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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    5/21
    8:30 PM EST : Boston ( 15 ) at Cleveland ( -15 ) —- T: 213.5

    5/22
    9:00 PM EST : Golden St ( 0 ) at San Antonio ( 0 ) —- T: —

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NBA thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • tmarohl

    @superstars92 said...

    Huh? Clearly LeBron and Steph are better plays. If you don’t believe me, take a look at the 333 dollar tourney (where it’s only sharks), and you’ll find that both LeBron and Steph have way higher ownership for both the Friday/Saturday slate, the Saturday/Sunday slate, and the upcoming Sunday/Monday slate…

    There’s no way to justify Durant is a better play than LeBron, Love and Steph (per price) on DK. He’s only a good play in tournaments because he might be a bit contrarian, but I am not sure after last game since more people will be on him. He was a good play for the Saturday/Sunday slate.

    It’s like saying Love is the best play. There’s no arguing that. Everyone of the sharks knows that. That’s why he’ll be nearly 100% owned in cash games.

    Love and KD have the same ceiling on DK, with Love costing 2.5k less. Love has played in 2 blowouts, and still managed to reach 6x in both.

    I disagree with you completely. Durant is by far a better play than Lebron on both sites. Lebron is probably the best raw point producer, but from a value standpoint Durant is a better play in my opinion. If you are choosing one or the other, I would go Durant. Problem with this slate is most of the value is also at small forward.

  • Watchyahead

    Smart or Simmons?

  • thebigboy

    @Watchyahead said...

    Smart or Simmons?

    Yes

  • superstars92

    @gaelicgirl said...

    I would argue that Love is definitely not the best play. Can’t look at the $333 tourney because I don’t play on DK, but even if I could look at it, I wouldn’t use ownership % among the sharks to determine who is the better play between Love and KD. I would use FD points made as my guide.
    Let’s just look at each player’s last 6 games as an example.
    Against Toronto, Love scored 35.3, 16.9, 30.8, 15.2. Against Boston, he’s scored 48.4, 39.4.
    Against Utah, KD scored 51.7, 57.1, 32.7. Against San Antonio, he’s scored 53, 22.9, 50.
    If you subscribe to the notion that raw points matter most on two game slates, regardless of price or ownership, I don’t see how you can possibly argue that Love is a better play than KD. Love scored fewer than 20 points 2 out of 6 times, and fewer than 40 points 5 out of 6 times. KD scored fewer than 40 points 2 out of 6 times, and 50 points or more 4 out of 6 times. Clearly, Love is not the better play.

    Huh? Why did you use Love’s FP vs. Toronto? He’s not even playing Toronto this series. I mean if you are going to do that, why don’t I just take KD’s 10 lowest scores of the season against any random teams and compare that to Love’s 10 highest points of the season against any random team (of course you can’t do that because that argument makes no sense, just like using Love’s performance vs. Toronto makes no sense to evaluate how he will do against Boston). Also, you are looking at raw points. Of course, KD will have higher raw points…he’s like 2.5k+ more. If someone is 2.5k+ more and can’t get more raw points than someone else, then he probably shouldn’t be 2.5k+ more.

    If you are going to use raw points, then I can tell you your ranking is literally going to be like 1. LBJ, 2. KD, 3. Steph, etc. like literally the order of the prices, with a few exceptions.

    I am not trying to use ownership percentages to justify who the better play is. I am just saying the ownership percentages clearly shows everyone agrees with me Love is the best play. I mean take a look at Love’s scores JUST vs. Boston this year. His FP is nearly the same as KD’s vs. Spurs this year, despite being 2.5k less.

    You are using raw points for your argument. JustDFSin is using like the multipler (5x) for his argument, so I am not sure what I am supposed to be using here because everyone is using multiple arguments that actually counteract each other.

  • got_bailey

    @Watchyahead said...

    Smart or Simmons?

    I like Smart. He’s starting tonight with no IT so there will be a lot more shots to go around. I think Simmons may be a bit safer, but Smart has a higher ceiling.

  • superstars92

    @tmarohl said...

    I disagree with you completely. Durant is by far a better play than Lebron on both sites. Lebron is probably the best raw point producer, but from a value standpoint Durant is a better play in my opinion. If you are choosing one or the other, I would go Durant. Problem with this slate is most of the value is also at small forward.

    Yea see this makes no sense when I try to put this with everyone else’s argument (not saying what you said makes no sense, but I am saying if I combined what you said with what others have said). You are talking about value standpoint (you said Lebron is the best raw score performer). gaelicgirl is talking about using raw points to justify KD. So in this case, I guess I have no argument because I would lose either way.

    Like if I say Love is better than KD, you can just say, KD scores more raw points.

    If I say Lebron is better than KD, you can just say, KD has more value (multiplier).

    So I guess KD must be the best play from what I am understanding here. Even though I thought it was clear Love is the best play from a value standpoint and close to KD even on a raw points standpoint. I agree KD and LeBron from a value standpoint is debatable and KD might even be better, but the thing is, I have enough low priced guys to pair with LeBron that I don’t worry about that.

  • lotusbomb

    double post

  • lotusbomb

    draymond hasn’t had to do much this series, and he got in foul trouble early in the game yesterday because attacking down low and slowing the game down is the only way SA has a chance to hang around. I’ve had him in a lot of lineups, but I think I’ll be underweight on him this time around. I doubt he has a ceiling game on the closeout game of the series.

    I probably like bradley more than most, putting smart into the starting lineup takes away a lot of scoring ability. it’s sink or swim and I’ve made some lineups assuming the celtics can at least keep it close enough that the starters from both teams play into the fourth quarter.

    kyle anderson, rozier, jaylen brown, ginobbli(possible last game, pop may play him more then he has been), and bertans are the punts I’m on. so plenty of options to do stars/scrubs lineups.

  • ASalvaro

    I keep thinking there’s a chance they start Murray tommorow

  • gaelicgirl

    @superstars92 said...

    Huh? Why did you use Love’s FP vs. Toronto? He’s not even playing Toronto this series.

    Just wanted to use recent playoff performances for comparison, so it would be comparing apples to apples. Taking KD’s lowest scores of the season against random teams and comparing them to Love’s highest scores of the season would be comparing apples to oranges. I realize Love isn’t playing against Toronto this series, but two games seemed like too small a sample size for comparison purposes.
    Anyway, not trying to start an argument with you. But I couldn’t let your assertion that KD is BY FAR the worst of the star players go unchallenged.
    Good luck to you.

  • tmarohl

    @superstars92 said...

    Yea see this makes no sense when I try to put this with everyone else’s argument (not saying what you said makes no sense, but I am saying if I combined what you said with what others have said). You are talking about value standpoint (you said Lebron is the best raw score performer). gaelicgirl is talking about using raw points to justify KD. So in this case, I guess I have no argument because I would lose either way.

    Like if I say Love is better than KD, you can just say, KD scores more raw points.

    If I say Lebron is better than KD, you can just say, KD has more value (multiplier).

    So I guess KD must be the best play from what I am understanding here. Even though I thought it was clear Love is the best play from a value standpoint and close to KD even on a raw points standpoint. I agree KD and LeBron from a value standpoint is debatable and KD might even be better, but the thing is, I have enough low priced guys to pair with LeBron that I don’t worry about that.

    I certainly will have my fair share of Lebron, but it would not surprise me in the least if he is not in the winning lineup. I think it will depend on how competitive tonight’s game actually is. If this is another blowout I think he puts up less FD points than last game. Not sure what to think about game 4 in SA. Has SA completely quit now? If so, Durant and Curry could be less than ideal plays as well. My basic point is that if you think Durant is going to score 45-50, and Lebron is going to get you 55-60, that Durant is a slightly better play than Lebron. I try to play them both where possible.

  • colb24

    Celtics cover spread Vegas wins Lebron scores 41 real pts cavs have slow first quarter but then go nuts from there… Rozier goes off which gives Danny Ainge crazy thoughts to trade IT for more picks because he loves picks and I cash in on all cash games and we all end Sunday night happy

  • raymond333

    @superstars92 said...

    Aside from Love, there’s no one safer than LeBron. Look at all the other high price players. Many of them haven’t reached even 4x in multiple games this series.

    Irving hasn’t gotten 35 FP at all, Aldridge hasn’t gotten 30 FP since game 1, Durant had a good game yesterday, but got 25 FP the day before, Draymond has 2/3 games he hasn’t gotten 5x, and when he has, he barely got it, Steph has been good, but didn’t get 5x yesterday, Klay has gotten 5x ONCE this playoffs, Bradley hasn’t gotten 5x this series, Simmons didn’t even get 5x yesterday despite having a good position to do so, Mills hasn’t gotten 5x all series, Crowder has gotten 5x once this series, IT3 is out, Kawhi is questionable.

    Love is the safest across the board (and will be ridiculously owned), but LBJ is the next. You can hope those other guys go for 40-50, but so far, they aren’t showing it. Meanwhile, LBJ only now needs maybe 50-55 FP to be good because 5x doesn’t mean the same anymore these playoffs.

    Excellent post. And yea, the whole 5x’s value and having too much left over in salary doesn’t mean as much now. For example, back last week when they said Leonard was out, I had to slide to Crowder or someone (can’t remember), and it made no sense to change any other of the 2nd team coming in, and I had 4K left, and still hit (small) in my tournament.

    And yea, hardly any of these guys are getting anywhere near where they should. That’s why I’m agree, Lebron and (now) Love are probably your safest bets. I’d say them…maybe Curry and Durant…then the rest are 2 tier and bench or punts. I won 2 out of my 3 lines from the fri/sat slate, and a lot of that was due to players like ginobli, J Brown, Simmons, etc.

    Even Aldridge, what’s his deal. You would think he’d be balling with no Leonard…he even knows it himself that he’s been off. Maybe his matchup isn’t good, Idk.

  • cappilary

    Anyone on the Deron Williams train? Sitting right there between Murray and Rozier on FD.

  • superjon

    @tmarohl said...

    I certainly will have my fair share of Lebron, but it would not surprise me in the least if he is not in the winning lineup. I think it will depend on how competitive tonight’s game actually is. If this is another blowout I think he puts up less FD points than last game. Not sure what to think about game 4 in SA. Has SA completely quit now? If so, Durant and Curry could be less than ideal plays as well. My basic point is that if you think Durant is going to score 45-50, and Lebron is going to get you 55-60, that Durant is a slightly better play than Lebron. I try to play them both where possible.

    Since the playoffs have started, Lebron has been in the winning LU on FD 7 out of 10 times.

    1 of the 3 times was because the Cle/Ind game on 4/23 wasn’t on the slate. So really, 7 for 9.

    I know he’s expensive, but with so much value out there, I think it’s foolish to have anything less than 80% of Lebron

  • raymond333

    @IronMonkey415 said...

    I left $3000 on the table in one FD lineup.

    This doesn’t seem right.

    Like I just posted, I left 4K, but it was because the 1st already played and it didn’t make any sense…and I still hit. I know it feels weird leaving more than a couple hundred, but the way it is now, you almost have to if you wanna win lol

  • raymond333

    @DC2380 said...

    am i crazy for leaving 700 dollars on a the table

    Not at all at this point.

  • DonkeyDFS

    Amir starting…… All in!

  • Deltfish

    @colb24 said...

    Celtics cover spread Vegas wins Lebron scores 41 real pts cavs have slow first quarter but then go nuts from there… Rozier goes off which gives Danny Ainge crazy thoughts to trade IT for more picks because he loves picks and I cash in on all cash games and we all end Sunday night happy

    This

  • got_bailey

    I’m not sure why, but I’m not really too hype about Rozier tonight. I think Murray is a much safer play

  • MrPerfekt7

    Any love for Horford tonight, will this be the game he goes off?
    Thinking bout running a few Celtics Horford/Brown/Smart. 2 Warriors and 2 Cavs. Thoughts?

  • P0key

    @cappilary said...

    Anyone on the Deron Williams train? Sitting right there between Murray and Rozier on FD.

    decision of the night…i went with Rozier for the minutes he “should” get

  • MrPerfekt7

    @got_bailey said...

    I’m not sure why, but I’m not really too hype about Rozier tonight. I think Murray is a much safer play

    I looked at his logs and I was like πŸ‘€πŸ€¦πŸ½β€β™‚οΈ

  • got_bailey

    @7klub06 said...

    Any love for Horford tonight, will this be the game he goes off?
    Thinking bout running a few Celtics Horford/Brown/Smart. 2 Warriors and 2 Cavs. Thoughts?

    I’ve been having a hard time deciding between Horford and TT. I honestly think they both have the same ceiling, but TT has a lower floor, which I’m not too worried about because I think last game was a fluke. So I’m probably straying away from Horford so I can upgrade in other spots.

  • MrPerfekt7

    @got_bailey said...

    I’ve been having a hard time deciding between Horford and TT. I honestly think they both have the same ceiling, but TT has a lower floor, which I’m not too worried about because I think last game was a fluke. So I’m probably straying away from Horford so I can upgrade in other spots.

    That was my only concern was game 2 for TT

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