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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    9:00 PM EST : LA Lakers ( -6.5 ) at Denver ( 6.5 ) —- T: 214

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s NBA thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • miggs6876

    Play the same or very similar winning line up. Jokic, Davis, and Murray with cheap Lakers like Caruso, Green, and KCP. Maybe throw in a Milsap, MPJ, Grant, or a sneaky Dozier.

  • SteeloCity

    @miggs6876 said...

    Play the same or very similar winning line up. Jokic, Davis, and Murray with cheap Lakers like Caruso, Green, and KCP. Maybe throw in a Milsap, MPJ, Grant, or a sneaky Dozier.

    With you on this. Hopefully one of us can split with 100 people!

  • SteeloCity

    Is it worth it to play the Tuesday Million on FD?

  • Brendan239

    I will give you a spoiler. You are not going to explain it because there are no arguments. You want to assume that you are right, but you could not be farther away from a solid conclusion. No premises support your reasoning and that is why your lifelong betting balance is in red numbers. Denver matches up horribly against the Lakers.

    Jokic vs AD is not a good matchup for Jokic. I cannot think of a tougher matchup to be honest.

    You could be mislead to thinking that Jamal Murray will have a much easier task against the Lakers than the Pat Bev. However, Rajon Rondo is probably the most underrated defender in the history of the NBA. That SOB gets into your head and is constantly “teasing” (yeah that is the right word), in the sense that he is making all these small fouls the whole game, which go uncalled.

    To be honest, I cannot see a worse matchup for the Nuggets. The Nuggets match up well against the Rockets, or against Dallas. And the stats confirm my reasoning. This season the Lakers won 3 and the Nuggets won 1. LBJ did not play in the game that the Nuggets won.

    In order for Denver to win they need that Gary Harris and Porter are lights out. The key to beat the lakers is good shooting from the perimeter and a physical defensive center. The Heat or the Celtics have a better chance to bet LA than the Nuggets do.

    You are welcome. That is how you approach a game

  • SteeloCity

    I appreciate the insight. I don’t think anyone was doubting the Lakers against the Nuggets, just discussing the most ideal lineup to win some money.

  • Brendan239

    Danny Green 35 FD point day. Also, Rondos going to put up one of his 50 burgers over the next couple of games.

  • Wooden_Bones

    @Brendan239 said...

    Also, Rondos going to put up one of his 50 burgers over the next couple of games.

    Thanks, Nostradamus. If I could place a bet that this won’t happen I would. As much as I believe playoff Rondo is a real thing, a 50 burger is not.

  • got9forya

    Going with AD as Captain and building from their. I would rather go Caruso then Rondo tonight. Could be wrong though

  • SteeloCity

    Hmm, Howard + Caruso or KCP + Danny G

  • Wooden_Bones

    @SteeloCity said...

    Hmm, Howard + Caruso or KCP + Danny G

    I like Danny Green tonight. He’s been pretty consistent recently.

  • gaelicgirl

    @Brendan239 said...

    In order for Denver to win they need that Gary Harris and Porter are lights out. The key to beat the lakers is good shooting from the perimeter and a physical defensive center.

    Agree with the first part of your premise, and that’s why I’ve taken Harris the first two games. MPJ is already their third best scorer, but they need Harris to be a credible threat. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to hit the broad side of a barn thus far.

    But I think the key to beating the Lakers is to force them to shoot rather than letting them get easy layups and dunks at the basket. Take away their size advantage in the paint, so you don’t need a physical defensive center as much.

    Malone’s fatal mistake in the last game, IMHO, was bringing Plumlee in at the end instead of Harris. They would have been better off with a smaller but more tenacious perimeter defender. Jokic saw what was going to happen at the last second and came off his man to defend AD, but it was too late to stop the dagger buzzer-beater. Malone needs to not fall into the trap of trying to match the Lakers’ size, which is the same mistake I think Spoelstra made last game by going small to match the Celtics at the end instead of sticking with Bam.

  • JSteele

    @Brendan239 said...

    I will give you a spoiler. You are not going to explain it because there are no arguments. You want to assume that you are right, but you could not be farther away from a solid conclusion. No premises support your reasoning and that is why your lifelong betting balance is in red numbers. Denver matches up horribly against the Lakers.

    Jokic vs AD is not a good matchup for Jokic. I cannot think of a tougher matchup to be honest.

    You could be mislead to thinking that Jamal Murray will have a much easier task against the Lakers than the Pat Bev. However, Rajon Rondo is probably the most underrated defender in the history of the NBA. That SOB gets into your head and is constantly “teasing” (yeah that is the right word), in the sense that he is making all these small fouls the whole game, which go uncalled.

    To be honest, I cannot see a worse matchup for the Nuggets. The Nuggets match up well against the Rockets, or against Dallas. And the stats confirm my reasoning. This season the Lakers won 3 and the Nuggets won 1. LBJ did not play in the game that the Nuggets won.

    In order for Denver to win they need that Gary Harris and Porter are lights out. The key to beat the lakers is good shooting from the perimeter and a physical defensive center. The Heat or the Celtics have a better chance to bet LA than the Nuggets do.

    You are welcome. That is how you approach a game

    I like arguing with you so let me give it a try.

    In game 1, Murray, Jokic and Millsap all spent a ton of time on the bench with foul trouble. The Lakers were killing them in transition and had a sizeable FT advantage.

    In game 2, the Nuggets had the FT advantage, and nearly won the game. If AD missed that buzzer beater, the series would be tied 1-1.

    You mention Jokic vs AD, but Jokic is the best passing big man in the league. He finds the open guy if he doesn’t have a clear path to a shot. The Nuggets also utilize a number of screens, pick and pops, pick and rolls etc. to get the ball to their guy. I don’t think Jokic vs AD matters as much as you claim here.

    The Lakers have a lot of speed and crush teams in transition off misses. This was evident in game 1. The Nuggets adjusted by playing slower in game 2 and getting to the line. Taking away the Lakers transition game will be one of the keys for the Nuggets and they showed exactly how to do that in game 2.

    For the same reason that AD vs Jokic doesn’t matter, 21 minutes of Rondo doesn’t matter for Murray as he doesn’t play iso ball that much, he will come off a screen and either pass the ball if he’s covered or take a good shot if he has a path to do it.

    Gary Harris and Michael Porter will not be the key. Jerami Grant is on LeBron duty this series, but it really just comes down to a couple bounces, better free throw shooting, stepping up on D, and getting back in transition.

    You mention the season series, but that is irrelevant here.

    8/10: Nuggets starters played mid 20s minutes as there was nothing to play for.
    2/12: No Michael Porter Jr. for the Nuggets and Avery Bradley was playing for the Lakers. Somewhat minor lineup changes.
    12/22: No LeBron
    12/3: Closest Rosters to playoffs and the Lakers won.

    The winning margin for the 3 games with LeBron? 3, 4, and 9. It’s a lot closer than you make it seem to be.

    The key to beating the Lakers, is transition defense. Take good shots on offense and limit their ability to run the floor. Make them play a half court game and the Nuggets have a chance. a physical defensive center isn’t going to hang around with AD on the perimeter, or run the floor while LeBron is quarterbacking passes down court.

    My last point is that you should never count out a team playing in desperation, especially the Nuggets. Remember, they were down 3-1 in both of their other series’. I think the Nuggets win tonight. It will be close, but I think they pull through.

  • jdtrey

    I’m a bigger believer in Playoff Rondo than most but he won’t see minutes to even sniff 50 in the next few games. They simply won’t need him this series after that game 1 performance.

    Lakers still win this series in 5 .. and they’re making it seem closer than it really is. That game the other night wasn’t as close as a normal 2 point game is, the Lakers were in full control of that game until they let the Nuggets back in at the end.

    And regarding the defense on Jamal Murray, sure PatBev is annoying and PG CAN be a good defender when he wants to be engaged. The Clips, just like the Jazz, didn’t have the sheer number of plus defenders they could throw in front of him. He’ll get his in a couple of games this series just due to how well he’s shooting and the fact that he’ll keep coming but this is a much tougher matchup for him than most people want to realize or accept. (again not saying he doesn’t have good games this series)

  • bazerko

    This series has been determined by FTs in my opinion. Lakers shot 37 FTs in game one and pretty much blew out Denver. While in game 2 they only had 19 FTs and it took a last second buzzer beater to win the game. Denver on the flip side shot 28 FTs in game 1 and 33 FTs in game 2.

    The spread for game 3 has the Lakers as 6.5 point favourites. I think Denver could not only cover this number but also win the game. I think Lebron is the play from LA, as Denver hasn’t really been able to slow him down in the first two games. AD on the other hand is someone who I think Denver can slow down, as he only had 5 points at half time of game two.

    The Denver offence is concentrated to pretty much Jokic and Murray. Joker managed to score 30 points in game 2, while only being 9/20 from the field. Jamal Murray scored 25 points on 8/19 from the field, the next closest shot attempts on the team were MPJ who had 9. This is pretty much a do or die game for Denver, so LBJ+Jokic+Murray+MPJ+random Laker bum to me seems like a good build tonight.

  • gaelicgirl

    @JSteele said...

    The key to beating the Lakers, is transition defense. Take good shots on offense and limit their ability to run the floor. Make them play a half court game and the Nuggets have a chance. a physical defensive center isn’t going to hang around with AD on the perimeter, or run the floor while LeBron is quarterbacking passes down court.

    My last point is that you should never count out a team playing in desperation, especially the Nuggets. Remember, they were down 3-1 in both of their other series’. I think the Nuggets win tonight. It will be close, but I think they pull through.

    Well said, JSteele

    Y’all got any more of those 3-1’s?

  • Wooden_Bones

    Am I the only one that doesn’t enjoy playing the showdowns in this series? It just feels like there’s a much smaller player pool that you should realistically choose from compared to the BOS/MIA series.

    With that said, I am still throwing a lineup or two out there.

  • gaelicgirl

    @Wooden_Bones said...

    Am I the only one that doesn’t enjoy playing the showdowns in this series?

    No, I’m also not enjoying the heck out of this series LOL

  • Brendan239

    @jdtrey said...

    I’m a bigger believer in Playoff Rondo than most but he won’t see minutes to even sniff 50 in the next few games. They simply won’t need him this series after that game 1 performance.

    Lakers still win this series in 5 .. and they’re making it seem closer than it really is. That game the other night wasn’t as close as a normal 2 point game is, the Lakers were in full control of that game until they let the Nuggets back in at the end.

    And regarding the defense on Jamal Murray, sure PatBev is annoying and PG CAN be a good defender when he wants to be engaged. The Clips, just like the Jazz, didn’t have the sheer number of plus defenders they could throw in front of him. He’ll get his in a couple of games this series just due to how well he’s shooting and the fact that he’ll keep coming but this is a much tougher matchup for him than most people want to realize or accept. (again not saying he doesn’t have good games this series)

    Vogel won’t take him off the floor if he’s doing well and he’s going to be 10% owned. He’ll be in 1 or 2 of my FD LUs in my 1.2x spot.

  • jdtrey

    He’ll probably be over 30% owned on FD, not close to 10% and the likelihood he actually smashes in this spot is much, much lower than 30%

  • jdtrey

    @gaelicgirl said...

    No, I’m also not enjoying the heck out of this series LOL

    Tends to happen when all you do is hate.

  • Wooden_Bones

    @jdtrey said...

    Tends to happen when all you do is hate.

    I’m thinking there’s a backstory to this comment.

  • monarch

    This is a rough showdown. 58k entries on DK. You could max this thing out….chop and take a pretty decent loss tonight.

  • monarch

    Also could be a slate to take the 1k expected zero. Rather have four or five big dogs than two and four Garry Harris type players.

  • Brendan239

    Is Dozier even worth his price on FD or only a DK play? Will his 14 FD points even matter?

  • gaelicgirl

    @jdtrey said...

    Tends to happen when all you do is hate.

    Um…what?

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