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  • bhdevault

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    7:30 PM EST : Philadelphia ( -3.5 ) at Atlanta ( 3.5 ) —- T: 225
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  • Brendan239

    Tonight feels like a 10-way chop for first. There’s only like 3 SFs, 3 PFs, 3 C’s on FD

  • theIrrigator

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    @Brendan239 said...

    Everyone else heavy Jackson/Shake on FD?

    No I’m getting more Jackson/Clarkson

  • theIrrigator

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    @Brendan239 said...

    Tonight feels like a 10-way chop for first. There’s only like 3 SFs, 3 PFs, 3 C’s on FD

    I hope to be one of the ten

  • BiGtIGeRs

    Who said they don’t see the bucks winning 4 straight

  • RipCityRings

    Center Batum killed the Jazz in the first half of G3, I’m curious to see how Snyder adjusts here. Gobert can’t stretch to the perimeter and was getting scorched from three. Then Favors got wrecked inside, just too old and slow and was getting hunted repeatedly. Not sure the Jazz have an answer, Niang has been a useless TO machine and they have no one else with the length or lateral speed to play effective small ball, though they had a nice run in the third when Royce was crashing the boards and hitting threes. They probably just need to rotate quicker and send help on shooters so Gobert doesn’t get pulled out of the paint, because their defensive numbers with him off are abysmal.

    Given that Batum probably earned a little more defensive attention, I think this is the game that Morris needs to show up. He was 0-5 from deep again in G3, the only weak spot in an otherwise great shooting night for the Clips other than 0-5 Beverley (who managed to not hit a single FG despite playing all of garbage time, ouch). It’s funny that everyone thought Bev was exposed in the Mavs series because he was too small to guard Doncic, yet this series has made it clear that his offensive game is essentially non-existent at this point. I know I’ve been hyping Mann a lot, but despite his reluctance to shoot he’s an infinitely better defender than Bev and Lue would be crazy not to give him 20+ again.

    We saw a lot of point PG13 in G3 which was really effective. Reggie is better at SG because he as able to consistently find space and has the quickest release on the team. Vaguely Klay-esque last game, though admittedly without the lockdown D. In DFS terms I’m a little wary of Reggie despite his real-life value in this series. He shot 75% from the field and 83% from deep in G3 on only 8 attempts- part of that was Kawhi going lights-out in the second half, but obviously Snyder saw how Reggie torched them in G2 and adjusted. I doubt Kawhi repeats that performance, but Reggie’s FGAs dropping by over 50% from G2 to 3 makes his DFS ceiling a little shaky.

    I like Morris, Mann and PG13 again (in roughly that order) tonight. Morris can pay off that 4.3K in a heartbeat if his shot is falling, as we saw in G7 vs the Mavs. Still a rough matchup but I think tonight is a good spot to roll the dice on a bounce-back performance. Mann definitely earned his minutes last game, he just needs to be less timid offensively. You could see PG13 trying to get him going early but he kept deferring back, something I’m sure Lue gave him an earful about after. He’s too valuable defensively not to get involved on the other end, and virtually every shot he missed barely rimmed out in G3. On the other side, Mitchell is just expensive enough that I think there’s an argument to be made for the fade here. It’s a toss-up between him and Trae, though I think PG13 is a must at 8.6K given his role in this series.

    Edit: I got that Pat Bev shooting line mixed up, that was G2. He miraculously did not attempt a 3 in G3, but 5 of his 7 points were in garbage time so not much of a factor either way.

  • theIrrigator

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    I think Embiid over Klaw

  • theIrrigator

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    No Mann for me

  • tmarohl

    @RipCityRings said...

    I like Morris, Mann and PG13 again (in roughly that order) tonight.

    Excellent analysis. My only question is why did Morris’s minutes go from 37 – 22?

  • billythekidcowboysheat

    @RipCityRings said...

    I like Morris, Mann and PG13

    Will be chopping 1st tonight then, I’m on the exact same build on dk😃

  • RipCityRings

    @theIrrigator said...

    I think Embiid over Klaw

    On FD definitely, Kawhi’s rebounding last game feels like an outlier. That being said, I’ll probably still fade Embiid because I don’t think this 3-game 60 burger streak is sustainable and I want to be there when he finally fails at 11.2K. Maybe an irrational move but it won’t take much for him to under-perform. FD’s pricing is atrocious across the board though, so it’s definitely a pick-your-poison situation.

  • tmarohl

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/14/nba-star-james-harden-takes-stake-board-seat-in-luxury-retailer-saks.html

  • Brendan239

    Capelas going to get in early foul trouble and Okungwu will put up 26 FD points and the winning LU will have Simmons/Mitchell/Bog Bog/Kawhi

  • monarch

    @Brendan239 said...

    Capelas going to get in early foul trouble and Okungwu will put up 26 FD points and the winning LU will have Simmons/Mitchell/Bog Bog/Kawhi

    I am actually all over Okongwu in SD. He is 1k, is in the rotation and plays in blowouts. Foul trouble would be a bonus.

  • RipCityRings

    @tmarohl said...

    Excellent analysis. My only question is why did Morris’s minutes go from 37 – 22?

    I think Morris is a headcase who sort of needs to be provoked into playing hard, but the minutes drop was a combination of his terrible shooting and center Batum being so effective. Nonetheless, I don’t think Batum repeats here, and I would imagine the Jazz try to play as much zone as possible to keep Royce out of foul trouble so they can try to keep Kawhi contained down the stretch. Feels like Morris is sort of in that Jae Crowder spot tonight where he needs to step up defensively and maybe grab more than two rebounds, try to have an impact beyond bricking corner threes. I think going smaller with center Morris was Lue’s original idea in this series, the Batum thing caught the Jazz off guard but I would imagine that regresses here, and they’d rather get Morris going than give any more run to Zubac.

  • yisman

    DK boost today is PG13 under points and Jazz win

    They titled it “Playoff P” but I think they meant “Pandemic P”

  • bazerko

    It looks like he lost minutes to Mann.

  • RipCityRings

    @bazerko said...

    It looks like he lost minutes to Mann.

    Yeah definitely in the second half. Batum also went from 21 to 27 to 35 minutes. I wouldn’t be surprised if Bev got single-digit minutes or even a DNP-CD here in favor of Mann, which might open things up for Morris in the event that he shows up.

  • billythekidcowboysheat

    Trae vs 🕷 straight up is tough.

  • theIrrigator

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    Mitchell over Trae for me

  • theIrrigator

    • 684

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    I’m just eating the Furkan chalk

  • BiGtIGeRs

    @tmarohl said...

    Excellent analysis. My only question is why did Morris’s minutes go from 37 – 22?

    So much for the nets sweeping the bucks lol

  • tmarohl

    @BiGtIGeRs said...

    So much for the nets sweeping the bucks lol

    Yeah, it is weird, Nets are still favored to win the championship in Vegas, but they are now underdogs in the current series.

  • tmarohl

    NBA Communications
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    The 2020-21 NBA All-Defensive First Team:

    Basketball Giannis Antetokounmpo
    Basketball Rudy Gobert
    Basketball Draymond Green
    Basketball Jrue Holiday
    Basketball Ben Simmons

  • ninogarzone

    I am a feeling we see a decent game from atl Bogdan this game. They are blitzing Trae a ton not to mention Danny Green was playing defense on him majority of the series. Icing on the cake he should play close to 40 mins.

  • RipCityRings

    It’s hard to decide how much of an impact no Danny Green will have here since he’s been abysmal offensively in the series (1-9 from deep in Games 1&2). His assist numbers were great in G2 because Ben stopped playing point and would just dump it off as soon as he crossed half court, then stand around the rest of every possession. You would think Ben’s numbers would go back up with Danny out in G3, but Embiid was the true beneficiary there doing his best Jokic impression. You could see that he was getting frustrated there and was grilling Simmons about being more aggressive offensively to take advantage of his gravity. Embiid’s FGAs dropped from 25 in G2 to 14 in G3 but he still got to the line 8 times.

    It’s possible that Embiid’s knee situation is overblown, but I don’t think Doc wants to run him into the ground here. The Sixers desperately need Simmons to be aggressive off-ball, but I think this is ultimately going to be another Tobias game. Like Ben, Thybulle is most useful offensively in transition, but these guys are going to need to figure out how to keep the ball in motion in half-court sets (if not now, certainly for the tougher series ahead). I think Korkmaz gets the green light here, but the second unit minutes will come down to who can effectively distribute. Shake, Hill and Maxey managed a whopping 5 total assists combined over 55 minutes which is not exactly ideal. I still think Shake is the best true PG of that group and at least as good in terms of shooting, and Doc needs someone to step up if they’re not going to overextend Embiid the way Denver did with Jokic in the last couple games. I would think they’d exercise caution with his minutes and usage especially after seeing the position Brooklyn is in right now.

    On the other side, I doubt the Hawks will shoot 26% from deep again. They averaged 27 assists between Games 1&2, then plummeted to 15 in G3. The craziest stat from G2 was the Hawks scoring 28 points from only 9 Philly turnovers, while the Sixers only managed 7 points from Atlanta’s 18. Seems like an anomaly for a Sixers team that’s usually great in transition. Embiid had 4 and 5 TOs in Games 1&2 but only 1 in G3- I would anticipate a return to the mean there, especially with his increased play-making duties. I don’t have a lot of faith in Collins or Gallinari generally speaking, but I think McMillan will throw as much size at Embiid as possible here and try to get him out of rhythm. We also saw a lot more off-ball action offensively for Capela in G3, though he biffed several alley-oops. I think they’ll go back to that here to open up a little more space for Trae, who also needs to get to the line more if they’re going to have a shot.

    I like Shake, Korkmaz (DK only) and Tobias, though Toby is arguably the most overpriced Sixer other than Ben. Simmons is the wildcard- This could be a sneaky smash spot if he can stay aggressive and facilitate better in half-court sets, but that’s a very big “if.” Thybulle is also hard to avoid at his price point on either site. As for the Hawks, Trae, Capela and Collins need to have big offensive games for them to keep up, but I also like Huerter as a bounce-back here as he looked great in the first two games and is infinitely more versatile/less of a liability than Lou Will.

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