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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    7:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( -2.5 ) at Toronto ( 2.5 ) —- T: 214
    9:30 PM EST : San Antonio ( 4.5 ) at Houston ( -4.5 ) —- T: 214.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NBA thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • Gopackgo30

    @elementasrat said...

    Which side gets blown out?

    Personally, I think most people are wrong. Pop finally realized that the key to stopping Harden is putting Kawhi on him EARLY.

    I think Spurs win the next 3.

    I think the Spurs are old — and I think not having Parker, who had been very good in these playoffs, is going to really hurt them. First game without Parker and Houston will probably shoot well at home…do you really see the Spurs blowing them out? I strongly feel either a close Houston win, or a Houston blowout.

  • tmarohl

    @Gopackgo30 said...

    I just don’t think its that simple. Kawhi is going to run point more, be asked to score more/carry more of the offensive load, and stop Harden at home, where he plays better. Kawhi can’t do everything, and if the Spurs are going to stay in this game, he’s going to have to carry a HUGE load on offense. Also, Harden is a good player, its not as simple as Kawhi just shutting him down. Harden had about 25 fpts in the 3rd quarter alone on Wednesday and would’ve had 55-60 if that game had been close in the 4th. I personally think Kawhi could have a down game. He’s typically not quite as solid on the road.

    He also sat for an extended stretch in the second quarter. Much more than his normal three or four minutes.

  • mike42

    It will be impossible for Simmons to be a sleeper, a half dozen people have mentioned him by noon which means he’s going to be 20-30% owned, at least. Not much else under 3k on DK anymore, he will be popular out of necessity for everybody playing team jam them in.

  • winnerchickendinner

    Raptors upset with lebron spining the ball and taunting them with beer. Calls for physical game 3.

  • frugal

    @tmarohl said...

    Yes, taking the raw points is critical. On this slate you have three guys who should get you raw points. I just see two of the three as better values. If you believe at all in the accuracy of rotogrinders projections, you will see that LBJ is projected for 53.21. Kawhi at 52.32 and Harden at 52.65. If you can build a lineup with all three that you are comfortable with go for it. If forced to choose 2 of 3 I would lean to Kawhi and Harden. I could also go with Kawhi and LBJ and take a discount hoping that DDR has a comeback game and gets me 40.

    While I’m sure RG’s model was built by some very smart people…

    In the 5 matchups LBJ faced TOR this season he exceeded 58.5 in 4 of 5. The bad performance was the 2nd game of the season where he returned only 40 DKFP. His average DKFP vs them is is 56.6. When we also consider LBJ’s avg for the playoffs is 67.38, even if we throw out the crazy OT game vs IN, he has an average of 62.5, RG’s projection is too low here IMHO unless they are predicting a huge blowout where his minutes are limited.

  • P0key

    i honestly think the Spurs will lose and Kawhi will only finish with about 42-45..I also think the rockets will put in a team effort and Harden doesn’t have to do much..so he also finishes with around 42-45…LBJ is expensive on FD but I think between all the studs he will be the only one approaching 60…all of this is my gut feeling which will all change as i read this thread and start putting my LU together….by the time everything locks I will only have LBJ in one LU

  • KindGuy

    Win or lose, Capela will be a BUST

  • Gopackgo30

    @frugal said...

    While I’m sure RG’s model was built by some very smart people…

    In the 5 matchups LBJ faced TOR this season he exceeded 58.5 in 4 of 5. The bad performance was the 2nd game of the season where he returned only 40 DKFP. His average DKFP vs them is is 56.6. When we also consider LBJ’s avg for the playoffs is 67.38, even if we throw out the crazy OT game vs IN, he has an average of 62.5, RG’s projection is too low here IMHO unless they are predicting a huge blowout where his minutes are limited.

    ^^^This. I never trust the RG default projections. Just based off past results/playoffs…I would put Lebron at 60-65 tonight. Keep in mind too that Lebron has scored 58 and 63 in the first two games, playing 3 QUARTERS per game. Imagine if he plays the 4th in a tight game. Toronto doesn’t seem to have an answer for him. I think Toronto will play better tonight and the game will be closer…that could mean more burn for Lebron.

  • mike42

    Raptors upset with lebron spining the ball and taunting them with beer. Calls for physical game 3.

    Not to mention he was stayed in a 30 pt game for a while after Tor’s starters where long gone. Clev has been laughing at them for 2 games and not even trying to hold back. The question is who on TOR steps up? I think Tucker/Ibaka, still processing DDR/Lowry, got no take on them.

  • raymond333

    yea, any toronto players are a crap shoot tonite. I’m gonna play 2 lines….one with Toronto players (DeRozen, Ibaka etc), in the event they blow up tonite. Then another line with more Houston and Cleveland, and maybe some of Cleveland’s bench. Oh yes, and the sleeper Simmons lol. I had him written down to play the other night when watching the game for tonite. I think he’s one of the best bets as a low priced player.

  • FidelCashflow

    Stacking Lbj, Kyrie and Love on DK. I’ll fill in the other spots as balanced as possible with what’s left.

    Done with TOR. Esp DD. They’ll just double team him on most possessions like they been doing.

  • colb24

    Really wanted Kyrie, Harden , James on DK but the rest isnt working out …

  • tmarohl

    @frugal said...

    While I’m sure RG’s model was built by some very smart people…

    In the 5 matchups LBJ faced TOR this season he exceeded 58.5 in 4 of 5. The bad performance was the 2nd game of the season where he returned only 40 DKFP. His average DKFP vs them is is 56.6. When we also consider LBJ’s avg for the playoffs is 67.38, even if we throw out the crazy OT game vs IN, he has an average of 62.5, RG’s projection is too low here IMHO unless they are predicting a huge blowout where his minutes are limited.

    I was referring to FD points and not DK. At 12.8 I am going to need about 60 to feel comfortable playing him.

  • DC2380

    @tmarohl said...

    Those are FD points and not DK

    How accurate are there models for DK??? I am going to assume the paid subscription models are more detailed.

  • deerosa

    @franckyfranck said...

    Looks like there is no love for Dewayne Dedmon :)

    this is a direct quote from Greg Poppovich…

  • tmarohl

    @DC2380 said...

    How accurate are there models for DK??? I am going to assume the paid subscription models are more detailed.

    The DK model has Harden at 57.03, Lebron at 56.03 and Kawhi at 55.08

  • DirkDigglerz

    All the Pau GAsol! Beverley and Clint Capela at Home though

  • hangtime28

    Only have LBJ from the early game so I guess that means double OT and 50+ burgers from Lowry and DDR.

  • Yahchanan

    I keep trying to give rotogrinders credit for a number 3 finish on DraftKings yesterday but they won’t post my comment. Bradley Bill did not come through is that going to be Harden today?

  • billholler

    So I changed my mind just in case DFS doesn’t exist in Texas this time next week. Fading Lebron. All in on Love and Kyrie with the Spurs value guys. If Lebron only scores 45 FP, I’m ahead of 60% of the field. If Love scores 50 FP, I’m ahead of 85% of the field. So, I donated again.

  • frugal

    @tmarohl said...

    I was referring to FD points and not DK. At 12.8 I am going to need about 60 to feel comfortable playing him.

    Doesn’t matter the site, they have LBJ underperforming his playoff and matchup average and I just don’t see that happening. You don’t need any specific numbers on a 2 game slate, only the best plays. Someone the other day told me LMA wouldn’t be in a winning lineup unless he scored 40 and he was in the winning DK QA lineup with less than 30 as the other PFs also underperformed.

  • Pandamonious

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    • 2019 Blogger of the Month

    @billholler said...

    So I changed my mind just in case DFS doesn’t exist in Texas this time next week. Fading Lebron. All in on Love and Kyrie with the Spurs value guys. If Lebron only scores 45 FP, I’m ahead of 60% of the field. If Love scores 50 FP, I’m ahead of 85% of the field. So, I donated again.

    Thanks. I’ll admit it’s fairly gutsy to go all in on a guy whose minutes and usage went down in the playoffs last year and have again this year and if it wasn’t for a 4 minute stretch of eating Stephenson alive in game 2 would be a complete dud so far this year. I guess he could be due to get some rub from Bron.

  • colb24

    Bev should be SG eligible on DK …. this is tough

  • Stuffinglover

    @billholler said...

    So I changed my mind just in case DFS doesn’t exist in Texas this time next week. Fading Lebron. All in on Love and Kyrie with the Spurs value guys. If Lebron only scores 45 FP, I’m ahead of 60% of the field. If Love scores 50 FP, I’m ahead of 85% of the field. So, I donated again.

    Lot of unlikely ifs.

  • billholler

    @Pandamonious said...

    I guess he could be due to get some rub from Bron.

    If you fade Lebron, you have to go heavy on Kyrie or Love or both. Right?

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