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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    I will edit the games as they go but let’s keep all of the playoff talk in one thread. I have already combined previous threads together. Thanks!

    Tuesday
    8:30pm Atlanta at Cleveland(-8) —- T:193.5 (Cavs lead series 3-0)

    Wednesday
    9:00pm Houston at Golden State(-10.5) —- T:215.5 (Warriors lead series 3-1)

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. Please make it a point to say if you’re talking about Cash or GPP options

  • okmrbill

    Feeling a little blinded without seeing both teams match-ups with the NBA playoffs picks….but then with these two match-ups I still feel left me in the dark anyways. Logic tells me to lean a little more on the home court advantage teams. Yet all #4 teams have key players that will score regardless. So there goes another $5-ducks chasing the big names producers and offsetting them with the best-of-the-bench leftovers…to mesh the the ole-bankroll. But loving the forum…please do-tell your strategy an more importantly the whys behind it.

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    One game has a total of 219.5, the other a total of 197. That should tell you which game you should be focusing on.

  • rambotex

    I’m wondering if Muscala & Lee will continue to get 15 minutes

  • frugal

    @thehazyone said...

    One game has a total of 219.5, the other a total of 197. That should tell you which game you should be focusing on.

    I’m not so sure. I know the odds are not an absolute prediction of the game score but the Warriors are also favored by 10.5 pointing to a potential blowout scenario in which the premium player’s minutes could be limited. Hawks are listed as 1 point favorites pointing to a much closer game in which all starters will play high minutes.

  • herberh2

    I think the 20+ point difference in the totals holds more weight than a blowout vs close game. But then again, everyone is probably attracted to the GSW/HOU game so maybe the way to win a big GPP is to load up on CLE/ATL. hmmm…..brb loading up on CLE/ATL….

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    @frugal said...

    I’m not so sure. I know the odds are not an absolute prediction of the game score but the Warriors are also favored by 10.5 pointing to a potential blowout scenario in which the premium player’s minutes could be limited. Hawks are listed as 1 point favorites pointing to a much closer game in which all starters will play high minutes.

    you should definitely have 2-3 players from the ATL-CLE game in each lineup. Sometimes 4. More often than not though, you should have more from GS-HOU.

    Just my opinion. I’m doing 50 lineups for this first two-game slate and will definitely have a few second game stacks. Just going to have more that favor the first game. Vegas doesn’t lie. And in the playoffs, they won’t usually rest the starters unless it’s a 20 point lead with 8 minutes left in the 4th quarter. I’ll take my chances on that not happening.

  • mabrla

    The best strategy for cashing is minimizing risk IMO. When I was on that losing streak I was getting too cute with my LU’s trying to make sure I had something “different”. If your research overwhelmingly points to a few guys then use them!

    Also, does anyone else put together fun lineups that you know can’t win it all just for your own amusement at lower stakes? I made a fun first game stack aside from my normal lineups. That LU’s only goal is to be the highest scoring 8/1 stack…then idc what happens to it ha.

  • frugal

    @thehazyone said...

    you should definitely have 2-3 players from the ATL-CLE game in each lineup. Sometimes 4. More often than not though, you should have more from GS-HOU.

    Just my opinion. I’m doing 50 lineups for this first two-game slate and will definitely have a few second game stacks. Just going to have more that favor the first game. Vegas doesn’t lie. And in the playoffs, they won’t usually rest the starters unless it’s a 20 point lead with 8 minutes left in the 4th quarter. I’ll take my chances on that not happening.

    I agree Vegas doesn’t “lie” and the line isn’t always about accurately predicting the score but trying to create even betting scenarios. Someone like you doing a ton of lineups can easily cast a wide net to maximize exposure and minimize risk. Those of us who only throw in a handful (or less) of lineups need to think a bit more carefully about the matchups and outcomes to increase chances of winning. I’ve only got 3 lineups for these games as I want to see the matchups first as in both cases neither team has faced the other with their current lineups during the regular season. There are some valid questions regarding defensive switches and role player minutes/effectiveness out there.

  • mabrla

    @frugal said...

    I agree Vegas doesn’t “lie” and the line isn’t always about accurately predicting the score but trying to create even betting scenarios. Someone like you doing a ton of lineups can easily cast a wide net to maximize exposure and minimize risk. Those of us who only throw in a handful (or less) of lineups need to think a bit more carefully about the matchups and outcomes to increase chances of winning. I’ve only got 3 lineups for these games as I want to see the matchups first as in both cases neither team has faced the other with their current lineups during the regular season. There are some valid questions regarding defensive switches and role player minutes/effectiveness out there.

    You just have to look at statistics vs. trends. For example…Horford is #1 this playoffs in buckets off the pick and roll (74). Putting that info against Cleveland’s pick and roll defense stats should accurately predict how well he should play. It’s all about what one team does well vs. what the other team does well defensively. The lineup stuff only can predict usage rates. It can’t predict how well a player will play vs. who is defending him. It’s too often overlooked.

  • nita0311

    the Houston/Golden State game is about to be as high scoring as the Houston/LAC game was… splash everywhere… im just proud I got all the big dogs in my line up! I mean, I never thought I could fit everyone but I did…and im hoping the value plays I picked just make it a dream for ya girl because my line up is a beast… Harden vs Thompson.. and sorry Howard vs Bogut is a no brainer… although Harford is appealing…I feel like him, Millsap and D greene are going to be highly owned and if my predictions are right and I go with everyone else…I may crack that top 5… we shall see…I just need the NBA grind down to come out to solidify what I want to do …

  • nita0311

    @herberh2 said...

    I think the 20+ point difference in the totals holds more weight than a blowout vs close game. But then again, everyone is probably attracted to the GSW/HOU game so maybe the way to win a big GPP is to load up on CLE/ATL. hmmm…..brb loading up on CLE/ATL….

    I read your statement wrong edit but, I don’t think for one second the GS/HOU game will be a blowout…however the Clev/ATL game may be an upset if Lebron channels his inner Jordan #GameOver for Atlanta

  • deerosa

    Was really hoping Kyrie was out :(. Looks like I am loading up on that Hou/GS game :).

    Still like both Lee and Shump tonite.

  • nita0311

    Me too Deerosa!

  • Mindofigor

    I’m targeting both games equally. I’ve cashed in plenty of gpp’s stacking a game with a projection of 189 points. Just means more rebounds and other stats to be had.

  • nita0311

    @Stylerip said...

    I’m targeting both games equally. I’ve cashed in plenty of gpp’s stacking a game with a projection of 189 points. Just means more rebounds and other stats to be had.

    this is true!

  • bocachuu

    Everyone talking about blowouts and players being rested obviously didn’t watch last round. As I said on the other thread Kerr loves riding his guys and they’re all going to get their minutes. Curry was being put back into the game with over 9 minutes left in the 4th quarter last series even though they were ahead by 10-15 points in some games and was being left out there for the rest of the game usually even though the leads sometimes got up to 20+. All the guys are going to get their minutes.

  • anygame4u

    I think having Howard in your LU is very important tonight, there’s always a risky of early fouls but thats a huge mismatch. If Howard can put up 40+ fantasy pts on D. Jordan he should easily be able to do that vs Bogus I mean Bogut lol

  • frugal

    @mabrla said...

    You just have to look at statistics vs. trends. For example…Horford is #1 this playoffs in buckets off the pick and roll (74). Putting that info against Cleveland’s pick and roll defense stats should accurately predict how well he should play. It’s all about what one team does well vs. what the other team does well defensively. The lineup stuff only can predict usage rates. It can’t predict how well a player will play vs. who is defending him. It’s too often overlooked.

    Line up can only predict usage rates…huh? I know what your getting at, comparing performance scenarios. But in the playoffs you get skewed pictures about team performance from a prior series when looking to the next as coaches will adjust strategy to matchup and it gets more complex the deeper you go and in this case the Hawks and never played Cleveland as currently constructed and the Wariors never played Houston as currently constructed (health considered). It’s really an exciting series from that perspective. That said, I don’t even need to look at any advanced stats to predict the Hawks and Rockets bigs have the potential to be very successful. My biggest questions are about Curry and Harden. Curry has the much better matchup, but I have this feeling that Harden is going to be playing like a man possessed trying to prove he is the real MVP

  • frugal

    @bocachuu said...

    Everyone talking about blowouts and players being rested obviously didn’t watch last round. As I said on the other thread Kerr loves riding his guys and they’re all going to get their minutes. Curry was being put back into the game with over 9 minutes left in the 4th quarter last series even though they were ahead by 10-15 points in some games and was being left out there for the rest of the game usually even though the leads sometimes got up to 20+. All the guys are going to get their minutes.

    On the flip side, McHale pulled Harden in the 4th of game 6 when it looked like a blow out but Houston’s bench saved the day.

  • kantiger77

    I have a handful of lineups in the quarter arcade but decided not to go beyond that into a sharpshooter. If one of those hits I’ll be glad for the $50-150 but NBA playoffs frustrated me last round.

  • nita0311

    I aint talking about no blow outs or players being rested..i think some of you read what you want LOL… good luck with your line ups… i’ll be back on here later tonite before the end of the game to see how everyone is doing! #Peace

  • mabrla

    @frugal said...

    Line up can only predict usage rates…huh? I know what your getting at, comparing performance scenarios. But in the playoffs you get skewed pictures about team performance from a prior series when looking to the next as coaches will adjust strategy to matchup and it gets more complex the deeper you go and in this case the Hawks and never played Cleveland as currently constructed and the Wariors never played Houston as currently constructed (health considered). It’s really an exciting series from that perspective. That said, I don’t even need to look at any advanced stats to predict the Hawks and Rockets bigs have the potential to be very successful. My biggest questions are about Curry and Harden. Curry has the much better matchup, but I have this feeling that Harden is going to be playing like a man possessed trying to prove he is the real MVP

    I agree, this match-up is going to be a great watch. Harden’s floor is 40 so I can’t see fading him. Hopefully he is a man possessed! Steph is going to be 70-80% owned so if he goes off you’re all but done unless you roster Kyrie and he puts up a 40-burger.

    I’ve had a tough time trying to figure out if Blatt fixed Cleveland’s pick-and-roll D, or if Gasol’s absence from the lineup made it seem like they did. Horford hits that 12 footer consistently just like Gasol… Is that enough good info to roster him over Dwight though? IDK.

  • bocachuu

    @frugal said...

    On the flip side, McHale pulled Harden in the 4th of game 6 when it looked like a blow out but Houston’s bench saved the day.

    No he didn’t pull Harden with the intention of resting him for the rest of the game. He came out for some rest and when the bench went in they absolutely dominated and brought the rockets back into the game so he stuck with them. Mchale wasn’t throwing up the white flag on potentially their last game of the season in the third quarter.

  • dadon

    barnes/dwight or horford/thompson?

  • DK_Ninjaaaaa

    @thehazyone said...

    you should definitely have 2-3 players from the ATL-CLE game in each lineup. Sometimes 4. More often than not though, you should have more from GS-HOU.

    Just my opinion. I’m doing 50 lineups for this first two-game slate and will definitely have a few second game stacks. Just going to have more that favor the first game. Vegas doesn’t lie. And in the playoffs, they won’t usually rest the starters unless it’s a 20 point lead with 8 minutes left in the 4th quarter. I’ll take my chances on that not happening.

    hi my name is hazy… and im a dfs addict :)
    50 lineups?! i have a hard time finding more than 10 that i like on the 2 game slates

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