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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Saturday, 1/12
    4:35 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 6 ) at Kansas City ( -6 ) —- T: 57
    8:15 PM EST : Dallas ( 7 ) at LA Rams ( -7 ) —- T: 49

    Sunday, 1/13
    1:05 PM EST : LA Chargers ( 4.5 ) at New England ( -4.5 ) —- T: 47
    4:40 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 10 ) at New Orleans ( -10 ) —- T: 51

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • mike42

    @AVivier said...

    Colts went 6-6 on 3rd down in the first half.

    I stand corrected. There were some 2nd and third and longs mixed in too.

  • Brian7479

    @mike42 said...

    I can save you the suspense, the guy who broke the slate as a low owned play Vs a top 3 run D and got priced down is now playing a bottom 3 run D will be VERY chalky. Gurley will be the one who gets passed on and ends up 25% or so. Dal run D is legit and coach already said CJ will get touches. I’m guessing Zeke at 55-60ish and Mack in that range, if not higher. Your right, that O-line may be the best in football right now and it’s not a secret. On paper, Mack is the best point per dollar play on the board and most of the field knows it. The question isn’t the play itself, it’s more game theory and opportunity cost.

    DK ruined the slate by pricing down every body. Mack should be 7k and Zeke 9k but everyone is underpriced except for Kelce and he’s still a good value in this matchup.

    Why do you think Zeke and Mack will be that high owned? I didn’t play last week so I don’t know but someone said Zeke was 54% in their gpp and that was a slate with a lot less “studs”. This slate you have Gurley as a 7 point home favorite, Kamara is only 7300, Gordon is only 6200 and you have a bunch of other RB’s below Mack that are in play. I know everyone being priced down makes it easier to fit the studs but with 15 studs on the slate not counting the QB’s obviously I don’t see anybody approaching 55% ownership

  • Stixwiz

    @mike42 said...

    Didn’t the announcers say something in the second qtr that Indy hadn’t had a third down yet? Those are game stats and the second 1/2 was a different story, could have sworn they avoided third downs to a large extent in the first half and didn’t have hardly any second or third and longs. Does that ring a bell to anyone?

    The announcers were referring to the fact that the Colts didn’t have their first 3 and out until 7 Minutes into the 3rd quarter. Andrew Luck and that O-line are an absolute juggernaut! Can’t wait to see them battle KC.

  • JH822547

    I’m going to expose my ignorance here I’m sure, but how do I reconcile what you are saying with the Chargers stopping the Baltimore running game?

  • Brian7479

    Does anybody here follow the officials for games? Like such and such official crews the games they’ve reffed have gone over the total 7 out of 10 times. I know some people do and it may be helpful for dfs

  • jtkucheck

    Who is this week’s Coutee?

    I’m gonna go with Tre’Quan Smith. Been a baller when palying at home, including against these Eagles (10/157/1).

  • squidkill

    @Brian7479 said...

    Does anybody here follow the officials for games? Like such and such official crews the games they’ve reffed have gone over the total 7 out of 10 times. I know some people do and it may be helpful for dfs

    Patriot haters do. They always seem to know the ones who are supposedly “patriot lovers”.

  • AVivier

    @jtkucheck said...

    Who is this week’s Coutee?

    I’m gonna go with Tre’Quan Smith. Been a baller when palying at home, including against these Eagles (10/157/1).

    I like Smith some too, but keep in mind he’s behind Ginn now and Ginn didn’t play that game. I think he’ll still get enough snaps to be in play, but he’s not a gimme.

  • jtkucheck

    @AVivier said...

    I like Smith some too, but keep in mind he’s behind Ginn now and Ginn didn’t play that game. I think he’ll still get enough snaps to be in play, but he’s not a gimme.

    Ginn. Ugh.

    Ok I’ll open the question back up…

  • infantryboys

    @mike42 said...

    You know I underdogs have gone 8-0 last 2 years in the WC round? I think Dal has a very real shot to win. Better D, crowd won’t be much of a factor at all since 1/4 to a 1/3 will be Dal fans. I just think Gurley/Goff are soft and Dal isn’t scared at all, moment doesn’t appear to big for them.

    I like SD to play this one really tight too. They seem ready but you just hope that they/Rivers doesn’t blow it in the 4th. They made yesterday a game and I’m not convinced they finish if they are up for most of the game.

    Indy for sure too. Think KC comes out strong but this is just an awful matchup for them. Indy keeps everything in front of them, they limit the big play. If Mahommes forces the issue, he may get them in trouble. Also, been saying it for 1/2 the year, Luck is a top 5 NFL qb. His stats look comparable to Mahommes and if Indy’s D sucked as bad as KC’s, Luck would have thrown for 50 TD’s with less talent at the skill positions.

    I told you guys to bet Indy when they were 20-1 to win AFC, now they are 5-1. My only futures call of the year, think Indy has a legit shot to win AFC. They lack high level talent in some spots, but Luck is kind of like Brady in that he can make the Inman’s and Ebrons of the world look really good.

    This is more of a feeling than anything, but I don’t think Gurley’s knee is right. I remember when Bo Jackson destroyed his hip and Oakland tried to play it off as week to week so their playoff opponents would keep game planning for it. This reminds me of that. I don’t think its as serious and I think he plays, but I don’t think he’s right.

  • keephustlincuz

    @jtkucheck said...

    Ginn. Ugh.

    Ok I’ll open the question back up…

    Ginn is min priced on FD. I have to have some of that. They played him one game to make sure he was ok and then sat him so he wouldn’t get hurt.

  • mike42

    @JH822547 said...

    I’m going to expose my ignorance here I’m sure, but how do I reconcile what you are saying with the Chargers stopping the Baltimore running game?

    They faced the run game 2x in 3 weeks, Balt has no pass game and Balt’s O was almost gimmicky. NE has more of a power run game, a better O-line and a QB who is the best playoff qb in history. In theory, playing 6 DB’s against an O like NE’s is a poor matchup. I’m rooting for SD but on paper NE should have a lot of success running it right at them and Sony “should” have a big day.

  • mike42

    @Brian7479 said...

    Why do you think Zeke and Mack will be that high owned? I didn’t play last week so I don’t know but someone said Zeke was 54% in their gpp and that was a slate with a lot less “studs”. This slate you have Gurley as a 7 point home favorite, Kamara is only 7300, Gordon is only 6200 and you have a bunch of other RB’s below Mack that are in play. I know everyone being priced down makes it easier to fit the studs but with 15 studs on the slate not counting the QB’s obviously I don’t see anybody approaching 55% ownership

    You are probably right, different week and I was thinking last weeks numbers. Zeke was like 60-68% in the contests I remember being in and I was surprised that Nuk was higher than that. I thought Zeke would be higher, they had him at 77.5% in projections. Mack was 8%. Maybe more like 40-50 for Zeke/Mack this week and maybe 1/2 that for Gurley. No clue about a Kamara.

  • BIF

    @808state said...

    Why does the league always make the LAC play the early east coast game?

    Because Rivers likes to go straight from Church to the Stadium.

  • AVivier

    @BIF said...

    Because Rivers likes to go straight from Church to the Stadium.

    That dude lives by the 3 F’s. Faith, football and making babies.

  • BIF

    @mike42 said...

    The Vikings were favored by 3 @ Philly. I can’t believe we got to spend a week listening to the team of destiny crap because we missed a FG by an inch. You guys should give NO’s a better fight then last time because you couldn’t play any worse but Philly isn’t going anywhere this year. Last year you didn’t get lucky, you won games.

    I wish Nagy would have tested you guys deep early and often, like I thought they would. You played tight coverage and it would have changed the whole game. Deep passing game would have opened up everything and it was there to be had. Philly’s weakness is always big plays in the passing game. I wish you guys would have straight up beat us instead of what happened, be easier to swallow. Or I wish Nagy would have just let Min win so none of this would have happened.

    We must have watched a different game – I watched an Eagles team convert 3 red zone trips into 2 TDs while the Bears had Zero TDs when they got inside the Eagles 20. I also watched your great defense allow the Eagles to convert 6/13 3rd Down conversions and the costly 1/1 on 4th D while the Bears went 5/16 on 3rd downs. The Bears D did not get near the pressure they have been getting and only recorded one sack.

    If any one of the 3 points I make above would have changed in the Bears favor, the Bears don’t need to rely on Parkey hitting a last second FG to try and win.

    The Eagles beat the Bears at their own game – win with defense and get good enough QB play to score just enough to win. Foles was very efficient in the second half with 2 TDs and no picks when game was on the line. Bears looked a little too conservative besides 2 throws to ARob and 1 to Bellamy – also Cohen usage was bad, should have had at least 2-3 more targets to mix in a change of pace.

    Parker make/miss/doink aside, Bears didn’t dominate on D nor make the 3rd down stops when they needed to. I had the Under and the game played out mostly how I thought it would but I had the Bears winning by 3-4.

  • BIF

    @mike42 said...

    BIF- Arians would be a great hire for you guys.

    Agreed

  • mike42

    @BIF said...

    We must have watched a different game – I watched an Eagles team convert 3 red zone trips into 2 TDs while the Bears had Zero TDs when they got inside the Eagles 20. I also watched your great defense allow the Eagles to convert 6/13 3rd Down conversions and the costly 1/1 on 4th D while the Bears went 5/16 on 3rd downs. The Bears D did not get near the pressure they have been getting and only recorded one sack.

    If any of the 3 points I make above would have changed in the Bears favor, the Bears don’t need to rely on Parkey hitting a last second FG to try and win.

    The Eagles beat the wars at their own game – win with defense and get good enough QB play to score just enough to win. Foles was very efficient in the second half with 2 TDs and no picks when game was on the line. Bears looked a little too conservative besides 2 throws to ARob and 1 to Bellamy – also Cohen usage was bad, should have at least 2-3 more targets.

    Parker make/miss aside, Bears didn’t dominate on D nor make the 3rd down stops when they needed to. I had the Under and the game played out mostly how I thought it would but I had the Bears winning by 3-4.

    We gained 1 more yd per play 5.7-4.7, had 57 more total yards and won the TO over battle 2-0.

    So apparently, the stats watched a different game then you. Those stats equal winning 80 percent of the time in the NFL.

    Wasn’t our best game, deserved to win. Should have been more aggressive early and canned our kicker mid season. Our QB took a step forward after nerves settled, everyone is back next year.

  • 808state

    Injuries on the Cowboys have opened the door for a Tavon Austin revenge game

  • Messiah717

    @808state said...

    Injuries on the Cowboys have opened the door for a Tavon Austin revenge game

    Yes, I without a doubt see the Cowboys making Austin the focus of their offense because it’s the Rams.

  • BIF

    @mike42 said...

    We gained 1 more yd per play 5.7-4.7, had 57 more total yards and won the TO over battle 2-0.

    So apparently, the stats watched a different game then you. Those stats equal winning 80 percent of the time in the NFL.

    Wasn’t our best game, deserved to win. Should have been more aggressive early and canned our kicker mid season. Our QB took a step forward after nerves settled, everyone is back next year.

    You moved it well between the 20’s which usually means nothing and that’s why 1 TD is worth more than 2 FGs. You guys had poor red zone offense (3 FGs in 3 trips inside 20) and didn’t sustain drives bc of poor 3rd down efficiency.

    I don’t blame Parkey, they should have never been in that spot at the end and a guy did get a finger on it so who knows if he kicks it 2 inches higher or your guy holds his block there a fraction longer.

    For sure, you guys have a good core and everyone in your division is in a questionable or rebuilding state now too. You should go back to the playoffs next year and host a game.

  • ASitar

    Chris Hogan showed up in the playoffs last year and Chris Hogan will show up in the playoffs this year

  • squidkill

    @mike42 said...

    We gained 1 more yd per play 5.7-4.7, had 57 more total yards and won the TO over battle 2-0.

    So apparently, the stats watched a different game then you. Those stats equal winning 80 percent of the time in the NFL.

    Wasn’t our best game, deserved to win. Should have been more aggressive early and canned our kicker mid season. Our QB took a step forward after nerves settled, everyone is back next year.

  • infantryboys

    @808state said...

    Injuries on the Cowboys have opened the door for a Tavon Austin revenge game

    I’m a Cowboys fan. Have been since I was informed by my dad, as a child, that I was a Cowboys fan before Super Bowl VII. Don’t use Austin.

  • infantryboys

    @ASitar said...

    Chris Hogan showed up in the playoffs last year and Chris Hogan will show up in the playoffs this year

    He’ll be at the game, you’re correct.

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