NFL FORUM

Comments

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Monday, 10/26
    8:15 PM EST : Chicago ( 6 ) at LA Rams ( -6 ) —- T: 44.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • superjon

    @bhdevault said...

    Monday, 10/26
    8:15 PM EST : Chicago ( 6 ) at LA Rams ( 6 ) — T: 216

    So I’m guessing kickers are off the table with a 216 total?

    :)

  • Alvance83

    @superjon said...

    So I’m guessing kickers are off the table with a 216 total?

    :)

    🤣🤣I’m using lebron as captain

  • fleishmo6

    AD for me

  • monarch

    Lauri Markannen. He is due for some extra minutes at the five Wendell Carter Jr out tonight.

  • Pandamonious

    • 857

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #93

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    Thanks for making me miss NBA….

    I fixed it. Thanks.

  • winnerchickendinner

    Tempted to go no QB

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    @superjon said...

    So I’m guessing kickers are off the table with a 216 total?

    :)

    Whoops! haha.

    Thanks Panda

  • Volkster6

    I like Foles as captain to be contrarian since everyone will think QBs will be over owned and thus not want to play them up top. #galaxybrain

  • yisman

    worth a shot I think. Maybe 50% chance at each, so EV of one is 50 cents and EV of the other is 25 crowns, which is 4.5 cents. So 54.5 cents let’s say for playing 3 bucks, and you’d need to play a dollar for ironman anyway

    https://www.draftkings.com/2020-halloween-trick-or-treat

  • Dr_Gonzo

    @yisman said...

    worth a shot I think. Maybe 50% chance at each, so EV of one is 50 cents and EV of the other is 25 crowns, which is 4.5 cents. So 54.5 cents let’s say for playing 3 bucks, and you’d need to play a dollar for ironman anyway

    https://www.draftkings.com/2020-halloween-trick-or-treat

    Hey yis, betting question. FanDuel looks like they will accept a bet of bears +14.5 along with rams moneyline. I think the rams win a fairly close game tonight, is this a bad bet? I’m surprised they will take it

  • yisman

    @Dr_Gonzo said...

    Hey yis, betting question. FanDuel looks like they will accept a bet of bears +14.5 along with rams moneyline. I think the rams win a fairly close game tonight, is this a bad bet? I’m surprised they will take it

    As a parlay? It’s not correlated (it’s anti-correlated), in fact, so I’m not surprised they’d take it.

    They usually will adjust the odds to account for the anti-correlation in a SGP so you should be ok.

  • Dr_Gonzo

    @yisman said...

    As a parlay? It’s not correlated (it’s anti-correlated), in fact, so I’m not surprised they’d take it.

    They usually will adjust the odds to account for the anti-correlation in a SGP so you should be ok.

    Yes as a parley it’s +123. I googled it and all the results say a book would never take it.

  • yisman

    @Dr_Gonzo said...

    Yes as a parley it’s +123. I googled it and all the results say a book would never take it.

    Big difference.

    Most books will simply not allow correlated parlays.

    FD earlier this year started offering SGP (same game parlay). They know a lot of the results are correlated and odds are adjusted for that.

    For example if you combined LAR to win and LAR -6, you’re going to get the same odds as LAR -6.

    In your case, you’d actually get better odds than you would as a standard parlay since one result hitting makes the other result less likely to occur.

    You’re betting on an exact margin, which is something some books offer. Rams have to win by 1-14.

    Just for reference, if not adjusted for correlation, Rams ML and Bears +14.5 would be around -115 odds (risk 115 to win 100).

    You’re getting +odds instead.

  • ValuableTrader

    Love me some Foles/Robinson/Montgomery tonight. I just think Foles is due to have a solid, no turnover game…shows the Bears are legit.

    Both have pretty solid defenses this year and very comparable. Ram’s should have to air it out a bit more tonight assuming the run game gets shut down and although Goff airing it out is fun to watch when it’s clicking, it’s patchy and the focus this year has been the run game. I just don’t think the Rams are that explosive anymore and the Bears have all of the pieces for a really good football team this year.

    Bears 25
    Rams 19

    Taking the under too, think it’s 45 or 46.

    GL boyz

  • RatedDAL

    Does Ramsey shadow? I keep ending up with Miller because of this idea.

  • winnerchickendinner

    Going all in on Henderson bounce back. Ronald Jones and the Buccaneers are the only good run game the Bears have faced all year and saw how he did last week.

  • Brendan239

    Demetrius Harris will find the EZ onight and leave everyone

  • Alvance83

    @yisman said...

    Big difference.

    Most books will simply not allow correlated parlays.

    FD earlier this year started offering SGP (same game parlay). They know a lot of the results are correlated and odds are adjusted for that.

    For example if you combined LAR to win and LAR -6, you’re going to get the same odds as LAR -6.

    In your case, you’d actually get better odds than you would as a standard parlay since one result hitting makes the other result less likely to occur.

    You’re betting on an exact margin, which is something some books offer. Rams have to win by 1-14.

    Just for reference, if not adjusted for correlation, Rams ML and Bears +14.5 would be around -115 odds (risk 115 to win 100).

    You’re getting +odds instead.

    +1 on this , wish I could find a book that does. I’m in Canada and fan fuel and DraftKings are not available here s I have been on 365, wish I could make a switch to somewhere that has more prop lines

  • Alvance83

    @winnerchickendinner said...

    Going all in on Henderson bounce back. Ronald Jones and the Buccaneers are the only good run game the Bears have faced all year and saw how he did last week.

    😮I was leaning with one of the other two. Looks like Henderson has lead job but itching to put Akers in my single lineup tonight
    Been trying to game history when Robinson and Ramsey lined up together. We know they practiced together a lot in Jacksonville. Not sure if this info will correlate or not but would like to know anyway

  • marker0357

    I’m liking TE’s tonight. Graham & Higbee/Everett. I see it as a fairly low scoring game with some movement between the 30 yd line but only 4 TD’s or less total. Kickers could play a significant role as well if it follows this game flow.

  • Felixxberg

    Who the hell scores points for Chicago?? They’re 5-1, but the only guy who has legit FPPG is Robinson!

  • BIF

    @Dr_Gonzo said...

    Yes as a parley it’s +123. I googled it and all the results say a book would never take it.

    It’s basically a margin of victory prop

    You are picking Rams to win by 1 to 14

  • BIF

    @Brendan239 said...

    Demetrius Harris will find the EZ onight and leave everyone

    TE Cole Kmet gonna be TD trolling again this week

  • @BIF said...

    TE Cole Kmet gonna be TD trolling again this week

    Bears stack leaving alot of money on the table ftw!

  • Randallus

    This is a game for the middle of the field. Both teams’ weaknesses are out of the slot and run defense. Henderson/Montgomery are great plays. I also like Graham, Everett, and Kupp. Higbee is dealing with a hand injury, so he might take a backseat to Everett in the passing game tonight.

    Here’s what the Rams have done to slot receivers and TEs in the last few weeks:

    Cole Beasley 6 receptions 100 yards
    Evan Engram 6 receptions 35 yards
    George Kittle 7 receptions 109 yards 1 TD

    Consequentially, here’s what the Bears have done at the same spot:

    Gronk/Brate combined 8 receptions 96 yards
    Pascal 3 receptions 58 yards
    Zaccheaus 4 receptions 41 yards

    Keeping perspective of the teams they played and the quality of the players the opposing teams have at the slot and TE position, it’s pretty clear where the weaknesses are for these two teams on defense.

    EDIT: I’m also fading Robinson. Ramsey has been great at limiting #1 receivers this season. If you think Robinson will get 15 targets, then I recommend grabbing the Rams D. lol

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Subforum Index

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-Gambler (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+. NJ/PA/WV/IN/IA/CO/IL only.