NFL FORUM

6:30 PM EST : San Francisco ( 1 ) at Kansas City ( -1 ) —- T: 53.5

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Nah, I’m not blind, the Chiefs and Mahomes are very good but so are the Niners in my opinion – I’m just playing Devil’s advocate as you and a few others sound like they shouldn’t even play the game and the Chiefs have it in the bag all because of Mahomes.

I like Mahomes as a player but I’m also not naive enough to ignore history where Defensive teams have badly dominated the best Offensive teams In NFL history in Super Bowls. Greatest Show on Turf got beat by Patriots, the Raiders got destroyed by the Bucs (Gannon’s numbers were as good or better than Mahomes), Ravens with no respect QB’s Dilfer and Flacco (like the lack of respect Jimmy G is getting) won Super Bowls, Cam’s Panthers got beat by an old game manager Peyton and a very good Den D. Even the Rams last year got stymied by the Pats. Yes a few offensive teams have won Super Bowls against defensive teams but when one of the Top 3 offenses has faced one of the Top 3 defenses, Defense has ruled.

With two weeks (kinda) to prepare, anything can happen but this game (to me) sets up a lot like the 2003 Super Bowl when the Bucs beat the Raiders – the Bucs had a game manager QB in Brad Johnson, a two-prong running game and a great defense (John Lynch built this team to mimic his Bucs team) against the most prolific offense in the game with an average defense. I think the Chiefs are better coached than those Raiders and have a couple of good splash players on defense. I really think it’ll be a great game but I lean to the Niners.

As of this afternoon:
MGM reports that 68% of the spread tickets and 72% of the money has come in on the Chiefs (yet the game line has not moved up from the -1 or -1.5 that it has been at for over a week). By not moving the line, it means Vegas is happy getting lopsided money bet on the Chiefs….why is that ?

I think they know if they move the line the sharps are gonna hammer sf.

I think Vegas will have no choice to pop the line to 2 or 2.5 as the public money rolls in on Friday/Saturday but then Vegas opens them up to the point-buyers jumping on SF at +3 setting them up to get screwed on a very attainable middle with a KC 2pt win.

A lot more money gets bet this Fri, Sat and Sun combined than in the 10 days before so if similar 70% KC action starts coming in, they’ll have to move the line slightly and risk getting pounded with SF money.

You are correct.

I think they are gonna hold off as long as they can and let the KC money roll in. The will let it get real lopsided and move it on sat. Then the SF money comes in and evens it out.

The middle guys probably already have KC -2.5 and are waiting to get a better price on SF +3.5.

This is true. But I’m making Mahomes my Capt. and looking at a KC win since I don’t see Mahomes being a game manager type, I see KC coming out FAST and trying to take away a SF running game, Make Jimmy throw to beat them. Big points is what I see, but I’ve been wrong before.

Oh no I dont think it’s in the bag because the 49ers defense is ferocious, they have alot of speed at RB too which is the chiefs biggest weakness. I was saying if the front 4 can’t get to mahomes I dont trust jimmy g, but all of thier skilled positions are solid. I actually think manny could have a good game, but I have seen this year deebo and kittle have good games and still jimmy g had a bad game. To me any team can be beat on any given sunday I’m only saying that the way of beating the cheifs they would have to keep mahomes in check. If they need to try to outscore them the 49ers not going to win that game

It’s fun to think the Chiefs will come out fast and maybe they will (who knows) but they have been the exact opposite of a fast starter their last 3 games (which I’d also consider their 3 most important games).

Week 17 in KC against an out of the playoffs Chargers team with a first round bye on the line, the Chiefs only led 10-7 at the Half and were down 7-3 through 27+ minutes.

Divisional playoff vs Houston, down 24-0 in 1st Q

Conference final vs Tenn, down 17-7 in 2nd Q

Agree – SF is like a better Tennessee – they have some definite positional advantages over KC, BUT the Chiefs can score and be downright dangerous when they get in a rhythm so the SF D has to slow and kill their momentum spurts. This game probably plays out like a basketball game where the team with the better spurts (offensively or defensively) wins the game.

What’s the easiest way of finding out if you have unique line up on a showdown slate? Building 150 for this so would be good to know if any have a chance.

I’d like to place a bet that both teams go out there and give it their all and have fun. Where can I go to do that?

This is great info. KC has been a very slow starter in the playoffs, trailing by double digits in both games. You do that with SF, you’ll regret it.

Any thoughts on my previous post about Sherman? How does SF typically use him now?

I went back to the Saints game just looking to see how NO attacked the 49ers. Thomas had a monster game. Cook had a good game. RB’s didn’t do a whole lot though.

He still only stays on one side of the field. Early in the playoff game he took a few snaps early on the wrong side against Adams but then quickly went back to his side the rest of the game

I think he lines up mostly on the left, but the thing is hill moves around alot. Hill plays slot in the slot as well so it’s hard to gauge that

chiefs are going to smoke the niners-they stopped henry and will have no trouble stopping the niners rbs-the addition of guys like Suggs was huge too- the niners are going to find out you cant stop an impossible force aka the chiefs offense-way too much talent there for the niners and too much speed too and they will be playing in warm weather-the niners had trouble with guys that can run at qb-the only hope for SF is KC comes out slowly like the past two weeks but I dont think that happens this week. I think KC comes out hot and smokes them -your MVP will be PM

sherman cant cover hill nobody can and the chiefs have too many weapons

A lot of talk about the Chiefs speed, but the Niners RBs lead the league in collective speed too. The Chiefs were able to slow down Henry but he is typically a downhill runner, totally different from the Niners. SF has the speed to run east -> west and open up holes in the defense, you can’t really stack the box against them to slow them down.

Shanahan is a scheme God and that will be the difference in the game.

Yea, he is. If they can’t run down the throat of KC because of Suggs, they will run some screen passes and let Mostert outrun the defense. Or they will run east/west like I mentioned before and open up holes in the defensive line to run downfield.

Also the Niners defense was on par or better than the Patriots in terms of numbers and they were able to limit KC to 23 points. If the Niners can keep KC in that 20-23 range, they have a very good chance of winning. Even if they are forced to get into a shootout, the Niners should have no trouble moving the ball downfield and getting scoring opportunities.

Suggs is playing +/- 50% of the defensive snaps in KC, and mostly in passing downs.

Not so sure he’s going to be heavily involved in stopping the early down rushing attack of SF.

Once the contest starts, export all the entries and see if yours matches.

Collectively yes but Williams and mostert are about the same in regards to speed.

The best thing they do is the run blocking

There’s way too many entries in this SB showdown contest and not enough total players that are feasible that unless you absolutely go with a guy who will get like 0 snaps or leave like 4k+ salary on the table, you are most likely going to have a dupe. Even if you leave 4k+, you still might get a dupe.

The Patriots secondary was better. The 49ers front 4 is better so difference there