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  • Smallchimp

    Hey, a few months late, but this should tide us over for the next month before the Week 1 prices are up. What transactions or injuries/returns do you think are going to be game changers? As of now, the slate is:

    TNF Showdown:
    Packers @ Bears

    —-

    Main Slate:

    (Early Slate):
    Rams @ Panthers

    Redskins @ Eagles

    Bills @ Jets

    Falcons @ Vikings

    Ravens @ Dolphins

    Chiefs @ Jaguars

    Titans @ Browns

    —-

    (Late Slate):

    Colts @ Chargers

    Bengals @ Seahawks

    49ers @ Buccaneers

    Giants @ Cowboys

    Lions @ Cardinals

    —-

    SNF Showdown:

    Steelers @ Patriots

    —-

    MNF Showdowns:

    Texans @ Saints

    Broncos @ Raiders

  • whoisjohngalt420

    @Smallchimp said...

    SNF Showdown:

    Steelers @ Pittsburgh

    This should be an interesting game!

  • Smallchimp

    @whoisjohngalt420 said...

    This should be an interesting game!

    I’m wondering how they’re going to go about pricing the skill position players for PIT, especially in the Primetime/Full Slate classic contests. JuJu was regularly $7-8K last season while AB was typically $500-1K more than him. I wonder if on the shorter slates, he’ll start off right at $8k (and Showdown pricing equivalent…$10500ish?) and he’s going to need to string together 25ish fantasy points to reach value against New England—a team notorious for being able to make opposing players non-factors. However, in the Showdown slate, he, Edelman, and Conner are likely the safest floor players, considering that NE has the RB carousel and their receiving options are question-marks outside of JE, so it may be an issue of needing the ceiling. In the Sun Night-Monday Night slate, there’s definitely enough pivots that JSS isn’t a risk that you’re locked into taking.

  • sochoice

    • 2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2017 FanDuel WFFC Champion

    Steelers playing themselves and the Packers playing two different opponents. Wow, the NFL has really changed!

  • Smallchimp

    @sochoice said...

    Steelers playing themselves and the Packers playing two different opponents. Wow, the NFL has really changed!

    Weird new scheduling thing, they basically just do Madden random team to determine match ups

  • AVivier

    If I can be serious among the joke comments, obviously stacking the Bills/Jets is the million dollar play here.

  • Smallchimp

    I’m wondering how willing they’ll be to use NBA-level pricing for top RBs this season. I’d imagine Gurley was the highest priced player ever in NFL (correct me if I’m wrong) and even then, it still seemed nearly as safe as the period of time when Harden was dropping 80-burgers every night. The 3 stud RB and value WRs was a very real meta, is it gonna fly or will they Gurley other players or potentially price WRs at a point where you’re more interested in a cheap OBJ than the FP piñata RBs?

  • whoisjohngalt420

    @Smallchimp said...

    I’m wondering how willing they’ll be to use NBA-level pricing for top RBs this season. I’d imagine Gurley was the highest priced player ever in NFL (correct me if I’m wrong) and even then, it still seemed nearly as safe as the period of time when Harden was dropping 80-burgers every night. The 3 stud RB and value WRs was a very real meta, is it gonna fly or will they Gurley other players or potentially price WRs at a point where you’re more interested in a cheap OBJ than the FP piñata RBs?

    Good point. I’m actually quite curious to see how Gurley’s pricing is handled considering the usage issues down the stretch last year ..

  • Smallchimp

    @whoisjohngalt420 said...

    Good point. I’m actually quite curious to see how Gurley’s pricing is handled considering the usage issues down the stretch last year ..

    I can’t imagine they price Gurley too cheaply, just for the fact that DK seems to try not have stud players priced in nuclear spots. I’d imagine Gurley enters above $7000 unless it’s 110% certain he’s in a role where he can’t approach value at that price.

    But in general, players with CMC/Pre-Gurley levels of usage are underpriced unless they’re at or above 9 at the very least. Nearing 25-30 targets + carries a game means hitting 25-30 FP isn’t out of the picture and break-even value at 20% of your salary is hard to beat (or at least too easy to pass up). At least making elite WRs more incentivized by lowering their price by 10% or so would help make the meta more balanced. 30-ish opportunities vs. 10-ish opportunities is too easy a decision when matchup is neutral/not considered

  • Smallchimp

    @AVivier said...

    If I can be serious among the joke comments, obviously stacking the Bills/Jets is the million dollar play here.

    I’m super interested in either defense at this point, it currently has the most “top defenses playing bottom offenses” potential at the moment. Obviously I hope the Jets are solid this season, but both have very playable defenses. I’m interested to see how chicken people are to play Bell

  • mciama2000

    I think Gurley ends up in the 6500-7000 range since no one has any idea what to expect from him. I kinda see him ending up like Melvin Gordon last year, more rushes given to the backups, but more targets, and most of the redzone work.

  • Smallchimp

    @mciama2000 said...

    I think Gurley ends up in the 6500-7000 range since no one has any idea what to expect from him. I kinda see him ending up like Melvin Gordon last year, more rushes given to the backups, but more targets, and most of the redzone work.

    If he averages about 15ish carries/targets, $6500 is probably the most likely landing spot. As far as starting spot, I feel like $7500 is a pretty likely point where DK figures it’s a safe price to balance risk and reward

  • mciama2000

    I’m curious to see what they start Freeman at, guy pretty has been forgotten about. He’s had a year to recover, no coleman and no more drunk playcalling. Could easily see 25+ touches week 1. Thinking low 6k range.

  • Smallchimp

    @mciama2000 said...

    I’m curious to see what they start Freeman at, guy pretty has been forgotten about. He’s had a year to recover, no coleman and no more drunk playcalling. Could easily see 25+ touches week 1. Thinking low 6k range.

    Will the Vikings be a tough run defense? Regardless, I’d expect the workload you estimated. Ito Smith and Qadree Ollison aren’t necessarily the most wily backups, but I wouldn’t entirely be surprised if they allow one or both of the backups to eat up snaps and take it a little easy on Freeman. At $6000 (which is ENTIRELY possible), I don’t think you’re in a bad spot to meet value. 20ish points are completely possible, and the only back at that price (expected) that’d have that as a probable outcome would be Mack (IND), Peterson (WAS), Cook (MIN), and Fournette (JAX) (depending on how bearish they are on him with price). Almost half of the teams have RB’s you’ll pay $7000+ for and the rest are probably $4-6K. I really wouldn’t be surprised if having a $6K RB will be a way to differentiate your lineup in a positive way.

  • AVivier

    @Smallchimp said...

    I’m super interested in either defense at this point, it currently has the most “top defenses playing bottom offenses” potential at the moment. Obviously I hope the Jets are solid this season, but both have very playable defenses. I’m interested to see how chicken people are to play Bell

    Defenses will be chalk. Big play or nothing offenses are against exploitable defenses in beautiful weather. Playmakers for half price in this game. Kidding…

  • Smallchimp

    @AVivier said...

    Defenses will be chalk. Big play or nothing offenses are against exploitable defenses in beautiful weather. Playmakers for half price in this game. Kidding…

    What do you think ownership (at least order) would be when you figure these are probably going to be popular: Detroit (vs. a rookie QB and HC), Philly (most likely vs. a rookie QB), Ravens (vs. a rookie QB/potential Fitztragic), Jets, Bills? On the main slate, it seems like these are the most cut-and-dry DST matchups.

    I’d think it’d be Ravens > Eagles > Bills > Jets > Detroit

  • mciama2000

    On a side note, content related Silva left Rotoworld to start his own side with Leviatan. So now the Matchups Column will be behind the paywall, which sucks cause that was my favorite article to read.

  • Smallchimp

    If Melvin Gordon misses out on much time this offseason, it’s going to be interesting to see how that dynamic breaks down. I’m definitely interested in Hunter Henry and Allen more so than Ekeler and Jackson

  • thedkexperience

    There is nothing about what the Jets did with their coaching staff this offseason that makes me want to even attempt using their players. Personally I really did like Darnold for this season in December but bringing in an “offensive guru” who lead the Dolphins to the slowest paced offense in the NFL isn’t how you develop a young QB. All I see this year are a bunch of delay of game penalties on Darnold while LB points and yells at him.

    Side note … I went through the whole NFL schedule last night and placed over under bets on any team I projected more or less than 2 games away from the Vegas line.

    Overs – Pats, Chiefs, Steelers
    Unders – 49ers, Falcons, Bucs, Raiders, Jets

  • OneShotKill17

    This is more contest related but I’m excited to play more showdown slates this year. I had some success last year but didn’t really start playing them until later in the season. Fun and some edge if you correlate your lineups correctly.

  • Smallchimp

    @OneShotKill17 said...

    This is more contest related but I’m excited to play more showdown slates this year. I had some success last year but didn’t really start playing them until later in the season. Fun and some edge if you correlate your lineups correctly.

    Me too! I had a couple decent showdown nights, but I feel like I didn’t have all the pieces together as far as process goes. Hopefully closer to the season I can get a little thought map together or something for the opening showdowns.

  • Smallchimp

    Salaries are out!

  • baseballislife93

    @Smallchimp said...

    Salaries are out!

    Crickets

  • mciama2000

    Think they put them out way too early, there will be a bunch of injuries leaving some major mispricing. Looking at it now, I like all most of the 5k RBs. Keryonn without Ridick taking away 3rd down, and this Gordon holdout probably goes into the reg season, Eckler at 5.5 is most likely going to be chalk.

  • baseballislife93

    @mciama2000 said...

    Think they put them out way too early, there will be a bunch of injuries leaving some major mispricing. Looking at it now, I like all most of the 5k RBs. Keryonn without Ridick taking away 3rd down, and this Gordon holdout probably goes into the reg season, Eckler at 5.5 is most likely going to be chalk.

    I don’t think I’ma go any higher then Fournette at 6.1k
    So many options and could be even more if some guys above get hurt in preseason

  • Smallchimp

    Only issue I see going too value oriented on the low end is that undoubtedly there’s going to be a repeat of last season opener slate where high ceiling players all have their ceiling games at depressed pricing and then total scores were around 250 or whatever. They did a lot better this year bumping the high end RBs into “opportunity cost” salary ranges, so I’m less worried about them, but there’s a LOT of value from 5-7k that could be wonky. I’m a little less excited on Ekeler, I don’t think he has a Week 1 ceiling, but there’s plenty to pick from.

    Salaries are DEFINITELY out too early, but it’s just the custom at this point. Eat the nonsense chalk and move on I guess

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