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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

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    2/16
    Team Lebron vs. Team Giannas

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  • superstars92

    I looked at the game logs last few years. The starters play slightly more than the bench, but it’s all normalized to talent level. Like the guys who were more talented played more, and it just happened the more talented guys were the starters and naturally cost more.

    I think if you exclude the cost of the players and normalize for talent, the bench could play more mins. Like a min priced player plays more “relative” mins vs a player 3x his price, if you factor that in.

    So if you choose, I think you may not need a starting lineup per say. Like if you assume SGA will start and is more talented than the other World players, SGA should see decent mins.

  • JSteele

    @superstars92 said...

    I want to build my lineups under certain assumptions, like based on how much playing time guys like Luka, Trae, and Zion get, since that directly affects their backups. Like if you assume Trae gets less playing time, than Ja, Graham, Nunn, and Sexton get more so they are anti-correlated (at least some of them, but I guess they can also share floor).

    If it helps, Joel Embiid a couple years ago only played 8 minutes in the rising stars and played in the All Star Game, so I think it’s safe to assume that Luka and Trae may be limited. Maybe not 8 minutes because that’s including the being big factor, but I could see 14 minutes.

    SGA and Zion also played 37 and 31 minutes last night. Melli played 24. I’m not sure if that will have an effect.

  • superstars92

    @JSteele said...

    If it helps, Joel Embiid a couple years ago only played 8 minutes in the rising stars and played in the All Star Game, so I think it’s safe to assume that Luka and Trae may be limited. Maybe not 8 minutes because that’s including the being big factor, but I could see 14 minutes.

    SGA and Zion also played 37 and 31 minutes last night. Melli played 24. I’m not sure if that will have an effect.

    Simmons played 20 last year and was in the All-Star game. 20 was the fewest for any World Starter.

    Yea I have like a binary thing, where like Trae plays like 18 mins or 25 mins, and depending on the scenario, I choose appropriately. I don’t want to completely leave out Trae or Luka and plus they can have huge usage in few mins (Simmons last year did), but I’m going to stack my teams based on either outcome to increase variance.

    Like playing Trae, Graham, Sexton, and Nunn all in 1 lineup is probably -EV.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    This isn’t that hard to figure out. There’s no secret. Minutes are usually fairly even. Play alphas/ball hoggers/chuckers/3 point shooters. Star power usually shines. I wouldn’t hesitate for a second on DK to put NAW at captain. The main issue is specific to Zion/Trae/Doncic minutes considering their circumstances. The game will be crazy high scoring so I wouldn’t worry about correlations or balance. Everyone will have time to get there’s. Over the last 4 games the combined totals have been 305, 279, 291, and 311 with only one game really significantly leaning to the other team.

    NAW, Nunn, Barrett, Sexton, SGA are all PRIME plays IMO.

  • superstars92

    @Pandamonious said...

    NAW, Nunn, Barrett, Sexton, SGA are all PRIME plays IMO.

    What about your boy Svi, the future of the Pistons.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @superstars92 said...

    What about your boy Svi, the future of the Pistons.

    I don’t think Svi has anywhere near enough Alpha in him. I wouldn’t have zero if I was making several line ups, but I don’t think he’ll chuck enough. Sekou is the future though, not Svi.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    So other than the anomaly that is Ben Simmons the last 2 years, and Sabonis making the winning line up 2 years ago under a different format, basically the winning line ups have featured the players that shot the most 3’s in the game on DK.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    2018 DK winning line up

    UTIL
    Ben Simmons
    PHI 60.22% $10,800 45.5
    UTIL
    Buddy Hield
    SAC 15.04% $8,600 42.75
    UTIL
    Dario Saric
    PHI 38.79% $8,400 30.25
    UTIL
    Jaylen Brown
    BOS 22.09% $7,800 54
    UTIL
    Bogdan Bogdanovic
    SAC 31.29% $7,400 44
    UTIL
    Domantas Sabonis
    IND 36.30% $6,600 33.25
    TOTAL $49,600 249.75

    Hield shot 14 3’s. Bogdanovic shot 13. Saric 7. Brown 8. Those 4 guys shot more 3’s than anyone else.

    Simmons had 13 assists and 4 steals. 6 boards.
    Sabonis had a boring 13 points 11 boards.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    CPT
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
    WORLD 10.26% $6,300 55.13
    UTIL
    Kyle Kuzma
    US 37.66% $9,000 48.5
    UTIL
    Donovan Mitchell
    US 50.65% $8,800 53.75
    UTIL
    Jayson Tatum
    US 33.18% $8,600 52.75
    UTIL
    Ben Simmons
    WORLD 43.94% $8,200 47.25
    UTIL
    Trae Young

    US 47.81% $7,800 54.25
    TOTAL $48,700 311.63

    Tatum shot 14 3’s. Young 11. Kuzma 10. Mitchell 6. SGA 7.

    Doncic shot 9 3’s and Bogdanovic 11, but neither got there.

    3 of the 4 USA players were in the starting line up (Mitchell, Kuzma, Tatum) World it was 1 starter, 1 bench player. SGA came off the bench and was the winning captain.

  • JSteele

    Panda have you noticed any difference between 1st year players and 2nd year players playing for the 2nd time?

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @JSteele said...

    Panda have you noticed any difference between 1st year players and 2nd year players playing for the 2nd time?

    I was going to look into that. I’ll report back. I’m just now, since i started posting began looking into trends and stuff.

  • Ace15

    I think I“m leaning towards fading Luka and Trae. I think because they’re part of the mai event other guys will get more run. They don’t have much to prove IMO, they’ll let others shine this game.

  • Yeoman

    @JSteele said...

    I could see this too. I think targeting guys like Nunn, Sexton, Graham, JJJ on the USA side make a lot of sense and then on the World side, SGA, Melli, NAW, and Svi. I’m not sure that those Washington guys get a ton of run with their recent injuries but I’d have interest in Wagner.

    I like Wagner if he gets some run. He thrives in track-meet games and this seems right up his alley.

  • telestraightshooter

    Congrats to SkateFiend….who is identified in results db as sole winner(397.25) in the 57k entry 0.25 dK contest….on only 2 entries

  • theIrrigator

    • 908

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #29

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @JSteele said...

    If it helps, Joel Embiid a couple years ago only played 8 minutes in the rising stars and played in the All Star Game, so I think it’s safe to assume that Luka and Trae may be limited. Maybe not 8 minutes because that’s including the being big factor, but I could see 14 minutes.

    SGA and Zion also played 37 and 31 minutes last night. Melli played 24. I’m not sure if that will have an effect.

    You have to remember that was when Embiid was on a min restriction the entire season. Didnt he only play like 15 mins in the All-star game also?

  • theIrrigator

    • 908

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    • Ranked #29

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @telestraightshooter said...

    Congrats to SkateFiend….who is identified in results db as sole winner(397.25) in the 57k entry 0.25 dK contest….on only 2 entries

    He could of won everything on DK with that score

  • Ace15

    @JSteele said...

    If it helps, Joel Embiid a couple years ago only played 8 minutes in the rising stars and played in the All Star Game, so I think it’s safe to assume that Luka and Trae may be limited. Maybe not 8 minutes because that’s including the being big factor, but I could see 14 minutes.

    SGA and Zion also played 37 and 31 minutes last night. Melli played 24. I’m not sure if that will have an effect.

    Good info. I think I’ll take a chance and fade the guys who just played last night and fade Luka/Trae. It should narrow down my pool. Might as well take a stand somewhere. This just makes too much sense. Zion/SGA coming off a very competitive game, I’d be shocked if they got a ton of minutes. Really really like starting with NAW/Morant or something.

  • theIrrigator

    • 908

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    • Ranked #29

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    @Ace15 said...

    I think I“m leaning towards fading Luka and Trae. I think because they’re part of the mai event other guys will get more run. They don’t have much to prove IMO, they’ll let others shine this game.

    You will be one of the very few

  • Yeoman

    Chucker ratings.

    Of course it’s not this simple—this is a measure of what they’ve actually done, not what they’d be willing to do if turned loose.

    But FWIW, 3-point attempts / 36 this season:

    Luka 10.0
    Graham 9.6
    Trae 9.6
    NAW 8.4
    JJJ 8.1
    Svi 7.8
    Melli 6.9
    Nunn 6.8
    Bridges 5.3
    Wagner 4.3
    Sexton 4.1
    Barrett 4.0
    Washington 4.0
    Okogie 3.8
    SGA 3.6
    Paschall 2.8
    Ja 2.7
    Hachimura 2.3
    Clarke 1.8
    Zion 1.4

  • JSteele

    @theIrrigator said...

    You have to remember that was when Embiid was on a min restriction the entire season. Didnt he only play like 15 mins in the All-star game also?

    Possible. It also seems like players who played the night before aren’t really limited in any way, so guys like Zion, and SGA should be fine. I think I just need to wait and see who the official starters are, because it seems like there is a bench guy who is in the winning lineup. I could see that being Graham today if Morant, and Trae start since he takes a ton of 3s and seems alpha

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    I’m going back to 2013, see if I see anything and will go back further depending on if it seems useful.

    Bradly Beal:

    Year 1- 22 minutes, 12 points 4 assists, 2 steals, 1 rebound
    Year 2- 28 minutes, 21 points, 4 assists, 2 steals, 5 boards

    Anthony Davis

    Year 1- 20 minutes, 11 points, 1 assist, 1 steal, 9 boards
    Year 2- 28 minutes, 16 points, 4 assists, 3 steals, 8 boards

    Damian Lillard was nearly identical, and maybe actual performed worse the 2nd game statistically.
    Harrison Barnes was a little better the 2nd year, but nothing significan.t

    Dion Waiters

    Year 1- 18 minutes, 23 points, 3 assists, 1 steal
    Year 2- 21 minutes, 31 points, 7 assists, 3 steals, 1 rebound

    OK, doing it his way will take too long.

    2014-15

    Giannis was significantly better in year 2.
    Dipo also.

    Both saw more minutes, which is a likely trend as they are more prominent players in year 2.

    These are the only 2 guys to play in 14 and 15.

    For 15-16

    Payton sucked both years.
    Bojan was actually better the 1st year, off the bench. 2nd year too much star power on the world team maybe playing with the starters.
    Wiggins played 7 extra minutes his 2nd year and scored 7 extra points.
    LaVine went from bench to starter and played roughly the same minutes, but put up a way bigger stat line year 2.

    16-17

    Porzingis put up equal stat lines.
    Lyles didn’t do squat either year.
    Towns played a few more minutes his 2nd year and grabbed a few more points and boards.
    Booker actually scored less in more minutes his 2nd year, but grabbed some extra peripherals.
    D’Lo same as Booker.

    OK. I could keep typing out things, but the trend seems to be the same. Most players do better or equal 2nd year. It does seem like maybe going from off the bench to starter negatively impacts a player. Jamal Murray for example chucked a ton and was huge off the bench his 1st year, then the 2nd year not as much.

  • JSteele

    Thanks Panda, good information.

    I was thinking we would see an opposite effect where 2nd year guys defer to the 1st year guys but i’ll keep that in mind.

  • Ace15

    @Pandamonious said...

    I’m going back to 2013, see if I see anything and will go back further depending on if it seems useful.

    Bradly Beal:

    Year 1- 22 minutes, 12 points 4 assists, 2 steals, 1 rebound
    Year 2- 28 minutes, 21 points, 4 assists, 2 steals, 5 boards

    Anthony Davis

    Year 1- 20 minutes, 11 points, 1 assist, 1 steal, 9 boards
    Year 2- 28 minutes, 16 points, 4 assists, 3 steals, 8 boards

    Damian Lillard was nearly identical, and maybe actual performed worse the 2nd game statistically.
    Harrison Barnes was a little better the 2nd year, but nothing significan.t

    Dion Waiters

    Year 1- 18 minutes, 23 points, 3 assists, 1 steal
    Year 2- 21 minutes, 31 points, 7 assists, 3 steals, 1 rebound

    OK, doing it his way will take too long.

    2014-15

    Giannis was significantly better in year 2.
    Dipo also.

    Both saw more minutes, which is a likely trend as they are more prominent players in year 2.

    These are the only 2 guys to play in 14 and 15.

    For 15-16

    Payton sucked both years.
    Bojan was actually better the 1st year, off the bench. 2nd year too much star power on the world team maybe playing with the starters.
    Wiggins played 7 extra minutes his 2nd year and scored 7 extra points.
    LaVine went from bench to starter and played roughly the same minutes, but put up a way bigger stat line year 2.

    16-17

    Porzingis put up equal stat lines.
    Lyles didn’t do squat either year.
    Towns played a few more minutes his 2nd year and grabbed a few more points and boards.
    Booker actually scored less in more minutes his 2nd year, but grabbed some extra peripherals.
    D’Lo same as Booker.

    OK. I could keep typing out things, but the trend seems to be the same. Most players do better or equal 2nd year. It does seem like maybe going from off the bench to starter negatively impacts a player. Jamal Murray for example chucked a ton and was huge off the bench his 1st year, then the 2nd year not as much.

    Good content. See you at the top!

  • JSteele

    2nd year guys playing this year:

    Trae, Luka, SGA, JJJ, Okogie

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @Yeoman said...

    Paschall 2.8
    Ja 2.7
    Hachimura 2.3
    Clarke 1.8
    Zion 1.4

    This is kind of the dead zone to me. More so Paschall/Rui/Clarke. I think things would have to go significantly lopsided for any of those 3 make a winning line up. Zion really scares me all around in this game. Hard to fade. Morant, I don’t know. He could get a dozen assists here.

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