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  • freeway95us

    With all of the data that is available, how can I develop a game script or game theory for GPPs? How can I develop a contrarian (smart) way of thinking for NFL?

  • fizzle13

    Read and watch anything JM and Silva do on here and RW. I’m not going to try and reinvent the wheel.

  • jr1886

    • 2017 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    While you should try to learn from others, look for opportunies where you disagree with public opinion or experts.

  • freeway95us

    Ok, Maybe there is a backlog of gamescrips i can look at as an example.

  • ChaosM83

    • 682

      RG Overall Ranking

    If you see everybody moving towards one player at a position, take somebody in the same price range, if it’s a WR look at other WR on the same team. If he gets the TDs instead if the heavily owned player then you just jumped a large section of the field.

  • chess_is_ok

    • 30

      RG Overall Ranking

    • $2M Prize Winner

    • Ranked #28

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2017 DraftKings FFWC Champion

    get all the gamescripts you can

  • kbarnhill7523

    • 674

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • x2

      2017 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    I don’t think this is possible without actually watching games. The data will tell you a lot. But it won’t tell you everything. Also, a lot of the data we use is not meant to be taken as concrete as it seems, like Vegas lines and O/Us.

    Looking at the play calling from coaches for the first 10 plays of a game will give you a window in to what they are trying to do. Are they being aggressive? Are they featuring a certain player? Are they going after a particular perceived weakness of a defense?

    When you look at those questions you can script out what happens if they are successful or unsuccessful in a certain area. Will they abandon the run if it isn’t working? Will a QB not look to a particular WR if he cuts of his route too early or has a drop on an early drive?

    The #1 way to be contrarian is to go against Vegas or pick in a lower O/U game where you think it could be much higher scoring than projected by Vegas. Week 1 is a great place to exploit Vegas.

    The other great way to be contrarian is to pick more MIDDLE tier players. This week AB, OBJ and Julio are all $9k or more on FD. The teams that use the lower cost players (like a $5k Dak Prescott or a $5500 Marvin Jones on FD) will most likely be pairing these low cost players with the players that cost the MOST. So, when you are building your roster think about what using the low cost player allows and how other people will be playing and be different. Prescott ($5k), Jones ($5500) and AB ($9300) costs the same as Prescott ($5k), Sammy Watkins ($7300) and Alshon Jeffrey ($7500). Prescott/Jones/AB will be a popular combo in cash games. In tournaments Prescott/Jeffrey/Watkins might have a bigger ceiling.

    You can also pay up at a certain position if others are using that position to save money.

    But if you are a serious NFL player (or want to be) you HAVE to watch the games. Its the #1 thing I’ve done that has made me a good NFL player.

  • fpm2015

    @kbarnhill7523 said...

    I don’t think this is possible without actually watching games. The data will tell you a lot. But it won’t tell you everything. Also, a lot of the data we use is not meant to be taken as concrete as it seems, like Vegas lines and O/Us.

    Looking at the play calling from coaches for the first 10 plays of a game will give you a window in to what they are trying to do. Are they being aggressive? Are they featuring a certain player? Are they going after a particular perceived weakness of a defense?

    When you look at those questions you can script out what happens if they are successful or unsuccessful in a certain area. Will they abandon the run if it isn’t working? Will a QB not look to a particular WR if he cuts of his route too early or has a drop on an early drive?

    The #1 way to be contrarian is to go against Vegas or pick in a lower O/U game where you think it could be much higher scoring than projected by Vegas. Week 1 is a great place to exploit Vegas.

    The other great way to be contrarian is to pick more MIDDLE tier players. This week AB, OBJ and Julio are all $9k or more on FD. The teams that use the lower cost players (like a $5k Dak Prescott or a $5500 Marvin Jones on FD) will most likely be pairing these low cost players with the players that cost the MOST. So, when you are building your roster think about what using the low cost player allows and how other people will be playing and be different. Prescott ($5k), Jones ($5500) and AB ($9300) costs the same as Prescott ($5k), Sammy Watkins ($7300) and Alshon Jeffrey ($7500). Prescott/Jones/AB will be a popular combo in cash games. In tournaments Prescott/Jeffrey/Watkins might have a bigger ceiling.

    You can also pay up at a certain position if others are using that position to save money.

    But if you are a serious NFL player (or want to be) you HAVE to watch the games. Its the #1 thing I’ve done that has made me a good NFL player.

    well said and thank you for your insight

  • deactivated51600

    @kbarnhill7523 said...

    I don’t think this is possible without actually watching games. The data will tell you a lot. But it won’t tell you everything. Also, a lot of the data we use is not meant to be taken as concrete as it seems, like Vegas lines and O/Us.

    Looking at the play calling from coaches for the first 10 plays of a game will give you a window in to what they are trying to do. Are they being aggressive? Are they featuring a certain player? Are they going after a particular perceived weakness of a defense?

    When you look at those questions you can script out what happens if they are successful or unsuccessful in a certain area. Will they abandon the run if it isn’t working? Will a QB not look to a particular WR if he cuts of his route too early or has a drop on an early drive?

    The #1 way to be contrarian is to go against Vegas or pick in a lower O/U game where you think it could be much higher scoring than projected by Vegas. Week 1 is a great place to exploit Vegas.

    The other great way to be contrarian is to pick more MIDDLE tier players. This week AB, OBJ and Julio are all $9k or more on FD. The teams that use the lower cost players (like a $5k Dak Prescott or a $5500 Marvin Jones on FD) will most likely be pairing these low cost players with the players that cost the MOST. So, when you are building your roster think about what using the low cost player allows and how other people will be playing and be different. Prescott ($5k), Jones ($5500) and AB ($9300) costs the same as Prescott ($5k), Sammy Watkins ($7300) and Alshon Jeffrey ($7500). Prescott/Jones/AB will be a popular combo in cash games. In tournaments Prescott/Jeffrey/Watkins might have a bigger ceiling.

    You can also pay up at a certain position if others are using that position to save money.

    But if you are a serious NFL player (or want to be) you HAVE to watch the games. Its the #1 thing I’ve done that has made me a good NFL player.

    When you say watch the games are you recommending watch all the games on something like NFL rewind? or do you think that watching as much as possible live on Sunday/Monday is enough? Thanks for the post btw

  • kbarnhill7523

    • 674

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • x2

      2017 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    @whoisjohngalt said...

    When you say watch the games are you recommending watch all the games on something like NFL rewind? or do you think that watching as much as possible live on Sunday/Monday is enough? Thanks for the post btw

    To clarify, I’m not saying to watch ALL of the games. You can get on Rewind or tape the games on Sunday Ticket and then fast forward through them to pick up things.

    The things I look for are:

    - offensive playcalling… first ten plays of a half and the 2 min drill (this can help with kickers also on FD… some teams are ok with just playing for a long field goal on certain possessions of the game)

    - dominant WR play that doesn’t necessarily show up in the stat sheet (defensive PI calls, plays called back for holding, players wide open down field that the QB didn’t see… all these things will be looked at on tape by teams before the next game and then the same plays will get called in the next game which can result in players being underpriced because the stats don’t reflect the actual performance)

    - players looking more “sudden” then everyone else (devonta freeman and thomas rawls come to mind from last year, when they were in the game they were going full speed, even if they weren’t breaking big plays you could see that they were “on”)

  • deactivated51600

    @kbarnhill7523 said...

    To clarify, I’m not saying to watch ALL of the games. You can get on Rewind or tape the games on Sunday Ticket and then fast forward through them to pick up things.

    The things I look for are:

    - offensive playcalling… first ten plays of a half and the 2 min drill (this can help with kickers also on FD… some teams are ok with just playing for a long field goal on certain possessions of the game)

    - dominant WR play that doesn’t necessarily show up in the stat sheet (defensive PI calls, plays called back for holding, players wide open down field that the QB didn’t see… all these things will be looked at on tape by teams before the next game and then the same plays will get called in the next game which can result in players being underpriced because the stats don’t reflect the actual performance)

    - players looking more “sudden” then everyone else (devonta freeman and thomas rawls come to mind from last year, when they were in the game they were going full speed, even if they weren’t breaking big plays you could see that they were “on”)

    Thanks for being willing to share.I appreciate that advice and will definitely implement it.

  • Tammy409

    I won’t clutter the thread by re-posting, but that was a dynamite response from @kbarnhill73. Well Done Sir; & Much Appreciated.

  • freeway95us

    i will definitely take that into consideration. Thanks Chaos

  • freeway95us

    Awesome advice. I noticed that there are full games on youtube i can look at as well.

  • viciousphilpy

    think things through… you’re going to be wrong a lot… but what you need to do is think about things like:

    If you are taking Dak Prescott, what are you expecting from him? Let’s say you expect 2 Passing TDs, 1 Rushing TD.

    If this is your idea, then you do not want Ezekiel Elliott, unless you think he’s going to catch one of those passes

  • w3stcoastoff3ns3

    A lot of what has been said here is very solid, but I want to add a few things on and tell you my personal experience playing DFS. Do your own research, stay away from those “start’em/sit’em” type of articles, and get your line ups planed out and submitted well in advance. My biggest mistake last year was always waiting until the day before to put my LU’s in. I missed so many clerical errors, etc. that costed me money. I had a routine of entering all my cash game line ups into GPP’s (“just in case”), one week I forgot to enter a few of my cash game line ups into GPP’s and had a cash game go for like 190 points which would have won me $400 almost $500 bucks. Not a lot for a top tier player but I guy like me who only plays $25-50 a week it would have been a huge win. Just watch the games and trust your eyes.

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