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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    8:30 PM EST : Milwaukee ( 1 ) at Atlanta ( -1 ) —- T: 216

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s NBA thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • tmarohl

    Just got my 25K crowns for showdown ironman.

  • ifthethunder

    @tmarohl said...

    Just got my 25K crowns for showdown ironman.

    I didn’t try for that. But I just got 5,000 for 2-sport: Total days playing $1+ in NBA and MLB entries from 5/22/21 – 7/22/21.
    ~

  • tmarohl

    @ifthethunder said...

    I didn’t try for that. But I just got 5,000 for 2-sport: Total days playing $1+ in NBA and MLB entries from 5/22/21 – 7/22/21.
    ~

    I’m like one day away from getting that too.

  • theIrrigator

    • 904

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #29

      RG Tiered Ranking

    No Four Point Play today? Did it already fill or am I blind? I see a $1, $6, $8, $20 but no $4

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @theIrrigator said...

    No Four Point Play today? Did it already fill or am I blind? I see a $1, $6, $8, $20 but no $4

    There’s a $3 sharpshooter if you haven’t found it yet. Actually bigger than the $4 has been I think.

  • theIrrigator

    • 904

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #29

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @Pandamonious said...

    There’s a $3 sharpshooter if you haven’t found it yet. Actually bigger than the $4 has been I think.

    Never thought to look at a lower price point…

  • NDNole

    Line kind of suggests trey is playing tonight right?

  • Njsum1

    @NDNole said...

    Line kind of suggests trey is playing tonight right?

    Idk…maybe 🤷‍♂️

    Atlanta gave Milwaukee the business without Trae and with Giannis at home. Could just be that both teams play significantly better at home

  • siddom

    portis or brolo at cap’n?

  • monarch

    My guess is Trae does not play. I think his foot is pretty jacked up. If they can somehow get past the Bucks he may be ready for the Finals. They cant beat the Suns without a healthy Trae Young anyways.

  • FitFantasyGod

    What’s up showdown degenerates, I wrote an article on how research has diminishing returns if anyone is interested. I suppose it can be applied to showdown. Check it out on the homepage or click on my name to find it if you have 5 mins to kill

  • Njsum1

    @siddom said...

    portis or brolo at cap’n?

    If Trae sits, my optimal has Lou

  • NDNole

    @FitFantasyGod said...

    What’s up showdown degenerates, I wrote an article on how research has diminishing returns if anyone is interested. I suppose it can be applied to showdown. Check it out on the homepage or click on my name to find it if you have 5 mins to kill

    Decent read. I especially liked this nugget of truth “stop being an idiot and let variance take its course”.

  • FitFantasyGod

    @NDNole said...

    Decent read. I especially liked this nugget of truth “stop being an idiot and let variance take its course”.

    Hey man thank you for reading and thank you for the comment! Super appreciate any feedback

  • NDNole

    @Njsum1 said...

    If Trae sits, my optimal has Lou

    Probably not good for you that I agree with that lol.

  • Njsum1

    @FitFantasyGod said...

    Hey man thank you for reading and thank you for the comment! Super appreciate any feedback

    Solid read….If I’m between 2 players or a 2 v2 swap, I just make another lineup.

    Just variance, especially in MLB, NHL, or NFL
    No need to try and “research” your way to the right answer. As there is no right answer. One may score more 55% of the time, the other 45%. Might as well have both. Ownership might be lower on the 45% player(s)

    No need to overthink, just think for yourself and your lineups will be contrarian, as no one thinks exactly alike

  • monarch

    I will probably have mainly Middleton and Holiday at CPT. They are above 1.4 FPPM with Giannis and Donte off and then they are looking at 42+ minutes so that is basically a 60 DK baseline give or take a few in each direction. Nobody on Atlanta is touching that and there are enough cheap options that it kinda just works. This is contingent on a competitive game.

  • Njsum1

    @monarch said...

    I will probably have mainly Middleton and Holiday at CPT. They are above 1.4 FPPM with Giannis and Donte off and then they are looking at 42+ minutes so that is basically a 60 DK baseline give or take a few in each direction. Nobody on Atlanta is touching that and there are enough cheap options that it kinda just works. This is contingent on a competitive game.

    On Dk…Assume Trae is out and stick Lou at captain and go Middleton, Holiday, Brolo and Portis and then Zero out the salary with the last player

    Likely have to share it multiple ways, yet it seems like the optimal to me if Lou can score like 30-35

  • monarch

    I just crunched 20 lineups with Lou projected for 30 DK (fair?) and I handcrafted all my other projections based on CourtIQ and I generated one CPT Lou lineup. If I give him 35 DK then I get two CPT Lou lineups. All roads are leading to Middleton and Holiday for me.

    I don’t think I will get to any CPT Lou lineups at the end of the day.

  • FitFantasyGod

    @Njsum1 said...

    Solid read….If I’m between 2 players or a 2 v2 swap, I just make another lineup.

    Just variance, especially in MLB, NHL, or NFL
    No need to try and “research” your way to the right answer. As there is no right answer. One may score more 55% of the time, the other 45%. Might as well have both. Ownership might be lower on the 45% player(s)

    No need to overthink, just think for yourself and your lineups will be contrarian, as no one thinks exactly alike

    Love the strategy, makes a ton of sense. Couldn’t agree more that you should always just think for yourself. Appreciate the comment and taking the time to read!

  • monarch

    If Trae does play it is a serious downgrade to Brook Lopez.

  • mike42

    It’s insane how much production on MILW will come from just 4 guys and that’s assuming Portis plays well on the road, which I’m skeptical of. I know it would help me if 20k gans were chanting my name at work. Always been a thing that role players play better at home in the playoffs and I’m going to play that angle with Portis even though he’s starting. FD has Brolo at 16 pts projected and it seems really low. I liked him to blow up last game but I think he still does well now. He’s their third option and maybe even the second with Giannis out Vs this ATL team on the road. I think Kris goes for 30+ and Brolo for 20+. Just going to assume that Jrue and Portis are better at home and Tucker/bench don’t score much.

    Collins found his groove later in the last game and I read an article in the Athletic about how he’s the heart and soul of this team. He puked his first 10 mins or so of last game or he would have smashed. I think he ends up being the ATL guy you really need even if Trae plays. WIth Giannis out and foul trouble being less likely as a result, it makes sense that he puts up better numbers. ATL’s solution to their paint problems should include him too.

  • mike42

    @monarch said...

    If Trae does play it is a serious downgrade to Brook Lopez.

    Don’t overthink him. He’s playing the minutes with ABC out and he’s going to be an option on O one way or another. He went 0-2 last game from downtown last game but that’s also another way he can pile up points. MILW does not have other trustworthy options. It’s not Portis or Brolo anymore, it’s both.

  • monarch

    @mike42 said...

    Don’t overthink him. He’s playing the minutes with ABC out and he’s going to be an option on O one way or another. He went 0-2 last game from downtown last game but that’s also another way he can pile up points. MILW does not have other trustworthy options. It’s not Portis or Brolo anymore, it’s both.

    He cannot exist on the floor with Trae Young on. They put Brolo in the PnR, he camps out at the elbow as help defender on the Capela/Collins rolls and Trae has a field day.

    I actually may play some 1k Thanasis if Trae Young plays. They will want to be able to switch onto him and a Holiday, Middleton, Tucker, Thanasis core can do that plus he gets the blowout run if it were to happen. Thanasis was in the rotation last game but barely played as Lopez/Portis went off which they could again but the Hawks implied total continues to rise this afternoon which tells me the Bucks are less likely to exist with PJ Tucker and two centers on the floor.

  • realphipps

    I lean with Monarch here. If Trae plays, and it’s 30+ mins, and he’s mostly healthy…

    I think we’ll see a lot of Portis/PJ in the frontcourt. It’s true Lopez is option #3 on offense now, but MIL just hands over free baskets when Lopez is asked to play 40+ possessions of half-court defense against a heavy PnR offensive philosophy.

    A healthy Trae could mean 28 mins of Brook instead of 38.

    Or Trae just sits. And it’s all moot.

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