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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    6:30 PM EST : San Francisco ( 1 ) at Kansas City ( -1 ) —- T: 53.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • BIF

    @superjon said...

    Sooo…bet the over?

    That’s what the public thinks as total is now up to 54.5

    It opened offshore at 51.5 and was quickly bet up before the line came out in Vegas

    More ways for this game to go over than under but I kinda feel like it stays under (something like 27-23) – I’m leaning SF in a close game because of a couple KC drives ending in FGs instead of TDs that keep it just under the total.

  • squidkill

    I mean if we keep it simple and not overthink- KC and Over- SF and Under- Possible tease SF +8 Under 60

  • superjon

    @BIF said...

    That’s what the public thinks as total is now up to 54.5

    It opened offshore at 51.5 and was quickly bet up before the line came out in Vegas

    More ways for this game to go over than under but I kinda feel like it stays under (something like 27-23) – I’m leaning SF in a close game because of a couple KC drives ending in FGs instead of TDs that keep it just under the total.

    Not sure what to make of this, but

    SF has had 6 games with a total over 54.5. They were 6-0 in those games. 2 were within a TD

    KC has had 8 games with a total over 54.5. They were 5-3, and 2 were within a TD

  • odanny

    It’s destiny folks. Throw out all the numbers, all the regular season stats, it is destiny that the best player in the league gets his highly regarded coach his first ever Super Bowl ring on the 50th anniversary of the Chiefs last Super Bowl victory.

    Shanahan is a great coach, like Sean McVey is. Both hear coaches will get their rings some day, but not next Sunday.

  • monarch

    @odanny said...

    It’s destiny folks. Throw out all the numbers, all the regular season stats, it is destiny that the best player in the league gets his highly regarded coach his first ever Super Bowl ring on the 50th anniversary of the Chiefs last Super Bowl victory.

    Shanahan is a great coach, like Sean McVey is. Both hear coaches will get their rings some day, but not next Sunday.

    I cant find a way to adjust the destiny setting in my optimizer

  • hobbes2d

    @TopDawgs07 said...

    Personally, I like the Niners in this game. Teams able to put pressure on QBs with just their front 4 have good success against great QBs and offenses. i.e. NY Giants over Pats twice, Denver over Carolina, etc.

    Will DK only run Showdowns for the SB or will we get some Pro Bowl/SB games? In past years, Pro Bowl DSTs are the play. Super cheap and often get a TD in the Pro Bowl.

    And historically great/high powered offenses have typically been slowed/stopped in the Super Bowl. Obviously Pats twice against Giants. Denver vs Carolina. The 83 Redskins were the highest scoring team in league history and the Raiders held them to 9 points. 2013 Denver Broncos were highest scoring team ever with 606 Points scored and Seattle D held them to 8 points. The 1990 Bills team was 1st in the league in scoring with the K Gun Offense and put up 44 and 51 in the divisional and conference playoff games and then got held to 19 pts against the NYG.

    Plenty of other examples of this in league history and we just saw Baltimore lose at home to Tennessee just 2 weeks ago lol.

  • squidkill

    And historically great/high powered offenses have typically been slowed/stopped in the Super Bowl. Obviously Pats twice against Giants. Denver vs Carolina. The 83 Redskins were the highest scoring team in league history and the Raiders held them to 9 points. 2013 Denver Broncos were highest scoring team ever with 606 Points scored and Seattle D held them to 8 points. The 1990 Bills team was 1st in the league in scoring with the K Gun Offense and put up 44 and 51 in the divisional and conference playoff games and then got held to 19 pts against the NYG.

    Plenty of other examples of this in league history and we just saw Baltimore lose at home to Tennessee just 2 weeks ago lol.

    You reference this and fail to mention the GREATEST one in the history of the Super Bowl??? The #1 ever? Greatest show of Turf?
    2001: The Rams were again first in the league in total offense (6,930 yards), completions (379), passing yards (4,903), yards per pass attempt (8.90), passing touchdowns (37), rushing touchdowns (20) and yards per rush attempt (4.87)

    Best defensive game plan and execution in the history of the world.

  • odanny

    @monarch said...

    I cant find a way to adjust the destiny setting in my optimizer

    That’s what makes destiny so great, it is never influenced by analytics.

  • bcandrws

    @BIF said...

    KC has not faced a RB as fast as Mostert either – I saw that his TD on Sunday that he went around the edge and ran in from the 20 or 30 registered the fastest speed of ANY player all season on the Next Gen Stats meter….even faster than Tyreek and Hardman

    The Chiefs handled the zero or one-cut running of Henry but Mostert is a different kind of beast that will test your LBs ability to cover/tackle laterally on the edge and test their angles.

    Phillip lindsay. They both are right around the same as far as speed. Mostert ran a 4.42 lindsay ran a 4.44, given SF offensive line is a lot better than Denver’s but still.

  • bcandrws

    @BIF said...

    …..but Lamar threw for 267 vs Chiefs (and he only ran 8 times for 46)

    Against SF, Lamar had only 105 yards passing and 16 carries for 101 yds rushing

    Both teams did ok vs Lamar but SF shut him down more so they can surely slow Mahomes down – tough to stop of course but the SF D is good when healthy

    Weren’t they pretty healthy against brees?

  • Kamais_Ookin

    Thoughts on mostert over 66.5 rushing yards prop?

  • bcandrws

    @BIF said...

    KC has not faced a RB as fast as Mostert either – I saw that his TD on Sunday that he went around the edge and ran in from the 20 or 30 registered the fastest speed of ANY player all season on the Next Gen Stats meter….even faster than Tyreek and Hardman

    The Chiefs handled the zero or one-cut running of Henry but Mostert is a different kind of beast that will test your LBs ability to cover/tackle laterally on the edge and test their angles.

    According to player profiles Williams and mostert are roughly the same. On the player profiles mostert runs a 4.42 and Williams runs a 4.45 Williams is 222 pounds though and mostert is 186. The chiefs can use William’s to replicate mostert in practice and he is a bigger back than mostert

  • rgreuli

    @odanny said...

    It’s destiny folks. Throw out all the numbers, all the regular season stats, it is destiny that the best player in the league gets his highly regarded coach his first ever Super Bowl ring on the 50th anniversary of the Chiefs last Super Bowl victory.

    Shanahan is a great coach, like Sean McVey is. Both hear coaches will get their rings some day, but not next Sunday.

    I totally agree with this.

  • BIF

    @odanny said...

    the best player in the league

    Isn’t Lamar Jackson the MVP ?

  • BIF

    @Kamais_Ookin said...

    Thoughts on mostert over 66.5 rushing yards prop?

    Is that Over 66.5 on one play ? Or for the game ?

    Never mind Mostert-Over both !

  • BIF

    @bcandrws said...

    Weren’t they pretty healthy against brees?

    Kwon Alexander was out with Torn Bicep, Jacquiski Tartt was out with broken ribs and Dee Ford went down with a Hammy early in the game so no they were not healthy on D

  • Kraigger3

    @bcandrws said...

    According to player profiles Williams and mostert are roughly the same. On the player profiles mostert runs a 4.42 and Williams runs a 4.45 Williams is 222 pounds though and mostert is 186. The chiefs can use William’s to replicate mostert in practice and he is a bigger back than mostert

    Doesn’t hold much water here.
    Just bc 2 backs size up comparably, doesn’t make them easy to replicate in practice.
    A zone blocking scheme (something Shanahan’s are notorious for), isn’t something you just replicate and practice against over 2 weeks.
    Mostert even said, “I had to re-learn everything I was taught.”
    A lot of great backs who make their own space simply won’t work in this system. Everyone has to buy in, and the back has to be IN. Derrick Henry would thrive in SF.
    A lot of better backs in the league than Mostert, but the kid was a track and field star, surfer, and NFL RB. He learned how to run in the zone blocking scheme. You hit the hole, no dancing in the backfield. Hit the open hole and drive the ball.
    I may be the only one here, but I think San Fran wins easily.
    Jeff Wilson- for minimum salary will absolutely be a non-factor. Coleman will play. Even if he doesn’t, Wilson will be ZERO factor.
    Coleman will play. If he doesn’t, Breida is a better play. My cheap play is Hardman, and fading both Hill and Kelce. I’m stacking SF and running Mahomes with Hardman or naked. Paying for either of those 2 jabronis on DK is just silly imho…

  • superjon

    @Kamais_Ookin said...

    Thoughts on mostert over 66.5 rushing yards prop?

    That seems really low for a guy that should be pretty chalky.

    Kind of like Henry’s prop last week that also started off really low.

  • monarch

    Anyone have links to the comparable DK showdown from last year. How many times was it chopped…payout etc?

  • DickyBigtop

    @rourke441 said...

    i ber the 49rs plus 5.5 pts. at -230 i can get them at plus 10.5 pts. giving -400 just might do it

    I found you a lock even better. Empty your moms purse, cash in all 401Ks, sell all possible body fluids, flood the pawn shop.

    FD – either team to score on 1st off play

    No, -20,000

    Call Jazzy and tell him to pop the tops, we rollin’ big in a week.

  • odanny

    @Kamais_Ookin said...

    Thoughts on mostert over 66.5 rushing yards prop?

    Here’s a better prop bet payout: If SF manages to win the game, it will probably be because of a defensive effort, and the leader of that effort could be Bosa.

    Right now he is 3600 to 1 for the MVP.

  • squidkill

  • BIF

    @odanny said...

    Here’s a better prop bet payout: If SF manages to win the game, it will probably be because of a defensive effort, and the leader of that effort could be Bosa.

    Right now he is 3600 to 1 for the MVP.

    Bosa would be +3600 which means 36-1 odds not 3600 to 1

    I don’t +3600 anywhere on my sites now and am seeing +2400 and +2200

  • DickyBigtop

    I’m looking real hard at +1.5 & the under hook for a dime.
    24-21’ish stuck in my head.

    With 2 on the first half tie for +950 as a pure gamble. Juice is worth the small squeeze

  • monarch

    Anyone playing today’s Pro Bowl? Pretty decent contest on DK. I figured there would be an interest in that

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