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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Saturday, 1/12
    4:35 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 6 ) at Kansas City ( -6 ) —- T: 57
    8:15 PM EST : Dallas ( 7 ) at LA Rams ( -7 ) —- T: 49

    Sunday, 1/13
    1:05 PM EST : LA Chargers ( 4.5 ) at New England ( -4.5 ) —- T: 47
    4:40 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 10 ) at New Orleans ( -10 ) —- T: 51

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @mike42 said...

    Devlin has some sleeper appeal

    The ultimate TD vuluture the end of the year!!!

    But on a serious note, regardless of what you think with the NE backs it always seems to go the other way (except a few times with Michel getting the bulk). It’s impossible for me to “trust” any NE backs but I give White the edge because of playoff history (and maybe that’s not the best determinant but it’s what I prefer to go on). If I get beat by it I get beat. And for whatever reason I don’t think it’s going to be easy to run on the Chargers even with them shorthanded. I have a little more confidence in their safeties.

  • mike42

    @infantryboys said...

    Remember what we were saying last week about teams playing their studs in the playoffs?

    Yup, but it’s also about matchups so I knew Tate was in play yesterday because slot WR vs Bears was an angle. RB’s Vs KC and SD is an angle. He’s not a lock because of unknowns, but he’s a tough full fade because of game script cooperates he has the best matchup Vs KC’s awful pass coverage LB’s. As of now, given the spread and projected game script, think there is a 1 in 3 shot he smashes unless we figure out Reich is going to use Mack as more of a bell cow role. I’m pretty sure Indy stayed out of even getting to third down for a lot of that game. They just straight up dominated early.

  • infantryboys

    @mike42 said...

    Yup, but it’s also about matchups so I knew Tate was in play yesterday because slot WR vs Bears was an angle. RB’s Vs KC and SD is an angle. He’s not a lock because of unknowns, but he’s a tough full fade because of game script cooperates he has the best matchup Vs KC’s awful pass coverage LB’s. As of now, given the spread and projected game script, think there is a 1 in 3 shot he smashes unless we figure out Reich is going to use Mack as more of a bell cow role. I’m pretty sure Indy stayed out of even getting to third down for a lot of that game. They just straight up dominated early.

    I’m not saying you can’t play Hines in GPPs, I’m just not going to fade Mack. He has seen 3 targets in each of the last 3 games as well. While that’s not exactly Kamara or CMC, it means he’s not a complete non-entity in the passing game, either. I think they want to ride him and their defense is good enough that I think the Colts can keep it close enough for Mack to pay off.

  • mike42

    @hautalak said...

    The ultimate TD vuluture the end of the year!!!

    But on a serious note, regardless of what you think with the NE backs it always seems to go the other way (except a few times with Michel getting the bulk). It’s impossible for me to “trust” any NE backs but I give White the edge because of playoff history (and maybe that’s not the best determinant but it’s what I prefer to go on). If I get beat by it I get beat. And for whatever reason I don’t think it’s going to be easy to run on the Chargers even with them shorthanded. I have a little more confidence in their safeties.

    I think I’m taking SD in this game but I also think SD running it’s dime package successfully Vs a nervous rookie QB is giving you false confidence on how it will work Vs NE. BB can always surprise you but the matchup SCREAMS use the power run game and that’s what NE does best. I think the odds are pretty solid NE does to SD what Balt was supposed to do, run all day.
    He’s just too cheap at 4700 but so is everyone on this slate. He probably gets Zeke like carries with Zeke like TD equity. Tough thing to look past.

  • QuietStormClay

    When the #LaRams played the #DallasCowboys last year, Aaron Donald almost always lined up AWAY from Zack Martin. Saw this on Twitter from @andy_benoit

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @mike42 said...

    He’s just too cheap at 4700 but so is everyone on this slate. He probably gets Zeke like carries with Zeke like TD equity. Tough thing to look past.

    Hadn’t got to looking at pricing yet… but yes that is appealing and I will surely have shares, just not sure I’d put him near the top. I think he has a bit lower of a floor than you think personally. I whole heartedly agree on your WR perception of them although I might try and sneak a Hogan (sigh!) and maybe even Patterson in somewhere. Definitely more lineups than last week though that’s for sure.

  • mike42

    @infantryboys said...

    I’m not saying you can’t play Hines in GPPs, I’m just not going to fade Mack. He has seen 3 targets in each of the last 3 games as well. While that’s not exactly Kamara or CMC, it means he’s not a complete non-entity in the passing game, either. I think they want to ride him and their defense is good enough that I think the Colts can keep it close enough for Mack to pay off.

    I’d guess that Mack is heavy chalk this week, probably the highest owned guy on the slate possibly by a decent margin. After the whole Zeke argument last week, I ended up locking him in pretty much. At least this week we have a lot of options and we know a bunch should smash, I got a “feeling” he doesn’t break the slate again (become a must) but he checks most boxes outside of road dog.

  • mike42

    @hautalak said...

    Hadn’t got to looking at pricing yet… but yes that is appealing and I will surely have shares, just not sure I’d put him near the top. I think he has a bit lower of a floor than you think personally. I whole heartedly agree on your WR perception of them although I might try and sneak a Hogan (sigh!) and maybe even Patterson in somewhere. Definitely more lineups than last week though that’s for sure.

    His floor is less than a 100 yds, no TD’s and no PPR points. It’s less then 10. His ceiling is 30, 125-150 yds and 2 TD’s. The setup leaves the door open for a ceiling game.

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @mike42 said...

    His floor is less than a 100 yds, no TD’s and no PPR points. It’s less then 10. His ceiling is 30, 125-150 yds and 2 TD’s. The setup leaves the door open for a ceiling game.

    That’s a wide margin for me! At the same time for 4.7K it seems like an ok bet. This one is going to give me headaches!!!

  • mike42

    Kelce, who coincidentally is the only star player not on the playoff discount rack, is a super tough fade. Indy limits big plays (hill) and is susceptible to TE’s.

    We should almost stop talking about star players this week in good spots at a good price and try to find the 3-4K players that will allow you to squeeze as many studs as possible in.

  • kdsdawg

    I could see Sony with 120 yds rushing and after taking them down the field Brady throws it in or Burkhead Devlin or White run it in and he gets 15 DK point out of that..which is fine for $4700. Wildcard weekend that could have won you a GPP but I don’t it will this week with match-ups coming up. Sony is good for cash for sure.

  • kdsdawg

    under $4000 players that are usable??
    RB- Hines
    WR- Gallup, Rogers, Beasley, Patterson
    if for some reason you are playing IND defense, Paschal was this close to breaking a return twice
    early forecast for New England is 28 degrees and snowing. Has Sony got used to that yet? Born in Orlando and played at Georgia.

  • AVivier

    Ginn seems like one of the better cheap plays at 4400. High implied total at home in the dome and matches up well with Phillys weakness. He’ll pbly become chalky by the weekend.

  • squidkill

    2 underdogs who will win str8 up this week are?

  • joephoto

    @mike42 said...

    I didn’t know he played 9 snaps, felt like 0.

    I only saw Hines a couple of times.
    Had him all my 2 game and 4 game lineups.
    Can’t believe I cashed at all with his 0 pts.
    Luckily I had A. Robinson and Chargers D..

  • infantryboys

    @squidkill said...

    2 underdogs who will win str8 up this week are?

    I like Indy a lot this week. The way you beat Indy is by dinking and dunking down the field, and that isn’t who the Chiefs are. Also, let’s face it, their recent playoff play hasn’t exactly been great and they’re 3-3 over their last 6 games.

    After that, I’m liking the home favorite, although I think SD does have a puncher’s chance against the 41 y.o. GOAT and I’m a Cowboys fan, so I can always hope.

  • mike42

    @infantryboys said...

    I like Indy a lot this week. The way you beat Indy is by dinking and dunking down the field, and that isn’t who the Chiefs are. Also, let’s face it, their recent playoff play hasn’t exactly been great and they’re 3-3 over their last 6 games.

    After that, I’m liking the home favorite, although I think SD does have a puncher’s chance against the 41 y.o. GOAT and I’m a Cowboys fan, so I can always hope.

    You know I underdogs have gone 8-0 last 2 years in the WC round? I think Dal has a very real shot to win. Better D, crowd won’t be much of a factor at all since 1/4 to a 1/3 will be Dal fans. I just think Gurley/Goff are soft and Dal isn’t scared at all, moment doesn’t appear to big for them.

    I like SD to play this one really tight too. They seem ready but you just hope that they/Rivers doesn’t blow it in the 4th. They made yesterday a game and I’m not convinced they finish if they are up for most of the game.

    Indy for sure too. Think KC comes out strong but this is just an awful matchup for them. Indy keeps everything in front of them, they limit the big play. If Mahommes forces the issue, he may get them in trouble. Also, been saying it for 1/2 the year, Luck is a top 5 NFL qb. His stats look comparable to Mahommes and if Indy’s D sucked as bad as KC’s, Luck would have thrown for 50 TD’s with less talent at the skill positions.

    I told you guys to bet Indy when they were 20-1 to win AFC, now they are 5-1. My only futures call of the year, think Indy has a legit shot to win AFC. They lack high level talent in some spots, but Luck is kind of like Brady in that he can make the Inman’s and Ebrons of the world look really good.

  • DC2380

    @mike42 said...

    Yup, but it’s also about matchups so I knew Tate was in play yesterday because slot WR vs Bears was an angle. RB’s Vs KC and SD is an angle. He’s not a lock because of unknowns, but he’s a tough full fade because of game script cooperates he has the best matchup Vs KC’s awful pass coverage LB’s. As of now, given the spread and projected game script, think there is a 1 in 3 shot he smashes unless we figure out Reich is going to use Mack as more of a bell cow role. I’m pretty sure Indy stayed out of even getting to third down for a lot of that game. They just straight up dominated early.

    So you don’t think he will be chalky?

  • Brian7479

    @hautalak said...

    Honestly don’t care about pricing because I know I can actually get some offense places. The hard part is going to be keeping up with all the points, yardage, and receptions.

    Probably locking in Luck, Mack, and Gurley right now and trying to fit in from there. I’m hoping this ends as a fun week. Because wild card week underwhelmed in the scoring department but did provide some drama so I’ll take it I suppose.

    Isn’t DFS all about points, yardage and Receptions? What did you mean?

  • Gtzerphy

    @QuietStormClay said...

    All the Foles and Eagles defense..I feel a deja vue of when Vikings was favored by 13 last year at home vs Philadelphia

    I like how you think

  • AVivier

    Colts actually had more 3rd downs than the Texans (14 vs 13). That game was the first game the Colts OL were all healthy since September, and it showed. As of now, I think you eat the chalk and just take their stud RB and don’t get cute. With Zeke and Gurley on the same slate, it remains to be seen just how chalky Mack will even be.

  • Brian7479

    @hautalak said...

    I never mind me some James White come Pats playoff time.

    Looks like this week we are going to have to make some tough decisions. Tough decisions and more lineups!!!

    I was surprised when I looked at it but James White only had 1 good playoff game and that was in the Super Bowl 2 years ago. I swore he had atleast 1 more

  • mike42

    @AVivier said...

    Colts actually had more 3rd downs than the Texans (14 vs 13). That game was the first game the Colts OL were all healthy since September, and it showed. As of now, I think you eat the chalk and just take their stud RB and don’t get cute. With Zeke and Gurley on the same slate, it remains to be seen just how chalky Mack will even be.

    Didn’t the announcers say something in the second qtr that Indy hadn’t had a third down yet? Those are game stats and the second 1/2 was a different story, could have sworn they avoided third downs to a large extent in the first half and didn’t have hardly any second or third and longs. Does that ring a bell to anyone?

  • mike42

    I can save you the suspense, the guy who broke the slate as a low owned play Vs a top 3 run D and got priced down is now playing a bottom 3 run D will be VERY chalky. Gurley will be the one who gets passed on and ends up 25% or so. Dal run D is legit and coach already said CJ will get touches. I’m guessing Zeke at 55-60ish and Mack in that range, if not higher. Your right, that O-line may be the best in football right now and it’s not a secret. On paper, Mack is the best point per dollar play on the board and most of the field knows it. The question isn’t the play itself, it’s more game theory and opportunity cost.

    DK ruined the slate by pricing down every body. Mack should be 7k and Zeke 9k but everyone is underpriced except for Kelce and he’s still a good value in this matchup.

  • AVivier

    @mike42 said...

    Didn’t the announcers say something in the second qtr that Indy hadn’t had a third down yet? Those are game stats and the second 1/2 was a different story, could have sworn they avoided third downs to a large extent in the first half and didn’t have hardly any second or third and longs. Does that ring a bell to anyone?

    Colts went 6-6 on 3rd down in the first half.

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