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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    7:00 PM EST : Toronto ( -4.5 ) at Orlando ( 4.5 ) —- T: 209.5
    8:30 PM EST : Boston ( 3 ) at Indiana ( -3 ) —- T: 204
    9:30 PM EST : Portland ( 7.5 ) at Okla City ( -7.5 ) —- T: 221.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NBA thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • got9forya

    Welp on to tonight

  • P0key

    I think its time to play Westbrook now Down 0-2… Hoping for a 70 burger

  • ASitar

    Perfect day to play Vuc! $7,800. He went 20/10 this year vs Toronto and now at home. 50 burger.

    My punt is Noel, hopefully he can get to 25 DK points. Will be heavy in the late game.

  • superjon

    Anyone use Linestar for their optimizer? I am trying to see if there’s a way to adjust exposures on each player, but can’t find anything.

  • KATburger

    • Blogger of the Month

    I think guy’s like Evans, Matthews and Brown have filet’d a lot of fish the first two games. Can obviously put Collison/Sabonis/Morris in the same train of thought (just game 2 for morris)

    Do you smell that opportunity in the air? Anyone feel like 1/6 or more are going to be in the winning lineup tonight?

    Choosing from Bos/Ind & Orl/Tor has been a nightmare these playoffs, I’ve been burned twice but I can’t pass up a Evans/Matthews/Brown for $12,900. That’s 21.5% of available salary, leaving $7,850 for the remaining 6 players.
    Sneak in another min priced guy or value play and you can really open things up in your lineups with the FD drop score.

  • Njsum1

    @KATburger said...

    I think guy’s like Evans, Matthews and Brown have filet’d a lot of fish the first two games. Can obviously put Collison/Sabonis/Morris in the same train of thought (just game 2 for morris

    Evans has been playing well, he’s just not getting enough minutes. Still I can see using him for 4K as a last player in, for if his strong play continues I’d take 20 to 25 DK points and move on, as the studs are basically free today. Pg13 8700..OK..I’m buyin.

    I’m going to be the sucker that keeps playing collison. I went back to him last game, and as I thought, he saw 33 minutes in a close game without foul trouble. Played well…just didn’t get the peripherals. Now even deeper discount 4600, at home, couple steals, and if his teammates can hit some more shots for him, maybe he’ll finally deliver…or maybe not 🤷‍♂️😭

  • KATburger

    • Blogger of the Month

    @P0key said...

    I think its time to play Westbrook now Down 0-2… Hoping for a 70 burger

    The trend is our friend, my friend. RWB is overpriced here on FD imo. Easy fade. Portland’s defense and the momentum they carried with them heading into the playoffs (vs OKC sliding/dropping/backing into the playoffs) is too tough a challenge. The adjustments that have been made for this series have been working. I think everyone knows OKC’s chances of winning depends on PG13. If you want the 0-2 narrative he’s the play. Feels like a Portland kind of day so my only exposure is to Dame for a late night hammer.

  • KATburger

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Njsum1 said...

    Evans has been playing well, he’s just not getting enough minutes. Still I can see using him for 4K as a last player in, for if his strong play continues I’d take 20 to 25 DK points and move on, as the studs are basically free today. Pg13 8700..OK..I’m buyin.

    I’m going to be the sucker that keeps playing collison. I went back to him last game and as i thought he, saw 33 minutes in a close game without foul trouble. Played well…just didn’t get the peripherals. Now even deeper discount 4600, at home, couple steals and if his teammates can hit some more shots for him, maybe he’ll finally deliver…or maybe not 🤷‍♂️😭

    I wish we knew what adjustments were coming. Tyreke can dominate a game with a pick and roll/two man game if he’s allowed to run the offense. I’m not saying he’s Oladipos twin, but his ability to get into the lane and make plays is good enough for the man to earn 25 minutes in an 0-2 series.

    The two underutilized scorers for IND are Sabonis/Evans. It’s been that way all season long. One of them has to have the restraints released today.

  • NDNole

    Right now I like Paul George. Im thinking He will be underowned. Going 100% 3/3.

  • ASitar

    I have a feeling that one of Horford, Tatum, or Hayward goes off for 45 DK points. I hate using anyone aside from Kyrie from Boston, but those three are capable of a big game and have yet to have one this playoff.

    On a side note, it’s been amazing how vanilla the winning LU has been on DK each night.

  • Njsum1

    @NDNole said...

    Right now I like Paul George. Im thinking He will be underowned. Going 100% 3/3.

    On DK, I wouldn’t be surprised if PG13 is the highest owned player on the slate…he won’t be underowned

  • superjon

    Keeping it simple tonight. The only stud I’m fading 100% is Kyrie

    Playing 105 line ups.

    25 w/RWB
    25 w/PG13
    20 w/Dame

    and the final 35 line ups will just be random

  • samuri8

    I reserve the right to come back and amend this, but I like starting lines with PG and Russ tonight.

  • KATburger

    • Blogger of the Month

    @superjon said...

    Keeping it simple tonight. The only stud I’m fading 100% is Kyrie

    Playing 105 line ups.

    25 w/RWB
    25 w/PG13
    20 w/Dame

    and the final 35 line ups will just be random

    With a little bit of random kyrie thrown in for safety? Maybe just 3? So a 97.1% fade of kyrie.

    The way you feel about Kyrie is probably how I feel about RWB but i’m also just going with a single train bullet 3:1 cash/gpp $‘s.
    If I was 100-max entry I’d use RWB in a few just to go into the night comfortable.

  • superjon

    @KATburger said...

    With a little bit of random kyrie thrown in for safety? Maybe just 3? So a 97.1% fade of kyrie.

    The way you feel about Kyrie is probably how I feel about RWB but i’m also just going with a single train bullet 3:1 cash/gpp $‘s.
    If I was 100-max entry I’d use RWB in a few just to go into the night comfortable.

    The difference is RWB price went down and Kyrie’s went up.

    Also, doesn’t Boston suck on the road? I know Kyrie’s splits aren’t terrible. I just think the guys around him have better games, be it DAme, RWB or Lowry

  • superjon

    that said, i may end up with 3 to 5 with Kyrie

  • NDNole

    @Njsum1 said...

    On DK, I wouldn’t be surprised if PG13 is the highest owned player on the slate…he won’t be underowned

    Westbrook, dillard and kyrie will take ownership from him is what I am banking on. If not then westbrook will be way underowned. One of westbrook and George will be low owned for sure in my opinion.

  • Njsum1

    @NDNole said...

    Westbrook, dillard and kyrie will take ownership from him is what I am banking on. If not then westbrook will be way underowned. One of westbrook and George will be low owned for sure in my opinion.

    I don’t think so, PG13 is the stud with the highest Point Per Dollar Projection on the slate. No way he’s low owned on DK. On FD, maybe he’s low owned, as he’s more expensive over there.

  • Njsum1

    @superjon said...

    The difference is RWB price went down and Kyrie’s went up.

    This is flawed logic. I’m not arguing for or against Kyrie as I’m a bit undecided. And I also think Westbrook might play well tonight. Just In general (in DFS and life), it’s flawed thinking.

    The price of any asset could rise, and still be grossly underpriced. Conversely, the price of any asset can fall, and still be vastly overpriced.

    I try to value the asset for what it is, regardless of the previous price.

  • NDNole

    @Njsum1 said...

    I don’t think so, PG13 is the stud with the highest Point Per Dollar Projection on the slate. No way he’s low owned on DK. On FD, maybe he’s low owned, as he’s more expensive over there.

    OK, we will see. But you make a good point. So im going 2/3 on PG on the lineup I don’t really like anyway juuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuust in case you are right.

  • KATburger

    • Blogger of the Month

    @superjon said...

    The difference is RWB price went down and Kyrie’s went up.

    Also, doesn’t Boston suck on the road? I know Kyrie’s splits aren’t terrible. I just think the guys around him have better games, be it DAme, RWB or Lowry

    Ahhh ok. on FD Irving’s $9,700 and RWB $11,800. Not as high of a ceiling as russ but I’m banking on horford/brown having a great game with kyrie lifting those assist levels up a bit. I just see him matching RWB’s fpt production on FD.

    I did struggle not going with Lowry. but Tor can win handily without an offensive presence from him. I think he goes back to being passive this game and through this series. The trend is our friend. He’s been trending downwards in his career, trending downwards and volatile since the middle of march when he got injured.

    Lately i’ve just been treating dfs like the financial markets even more so than before. The trends our friend until a new trend begins. A one day spike doesn’t mean its lift off time :)

  • KATburger

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Njsum1 said...

    This is flawed logic. I’m not arguing for or against Kyrie as I’m a bit undecided. And I also think Westbrook might play well tonight. Just In general (in DFS and life), it’s flawed thinking.

    The price of any asset could rise, and still be grossly underpriced. Conversely, the price of any asset can fall, and still be vastly overpriced.

    I try to value the asset for what it is, regardless of the previous price.

    Well said sir. This is the type of thinking that ‘sharps’ are using… I think people would be surprised if they knew how many everyday ‘investors’ ‘traders’ ‘day traders’ ‘swing traders’ take that knowledge and apply it to a ‘profitable hobby’ like DFS.

    This is why I said yesterday that draymond green at $8,800 on FD is worth the price. He’s been banking 4.5x value at that price and 4.5x has been enough to get into a GPP cash line.

    Nice job man.

  • Njsum1

    @NDNole said...

    OK, we will see. But you make a good point. So im going 2/3 on PG on the lineup I don’t really like anyway juuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuust in case you are right.

    Just so you know..I like PG13 tonight, just saying he won’t be low owned.

  • KATburger

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Njsum1 said...

    Just so you know..I like PG13 tonight, just saying he won’t be low owned.

    Vegas Odds watchers will definitely boost PG13’s ownership. Leonard > PG13 recency bias mixed with the price will take a little away ( FD ) but we all know RWB hasn’t been ‘the’ guy this year. Bets on OKC = similar action on PG13.

    I’m not trying to overwhelm the thread today. Going to take a mental break, first day in a while I haven’t been engulfed in afternoon baseball.

    Goodluck to everyone tonight!!!

  • ushook

    Horford still too cheap on yahoo.

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