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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    3:05 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 3.5 ) at Green Bay ( -3.5 ) —- T: 50.5
    6:40 PM EST : Buffalo ( 3 ) at Kansas City ( -3 ) —- T: 53

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  • miggs6876

    @Getty33 said...

    The fact that Singletary has a total of 20 touches in the last 3 games is astounding. The coaching staff there has never liked him. Probably for good reason.

    I don’t think it’s about the coaching staff not liking him. He was pretty effective as a rookie. However, he isn’t an everyday powerhouse rb. He is best out of the backfield catching passes and a change up runner to a true number one back. I will agree that he is being under used. Dabol has pretty much given Allen the keys. Thus far, it’s been effective. My gut says Allen needs help to beat the Chiefs. A decent running game will go a long way.

  • miggs6876

    @mike42 said...

    First time I’ve checked this forum in a month and I’m only posting because everything you just said is the opposite of the truth. KC is heavy man D that runs a lot of press coverage. Even though they are good vs WR’s, they do face a lot of deep balls because their CB’s are aggressive. The matchup in a vacuum isn’t good for the best fantasy WR in football over the last month. Although, Smoky and/or Gabriel are bound to see some good deep shots in this one if/when they beat press coverage and because Diggs should draw the S help over the top.

    Singletary- Both Indy and Balt had really good run D’s. WHile it was strange they never bothered to try running the ball really at all Vs those 2 teams, it would be suicidal and stupid for them to follow the same game plan Vs KC. ANd that’s the thing, we may question things about the 2020 Bills, but nobody calls them stupid. They let you run on them because that’s smart and the numbers back it up. They pass more than they run because that’s smart. Smart in this game would be attacking a crappy LB core and a front 4 that only excels at pass rush with your RB in order to keep the GOAT on the sidelines and set up the passing game in a difficult matchup. 75% chance they use SIngletary more than most think because that would be the smart thing to do. This is the first run funnel they’ve faced since Moss went down. I think he gets 15 plus touches as a result.

    I’ve retired again.

    Really good post here.

  • Alvance83

    Mike 42 , as always on point and well thought out projection. No more quitting though, you’re stuck here forever ahahaha
    I locked in singletary and J brown in my dfs lineups and will be over weight on props in the game. Knox will also be in a lot of lineups and prop bets!

  • miggs6876

    @Alvance83 said...

    Mike 42 , as always on point and well thought out projection. No more quitting though, you’re stuck here forever ahahaha
    I locked in singletary and J brown in my dfs lineups and will be over weight on props in the game. Knox will also be in a lot of lineups and prop bets!

    Smoke could have a big game. He played well last game and was more involved in the offense. Perhaps, it was because of Beasley not being 100%. Him and Allen do have some great chemistry with the long ball. KC is aggressive and might be able to be beat on some longer passes. The risk can definetly be rewarded. Havent looked at prices but wondering if a Hardman, Robinson, or healthy Watkins might be a better play.

  • Alvance83

    @miggs6876 said...

    Smoke could have a big game. He played well last game and was more involved in the offense. Perhaps, it was because of Beasley not being 100%. Him and Allen do have some great chemistry with the long ball. KC is aggressive and might be able to be beat on some longer passes. The risk can definetly be rewarded. Havent looked at prices but wondering if a Hardman, Robinson, or healthy Watkins might be a better play.

    Agree with the call on the kc players below the big 3( patty, kelce, hill) I’m leaning Robinson right now mainly because I can never predict Andy Reid. My gut says that hardman played well last week and got some decent usage, this week will be one of the other 2, Watkins health being a variable, is why I am landing on Robinson. I’ve stayed clear of number 1 receivers against bills this year although hill is really uncover-able. Chiefs back field will be a target for me also, hoping ceh not playing

  • squidkill

    Bills aren’t running the ball. They tried that in the last meeting in week and it was a fail. Again, you need to score 30 plus to beat KC

  • bigwillie20

    @squidkill said...

    Bills aren’t running the ball. They tried that in the last meeting in week and it was a fail. Again, you need to score 30 plus to beat KC

    Only needed 23 last week

  • squidkill

    — Ya- with Mahomes missing time—- Need an asterisk on that one-

  • squidkill

    Also- you need 30 to BEAT KC – Cleveland didn’t beat KC

  • Alvance83

    @squidkill said...

    Bills aren’t running the ball. They tried that in the last meeting in week and it was a fail. Again, you need to score 30 plus to beat KC

    What do you see buffalos road to 30 plus looking like Squid?

  • squidkill

    @Alvance83

    Spread it out 4/5 wide plus more designed runs for Allen. I don’t believe in running the ball to “keep Mahomes off the field” they are not a running team, they are not a running offense they are not going to suddenly go run heavy in the AFC championship game.

    For example, say KC gets 11 or 12 possessions in a typical game. Buff decides to go run heavy and reduce the possessions down to 9 or 10. KC is still going to score 4 to 5 TDs in those possessions. You are still going to need 30 plus to win.

    Unless Mahomes’ foot/ head issues are far more worse than the public knows.

  • squidkill

    For the record, I like the Bills 33-30 this week

  • Alvance83

    2 big injuries from their earlier matchup. I believe that both J Brown and Milano didn’t play. Milano is very important for the bills d

  • Alvance83

    @squidkill said...

    @Alvance83

    Spread it out 4/5 wide plus more designed runs for Allen. I don’t believe in running the ball to “keep Mahomes off the field” they are not a running team, they are not a running offense they are not going to suddenly go run heavy in the AFC championship game.

    For example, say KC gets 11 or 12 possessions in a typical game. Buff decides to go run heavy and reduce the possessions down to 9 or 10. KC is still going to score 4 to 5 TDs in those possessions. You are still going to need 30 plus to win.

    Unless Mahomes’ foot/ head issues are far more worse than the public knows.

    Love it Squid! I’ve already bet bills money line 🤑

  • realphipps

    So you guys think KC is going heavy man coverage vs Josh Allen?

    That sounds like the easiest 100 yard rushing game of Allen’s life.

    There is a reason even predominantly man teams run heavy zone vs Lamar, Allen, Murray.

    Man coverage is suicide vs a QB with legs.

  • TopDawgs07

    @squidkill said...

    Bills aren’t running the ball. They tried that in the last meeting in week and it was a fail. Again, you need to score 30 plus to beat KC

    Mahomes has lost exactly 8 games in his career in the NFL. Lets take a look at the scores in those losses:

    New England 43 KC 40
    LA Rams 54 KC 51
    LA Chargers 29 KC 28
    Seattle 38 KC 31
    Indianapolis 19 KC 13
    Houston 31 KC 24
    Tennessee 35 KC 32
    LV Raiders 40 KC 32

    With the exception of the Colts, which Tyreek was out due to injury, every team that beat Mahomes at QB for KC had to score at least 29 points to do it. This idea that teams want to slow the game down to beat KC, to me, doesn’t work. You had better count on scoring at least 30, and most likely more if you want to beat KC with their full arsenal. I think you may want to limit KC’s explosive plays by playing zone and deep zone, but you need to have your offense in high gear to score.

  • TopDawgs07

    @realphipps said...

    So you guys think KC is going heavy man coverage vs Josh Allen?

    That sounds like the easiest 100 yard rushing game of Allen’s life.

    There is a reason even predominantly man teams run heavy zone vs Lamar, Allen, Murray.

    Man coverage is suicide vs a QB with legs.

    Allen’s stats vs. Man Coverage this season have been very impressive. Even better when facing the blitz and man coverage.

  • realphipps

    Playing heavy man coverage vs Allen is essentially, as a defense, granting Brian Daboll a free wish.

  • BigRay

    I don’t see the Bills running a lot. The top end of rushers is like 15 carries and 3 rec. The average is like 6 and 3. Do you think all the sudden in the most important game they change what they have been doing? The Bills play fast. The Chiefs play fast. You don’t see them running down the clock with rushes. If they do slow it down it will be with little dinks and dunks.

    Edit: the WR actually get rushing touches as well on both sides. Diggs/Hill.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @Getty33 said...

    The fact that Singletary has a total of 20 touches in the last 3 games is astounding. The coaching staff there has never liked him. Probably for good reason.

    Yeah, the Bills don’t seem to like any of their RBs lol but it’s a 4 game slate. Pickins are Slim. Singletary has efficiently caught 17 of his 18 tgts since week 13 while KC’s given up 4th most catches/most receiving yds to RBs.

  • WrathofKhaaan

    Rewatching the previous matchups of these teams, a few things stood out to me.

    1. Tampa Bay can shut down Green Bay’s run game, and in doing so, disrupt their balanced attack and limit Rodgers. This is even more likely with Vita Vea returning. Devin White has been lethal vs. the run, with 41 run-stuffing tackles and 10 TFL this season.

    2. Not hot take alert: Davante Adams is the best receiver in the NFL (read: matchup proof). Accordingly, he grades out favorably vs. Carlton Davis at LCB. His ceiling is somewhat lowered by the lack of balanced attack creating worse down & distance (see week 6), but his median outcome remains intact as he will still get his targets.

    3. Lazard has a good matchup in the slot vs a dinged up Sean Murphy-Bunting (see Tre’Quan Smith last week). If any other Packer is going to produce this week, it is most likely Lazard.

    4. Tonyan is the next best option, but he may be held in to block and prevent pass rush.

    5. On the TB side, Godwin has a plus matchup vs Chandon Sullivan in the slot. The big question is whether Jaire Alexander will shadow Mike Evans or not. He did week 6 and held Evans to 1-10 on 2 targets, so it would make sense for them to go back to that strategy, although he has only shadowed several other times this year (Ridley, Jefferson the 2nd game, MJJ the 1st game). If Jaire shadows Evans, AB or Scotty Miller at RWR will have a plus matchup against Kevin King. If he doesn’t shadow, Mike Evans borders must-start territory. Gronk is the 3rd option, he did well vs GB earlier in the year with a line of 5-78-1 on 8 targets.

    6. I expect TB to be able to run on GB. Fournette or Rojo will be a key decision on this slate. I am leaning Fournette atm since he was used at the goal line last week, but we will have to see what Arians says about Rojo’s health. Rojo does open up some salary space.

    7. Kansas City’s RB’s ran all over Buffalo in week 6 to the tune of 35 carries for 204 yards. I think Williams eats this week regardless of who is under center.

    8. Kansas City limited Diggs in week 6, but he still turned in a respectable line of 6-46-1 on 8 targets. Beasley had a good day with 4-45-1 on 7 targets. John Brown was shut out.

    9. Buffalo shut down Tyreek Hill with Tre’Davious White to the tune of 3-20 on 3 targets.

    10. Kelce turned in a stud performance of 5-65-2 on 7 targets. I see Kelce being targeted early and often regardless of who is under center. Kelce was targeted several times and had 2 catches after Henne took over, safety valve.

    11. I have a hard time relying on the Bills to run the ball with Singletary just because they should. His lack of usage and particularly in the red zone is hard to overlook. He was 10-32 and 1-13 on 2 targets and Zack Moss was 5-10 in week 6. I don’t want to die on this hill, I’ll gladly pay $300 more for Williams.

  • miggs6876

    @squidkill said...

    Bills aren’t running the ball. They tried that in the last meeting in week and it was a fail. Again, you need to score 30 plus to beat KC

    Squad, the Chiefs pass rush is very good. The Bills will have to have a resemblance of a running game to slow down their rush. Granted they will live and die with Allen’s arm and to an extent his legs. I think the Bills will try to establish a more balanced attack. Something similar to the first drive after halftime against the Ravens.

  • squidkill

    If Buffalo tries to a more balanced approach they will get WHALLOPPED- Buffalo has ZERO running game- Even moreso without Z Moss.
    They would be fools to go with that approach.

  • miggs6876

    @realphipps said...

    So you guys think KC is going heavy man coverage vs Josh Allen?

    That sounds like the easiest 100 yard rushing game of Allen’s life.

    There is a reason even predominantly man teams run heavy zone vs Lamar, Allen, Murray.

    Man coverage is suicide vs a QB with legs.

    Look to game 6 and you will see what KC game plan is defensively. They played very aggressively. Getting lots of pressure on Allen. He has little time to throw. They took away the short passes and he didn’t have enough time to throw it long. They also stuffed the running game. The Bills offense and team in general is much better than that game. They adjustments will be made by the Bills coaching staff. However, I think a similar Chiefs defensive game plan is imminent. The Bills will have to prove they can beat it.

  • miggs6876

    @TopDawgs07 said...

    Mahomes has lost exactly 8 games in his career in the NFL. Lets take a look at the scores in those losses:

    New England 43 KC 40
    LA Rams 54 KC 51
    LA Chargers 29 KC 28
    Seattle 38 KC 31
    Indianapolis 19 KC 13
    Houston 31 KC 24
    Tennessee 35 KC 32
    LV Raiders 40 KC 32

    With the exception of the Colts, which Tyreek was out due to injury, every team that beat Mahomes at QB for KC had to score at least 29 points to do it. This idea that teams want to slow the game down to beat KC, to me, doesn’t work. You had better count on scoring at least 30, and most likely more if you want to beat KC with their full arsenal. I think you may want to limit KC’s explosive plays by playing zone and deep zone, but you need to have your offense in high gear to score.

    Agree. I think the only chance you have to beat the Chiefs is to play assertive and not conservative. Play to win rather than not to lose. I think Daboll will have this mindset. Allen, Diggs, and company have great confidence and should be ready to execute. I don’t expect a conservative Bills team on Sunday. Really the Bills are playing with house money. The pressure if any is on the favored Chiefs. They are without a doubt the team to beat.

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