NFL FORUM

6:30 PM EST : San Francisco ( 1 ) at Kansas City ( -1 ) —- T: 53.5

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That’s what the public thinks as total is now up to 54.5

It opened offshore at 51.5 and was quickly bet up before the line came out in Vegas

More ways for this game to go over than under but I kinda feel like it stays under (something like 27-23) – I’m leaning SF in a close game because of a couple KC drives ending in FGs instead of TDs that keep it just under the total.

I mean if we keep it simple and not overthink- KC and Over- SF and Under- Possible tease SF +8 Under 60

Not sure what to make of this, but

SF has had 6 games with a total over 54.5. They were 6-0 in those games. 2 were within a TD

KC has had 8 games with a total over 54.5. They were 5-3, and 2 were within a TD

It’s destiny folks. Throw out all the numbers, all the regular season stats, it is destiny that the best player in the league gets his highly regarded coach his first ever Super Bowl ring on the 50th anniversary of the Chiefs last Super Bowl victory.

Shanahan is a great coach, like Sean McVey is. Both hear coaches will get their rings some day, but not next Sunday.

I cant find a way to adjust the destiny setting in my optimizer

And historically great/high powered offenses have typically been slowed/stopped in the Super Bowl. Obviously Pats twice against Giants. Denver vs Carolina. The 83 Redskins were the highest scoring team in league history and the Raiders held them to 9 points. 2013 Denver Broncos were highest scoring team ever with 606 Points scored and Seattle D held them to 8 points. The 1990 Bills team was 1st in the league in scoring with the K Gun Offense and put up 44 and 51 in the divisional and conference playoff games and then got held to 19 pts against the NYG.

Plenty of other examples of this in league history and we just saw Baltimore lose at home to Tennessee just 2 weeks ago lol.

And historically great/high powered offenses have typically been slowed/stopped in the Super Bowl. Obviously Pats twice against Giants. Denver vs Carolina. The 83 Redskins were the highest scoring team in league history and the Raiders held them to 9 points. 2013 Denver Broncos were highest scoring team ever with 606 Points scored and Seattle D held them to 8 points. The 1990 Bills team was 1st in the league in scoring with the K Gun Offense and put up 44 and 51 in the divisional and conference playoff games and then got held to 19 pts against the NYG.

Plenty of other examples of this in league history and we just saw Baltimore lose at home to Tennessee just 2 weeks ago lol.

You reference this and fail to mention the GREATEST one in the history of the Super Bowl??? The #1 ever? Greatest show of Turf?
2001: The Rams were again first in the league in total offense (6,930 yards), completions (379), passing yards (4,903), yards per pass attempt (8.90), passing touchdowns (37), rushing touchdowns (20) and yards per rush attempt (4.87)

Best defensive game plan and execution in the history of the world.

That’s what makes destiny so great, it is never influenced by analytics.

Phillip lindsay. They both are right around the same as far as speed. Mostert ran a 4.42 lindsay ran a 4.44, given SF offensive line is a lot better than Denver’s but still.

Weren’t they pretty healthy against brees?

Thoughts on mostert over 66.5 rushing yards prop?

According to player profiles Williams and mostert are roughly the same. On the player profiles mostert runs a 4.42 and Williams runs a 4.45 Williams is 222 pounds though and mostert is 186. The chiefs can use William’s to replicate mostert in practice and he is a bigger back than mostert

I totally agree with this.

Isn’t Lamar Jackson the MVP ?

Is that Over 66.5 on one play ? Or for the game ?

Never mind Mostert-Over both !

Kwon Alexander was out with Torn Bicep, Jacquiski Tartt was out with broken ribs and Dee Ford went down with a Hammy early in the game so no they were not healthy on D

Doesn’t hold much water here.
Just bc 2 backs size up comparably, doesn’t make them easy to replicate in practice.
A zone blocking scheme (something Shanahan’s are notorious for), isn’t something you just replicate and practice against over 2 weeks.
Mostert even said, “I had to re-learn everything I was taught.”
A lot of great backs who make their own space simply won’t work in this system. Everyone has to buy in, and the back has to be IN. Derrick Henry would thrive in SF.
A lot of better backs in the league than Mostert, but the kid was a track and field star, surfer, and NFL RB. He learned how to run in the zone blocking scheme. You hit the hole, no dancing in the backfield. Hit the open hole and drive the ball.
I may be the only one here, but I think San Fran wins easily.
Jeff Wilson- for minimum salary will absolutely be a non-factor. Coleman will play. Even if he doesn’t, Wilson will be ZERO factor.
Coleman will play. If he doesn’t, Breida is a better play. My cheap play is Hardman, and fading both Hill and Kelce. I’m stacking SF and running Mahomes with Hardman or naked. Paying for either of those 2 jabronis on DK is just silly imho…

That seems really low for a guy that should be pretty chalky.

Kind of like Henry’s prop last week that also started off really low.

Anyone have links to the comparable DK showdown from last year. How many times was it chopped…payout etc?

I found you a lock even better. Empty your moms purse, cash in all 401Ks, sell all possible body fluids, flood the pawn shop.

FD – either team to score on 1st off play

No, -20,000

Call Jazzy and tell him to pop the tops, we rollin’ big in a week.

Here’s a better prop bet payout: If SF manages to win the game, it will probably be because of a defensive effort, and the leader of that effort could be Bosa.

Right now he is 3600 to 1 for the MVP.

o

Bosa would be +3600 which means 36-1 odds not 3600 to 1

I don’t +3600 anywhere on my sites now and am seeing +2400 and +2200

I’m looking real hard at +1.5 & the under hook for a dime.
24-21’ish stuck in my head.

With 2 on the first half tie for +950 as a pure gamble. Juice is worth the small squeeze

Anyone playing today’s Pro Bowl? Pretty decent contest on DK. I figured there would be an interest in that