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  • ColdSnowmanZ

    Bit of a rant, and just a bit of a discussion. How does anyone make any money from NBA dfs? Title should prob be NBA seems pretty pointless, to me. I can certainly understand people make money from it, but I’m a bit frustrated. Every play just seems telegraphed. It has to be the loosest sport for dfs. In before people respond and say just because you don’t profit from it, doesn’t mean other people don’t. I understand that. And yes, I am what people like to talk about/complain about on this forum, a “pro”. I’m curious on everyones opinion whether they are a casual player or more serious. The month of January this year I played NBA every day and lost every single time, cash games and GPP. Losing streaks are to be expected but that seemed a bit much. I’ve contemplated the fact that I’m just not good enough to be profitable at NBA dfs, but looking for outside opinions.

  • MotownGreek

    I’m not a big fan of NBA DFS, but that’s likely because I’m not a big fan of basketball. I actually found the game to be easy, as in I routinely was cashing in 50/50s and single entry gpps. I more or less picked players others were high on and didn’t have a strong understanding of the strategy required to take down a gpp. It may have been some beginners luck, or maybe basketball is an easy sport for DFS, not sure. Despite winning a few bucks in NBA slates I got no enjoyment out of it. I also don’t think my strategy is sustainable.

    I’d rather stick to NHL, MLB, NFL, and golf. They’re all sports I’m passionate about, follow closely, and in the case of golf, competed in seriously for a while. I also find sports with higher variance (don’t think NBA fits, but could be wrong), provide a better opportunity for success to those that follow them closer and study the game.

    Maybe that answers your question, maybe not, it is pretty late at night after all!

  • ColdSnowmanZ

    @MotownGreek said...

    I’m not a big fan of NBA DFS, but that’s likely because I’m not a big fan of basketball. I actually found the game to be easy, as in I routinely was cashing in 50/50s and single entry gpps. I more or less picked players others were high on and didn’t have a strong understanding of the strategy required to take down a gpp. It may have been some beginners luck, or maybe basketball is an easy sport for DFS, not sure. Despite winning a few bucks in NBA slates I got no enjoyment out of it. I also don’t think my strategy is sustainable.

    I’d rather stick to NHL, MLB, NFL, and golf. They’re all sports I’m passionate about, follow closely, and in the case of golf, competed in seriously for a while. I also find sports with higher variance (don’t think NBA fits, but could be wrong), provide a better opportunity for success to those that follow them closer and study the game.

    Maybe that answers your question, maybe not, it is pretty late at night after all!

    Appreciate the respone, Greek. It probably doesn’t answer my overall questions but you make a lot of good points. Normally as someone who profits from dfs, variance is a nice word in my vocabulary. It explains away the times I lose. The problem with NBA I think is lineups get narrowed down so much betwen must play guys that are starting due to another players injury, and guys that are underpriced, lineups are pretty obvious. This wouldn’t be much of a problem until you factor in rake and I just don’t see the point. Thanks again for the response

  • MotownGreek

    @ColdSnowmanZ said...

    The problem with NBA I think is lineups get narrowed down so much betwen must play guys that are starting due to another players injury, and guys that are underpriced, lineups are pretty obvious.

    That’s why I don’t enjoy it much. It seems everyone has the same list of 20-30 players and some combination of those players will win most nights. I could be wrong, as I said I don’t play a lot of NBA DFS.

    Looks at MLB and NHL winners and you will see people with 3rd line pairings or bottom of the lineup stacks that come out of left field but win somewhat regularly. Making those tough decisions and picking those low ownership guys are fun sometimes, something I don’t fee you can do in NBA.

  • ColdSnowmanZ

    @MotownGreek said...

    That’s why I don’t enjoy it much. It seems everyone has the same list of 20-30 players and some combination of those players will win most nights. I could be wrong, as I said I don’t play a lot of NBA DFS.

    Looks at MLB and NHL winners and you will see people with 3rd line pairings or bottom of the lineup stacks that come out of left field but win somewhat regularly. Making those tough decisions and picking those low ownership guys are fun sometimes, something I don’t fee you can do in NBA.

    Agree with pretty much everything you’ve said. Even on an 8 or 10 game slate for NBA its hard to differentiate from others on obvious lineups. It might scream parody for the NBA considering 2 teams make/win the finals every year. To the people reading this I’m not trying to be a whiner, just open to some discussion.

  • emoney1214

    I have just come off a terrible run and I am basically gonna be low volume, at least for a bit. I’ve had bad runs before and came back strong, but I’ve come to a epiphany of sorts. I have been playing for years. When I started, there was very little information out there for nba dfs. I had a huge edge just based upon my nba knowledge and eye test. Also, there were a ton of bad players. If any news broke late, a good amount of people just wouldn’t react. The sites didn’t show questionable, out, or probable which also helped any decent and attentive players. If there was late news, there would be a bunch of dead lineups. There also weren’t lineup builders or models out for the public. Now everyone is using them. I would say 95% of people now have a lineup in cash that is not bad. We just don’t have the easy fish like before. Everyone is on the same obvious plays at a much higher percentage, so where is the edge? I still think I can out think others on fringe plays, but between randomness of the game, and the rake I’m not making any money. I have always been a cash player, but I think GPP’s are the only way to have a chance, but I don’t think it’s a long term winning strategy, more just a better way to play the lottery.

    I have a decent sample size showing how profitable I am in the first 4 weeks or so of nfl and first couple of weeks for the nba before models and trends really start to normalize and show patterns. In the NFL i thought it was a fluke I would win the first 4 weeks and break even for the rest of the season, but now it can’t be dismissed. Once all the information and patterns are seen and shared, the edge decreases drastically. I’ve known and tried to dismiss this for years, but its getting worse. I’ll still try to have fun throwing lineups in tournaments, but I’d hate to be the guy that gave up his day job to do this. I guess that’s why so many “experts” have to start working for sites.

  • MotownGreek

    @emoney1214 said...

    I have been playing for years. When I started, there was very little information out there for nba dfs. I had a huge edge just based upon my nba knowledge and eye test. Also, there were a ton of bad players. If any news broke late, a good amount of people just wouldn’t react.

    And this is why I like NHL so much. The resources are available for NHL, don’t get me wrong, but they’re harder to find. You can’t just YouTube a video a few hours before the slate starts and get the key plays for the night. The edge is still there but for how much longer I don’t know.

  • ColdSnowmanZ

    @emoney1214 said...

    Once all the information and patterns are seen and shared, the edge decreases drastically. I’ve known and tried to dismiss this for years, but its getting worse. I’ll still try to have fun throwing lineups in tournaments, but I’d hate to be the guy that gave up his day job to do this. I guess that’s why so many “experts” have to start working for sites.

    For me it’s not any other sport except this one. NFL is king by far, whether it be DFS or season long. Information everywhere you look, yet I never have a problem long term profiting against others. With NBA, maybe I’m just not getting it. Maybe going off on a tangent here, but it wouldn’t be such an issue if rake weren’t so high. I won an NBA contest last year for 30k, and I haven’t done anything other than min cash at best since. Lots of the best players have transitioned from playing, to providing information, or doing something else, or just quitting. I think that speaks volumes. I suppose I’m looking for an answer from someone who even grinds out a profit at NBA over a significant period of time. Doesn’t seem possible to me.

  • emoney1214

    Yeah. I have grinded a profit for the last 5 years or so. It’s definitely possible but I’m not so good with bankroll management. And while I should know this for a fact, most of my money has been made on top gpp finishes even though I play about 80% cash. Also to the NFL point, there are just still so many casuals if you are good it’s way easier to grind cash

  • Trappist1

    Information scarcity is king in DFS, this is where the edge lies. The mainstream sports are now approaching the efficient market and information saturation.NBA has less variance compared to other games, but the field has got smarter and it is hard to get away from the field. As the NBA season progress after the New Year, it will be the hard-core players left there as well.

    CFB, CBB, MMA, Golf, Esports, Nascar and even NHL/MLB have still some sort of information scarcity. But the prize pools are much lower and they have to their own niche specialist one has to beat. In a few seasons all the information scarcity will be gone and then will be time to move on.

  • BigRay

    @Trappist1 said...

    Information scarcity is king in DFS, this is where the edge lies. The mainstream sports are now approaching the efficient market and information saturation.NBA has less variance compared to other games, but the field has got smarter and it is hard to get away from the field. As the NBA season progress after the New Year, it will be the hard-core players left there as well.

    ^^^^
    This.

    NBA seems so much tougher this season for the reasons stated above. I also have not been doing as well this season as in the past. I have noticed that what were in the past “sneaky” plays are sometimes now 40% owned. I guess every one follows twitter these days.

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    @BigRay said...

    ^^^^
    This.

    NBA seems so much tougher this season for the reasons stated above. I also have not been doing as well this season as in the past. I have noticed that what were in the past “sneaky” plays are sometimes now 40% owned. I guess every one follows twitter these days.

    The industry in whole has become MUCH MUCH more informed. Everyone is using a site, projection system, etc.. Even casuals now. 2 years ago, guys in my home Poker league knew nothing about the many various sites. Now pretty much all of them that play DFS use either RG or another site to get help.

    For example, when there’s a guy late scratched, let’s say 20 minutes before lock, his replacement is now 60% or higher owned (of course I’m using an example of a player in a good spot). 2-3 years ago, in that same situation, that player would have been 20-30% owned tops.

    It’s not just NBA though, it’s MLB as well. NFL is really the only big DFS sport that there still can be an edge as so many casuals don’t think they need help, because they watch the games and think they know enough on their own. Heck, some cases they do!

  • Kmasonbx

    I only play 2 sports, NFL and NBA, I suck at NFL and am decent at basketball. Going back to last all-star break I’ve been fairly profitable during the regular season (playoffs last year sucked for me). The biggest thing for me is I just get basketball been playing and following the game intently since I was 9, I even scouted high school basketball for a few years. While just getting basketball isn’t enough it does help when trying to sift through the good and bad information out there. Aside from what has already been mentioned the most important thing is to take the time to actually utilize the tools that are out there. CourtIQ projections in LineupHQ are free, there’s no excuse not to utilize these tools. And honestly CourtIQ is better than any for pay information out there.

    Also game selection is very important, it makes no sense to me that people flood cash games that have 13% rake on DraftKings when you can play cash games/leagues that don’t have guarantees for a 9.1% rake. If the goal is to make money, reducing your rake by 30% is a big deal. Here’s an example of the impact that has; a theoretical $1 double up that has a 13% rake and 1000 people, 435 people would finish in the money whereas with the 9.1% 454.5 people would finish in the money. That’s 39 extra dollars that goes to the players rather than the site and 19.5 extra payouts that goes a long way for someone who plays every day.

    GPPs are ridiculous, they are nearly impossible to turn a long term profit with the insane rake and poor payout structures. But people dream of the big hit

  • TheRyanFlaherty

    I generally enjoy (and am profitable) NBA until we reach the point of the season where injuries and rest become out of control and the entire slate devolves into hitting refresh and finding “value”.

    I would say I have had a different perception of this season than many here. The insane pace, leading to more possessions, more points, more counting stats has created a variance that I have not seen in past seasons…at least if we’re talking about playing GPP’s. It seems like virtually every player in the league is capable of putting up 40+ in any given night and in every game you’ll find 30+ point nights from guys getting only 20 minutes or so on the court. Defense as a whole is largely non-exisistent as I can’t tel you how many times already that I faded someone due to matchup only to see them go off.

    Anyways, I do agree that NBA is likely the most competitive sport out there. It’s definitely not easy to beat, so I’d youre not finding fun in the process it’s likely a good idea to move your money elsewhere…but I do think this season has more of a lottery quality then in past seasons. Its not always the best strategy to go stars and scrubs (or chalk) with the numbers being put up on a nightly basis.

  • Morley

    Couldn’t agree more with all the variance happening this year, lots of head scratching box scores.

    For me though, I’m having one hell of a season thus far, play every night and only once didn’t profit with a sightly down night. Like last night, I didn’t have Kyrie, or any of the big performers, invested heavily in Giannis, had a lot of McKinnie (who despite being in a blowout didn’t soak up minutes) and still won all my h2h and even snagged final spot with a McKinnie rebound in a $$$ single entry I registered last minute in due to overlay.

    I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop but it seems when things have been going poorly for me, they’ve been going far worse for others.

    I think if you’re only having trouble this year don’t sweat it too much yet. If you’ve historically lost in nba… well this is the most reliable one, you just may not be well suited for it.

    I just want mlb to start again, a sport where on a night with multiple aces pitching your h2h opponent chose Bartolo Colon at Fenway and also rolled out 3 guys all with high postponement chances for rain delay. Can’t wait for mlb again :)

  • mbunner23

    There’s no longer an edge in NBA. Like mentioned above, everybody has the same information to look at. Take a look at cash games, most rosters are identical, if you miss on one player that’s highly owned, your night is over. This season has become entirely frustrating for me…same research that I put in last season has lost me a few hundred dollars this season. I did well last year to make some money and finish top 5 in a couple GPPs, I can’t figure out how to make a lineup this season to save my life…..welcome to the new NBA DFS where any Joe Blow can make a decent cash lineup with 5 min of research.

  • sochoice

    • 2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2017 FanDuel WFFC Champion

    Last couple seasons NBA has become extremely hard. I can still make money on DK, but FanDuel’s clown move of dropping the lowest score makes NBA there an 8 man clusterf. Have taken my volume down about 90% there.

  • kbsktbll88

    I play for a couple of different reasons. For one, basketball is the only sport I’ve ever played, watched and enjoyed. I watch NBA every night. Rockets games when they’re on, and other teams when they’re not playing. And playing DFS is also a way to keep me engaged with other teams other than the Rockets. Lastly, I play because I work from home and I’m in front of my computer all day, and I have a lot of free time to work on lineups. It gives me something to do since my job is pretty boring most of the times.

    I’m a casual player though, I only play a handful of lineups every night. I’ve actually done pretty well over the last few years, nothing crazy, but profitable. I’ve finished top 10 in multiple GPP’s but never finished 1st which is something I’m still trying to do. But like everyone said it has gotten harder cause of all the information and tools available.

  • drewcrawford03

    • 314

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • 2019 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    @sochoice said...

    Last couple seasons NBA has become extremely hard. I can still make money on DK, but FanDuel’s clown move of dropping the lowest score makes NBA there an 8 man clusterf. Have taken my volume down about 90% there.

    ^^ This….

    I had a lot of success grinding NBA on FD every day last season, was off to a dreadful start this season, and just called it quits. The drop a score is a complete disaster from a competitive standpoint. It’s just not worth it, in addition to the fact that the edge appears to have been diminished to a point where it can’t beat the rake.

  • SkateFiend

    It’s tough to field a strategically unique lineup at FD. At DK I can start 3 or 4 centers to fill the F spots. I can stack Jokic and Embiid at Yahoo if I wanted to. You can’t do that at FD. It’s the only big site that doesn’t offer UTIL or generic G and F spots.

    SG and F are super volatile positions, and FD forces you to plug in 6 of those spots. The chances of you getting 4 forwards right (even having them just reach the floor consistently) is really low. LMA and Griffin can sink your teams with 20, 30 points on any given night.

  • moped_jones

    @sochoice said...

    Last couple seasons NBA has become extremely hard. I can still make money on DK, but FanDuel’s clown move of dropping the lowest score makes NBA there an 8 man clusterf. Have taken my volume down about 90% there.

    I agree. I am not having fun on FD this year. I typically don’t start doing well in the NBA until after the new year (that’s pretty much when you know who’s good and who’s not) so if I’m still doing poorly then I’m going to switch back to DraftKings.

  • moped_jones

    @drewcrawford03 said...

    ^^ This….

    I had a lot of success grinding NBA on FD every day last season, was off to a dreadful start this season, and just called it quits. The drop a score is a complete disaster from a competitive standpoint. It’s just not worth it, in addition to the fact that the edge appears to have been diminished to a point where it can’t beat the rake.

    Hopefully they switch back soon or at the very least start to offer their old contests again. I have yet to hear anyone say anything positive about it (granted, I’m not on here a ton, but most of what I’ve seen is people disliking it).

  • Wrx_guy

    @sochoice said...

    Last couple seasons NBA has become extremely hard. I can still make money on DK, but FanDuel’s clown move of dropping the lowest score makes NBA there an 8 man clusterf. Have taken my volume down about 90% there.

    Yea fanduel is definitely a cluster now. I cant believe they thought it would be a good idea. Some people might not agree but your goal now is to find a player thats around 4k or below. Last season you actually had to look for value, now you can plug in Timofey Mozgov every single time the Magic play (or any other random person) and not really give 2 shits. They need to find a better solution.

  • dartjeff

    @Wrx_guy said...

    Yea fanduel is definitely a cluster now. I cant believe they thought it would be a good idea. Some people might not agree but your goal now is to find a player thats around 4k or below. Last season you actually had to look for value, now you can plug in Timofey Mozgov every single time the Magic play (or any other random person) and not really give 2 shits. They need to find a better solution.

    Yeah, I agree. After playing this drop the lowest score format for awhile now, I don’t like it. I think they definitely dumbed down the game by only making 8 players count instead of 9. I wouldn’t mind it as much if they added a 10th player, and drop your lowest score, so that there’s still as much strategy as last year. But would prefer they just go to late swap.

  • dolphinkick182

    @dartjeff said...

    Yeah, I agree. After playing this drop the lowest score format for awhile now, I don’t like it. I think they definitely dumbed down the game by only making 8 players count instead of 9. I wouldn’t mind it as much if they added a 10th player, and drop your lowest score, so that there’s still as much strategy as last year. But would prefer they just go to late swap.

    10 and drop is interesting…..IDK. But I DO know late swap is the way to go.

  • CJtheGrump

    My problem seems to be that I’m always one play away from the cash line in doule ups. In the case of last night, I had 4 lineups in a tournament and 1 in a cash game. Tourneys did fine. Not great, but fine. Maybe it’s that in the cash games, I’m too reluctant to make changes because “safety”. Or maybe they’re riskier (ironically) simply because the whole field is sharper.

    I review the results DB and often, the cash lines for gpps and double ups are often quite close. There are some exceptions but it almost seems more efficient to not bother wuth double ups at all.

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