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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 5/16
    9:00 PM EST : Portland ( 7.5 ) at Golden State ( -7.5 ) —- T: 218.5

    Friday, 5/17
    8:30 PM EST : Toronto ( 6.5 ) at Milwaukee ( -6.5 ) —- T: 215.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NBA thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • ASitar

    @tmarohl said...

    Brook Lopez and Serge Ibaka

    Oh jeez, lots of ties tonight. I like my current single bullet tonight but I think it’s going to be popular

  • keephustlincuz

    @newzreview said...

    Brook Lopez

    What are the chances Splash Mountain can repeat that performance?

  • ASitar

    @keephustlincuz said...

    What are the chances Splash Mountain can repeat that performance?

    I don’t think he’ll repeat it but he’ll see 35 minutes and will exploit them again for 35+ DK points. Lowry on the other hand…..

  • hobbes2d

    • 757

      RG Overall Ranking

    @damionismyname said...

    its a luck box game for the most part. showdown is all about luck because so many things have to bounce your way to win. Its hard to cash on a 2 game slate let alone a 1 gamer. I’ve only been playing small and a handful of entries and glad I’m not putting more into this atm. Very hard game type to profit.

    It’s not luck. You legitimately have to figure out who will get the most raw points. Showdown has to do with matchups because it’s literally just a single game. So while you all were looking at Kanter (Can’t Play Kanter) or Iggy, people who didn’t roster them were jumping the field.

    I had lineups that cashed last night where I got a 0 from Jake Layman, who I thought might benefit from the Blazers going small but instead it was Meyers Leonard. You need to try to attempt to figure out what the teams are going to do with their rotations.

  • Agent47

    @keephustlincuz said...

    What are the chances Splash Mountain can repeat that performance?

    I doubt he’ll repeat it but he doesn’t need to at that cheap price on DK. He actually went down $200 in salary. He could score 20-25 fpts less than in Game 1 and still crush value.

  • ASitar

    @hobbes2d said...

    It’s not luck. You legitimately have to figure out who will get the most raw points. Showdown has to do with matchups because it’s literally just a single game. So while you all were looking at Kanter (Can’t Play Kanter) or Iggy, people who didn’t roster them were jumping the field.

    I had lineups that cashed last night where I got a 0 from Jake Layman, who I thought might benefit from the Blazers going small but instead it was Meyers Leonard. You need to try to attempt to figure out what the teams are going to do with their rotations.

    I agree, plan your LU around your projected gamescript. The luck (on your end or others) is usually because of foul trouble or a players shot falling who doesn’t usually get involved, both of which are usually unforeseen. You live by your decision and die by your decision. I had a single bullet last night that I felt good about, but had Kanter (who ended up w only 19 minutes) and Hood (who only put up 12 points and you rely on him taking shots). I think you also have to be able to take a gamble on a player like Laymen or Bell who at 5% ownership and less than $2k gets minutes (for some lucky reason) and puts up 20 points. Maybe that’s FVV tonight.

  • hobbes2d

    • 757

      RG Overall Ranking

    @ASitar said...

    I agree, plan your LU around your projected gamescript. The luck (on your end or others) is usually because of foul trouble or a players shot falling who doesn’t usually get involved, both of which are usually unforeseen. You live by your decision and die by your decision. I had a single bullet last night that I felt good about, but had Kanter (who ended up w only 19 minutes) and Hood (who only put up 12 points and you rely on him taking shots). I think you also have to be able to take a gamble on a player like Laymen or Bell who at 5% ownership and less than $2k gets minutes (for some lucky reason) and puts up 20 points. Maybe that’s FVV tonight.

    Especially with the playoffs where the starters are playing nearly the entire game. To have any chance of winning you need to find that lower owned guy. Like I had some Powell in Game 1 and he played well but it’s hard to see him getting enough minutes to make a huge difference.

  • tmarohl

    @keephustlincuz said...

    What are the chances Splash Mountain can repeat that performance?

    I don’t think he will repeat that performance, but there were several games this year where he hit four or more three pointers. It was the rebounds, blocks, and put backs which made him have a huge total. He is still under priced for the matchup, especially if they have Gasol on the floor as much as he was. I think the Raptors counter and reduce Gasol’s playing time. That will put Ibaka on the floor more, and probably take some of Lopez’s minutes away.

  • gaelicgirl

    @NoLimits0 said...

    As I’ve been saying for the last 2 years, if you think Andre Iguodala is a “not an elite” basketball player because he costs like 4k normally in the regular season, then you don’t know basketball.

    Andre is definitely an elite player, and he knows his worth. When he hit free agency in the summer of 2017, the Warriors offered him $42 million over 3 years with only a partial guarantee for the third year. He met with the Spurs and Kings in LA on a Friday night and received multi-year offers from both. Saturday morning he received a multi-year offer from the Rockets and cancelled all further meetings (it was reported that the Sixers and Lakers wanted him, too).
    He agreed to a final meeting with the Warriors to say goodbye, and Bob Myers flew down to join Steve Kerr in LA. They upped their offer to $45 million for 3 years guaranteed, but Andre wanted $16 million per year. Myers got on the phone with Joe Lacob and got approval for their final offer – $48 million guaranteed for 3 years. When asked later if the Warriors were overpaying Andre, Kerr replied, “Are we overpaying statistically? Probably. Are we overpaying in terms of his value on winning a championship? Hell, no. Can you imagine us without him? No. He’s been worth every penny and more.”

    And this is why it drove me crazy to hear Rockets fans say they were only a Chris Paul hamstring away from going to the finals last year, and why Warriors fans countered that the WCF would have been over in 5 if Andre hadn’t gotten injured. Hopefully that debate is now settled forever (and I apologize for this lengthy defense of Andre but it needed to be said LOL).

    I should add that I’m not playing BroLo on the Fri-Sat slate, as I like the fight the Blazers showed last night. They almost had that game, and I think they’re going to play even harder when the series moves to POR for Games 3 and 4.

  • telestraightshooter

    @ASitar said...

    I think you also have to be able to take a gamble on a player like Laymen or Bell who at 5% ownership and less than $2k gets minutes (for some lucky reason) and puts up 20 points

    imho Bell was not a gamble, alot of sharks were using him in 50/50.
    Bell has good matchUp metrics vs blazers – 47 dK Fpts per 36
    Bell in the rotation for 10 – 14 mins
    My projection was 12.5 at $1.2k, but I was not suprised by the 21 pts

  • sox9

    @telestraightshooter said...

    imho Bell was not a gamble, alot of sharks were using him in 50/50.
    Bell has good matchUp metrics vs blazers – 47 dK Fpts per 36
    Bell in the rotation for 10 – 14 mins
    My projection was 12.5 at $1.2k, but I was not suprised by the 21 pts

    went w/Curry, Klay and Looney on the 2-day slate—-set up looks decent for tonight. I’ll take 31.4 from Looney

  • telestraightshooter

    @sox9 said...

    went w/Curry, Klay and Looney on the 2-day slate—-set up looks decent for tonight. I’ll take 31.4 from Looney

    That LU is ~25-30% of the entries in my 2 day 50/50’s
    Looney exceeded proj by 167%

  • ASitar

    Lowry/Lopez or Siakam/Miro. The second one is prob much less chalky and I think that Siakam is due for a dbl dbl and Miro should continue to see 22 minutes, even w Brogdon back. Tonight’s the kinda of night that Lowry puts up 31 DK points and Lopez 25 and after last game everyone will be playing them. Might be shooting myself in the foot but it’s prob the right combo w 80 point upside.

  • hobbes2d

    • 757

      RG Overall Ranking

    @ASitar said...

    Lowry/Lopez or Siakam/Miro. The second one is prob much less chalky and I think that Siakam is due for a dbl dbl and Miro should continue to see 22 minutes, even w Brogdon back. Tonight’s the kinda of night that Lowry puts up 31 DK points and Lopez 25 and after last game everyone will be playing them. Might be shooting myself in the foot but it’s prob the right combo w 80 point upside.

    I love Siakam in this matchup. He took 20 FGA last game and made just 6. I would expect him to have a better night tonight. Toronto was getting a lot of open looks in Game 1. Mirotic could conceivably get a double double too. You would have to think Toronto will try to adjust to prevent Lopez from going ham like that. I also wouldn’t expect Lopez to lead the Bucks in FGA in Game 2 so it would take a lot for him to replicate his previous game.

    I like your thinking. Also I think Brogdon could see even more minutes even if he’s off the bench. He was like +18 or something.

  • tmarohl

    @hobbes2d said...

    I love Siakam in this matchup. He took 20 FGA last game and made just 6. I would expect him to have a better night tonight. Toronto was getting a lot of open looks in Game 1. Mirotic could conceivably get a double double too. You would have to think Toronto will try to adjust to prevent Lopez from going ham like that. I also wouldn’t expect Lopez to lead the Bucks in FGA in Game 2 so it would take a lot for him to replicate his previous game.

    I like your thinking. Also I think Brogdon could see even more minutes even if he’s off the bench. He was like +18 or something.

    Like I said before, I think Gasol’s minutes will be reduced, which will pull Lopez off the floor, and his minutes would probably go to Brogdon. Gasol’s minutes to Ibaka.

  • tmarohl

    Probably just the homer in me again, but I think the Bucks blow the Raptors out tonight. I don’t think the Bucks will shoot as bad as they did, and I would expect a more aggressive Giannis. I don’t feel like Lowry will replicate that game again. I’m looking for big nights out of Giannis and Bledsoe.

  • samuri8

    Bledsoe has shut down Lowry historically before that game…I would have to think he is taking that personally and we know how well he can defend. It’s hard for me to love Lowry tonight. I faded MIddleton in game 1 because he is busy guarding Kawhi, and I will be underweight on him again.

  • tmarohl

    Last game Toronto played a 2-3 zone most of the night. That was designed to have four guys collapsing on Giannis as he tried to go to the rim. For the most part, Giannis did not try to force much and kicked out to the open shooters for threes, who proceeded to miss most of them through the first three quarters. The game kind of turned around when Bledsoe started driving to the hoop and had a few layups, along with Brook hitting a few threes. I expect there to be emphasis tonight on Bledsoe trying to break through some of the seems in that 2-3 zone and kick behind him to a trailing Giannis, or to three guys stationed along the perimeter for threes. Either way, the Bucks will follow their mantra of “Let it Fly”.

  • yisman

    it’s been a bad playoffs for DFS https://sports.yahoo.com/dailyfantasy/contest/4815347/89880298

  • telestraightshooter

    @tmarohl said...

    I’m looking for big nights out of Giannis and Bledsoe.

    I wish eB had a big game coming, but he’s kept under 30 min last 12 games
    & he’s only good for 35 per36 in this matchup

  • ScofieldReturns

    @gaelicgirl said...

    Andre is definitely an elite player, and he knows his worth. When he hit free agency in the summer of 2017, the Warriors offered him $42 million over 3 years with only a partial guarantee for the third year. He met with the Spurs and Kings in LA on a Friday night and received multi-year offers from both. Saturday morning he received a multi-year offer from the Rockets and cancelled all further meetings (it was reported that the Sixers and Lakers wanted him, too).
    He agreed to a final meeting with the Warriors to say goodbye, and Bob Myers flew down to join Steve Kerr in LA. They upped their offer to $45 million for 3 years guaranteed, but Andre wanted $16 million per year. Myers got on the phone with Joe Lacob and got approval for their final offer – $48 million guaranteed for 3 years. When asked later if the Warriors were overpaying Andre, Kerr replied, “Are we overpaying statistically? Probably. Are we overpaying in terms of his value on winning a championship? Hell, no. Can you imagine us without him? No. He’s been worth every penny and more.”

    And this is why it drove me crazy to hear Rockets fans say they were only a Chris Paul hamstring away from going to the finals last year, and why Warriors fans countered that the WCF would have been over in 5 if Andre hadn’t gotten injured. Hopefully that debate is now settled forever (and I apologize for this lengthy defense of Andre but it needed to be said LOL).

    I should add that I’m not playing BroLo on the Fri-Sat slate, as I like the fight the Blazers showed last night. They almost had that game, and I think they’re going to play even harder when the series moves to POR for Games 3 and 4.

    you left out the best part of the story. iggy told them he got an over the top (50-60 mil) offer from the kings and was going to take it. kerr got sad and started to say thank you for all the good times and then iggy burst into laughter and said “nah im joking, i’ll be sticking around”

  • damionismyname

    @hobbes2d said...

    It’s not luck. You legitimately have to figure out who will get the most raw points. Showdown has to do with matchups because it’s literally just a single game. So while you all were looking at Kanter (Can’t Play Kanter) or Iggy, people who didn’t roster them were jumping the field.

    I had lineups that cashed last night where I got a 0 from Jake Layman, who I thought might benefit from the Blazers going small but instead it was Meyers Leonard. You need to try to attempt to figure out what the teams are going to do with their rotations.

    sorry but there’s a lot of luck, injury, foul trouble, bad shooting night. happens all the time and those are things you cannot judge. there are many nights when the ideal matchup fails.

  • gaelicgirl

    @ScofieldReturns said...

    you left out the best part of the story.

    Haha I did! Thanks for (best Paul Harvey voice)… the rest of the story LOL

  • hobbes2d

    • 757

      RG Overall Ranking

    @damionismyname said...

    sorry but there’s a lot of luck, injury, foul trouble, bad shooting night. happens all the time and those are things you cannot judge. there are many nights when the ideal matchup fails.

    lol. Making educated guesses it not luck. Foul trouble/injuries/bad shooting is more variance than anything. A lot of times what people think is an “ideal matchup” for basketball they happen to be wrong.

  • gaelicgirl

    @damionismyname said...

    sorry but there’s a lot of luck, injury, foul trouble, bad shooting night. happens all the time and those are things you cannot judge. there are many nights when the ideal matchup fails.

    Like correctly predicting Kanter would get less run in Game 2 and pivoting to Collins, but having no way of knowing Collins would pick up 5 fouls in 8 minutes. Even for him, that was kind of crazy.

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