8:00 PM EST : Milwaukee ( -12 ) at Detroit ( 12 ) —- T: 219.5
10:30 PM EST : Houston ( -2.5 ) at Utah ( 2.5 ) —- T: 214
Couple of things to keep in mind with Favors and Crowder. If you think Favors is going to get a lot of blocks and putbacks he’s in play, but at 5.7K he either needs to play more than 20 minutes (his current average this series) or have an incredibly efficient game. It’s an uphill battle, and short of a major scheme change I just don’t see the upside unless Gobert gets into foul trouble.
With Crowder you get 21mpg at 4K, but he’s also shooting 4-21 this series. You can interpret that two ways. This is undeniably a bad matchup for him (and the rest of the Jazz), plus he’s already a streaky shooter who likes to take a lot of ill-advised threes. By that logic, his shooting woes will likely continue, capping his value. On the other hand, he’s a 33% 3PT shooter on the season and 20% this series, so it only takes a couple extra makes to bump him into the 25-30 FPS range.
Utah’s problem is that they don’t have a single plus matchup. Letting Mitchell chuck has essentially been their entire strategy thus far as they’re constantly chasing Harden’s scoring. Jingles has been abysmal (vaguely tempting at 5.3K though) and Rubio was basically run off the floor last game. Mitchell’s the only one who can create his own shot. I wouldn’t be surprised if they started Favors with Gobert and tried to just pound the paint and get Capela into foul trouble, but even that has a low probability of success and give Harden too much room on the perimeter.
Aside from Harden, Capela and Tucker (35 minutes at 4.5K is hard to pass up), I’m not sure I want to touch anyone from this game. It’s possible the refs take over again and force a million FTAs for Mitchell, but I’d rather bet against it. Gobert would be a decent play at 7.5K, but his shot attempts are trending way down (10 game 1, 6 game 2, 4 game 3) and he’s barely scraping his way to a double-double. He had 22/12/1/1 Game 1 and still barely hit 40 FPS. Couldn’t even crack 40 with 7(!) blocks last game. I think stacking DET is an infinitely better contrarian play tonight, but maybe I just have PTSD from watching the abomination that was game 3.
If you think it is going to be a blowout you should play George Hill, Connaughton, and Mirotic.
except I am still waiting for that Embiid- like performance from ABC where in 25 minutes he puts up something like a 10/7/30 line w/ a couple steals and 3 blocks. On FD I like Brown over Connaughton at 3900 vs. 5200—but not by much. Viewing Brolo last game as a bit of an outlier and not going there.
fwiw: connaughtons most mins came in blowouts and also when Griffin was out and pistons played more small ball. not to mention mirotic is cutting into the rotation much more working back from injury along with more irsan to defend blake.i think hill is the play over pat c as they had hill running the two spot with the starters and hes more aggressive
fwiw: connaughtons most mins came in blowouts and also when Griffin was out and pistons played more small ball. not to mention mirotic is cutting into the rotation much more working back from injury. i think hill is the play over pat c as they had hill running the two spot with the starters and hes more aggressive
unfortunately Hill is a PG on FD and I prefer Ish for $700 cheaper
Sox, normally, I wouldn’t play them together, either, but the math adds up.
Tonight, I’m rolling with the correlation play.
2 game slate. Gotta be different. GPP.
I think there are times when playing them together works, but usually Harden sucks the oxygen from the relatively high-priced CP3 (high priced bec of Harden hoggin FPs). I do see the case tonight if Harden gets early fouls, or the Bucks blowout DET and Bledsoe only gets 20-22 minutes, but I am counting on 28-30 from him. Rubio is off my radar after sitting almost the entire fourth and his poor defense—but I get some will use him as a pivot on a short slate in a must-win game at home.
Here’s my take on MIL:
Bledsoe is 6.8K and averaging just under 28 MPG. That alone is disturbing. He’s never played more than 30 in this series even when it stayed reasonably close. He’s also shooting 52% for the series, so I wouldn’t bank on any bump to his scoring numbers, and his peripherals just aren’t strong enough to make up the gap. He had a huge game 2 but that required him to drop 27/4/6 with 3 steals and a block on 58% shooting. Very low probability of anything over 5x.
Middleton’s numbers are more rounded. Minutes are there, shooting well, and less dependent on steals than Bledsoe. A good mid-range play, especially on a two-game slate. Ceiling is limited with this roster and context, but should be good for at least 5x barring a blowout.
BroLo basically comes down to shooting and blocks. Had 5 blocks game 3 and 4 game 1. What happens if he’s not swatting? 19 FPS (game 2). I think he’s a fine play tonight, but mostly due to a lack of better options at C. There are just too many offensive options to make him more than a dice roll here.
In terms of value, Pat C was deceiving in games 1 and 2 because he shot an absurd 67% and 80%, respectively. 28 MPG at 4.2K is hard to pass up, but the only game he smashed required 18/9/3 with 4 blocks, and this is a guy who averaged 7/4/2 with 0.4 blocks in the regular season. Game 2 was a major outlier not worth chasing. On the other hand, Mirotic is slowly ramping up in minutes and returning to form. Shot 25% game 1, 20% game 2, and 60% game 3. He’s better than Ilyasova in virtually every metric, and the Bucks have repeatedly talked about him getting shots up during this series. 3.7K is nuts for a guy with 50+ upside. I’ll be way over the field on him tonight.
Couldn’t even crack 40 with 7(!) blocks last game.
He was a better play on FD where blocks and steals count for 3, ended up at 41.1 FD points. I don’t know, still kind of like him tonight…the Jazz don’t have the offensive firepower to compete if Harden and the gang are hitting their shots, seems like their only prayer is smothering defense. Rockets likely complete the sweep tonight, but don’t see the Jazz going down without a fight.
I think trying to use any sort of value metrics on a 2 game playoff slate is a little weird, but your ideas are generally correct in how you’re assessing them. The one thing we really agree on is Mirotic— I have 100 percent over both sites. Gotta make some sort of stand on odd slates like this one :)
As for Giannis, I expect a bounce-back game tonight, but he simply doesn’t need to takeover the way Harden does. I think MIL is looking to round 2 and beyond and will try to limit Giannis and Bledsoe’s minutes as much as possible. He can still do major damage in 25-30, but the odds of him needing to are lower on a points-per-dollar basis than probably any other stud tonight (Harden, Blake, Mitchell, etc.). I’ll have a little but will be under the field.