carroll not bring at 100% and everyone on porter at the beginning of the series so I’m taking that into account. I know the series are organic and change daily but there were no muscala’s, lee’s, beno’s, and bazemore only appeared twice. The average top 10 score is 301 and average winning score is 310.

  • rebkell

    @Carrot said...

    Can’t remember, does tony Allen play on curry or Thompson?

    Mostly Thompson.

  • Deadleemcdagger

    How you guys feel about wall,beal, gasol, iggy core

  • Jflack3

    Can’t figure out the SG 2 spot. Allen back should hamper Klay right?

  • rebkell

    @Jflack3 said...

    Can’t figure out the SG 2 spot. Allen back should hamper Klay right?

    Probably depends on how Joerger plays the players, actually last game Jeff Green shut out Klay while they were on the court together, which I think was around 6 minutes or so.

  • zpa1989

    Does korver bounce back today? Just seems like he can’t get it going in this series. If you say Allen shuts down klay, other than Beal who do you play? Lee hasn’t hit value recently even at his low price point on fd. Allens ceiling is kind of low plus he’s a little banged up and hasnt hit value either. Only other ideas I can think of is punt bazemore

  • Jflack3

    Think I’ll do 2 LU’s…one early stack, one late stack. After what happened last night…

  • Deadleemcdagger

    I’m running with wall,beal, iggy, d lee, horford, Conley, Barnes, and gortat…

  • IronMonkey415

    Muscala time!!!!!

    I’ll punt him in one lineup.

  • djjimmyjames

    Randolph or Green? Randolph has not played as well the last 2 games (21.2,24.5). Green last 2 (35, 27.5)

  • TheWalrus82

    @zpa1989 said...

    Does korver bounce back today? Just seems like he can’t get it going in this series. If you say Allen shuts down klay, other than Beal who do you play? Lee hasn’t hit value recently even at his low price point on fd. Allens ceiling is kind of low plus he’s a little banged up and hasnt hit value either. Only other ideas I can think of is punt bazemore

    In short…Beal is unfadeable.

  • salarycapfantasy

    @NCRick said...

    Value is 5X though, not 4. 4X will get you 240 points, 5X is 300. 300 is generally what it takes.

    You forget, it is the playoffs. Two game slates. The winner in the last 2 game slate of these teams had a whooping 291.6 so throw your regular season ideals out the window. 4X is fine.

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    @TheWalrus82 said...

    In short…Beal is unfadeable.

    He really is. I ran through my projections, used my spreadsheet, sorted by top 40 projected lineups and he was in every single one of them.

    Some other interesting observations to give you all some insight into how my lineups will look:

    —Only centers will be Horford or Gasol.
    —Hilario is in 24 of the 40. Randolph is in 33 of the 40. Didn’t like Millsap (8) or Green (9) – guessing it’s because of price to fit in other players.
    —Klay’s in a bunch (30)
    —small forward is split up pretty evenly but only 6 Carroll (which makes sense because you can pretty much hit same value with the 4-5K guys)
    —point guard very evenly distributed between the five key PG’s (the four starters and Schroder)

  • shockermandan

    • Moderator

    @thehazyone said...

    He really is. I ran through my projections, used my spreadsheet, sorted by top 40 projected lineups and he was in every single one of them.

    Some other interesting observations to give you all some insight into how my lineups will look:

    —Only centers will be Horford or Gasol.
    —Hilario is in 24 of the 40. Randolph is in 33 of the 40. Didn’t like Millsap (8) or Green (9) – guessing it’s because of price to fit in other players.
    —Klay’s in a bunch (30)
    —small forward is split up pretty evenly but only 6 Carroll (which makes sense because you can pretty much hit same value with the 4-5K guys)
    —point guard very evenly distributed between the five key PG’s (the four starters and Schroder)

    Hazy, are you using some sort of solver you built to get to your “Top 40” projected lineups?

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    @shockermandan said...

    Hazy, are you using some sort of solver you built to get to your “Top 40” projected lineups?

    yea, it’s called the rotogrinders line up builder. I figure out my projected values, plug them into that, grab the top 50 from a generate lineups. Copy/paste those into spreadsheet, generate lineups again and rinse/repeat until I have X number of total lineups. Sort by projected score, remove the duplicates, and use the top scores.

    It’s worked well for me – have to trust the numbers even if it’s hard to want to ignore them sometimes (like I hate that I am relying so much on four players tonight, especially when two of them are Zach Randolph and Nene Hilario). I usually add 5 lineups that completely ignore the projections – just lineups I want to go with (this is where I will usually punt big time).

  • jonconnington

    @thehazyone said...

    He really is. I ran through my projections, used my spreadsheet, sorted by top 40 projected lineups and he was in every single one of them.

    Some other interesting observations to give you all some insight into how my lineups will look:

    —Only centers will be Horford or Gasol.
    —Hilario is in 24 of the 40. Randolph is in 33 of the 40. Didn’t like Millsap (8) or Green (9) – guessing it’s because of price to fit in other players.
    —Klay’s in a bunch (30)
    —small forward is split up pretty evenly but only 6 Carroll (which makes sense because you can pretty much hit same value with the 4-5K guys)
    —point guard very evenly distributed between the five key PG’s (the four starters and Schroder)

    Why Klay so much? I don’t think he has any upside with Allen n him. Is it just because the other options are so bad his 25-30 points are well worth the price?

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    just the way the numbers ran I guess – I’m not that huge a fan of him but I also think he’s safer than the other options and definitely has more upside than the other options. I have him projected at 29.64 fwiw.

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    Wasn’t a huge fan of having so much Tristan Thompson and Shumpert yesterday either but I stuck with what the projections told me lol. There are definitely days where the numbers fail though so take anything I say with a grain of salt.

  • mabrla

    I am going absolutely HAM tonight. Aside from research, I took today off and am currently watching every single game of both series’ to try to help predict the changes that all coaches would make based on what does and doesn’t work.

    Everything is telling me to stay away from Millsap…but my gut wants to play with a Wall/ Beal/ Millsap/ Gasol core….

    I’m 0-121 these playoffs what should I do??

  • DK_Ninjaaaaa

    @thehazyone said...

    Wasn’t a huge fan of having so much Tristan Thompson and Shumpert yesterday either but I stuck with what the projections told me lol. There are definitely days where the numbers fail though so take anything I say with a grain of salt.

    it’s all a balance of research and these kinds of tools. i built my own value finder spreadsheet and i get some wack ass LU’s sometimes so i tend to do a little of both when i construct rosters. nothing beats the eye test and actually watching matchups especially in playoffs. pay attention to home/road splits, etc…
    the best advice is do not, i repeat, do not just go off of stuff that goes through this forum on a daily basis hahaha. love you guys but i see some total BS go through here.

  • mabrla

    @DK_Ninjaaaaa said...

    it’s all a balance of research and these kinds of tools. i built my own value finder spreadsheet and i get some wack ass LU’s sometimes so i tend to do a little of both when i construct rosters. nothing beats the eye test and actually watching matchups especially in playoffs. pay attention to home/road splits, etc…
    the best advice is do not, i repeat, do not just go off of stuff that goes through this forum on a daily basis hahaha. love you guys but i see some total BS go through here.

    I used to win 5/7 days with one lineup every night during the regular season.. then since I found this forum I haven’t even cashed one time.

    I’m not sure if my head is being thrown off from reading this, or it’s just my own bad luck.

  • shockermandan

    • Moderator

    @thehazyone said...

    yea, it’s called the rotogrinders line up builder. I figure out my projected values, plug them into that, grab the top 50 from a generate lineups. Copy/paste those into spreadsheet, generate lineups again and rinse/repeat until I have X number of total lineups. Sort by projected score, remove the duplicates, and use the top scores.

    It’s worked well for me – have to trust the numbers even if it’s hard to want to ignore them sometimes (like I hate that I am relying so much on four players tonight, especially when two of them are Zach Randolph and Nene Hilario). I usually add 5 lineups that completely ignore the projections – just lineups I want to go with (this is where I will usually punt big time).

    Ah I haven’t tried using that. I built a solver in Excel, but the problem is I wish I could get it to build me 100 lineups at a time instead of having to re-solve every time I update my projections.

    Do you generate multiple sets of projections for each player, or do you generate the top X number of possible lineups using the same projections?

    To make this post somewhat relevant, I’m all Beal, mostly Nene, all Horford.

  • TheWalrus82

    To add to the silly NBA fantasy projector machine…I built a spreadsheet that calculates DFS salary vs FPPG over the course of the entire year…this is the lineup it generated last night (cashed in all DK contests it was in)…it missed on a few guys but has mostly been solid this post season…

    Pos Player FPTS
    PG Chris Paul 57.25 lock
    SG Corey Brewer 38.5 lock
    SF Trevor Ariza 25.75 lock
    PF Terrence Jones 26.75 lock
    C Joakim Noah 22.25 lock
    G Iman Shumpert 34.75 lock
    F LeBron James 46.25 lock
    UTIL J.J. Redick 23.25 lock
    TOTAL FANTASY POINTS: 274.75

    link to the sharpshooter https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/6405674?uc=83828809

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    @DK_Ninjaaaaa said...

    it’s all a balance of research and these kinds of tools. i built my own value finder spreadsheet and i get some wack ass LU’s sometimes so i tend to do a little of both when i construct rosters. nothing beats the eye test and actually watching matchups especially in playoffs. pay attention to home/road splits, etc…
    the best advice is do not, i repeat, do not just go off of stuff that goes through this forum on a daily basis hahaha. love you guys but i see some total BS go through here.

    I totally ignore these forums when it comes to player advice. Anytime I see the words “is a must play” I just shake my head unless that player is Russell Westbrook at 10K with Kevin Durant out… that being said, I love reading these forums to see what people are thinking and to allow me to go contrarian in certain situations. If I see that every one is on X player, I might still have some of X player but I’ll make sure I have some of Y and Z as well.

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