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  • Pandamonious

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    Milwaukee ( 2.5 ) at Toronto ( -2.5 ) — T: 212.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – MLB strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays MLB thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • BerkeleyBoss

    @tmarohl said...

    I used to play MLB every day. Now maybe once every two weeks or so. Prize pools are not that attractive, and baseball is just so damn random.

    I’ve been making some lineups, but I don’t follow baseball at all anymore. I just use the lineupHQ to pick a pitcher and 2 stacks. Can’t be ideal lol

  • Njsum1

    @miggs6876 said...

    I really don’t get all the Toronto love. Defensive is very good but they still won’t be able to stop the warrior machine consistently. One game it could be Steph, Green, Klay, or pick a role player. Their ball movement is second to none. The Bucks and 76ers inexperience showed. The home court advantage isn’t a great concern. Toronto will need more than kawhi to beat them. They know how to defend iso ball. See the rockets series. The other starters aren’t consistent enough to beat the elite warrior team. Warriors in 5 maybe 6.

    Kawhi is just better than everyone else right now. He also doesn’t get rattled in big moments. Yet it’s not just Kawhi…Lowry playing well and plays well versus GS, Siakam, Gasol and Green on defense..van fleet finally hitting shots, Powell playing well. Ibaka plays well versus GS.

    Not just eye test, yet the reasons I think I’m very high on Toronto is this..
    1) home court….this is the first time GS doesn’t have home court
    2) I had a lot of respect for the Bucks. People were saying the bucks would beat GS even with KD. And I’m not sure I disagreed. Toronto proved to be better than Milwaukee.
    3) Kawhi Leonard
    4) Kawhi Leonard

  • tmarohl

    If FVV plays like Steph and Klay, like he did the last three games, Toronto has a chance. With that said, this will be a completely different series. Toronto really only had to slow one guy down to beat Milwaukee, and they devoted almost all of their resources to that with their build a wall mentality. With Golden State, they for all practical purposes have to shut four guys down. Kawhi is their only good individual defender. I’m guessing he will probably be on Klay. Siakim not quick enough to defend Draymond. Lowry can’t cover Steph. From a Toronto perspective, this seems like the kind of series where Gasol could be a huge factor, because GS really doesn’t have anyone to counter him.

  • keephustlincuz

    @tmarohl said...

    If FVV plays like Steph and Klay, like he did the last three games, Toronto has a chance. With that said, this will be a completely different series. Toronto really only had to slow one guy down to beat Milwaukee, and they devoted almost all of their resources to that with their build a wall mentality. With Golden State, they for all practical purposes have to shut four guys down. Kawhi is their only good individual defender. I’m guessing he will probably be on Klay. Siakim not quick enough to defend Draymond. Lowry can’t cover Steph. From a Toronto perspective, this seems like the kind of series where Gasol could be a huge factor, because GS really doesn’t have anyone to counter him.

    Regarding your gasol comment. I think the first game will be a bit of a chess match with lineups. Kerr may run the small ball lineup to keep gasol off the floor. If toronto can counter that and keep it close playing klaw at the 4 and siakam at the 5 you might see toronto try to play like that. otherwise gasol might not play much.

  • Njsum1

    Last thought….Toronto blew out GS in GS WITHOUT KAWHI, and the warriors at full strength. 🤷‍♂️

  • gaelicgirl

    @Njsum1 said...

    1) home court….this is the first time GS doesn’t have home court

    But what GS does have is at least one road win in 22 consecutive playoff series, an NBA record.

  • jcotdl

    @Njsum1 said...

    Last thought….Toronto blew out GS in GS WITHOUT KAWHI, and the warriors at full strength. 🤷‍♂️

    pretty sure that was december..

  • mtdurham

    I put $300 to win $825 on Toronto to win the series at +275.

    Ill be betting Toronto vs the spread for $100 each game as well.

    If Toronto loses game 1 theyll shoot up to +550 or so. At which point ill just throw another ~$300 on them.

    If they get down 2-1 in the series that would also be another nice opportunity to bet on Toronto as the public will fool themselves into thinking golden state “cant” lose.

    I honestly think true odds for this series should prob be around Toronto -160… maybe even -180.

    If i hadnt just dropped like $6k this week on moving expenses and rent/deposit on my new place id be looking to bet pretty heavily here to be honest.

    Any of the four teams who had a chance to come out of the East could have put up a good fight against this weakened Warriors squad. But Toronto by far was the team that had the best chance to beat them.

    Masai saw how the Kawhi/Danny Green combo trap off the PNR has given Steph more trouble than anyone else in the league.

    Just look at a few examples like the year the Warriors won 72 games and San Antonio rolled out that strategy and gave GSW their worst offensive game of the season.

    Look at two years ago on opening night when San Antonio DRUBBED the warriors by THIRTY points.

    Look at 2 years ago in the WCF when the spurs were blowing the warriors out before pachulia intentionally cheap shotted kawhi and ended his season.

    Gasol (unlike most centers) can stay on the floor for stretches against the warriors without being a massive defensive liability . And the warriors dont have any size to matchup with him.

    Toronto also has the ability to go small for LONG stretches with ibaka/siakim frontcourt or even kawhi/ibaka or kawhi/siakim… theyve got two rugged guards between Lowry and FVV who will both be absolutely huge in this series.

    They can move kawhi from anywhere to SG, SF, PF, or center with unconventional lineups where he can overwhelm the warriors.

    The warriors are still versatile but Iguodala and Draymond have both really aged and neither are the same player they used to be. And klay has become a weak link.

    Curry is gonna face a ton of defensive attention and i expect him to struggle relative to his baseline normal performance.

    Everything from a basketball matchup standpoint favors the raptors. And without durant im not even sure the warriors are even the more talented team to begin with.

    Toronto after going through two good teams in Philly and milwaukee might be a little more worn down than the warriors who had a cakewalk to the finals this year in the weakest western conference we’ve seen in two decades

  • miggs6876

    @mtdurham said...

    I put $300 to win $825 on Toronto to win the series at +275.

    Ill be betting Toronto vs the spread for $100 each game as well.

    If Toronto loses game 1 theyll shoot up to +550 or so. At which point ill just throw another ~$300 on them.

    If they get down 2-1 in the series that would also be another nice opportunity to bet on Toronto as the public will fool themselves into thinking golden state “cant” lose.

    I honestly think true odds for this series should prob be around Toronto -160… maybe even -180.

    If i hadnt just dropped like $6k this week on moving expenses and rent/deposit on my new place id be looking to bet pretty heavily here to be honest.

    Any of the four teams who had a chance to come out of the East could have put up a good fight against this weakened Warriors squad. But Toronto by far was the team that had the best chance to beat them.

    Masai saw how the Kawhi/Danny Green combo trap off the PNR has given Steph more trouble than anyone else in the league.

    Just look at a few examples like the year the Warriors won 72 games and San Antonio rolled out that strategy and gave GSW their worst offensive game of the season.

    Look at two years ago on opening night when San Antonio DRUBBED the warriors by THIRTY points.

    Look at 2 years ago in the WCF when the spurs were blowing the warriors out before pachulia intentionally cheap shotted kawhi and ended his season.

    Gasol (unlike most centers) can stay on the floor for stretches against the warriors without being a massive defensive liability . And the warriors dont have any size to matchup with him.

    Toronto also has the ability to go small for LONG stretches with ibaka/siakim frontcourt or even kawhi/ibaka or kawhi/siakim… theyve got two rugged guards between Lowry and FVV who will both be absolutely huge in this series.

    They can move kawhi from anywhere to SG, SF, PF, or center with unconventional lineups where he can overwhelm the warriors.

    The warriors are still versatile but Iguodala and Draymond have both really aged and neither are the same player they used to be. And klay has become a weak link.

    Curry is gonna face a ton of defensive attention and i expect him to struggle relative to his baseline normal performance.

    Everything from a basketball matchup standpoint favors the raptors. And without durant im not even sure the warriors are even the more talented team to begin with.

    Toronto after going through two good teams in Philly and milwaukee might be a little more worn down than the warriors who had a cakewalk to the finals this year in the weakest western conference we’ve seen in two decades

    Good analysis. I just don’t see it quite that way. Draymond has been playing better than ever. Iggy can still play great defense. I wouldn’t downplay Curry or Klay’s ability to take over games. Experience vastly goes to the warriors and the coaching staff. I am not sold on Toronto’s offense. They can go on long stretches without scoring, especially if Kawhi is off. Offensively, I dont feel comfortable trusting Lowry, Skiakm, Green, Gasol, Powell, or FVV. Lastly, the warriors ball movement is superior and Toronto can’t exclusively try to stop one guy (ABC). I’ve been beating the warrior drum and that will continue. I’m not buying all the Toronto hype. Reminds me of all the logic that was used regarding the Patriots….

  • Njsum1

    @jcotdl said...

    pretty sure that was december..

    So??? What, GS didn’t try that game??? Not saying it’s playoff intensity but they lost by 20 without Kawhi. TWENTY with no Kawhi, that means something to me. In GS nonetheless.

    I never bet sports, yet I agree with @mtdurham, the line just seems wrong. Seems like a line where the public is just betting the warriors and the oddsmakers want action on Toronto.

    Don’t know if I agree that the line should be -160 Toronto, I just don’t think it should be +250. Again, I’m not a fan of either team, in fact not really a fan of any team, just a dfs player and fan of the league. Im writing what I feel to be truth. I very well could be wrong, as I don’t wager directly on sports (yet 😉) other than dfs, yet Toronto seems like a solid all around team that is deserving of more respect.

  • Njsum1

    @miggs6876 said...

    Reminds me of all the logic that was used regarding the Patriots

    Patriots should have lost to KC, game was over, they got bailed out by a meaningless defensive offside call away from the play, then the chiefs offense never got a shot in overtime.

    No one who knows football thought the hapless Rams were going to beat the Patriots. Goff showed he’s not good under pressure. And I don’t know what was going on with Gurley.

    Situation was different, people were expecting good offense to best solid defense/game planning. This is the opposite situation, people are expecting solid offense to best solid defense…rarely happens that way. Warriors are a solid defense as well just not as good as Toronto.

    Again I’m not saying that the warriors shouldnt be slight favorites, it’s the -250 I take issue with.

  • yisman

    got this. Interesting.

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  • jcotdl

    @Njsum1 said...

    So??? What, GS didn’t try that game??? Not saying it’s playoff intensity but they lost by 20 without Kawhi. TWENTY with no Kawhi, that means something to me. In GS nonetheless.

    You answered your own question. It was not playoff intensity (and no kawhi), so what conclusions would you draw? I would say that that game means nothing to me going forward- and both teams look very different than they did in December. Strangely enough, I believe the Raptors look much MUCH better now but I believe GSW could say the same regarding recent playoff form. So I would say again that the game in December doesn’t really tell me all that much about the Drakes, and certainly not that they should be favored over the E-40s

  • jcotdl

    sorry njsum1, didnt mean to imply that you favored raps over warriors- was just trying to convey that the December game didnt mean much to me. And for you (thought you might have been chasing waterfalls)

  • gaelicgirl

    @miggs6876 said...

    Good analysis.


    LOL Your rebuttal was much better analysis!

  • mtdurham

    With regards to my comment that the Raptors should be -160 (maybe even -180)… I’ve had time to think about that more…. I think Raps -135 is my final answer as to fair value…. the warriors have a massive experience edge as b-holes tighten up on 3 point shots in the Finals…

    Regardless, +250 is a silly line and anyone betting warriors at almost -300 is nuts IMO

  • Njsum1

    @jcotdl said...

    sorry njsum1, didnt mean to imply that you favored raps over warriors- was just trying to convey that the December game didnt mean much to me. And for you (thought you might have been chasing waterfalls)

    Lmao…all good…listen…..

    Haha..any post with a “the other guys” reference deserves a 👍

  • billythekidcowboysheat

    Has been a warrior killer when on the floor. Expecting danny green to have a better series, raps are gonna need siakam, fvv, powell,ibaka to step up, cause i see lowry and gasol being limited immdietly. Warriors def would have preferred the bucks imo, still expect a warriors 3peat, in 6 or 7.

  • gaelicgirl

    “There are so many unknowns that won’t begin to make themselves clear until Thursday that almost anything could be possible right at this moment.”
    https://deadspin.com/what-can-the-raptors-possibly-do-to-make-people-believe-1835035854

  • smokeyca14

  • ScofieldReturns

    i bet on the raps to make the finals but i’m going with the warriors here…glad the spread is so close this early, makes it easier to bet on it

  • NoLimits0

    @durham.

    Yea I agree with you Raptors shouldn’t be the big of an underdog (but still should be underdogs), but totally disagree on Iggy and Draymond.

    You just think they have aged and aren’t good cause of KD and Cousins. But look what happens when you are out and get more responsibility. Draymond is playing better than ever and Iggy is still an elite defender who can guard Kawhi better than anyone any other team had.

  • yisman

    Warriors just listed Boogie as questionable for Game 1.

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