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  • sjmay111

    It was suggested I start a new thread so here we go,

    New to DFS, dabbled in it a few years ago, and now, I’m back, focusing on it, focusing on MLB because right now, that’s the game.

    Here is my research pattern, I say pattern, but it’s been 3 days, so it is what it is, I map out the slate I want, log the pitchers, how they perform vs LHH, vs RHH, based on if they are home or away, then log the vegas odds against them for team runs, their K/9, ERA, XFIP, flyball % ground ball %, I then map out the OFFENSE against them, by seeing how that offense performs, LHH and RHH separated based on home or way, then log as a TEAM, k&, ISO, WOBA, WRC+, flyball, and flyball vs homerun, so for tonight, one of the games looks like this,

    K/9 ERA XFIP Hand Home/Away FB % GB % Batters Offense Faced K% ISO OBA FB% HR/FB % WRC+
    A. Sanchez 8.1 0 5.27 R Home 33 33 RHH Minnesota 19 0.298 0.396 43 18 149
    A. Sanchez 10.8 0 5.12 R Home 50 50 LHH Minnesota 17 0.211 0.322 41 15 102
    4.5 O/U 1.97 Odds

    A bit nearer on the spread sheet, but this, tells me Minnesota again, is an offense I want a part of tonight, regardless of Sanchez’s K/9 and actual ERA, I think Minny’s gonna do what they did last night,

    So then, I will take Minnesota’s players, and break them down based on the same, numbers as the team, to target individual players etc,

    Is there anything I am missing? Granted, I am only using 2019 numbers, because well I’m an idiot and new, the 2019 numbers led me to Arizona etc,

    Tips, pointers, etc?

    Appreciate it guys, Thanks

  • sochoice

    • 2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2017 FanDuel WFFC Champion

    Well, since Minnesota was a bust, go back and look at your research and see what you missed. Start there and see what you can learn and then integrate into future research. Good luck with it all.

  • AlexSonty

    • 395

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Blogger of the Month

    Scruntize everything you’re looking at. Ask if it actually tells you anything. Ask if it’s redundant. Being new to this, you should look to cut out the noise before trying to cover all bases.

  • bucherpsu08

    Why are you so focused on home/away splits? You’re taking an already small 2019 sample size and making it even smaller.

  • d735123

    @AlexSonty said...

    Scruntize everything you’re looking at. Ask if it actually tells you anything. Ask if it’s redundant. Being new to this, you should look to cut out the noise before trying to cover all bases.

    I second the comment on redundancy. Ask yourself, for example, if all that work on batters is providing you any more information beyond knowing, say, implied run total plus a guy’s place in the batting order. And if the answer is yes, then ask yourself whether the average fan is likely to see the same extra info that you see. If that answer is yes, then that extra info will be reflected in ownership %, thereby nullifying the work you’ve done.

  • sjmay111

    @AlexSonty said...

    Scruntize everything you’re looking at. Ask if it actually tells you anything. Ask if it’s redundant. Being new to this, you should look to cut out the noise before trying to cover all bases.

    Good point, then from what I can tell……ISO is telling me raw power, FB/HR% is saying how often a FB turns into a HR, wOBA says how efficient, might not be the right word, but often a hitter gets on base, and wRC+ is runs created all things being equal…..

    Is any of that redundant? I think it’s correlated, a high wOBA is going to create a high wRC+ for the most part, while a low ISO generally is reflected by a low FB/HR %

  • NiamLeeson

    Just FYI: researching too much can taint your view on certain players and not allow you to diversify your lineups enough to win anything. Sometimes you need to take chances and go against numbers.

  • clrockny24

    I’m not really that great when it comes to research, but with MLB, it seems to me to be the most likely sport where a ton of research can blow up in your face. Stats might tell you one thing, and your gut might tell you something else.

    Two examples from the Grind down, last night they said to avoid Gibson Vs. the Blue Jays. My gut told me to ignore the stats and play him. After all, he was pitching against the Blue Jays. He was one of the top pitchers on the slate.

  • Jvanspro

    @NiamLeeson said...

    Just FYI: researching too much can taint your view on certain players and not allow you to diversify your lineups enough to win anything. Sometimes you need to take chances and go against numbers.

    I would argue that diversifying your lineups can really limit you. I usually run 15 lineups with a really tight pool and do extremely well.

  • Jvanspro

    @clrockny24 said...

    I’m not really that great when it comes to research, but with MLB, it seems to me to be the most likely sport where a ton of research can blow up in your face. Stats might tell you one thing, and your gut might tell you something else.

    Two examples from the Grind down, last night they said to avoid Gibson Vs. the Blue Jays. My gut told me to ignore the stats and play him. After all, he was pitching against the Blue Jays. He was one of the top pitchers on the slate.

    If you did your own research you would’ve found Gibson was a great play. Dare I even call it obvious. I spent a lot of the day trying everything I could to convince myself that it can’t be right. I’m glad I was way over the field on him.

  • ocdobv

    @sochoice said...

    Well, since Minnesota was a bust, go back and look at your research and see what you missed. Start there and see what you can learn and then integrate into future research. Good luck with it all.

    The result of 1 game won’t tell you anything about your process.

  • lpdev

    @Jvanspro said...

    If you did your own research you would’ve found Gibson was a great play.

    I did my own research and didn’t find that Gibson was a great play. And if we had to replay the slate 10 more times, I’d stick to my guns. It’s easy to call a great play after the slate is over, but just because it works out doesn’t mean it was great. A 44 year old Bartolo Colon waddled out to the mound last season and pitched 7 perfect innings with 7K’s to the Houston Astros. I wouldn’t have called him a great play, but I guess he was after the slate ended.

  • NiamLeeson

    @Jvanspro said...

    I would argue that diversifying your lineups can really limit you. I usually run 15 lineups with a really tight pool and do extremely well.

    When all fifteen lineups cash it’s great but what type of GPPs are you talking about? I generally play two-game slate GPPs so the pool is already limited, but I still believe that there is a risk of looking at numbers too much which can taint your gut. Also, whatever model you use to make your lineups (if you use one at all) matters too. So many schools of thought.

    I had a hell of a week so far, won the “West Coast Special” (2,139-player two-game slate night contest) for over $5k twice in three days lol. I’d say to find what works for you and your bankroll though…that’s the most important thing, and it sounds simple but it can be difficult in practice.

  • Jvanspro

    @lpdev said...

    I did my own research and didn’t find that Gibson was a great play. And if we had to replay the slate 10 more times, I’d stick to my guns. It’s easy to call a great play after the slate is over, but just because it works out doesn’t mean it was great. A 44 year old Bartolo Colon waddled out to the mound last season and pitched 7 perfect innings with 7K’s to the Houston Astros. I wouldn’t have called him a great play, but I guess he was after the slate ended.

    You misunderstood what I meant or maybe I should clarify it. Did I really see him getting 11k’s? Hell no!! After the Blue Jays lineup came out I had him at 6.71 innings and 6.96 k’s with a solid chance at a W and QS. I also had him by far the highest value on the slate. Sale 2nd nearly a point and a half behind. So this is not an after the slate thing.

    The Blue Jays are a free swing team, even more so once the lineup was announced. Gibson relies on movement and keeping the batter off balance. His biggest issue is losing control at times and walks. However, the matchup fit as the Jays tend to chase and don’t walk much. Gibson also has a very good SwK%. This is what led me there.

    Tellez and Smoak were my only concerns.

    So please tell me Based on the research I just laid out, why you wouldn’t play him.

    Especially, at a 3700 discount off a chalk Sale? I never expected him to keep pace with Sale but saw a very clear path to 40 on FD.

    Please excuse any grammar or spelling mistakes. This post was done from my phone.

  • Jvanspro

    @NiamLeeson said...

    When all fifteen lineups cash it’s great but what type of GPPs are you talking about? I generally play two-game slate GPPs so the pool is already limited, but I still believe that there is a risk of looking at numbers too much which can taint your gut. Also, whatever model you use to make your lineups (if you use one at all) matters too. So many schools of thought.

    I had a hell of a week so far, won the “West Coast Special” (2,139-player two-game slate night contest) for over $5k twice in three days lol. I’d say to find what works for you and your bankroll though…that’s the most important thing, and it sounds simple but it can be difficult in practice.

    I agree, too much research can hurt you.

    I play main slates anywhere from 6-15 games so keeping a tight pool is key or you will be spread way too thin. In 2 game slates I would agree with you.

    As far as the model, I built my own model a few years ago the gives projections that are more then just the total. It’s also a data sheet. I’m sure it’s not perfect but the key is it’s different and I’m the only one using it. I think that is very important.

  • NiamLeeson

    @Jvanspro said...

    As far as the model, I built my own model a few years ago the gives projections that are more then just the total. It’s also a data sheet. I’m sure it’s not perfect but the key is it’s different and I’m the only one using it. I think that is very important.

    That’s exactly why I’ve always been high on FantasyLabs. I’ve tried other sites and their models are not tweakable, meaning that everyone who pays for it is getting the same model you are. On FantasyLabs you can tweak the model to adjust for different factors, which is invaluable. That being said, I’m almost certain that the way I devise my teams is not what most people are doing on FantasyLabs and it’s worked for me since I’ve been using it. Sometimes I just have to remind myself to trust the model though, because either way, you are going to have to fade certain players no matter how much you like them, and that can be easier said than done.

  • lpdev

    @Jvanspro said...

    So please tell me Based on the research I just laid out, why you wouldn’t play him.

    I draw names from a hat and his didn’t come out.

  • Jvanspro

    @lpdev said...

    I draw names from a hat and his didn’t come out.

    Lol

  • mtdurham

    im not good at baseball so take my advice for what its worth…. but i started by really focusing on OPS… ultimately i decided it was leading me too much towards guys who walk… and walks are for the most part trash in GPP…. so i started focusing a lot more on ISO (power) and my results got much better….

    in cash walks arent as bad as they can lead to steals and runs and we are trying to grind points and avoid zeros…. but in GPP we’re Sneak Peakin’ Dong Seekin’ Face Breakin’ Love Makin’ Eggs & Bacon’

    All day long.

  • Jvanspro

    Going back to the original question on the thread I would say the best advise I can give is come up with a process that works for you and repeat that process exactly every single day. Don’t waver at all. If your process is solid then you will do fine over the long haul.

    For me, I literally go through every game and write down the players I like from each team I like that day, keeping track of how many players I have from each position. This leads me to the stacks usually, or if it’s even going to be a stacking night.

    I do the same with the Pitchers. From there I look deeper at the teams I have 3 or more players from and decide whether to stack or use one offs.

    Once I have the number of stacks I want I then decide how to organize them and how much to use each one. This is my process in the simplest form.

    Only after that will I read a single article to see if I missed anything. IMO the worst thing you can do is let others influence you before you’ve narrowed down your player pool.

  • Jvanspro

    For those that would like to see what I look at I posted a couple screen shots below. Of course there is a ton more data that I use but wouldn’t fit on the screen shot but this should give you an idea. I hope this helps others.

    Batter Breakdown
    Pitcher Breakdown
    Lineup Eval

  • DFSx42

    @Jvanspro said...

    For those that would like to see what I look at I posted a couple screen shots below. Of course there is a ton more data that I use but wouldn’t fit on the screen shot but this should give you an idea. I hope this helps others.

    Batter Breakdown
    Pitcher Breakdown
    Lineup Eval

    I’m curious how do you go about scraping and compiling this, i’m looking to improve my own efficiency. feel free to pm if you don’t want to post that on the forum

  • sjmay111

    @Jvanspro said...

    Going back to the original question on the thread I would say the best advise I can give is come up with a process that works for you and repeat that process exactly every single day. Don’t waver at all. If your process is solid then you will do fine over the long haul.

    For me, I literally go through every game and write down the players I like from each team I like that day, keeping track of how many players I have from each position. This leads me to the stacks usually, or if it’s even going to be a stacking night.

    I do the same with the Pitchers. From there I look deeper at the teams I have 3 or more players from and decide whether to stack or use one offs.

    Once I have the number of stacks I want I then decide how to organize them and how much to use each one. This is my process in the simplest form.

    Only after that will I read a single article to see if I missed anything. IMO the worst thing you can do is let others influence you before you’ve narrowed down your player pool.

    Jvanspro,

    Thank you very much, question though, you say you go through every game and write down players you like etc…I’m assuming you do that AFTER all the numbers have populated in those screen shots sheets you sent? If not, how do you prevent bias from creeping into the process?

    My process is literally what I described up there, my problem is, either A. I don’t know enough about the sport to know what I am looking at, or I am hyperfocusing on the wrong stats, or both…

  • monarch

    On DK I look for pitchers with upside facing actual LUs that K at a high rate vs that type of pitcher. Ideally I can get two of them.

    For batters I really like stacks like Oakland/Houston on the road getting a positive park shift with guaranteed ninth inning bats. It’s a complete crapshoot…I lose most nights but am strictly chasing a high score and for the most part stay committed to the teams I like to target.

  • Jvanspro

    Great question. That is exactly what I do. Sometimes though you just have to go with your gut and include a player you have a feeling about even though the numbers don’t work. Most of the time for me this is done when I have a team that has a lot of players I like and want to stack. Or think they are in a lineup spot to see better pitches to hit. This is more about feel then the numbers honestly.

    Another example is lets say I only have 2-3 SS on my list. I will then go back and find a few that have potential that evening. Lastly, I know a lot is made about lineup position and yes, that is true but don’t just disregard a player due to the lineup spot. You can find a lot of excellent plays at low ownership batting lower in the order.

    One last thing I would note is in your original post you mentioned all the stats are from this season. When looking teams stats I wouldn’t even consider looking a home/road splits till mid June. I’ll look at overall handedness before then but just keep in mind these numbers are changing a lot and don’t ever really give you a true picture. Everyday the lineup is different. I much prefer looking at the actual lineup.

    For players I use the last two seasons worth of data as well as the last 2 weeks.

    Hope that helps.

  • Jvanspro

    @DFSx42 said...

    I’m curious how do you go about scraping and compiling this, i’m looking to improve my own efficiency. feel free to pm if you don’t want to post that on the forum

    All of my stats come from custom leaderboards I created on FanGraphs and the lineups come from Baseball Press. I import them all into excel using power query.

    For me, this started as a simple data sheet and really grew organically into a true model over the course of time. I’m happy to answer any questions regarding it.

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