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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    6:30 PM EST : San Francisco ( 1 ) at Kansas City ( -1 ) —- T: 53.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • BIF

    @bcandrws said...

    so you saying jimmy g won these last 2 playoffs games, because patrick mahomes absolutely won thiers. i think you are really discrediting mahomes alot by comparing him to both jimmy g and lamar. Do you not like mahomes or something?

    Nah, I’m not blind, the Chiefs and Mahomes are very good but so are the Niners in my opinion – I’m just playing Devil’s advocate as you and a few others sound like they shouldn’t even play the game and the Chiefs have it in the bag all because of Mahomes.

    I like Mahomes as a player but I’m also not naive enough to ignore history where Defensive teams have badly dominated the best Offensive teams In NFL history in Super Bowls. Greatest Show on Turf got beat by Patriots, the Raiders got destroyed by the Bucs (Gannon’s numbers were as good or better than Mahomes), Ravens with no respect QB’s Dilfer and Flacco (like the lack of respect Jimmy G is getting) won Super Bowls, Cam’s Panthers got beat by an old game manager Peyton and a very good Den D. Even the Rams last year got stymied by the Pats. Yes a few offensive teams have won Super Bowls against defensive teams but when one of the Top 3 offenses has faced one of the Top 3 defenses, Defense has ruled.

    With two weeks (kinda) to prepare, anything can happen but this game (to me) sets up a lot like the 2003 Super Bowl when the Bucs beat the Raiders – the Bucs had a game manager QB in Brad Johnson, a two-prong running game and a great defense (John Lynch built this team to mimic his Bucs team) against the most prolific offense in the game with an average defense. I think the Chiefs are better coached than those Raiders and have a couple of good splash players on defense. I really think it’ll be a great game but I lean to the Niners.

    As of this afternoon:
    MGM reports that 68% of the spread tickets and 72% of the money has come in on the Chiefs (yet the game line has not moved up from the -1 or -1.5 that it has been at for over a week). By not moving the line, it means Vegas is happy getting lopsided money bet on the Chiefs….why is that ?

  • keephustlincuz

    @BIF said...

    By not moving the line, it means Vegas is happy getting lopsided money bet on the Chiefs….why is that ?

    I think they know if they move the line the sharps are gonna hammer sf.

  • BIF

    @keephustlincuz said...

    I think they know if they move the line the sharps are gonna hammer sf.

    I think Vegas will have no choice to pop the line to 2 or 2.5 as the public money rolls in on Friday/Saturday but then Vegas opens them up to the point-buyers jumping on SF at +3 setting them up to get screwed on a very attainable middle with a KC 2pt win.

    A lot more money gets bet this Fri, Sat and Sun combined than in the 10 days before so if similar 70% KC action starts coming in, they’ll have to move the line slightly and risk getting pounded with SF money.

  • keephustlincuz

    @BIF said...

    I think Vegas will have no choice to pop the line to 2 or 2.5 as the public money rolls in on Friday/Saturday but then Vegas opens them up to the point-buyers jumping on SF at +3 setting them up to get screwed on a very attainable middle with a KC 2pt win.

    You are correct.

    I think they are gonna hold off as long as they can and let the KC money roll in. The will let it get real lopsided and move it on sat. Then the SF money comes in and evens it out.

    The middle guys probably already have KC -2.5 and are waiting to get a better price on SF +3.5.

  • joephoto

    @BIF said...

    not naive enough to ignore history where Defensive teams have badly dominated the best Offensive teams In NFL history in Super Bowls

    This is true. But I’m making Mahomes my Capt. and looking at a KC win since I don’t see Mahomes being a game manager type, I see KC coming out FAST and trying to take away a SF running game, Make Jimmy throw to beat them. Big points is what I see, but I’ve been wrong before.

  • bcandrws

    @BIF said...

    Nah, I’m not blind, the Chiefs and Mahomes are very good but so are the Niners in my opinion – I’m just playing Devil’s advocate as you and a few others sound like they shouldn’t even play the game and the Chiefs have it in the bag all because of Mahomes.

    I like Mahomes as a player but I’m also not naive enough to ignore history where Defensive teams have badly dominated the best Offensive teams In NFL history in Super Bowls. Greatest Show on Turf got beat by Patriots, the Raiders got destroyed by the Bucs (Gannon’s numbers were as good or better than Mahomes), Ravens with no respect QB’s Dilfer and Flacco (like the lack of respect Jimmy G is getting) won Super Bowls, Cam’s Panthers got beat by an old game manager Peyton and a very good Den D. Even the Rams last year got stymied by the Pats. Yes a few offensive teams have won Super Bowls against defensive teams but when one of the Top 3 offenses has faced one of the Top 3 defenses, Defense has ruled.

    With two weeks (kinda) to prepare, anything can happen but this game (to me) sets up a lot like the 2003 Super Bowl when the Bucs beat the Raiders – the Bucs had a game manager QB in Brad Johnson, a two-prong running game and a great defense (John Lynch built this team to mimic his Bucs team) against the most prolific offense in the game with an average defense. I think the Chiefs are better coached than those Raiders and have a couple of good splash players on defense. I really think it’ll be a great game but I lean to the Niners.

    As of this afternoon:
    MGM reports that 68% of the spread tickets and 72% of the money has come in on the Chiefs (yet the game line has not moved up from the -1 or -1.5 that it has been at for over a week). By not moving the line, it means Vegas is happy getting lopsided money bet on the Chiefs….why is that ?

    Oh no I dont think it’s in the bag because the 49ers defense is ferocious, they have alot of speed at RB too which is the chiefs biggest weakness. I was saying if the front 4 can’t get to mahomes I dont trust jimmy g, but all of thier skilled positions are solid. I actually think manny could have a good game, but I have seen this year deebo and kittle have good games and still jimmy g had a bad game. To me any team can be beat on any given sunday I’m only saying that the way of beating the cheifs they would have to keep mahomes in check. If they need to try to outscore them the 49ers not going to win that game

  • BIF

    @joephoto said...

    This is true. But I’m making Mahomes my Capt. and looking at a KC win since I don’t see Mahomes being a game manager type, I see KC coming out FAST and trying to take away a SF running game, Make Jimmy throw to beat them. Big points is what I see, but I’ve been wrong before.

    It’s fun to think the Chiefs will come out fast and maybe they will (who knows) but they have been the exact opposite of a fast starter their last 3 games (which I’d also consider their 3 most important games).

    Week 17 in KC against an out of the playoffs Chargers team with a first round bye on the line, the Chiefs only led 10-7 at the Half and were down 7-3 through 27+ minutes.

    Divisional playoff vs Houston, down 24-0 in 1st Q

    Conference final vs Tenn, down 17-7 in 2nd Q

  • BIF

    @bcandrws said...

    Oh no I dont think it’s in the bag because the 49ers defense is ferocious, they have alot of speed at RB too which is the chiefs biggest weakness. I was saying if the front 4 can’t get to mahomes I dont trust jimmy g, but all of thier skilled positions are solid. I actually think manny could have a good game, but I have seen this year deebo and kittle have good games and still jimmy g had a bad game. To me any team can be beat on any given sunday I’m only saying that the way of beating the cheifs they would have to keep mahomes in check. If they need to try to outscore them the 49ers not going to win that game

    Agree – SF is like a better Tennessee – they have some definite positional advantages over KC, BUT the Chiefs can score and be downright dangerous when they get in a rhythm so the SF D has to slow and kill their momentum spurts. This game probably plays out like a basketball game where the team with the better spurts (offensively or defensively) wins the game.

  • Ando37

    What’s the easiest way of finding out if you have unique line up on a showdown slate? Building 150 for this so would be good to know if any have a chance.

  • clrockny24

    I’d like to place a bet that both teams go out there and give it their all and have fun. Where can I go to do that?

  • TopDawgs07

    @BIF said...

    It’s fun to think the Chiefs will come out fast and maybe they will (who knows) but they have been the exact opposite of a fast starter their last 3 games (which I’d also consider their 3 most important games).

    Week 17 in KC against an out of the playoffs Chargers team with a first round bye on the line, the Chiefs only led 10-7 at the Half and were down 7-3 through 27+ minutes.

    Divisional playoff vs Houston, down 24-0 in 1st Q

    Conference final vs Tenn, down 17-7 in 2nd Q

    This is great info. KC has been a very slow starter in the playoffs, trailing by double digits in both games. You do that with SF, you’ll regret it.

  • TopDawgs07

    @TopDawgs07 said...

    I have a match up question with Sherman. Will we see SF play more zone in the Super Bowl vs. Man coverage? With the speed of KC’s WR’s, I’m assuming we might see more zone or at least more Cover 2 to prevent SF from getting beat deep. If SF does use Man Coverage, who will Sherman cover? Will he stick to one side of the field or travel with either Hill or Watkins? I guess my thinking is that if Hill sees more of Sherman, Watkins could have some real value in this game at his price.

    Another WR that I expect to see a decent workload is Samuel for SF. Shannahan likes to get him the ball and with the two week break, I could see him getting rushing yards as well as WR yards, more creative yards.

    Any thoughts on my previous post about Sherman? How does SF typically use him now?

    I went back to the Saints game just looking to see how NO attacked the 49ers. Thomas had a monster game. Cook had a good game. RB’s didn’t do a whole lot though.

  • Dunzor

    @TopDawgs07 said...

    Any thoughts on my previous post about Sherman? How does SF typically use him now?

    I went back to the Saints game just looking to see how NO attacked the 49ers. Thomas had a monster game. Cook had a good game. RB’s didn’t do a whole lot though.

    He still only stays on one side of the field. Early in the playoff game he took a few snaps early on the wrong side against Adams but then quickly went back to his side the rest of the game

  • bcandrws

    @TopDawgs07 said...

    Any thoughts on my previous post about Sherman? How does SF typically use him now?

    I went back to the Saints game just looking to see how NO attacked the 49ers. Thomas had a monster game. Cook had a good game. RB’s didn’t do a whole lot though.

    I think he lines up mostly on the left, but the thing is hill moves around alot. Hill plays slot in the slot as well so it’s hard to gauge that

  • emnj69

    chiefs are going to smoke the niners-they stopped henry and will have no trouble stopping the niners rbs-the addition of guys like Suggs was huge too- the niners are going to find out you cant stop an impossible force aka the chiefs offense-way too much talent there for the niners and too much speed too and they will be playing in warm weather-the niners had trouble with guys that can run at qb-the only hope for SF is KC comes out slowly like the past two weeks but I dont think that happens this week. I think KC comes out hot and smokes them -your MVP will be PM

  • emnj69

    @bcandrws said...

    I think he lines up mostly on the left, but the thing is hill moves around alot. Hill plays slot in the slot as well so it’s hard to gauge that

    sherman cant cover hill nobody can and the chiefs have too many weapons

  • JSteele

    A lot of talk about the Chiefs speed, but the Niners RBs lead the league in collective speed too. The Chiefs were able to slow down Henry but he is typically a downhill runner, totally different from the Niners. SF has the speed to run east -> west and open up holes in the defense, you can’t really stack the box against them to slow them down.

  • hobbes2d

    @JSteele said...

    They have not needed Jimmy G to win the last two playoff games, but when they need him to throw 40 times this year he has won.

    It’s sort of a misconception that the 49ers are a run first team like the Titans. They just haven’t needed to throw the ball because they had a healthy lead the whole game. When the Titans were down big against the Chiefs they couldn’t do anything in the air.

    When they beat the Cardinals, Jimmy G through 45 times and threw 4 TDs
    When they beat the Saints, Jimmy G through 35 times and 4 TDs
    When they beat the Cardinals again, Jimmy G through 37 times and 4 TDs

    So i’ts not like he can’t throw to win games, it’s just that they haven’t needed to.

    Kyle Shanahan won the last 2 games, and he won them by running the ball, but if he needs to call more passing plays against the Chiefs he will.

    Shanahan is a scheme God and that will be the difference in the game.

  • JSteele

    @hobbes2d said...

    Shanahan is a scheme God and that will be the difference in the game.

    Yea, he is. If they can’t run down the throat of KC because of Suggs, they will run some screen passes and let Mostert outrun the defense. Or they will run east/west like I mentioned before and open up holes in the defensive line to run downfield.

    Also the Niners defense was on par or better than the Patriots in terms of numbers and they were able to limit KC to 23 points. If the Niners can keep KC in that 20-23 range, they have a very good chance of winning. Even if they are forced to get into a shootout, the Niners should have no trouble moving the ball downfield and getting scoring opportunities.

  • realphipps

    Suggs is playing +/- 50% of the defensive snaps in KC, and mostly in passing downs.

    Not so sure he’s going to be heavily involved in stopping the early down rushing attack of SF.

  • JSteele

    @Ando37 said...

    What’s the easiest way of finding out if you have unique line up on a showdown slate? Building 150 for this so would be good to know if any have a chance.

    Once the contest starts, export all the entries and see if yours matches.

  • bcandrws

    @JSteele said...

    A lot of talk about the Chiefs speed, but the Niners RBs lead the league in collective speed too. The Chiefs were able to slow down Henry but he is typically a downhill runner, totally different from the Niners. SF has the speed to run east -> west and open up holes in the defense, you can’t really stack the box against them to slow them down.

    Collectively yes but Williams and mostert are about the same in regards to speed.

  • bcandrws

    @JSteele said...

    A lot of talk about the Chiefs speed, but the Niners RBs lead the league in collective speed too. The Chiefs were able to slow down Henry but he is typically a downhill runner, totally different from the Niners. SF has the speed to run east -> west and open up holes in the defense, you can’t really stack the box against them to slow them down.

    The best thing they do is the run blocking

  • superstars92

    • 213

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #34

      RG Tiered Ranking

    There’s way too many entries in this SB showdown contest and not enough total players that are feasible that unless you absolutely go with a guy who will get like 0 snaps or leave like 4k+ salary on the table, you are most likely going to have a dupe. Even if you leave 4k+, you still might get a dupe.

  • bcandrws

    @JSteele said...

    Yea, he is. If they can’t run down the throat of KC because of Suggs, they will run some screen passes and let Mostert outrun the defense. Or they will run east/west like I mentioned before and open up holes in the defensive line to run downfield.

    Also the Niners defense was on par or better than the Patriots in terms of numbers and they were able to limit KC to 23 points. If the Niners can keep KC in that 20-23 range, they have a very good chance of winning. Even if they are forced to get into a shootout, the Niners should have no trouble moving the ball downfield and getting scoring opportunities.

    The Patriots secondary was better. The 49ers front 4 is better so difference there

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