NFL FORUM

Comments

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Sunday, January 21st
    3:05 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 9.5 ) at New England ( -9.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    6:40 PM EST : Minnesota ( -3.5 ) at Philadelphia ( 3.5 ) —- T: 38

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these weekly threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • deactivated204643

    @Kamais_Ookin said...

    It’s just one more thing to consider. Maybe it’s just me but this 2 game slate is more complex than recent ones that I can think of. Tough as hell defenses and uncertainties in a lot of areas. Ownership implications on some plays give me further pause.

    I couldn’t agree more, brother. It’s a difficult slate to break down.

    I’m going to get a few hours sleep. Maybe I’ll have an epiphany before lock, lol.

  • depalma13

    @elving188 said...

    There is only 4 QBs available. Will be high ownership on all. The LOWEST will be on Foles

    I can actually see the Vikings going to Bridgewater early in this game. They won’t wait around if Keenum makes a couple of mistakes.

  • Kamais_Ookin

    @depalma13 said...

    I can actually see the Vikings going to Bridgewater early in this game. They won’t wait around if Keenum makes a couple of mistakes.

    God I hope that happens. Would kill a huge amount of lineups. I believe Bradford is the main backup now however. Bridgewater was deactivated last week vs saints in favor of Bradford.

  • elving188

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Kamais_Ookin said...

    I expect modest ownership on bortles and high on keenum/brady. Don’t get much of an edge in this slate with bortles price tag tbh and his incompetency is well known at this point lol. I think I’ve gone mad because I’m planning on using bortles in all of my single entry contests even the expensive ones. My brain is telling me play it safe with brady…

    Moderate maybe. But paying down to him opens up a bit. And most people are still stuck on the “NE allows a lot of yards to opposing QBs” mindset, i feel like

  • elving188

    • Blogger of the Month

    @depalma13 said...

    I can actually see the Vikings going to Bridgewater early in this game. They won’t wait around if Keenum makes a couple of mistakes.

    Not gonna happen. I Don’t get it. Why are people all of a sudden trying to make this case against keenum? He didn’t just become a piece of garbage.

    2nd, Bradford is the backup.

  • Kamais_Ookin

    @elving188 said...

    Moderate maybe. But paying down to him opens up a bit. And most people are still stuck on the “NE allows a lot of yards to opposing QBs” mindset, i feel like

    They do, and I’m amongst them. If horrid Mariota can get 20~pts vs NE then I’ll take my chances with Bortles haha.

  • elving188

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Kamais_Ookin said...

    They do, and I’m amongst them. If horrid Mariota can get 20~pts vs NE then I’ll take my chances with Bortles haha.

    I’m also taking Bortles. My builds have very little Brady, at the moment. But I remember I was with this way of thinking a few times during the regular season and it burned me. Not just once haha. But I think It should be competitive. I hope anyway.

  • Kraigger3

    @elving188 said...

    There is only 4 QBs available. Will be high ownership on all. The LOWEST will be on Foles

    It SHOULD be Foles… I think he has the highest ceiling too.
    Everyone high on Bortles as he has the least intimidating pass defense, and of course the garbage time.
    I’m biased because I think Philly wins, but I see most paying up for Brady, or down for Foles or Bortles. I see Keenum going lowest owned… and for good reason

  • superjon

    I’ll just eat the chalk with Brady or Bortles, and be different elsewhere.

    Bortles allows you to fit in a bit more higher priced guys.

    Brady has torched the jags in the past. It’s the playoffs. It’s Brady.

  • Kraigger3

    @elving188 said...

    Not gonna happen. I Don’t get it. Why are people all of a sudden trying to make this case against keenum? He didn’t just become a piece of garbage.

    2nd, Bradford is the backup.

    Keenum has to come out and have an atrocious start to this game to pull him. This is YOUR GUY, he got you here!
    No way he gets pulled before halftime, even if he produces 3 turnovers. No way in hell Keenum doesn’t start and finish that game unless he’s down 4 scores

  • elving188

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Kraigger3 said...

    It SHOULD be Foles… I think he has the highest ceiling too.
    Everyone high on Bortles as he has the least intimidating pass defense, and of course the garbage time.
    I’m biased because I think Philly wins, but I see most paying up for Brady, or down for Foles or Bortles. I see Keenum going lowest owned… and for good reason

    Wait, so you think Foles has a higher ceiling than Tom Brady?

  • Kraigger3

    @Brian7479 said...

    Okay so my initial thoughts have changed. Here’s what my lineups are looking like:

    Heavy:
    Blake Bortles
    Dion Lewis
    Gronk (which I’m not very excited about)
    Forbath
    Vikings D

    A good amount but not too heavy:
    Brady
    White
    Yeldon
    Clement
    Mckinnon
    Thielen
    Amendola
    Lee
    Elliott
    Gostkowski
    Jax Defense
    NE Defense

    Guys that I will have very little to none:
    Foles
    Fournette
    Murray
    Blount
    Cooks
    Smith
    All TE’s not named Gronk
    Eagles D

    I haven’t been able to do much research so can someone help me with a few things? Who has the better matchup Thielen or Diggs? And which Jax WR’s have the top 2 matchups? I like Thielen and Lee. Any input is appreciated!

    I’m with you on Theilen and Lee. Gronk will be in the winning lineup even with 1 catch for 5 yards…
    I have a thing for Rudolph tomorrow. Ertz I want to fade, but have some exposure out of necessity.
    I think Theilen gets more targets than Diggs.
    Interested in Cooks, but like Hogan most overall for WR in NE.
    Almost have to play Lewis… Burkhead and Clement I love.
    Jags WR a crapshoot. Cole is my least favorite…
    Someone sway me towards one QB as a favorite!!!

  • dab4me1

    GPP Contrarian Plays (since you will need to roster at least one to not tie for first with 1,000 other people):

    Jarius Wright (he had four deep balls thrown his way last week, the same number as Diggs until the final play).

    TJ Yeldon (If Jags go down big early he’s their Pass/Catch RB and will see plenty of snaps)

    Torrey Smith (deep threat who received majority of Foles deep targets last week, and may take on a larger role this week given Alshon’s matchup)

    Marcedes Lewis (20% of his targets on the season are red zone targets, and he played 80% of snaps this season)

    Keelan Cole (Jacksonville’s deep threat, season leader in receiving yards/tds, who will be lowly owned due to his lack of stats the past two weeks. Despite the fact he was three yards short of a TD last week on a 45 yard reception).

    Rex Burkhead (Will be lowly owned coming off a multi-week injury, despite the fact he scored six touchdowns in the last four games he played.)

    Of these players Wright will likely be the lowest owned, though his boom/bust potential is the least likely of all six guys listed here. Alternatively, Burkhead is the likeliest to have a big game, though his ownership will likely be the highest. Keelan Cole is probably the best of these plays in terms of his low ownership and his ability to go for 100+ yards and TD.

    Important Notes:

    - Nick Foles is not a good quarterback no matter how many times people reference his ‘potential’, rostering him is a surefire way to lose money.

    - Zach Ertz, despite his stats, still has Nick Foles throwing him the ball. Kyle Rudolph is a safer play who gets more redzone targets.

    - Dion Lewis is not a lock, Rex Burkhead will likely take away most of his redzone carries. He is still the best RB play on the slate, but be prepared for Burkhead, Fournette, Yeldon, or Murray to possibly outscore him.

    - Brandin Cooks is NE’s #1 receiver not Danny Whitehead. Whitehead is not even their #2 receiver. His stats last week were an anomaly, one that could be repeated, but unlikely.

    - Chris Hogan is going to be massively owned, both sites underpriced him and he will just ‘fit in’ to almost everybody’s lineup. He is still absolutely a threat to have a big game, but keep in mind he may be the highest owned player of the slate.

    - Adam Thielen is the best receiver on the slate, its easy to forget that given his lackluster numbers as of recent, but much like Michael Thomas his FP are misleading due to his lack of TDs. Steffon Diggs only had one game of over 100 yards during the regular season, if he regresses this week and it becomes the Thielen show once again don’t be shocked.

    - Marquis Lee may technically be Jacksonville’s #1 receiver, but Keelan Cole leads the team in receiving yards despite having 25 fewer targets on the season.

    - Latavius Murray is Minnesota’s primary and redzone back, him and Mckinnon no longer split carries, and as of recent their passing targets haven’t been wildly different.

    Hope some of this helps, if you disagree then disregard it, just friendly advice.

  • Kraigger3

    @elving188 said...

    Wait, so you think Foles has a higher ceiling than Tom Brady?

    Honestly, it doesn’t look like it on paper. Dollar for salary I think he could top him. Way lower floor, Brady will have 2 TD for sure.
    Everyone thinks Jags and Pats are hands down higher scoring game. Very well may be true by the numbers and Vegas implications, but I’ve seen more far fetched stuff.
    Pats win, but I don’t think either one of those teams comes close to 40 points.
    In fact, I’ll take the under.

  • elving188

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Kraigger3 said...

    Honestly, it doesn’t look like it on paper. Dollar for salary I think he could top him. Way lower floor, Brady will have 2 TD for sure.
    Everyone thinks Jags and Pats are hands down higher scoring game. Very well may be true by the numbers and Vegas implications, but I’ve seen more far fetched stuff.
    Pats win, but I don’t think either one of those teams comes close to 40 points.
    In fact, I’ll take the under.

    See that’s kind of a back track. lol.

    Dollar for dollar is different than a pure points ceiling.

  • Kraigger3

    @elving188 said...

    See that’s kind of a back track. lol.

    Dollar for dollar is different than a pure points ceiling.

    Understand what you’re saying. Dollar for dollar is different than what I said.
    I see QB ownership Bortles > Brady > Keenum/Foles.
    I don’t see Brady as the top QB I guess is what I’m saying.
    I see one of the other 3 outscoring him, I just don’t know who. If the Bortles ship sinks, many will with it. I see him as the highest owned QB.

  • elving188

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Kraigger3 said...

    Understand what you’re saying. Dollar for dollar is different than what I said.
    I see QB ownership Bortles > Brady > Keenum/Foles.
    I don’t see Brady as the top QB I guess is what I’m saying.
    I see one of the other 3 outscoring him, I just don’t know who. If the Bortles ship sinks, many will with it. I see him as the highest owned QB.

    Yep, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Bortles as the highest owned especially because the huge price difference and what you are able to do with the extra cap room.

  • mike42

    @rsrunningrebels said...

    So I’m going heavy Vikings DST. Gonna throw 25 lus into the $250,000 DK $25 GPP. Problem is….

    I’m predicitng the Vikings to take an early lead in that game on the road in PHI and I have Corey Clement in 11/25 LUs. 5/25 have Wright. Only one of those 25 have them both in the same lu. Now… I’m all about playing low tier players that I think may provide good value but… 16/25 lus with that kind of thinking? Does this spell disaster? Awful risky right? Is there really a need to have so many LUs with low tier players inclusive? I’m trying sooooo hard to stay away from JAX receivers. Thoughts?

    I think Philly is aggressive early. Seems like the general consensus is the opposite, they run and use the short passing game. The problem with that logic is that’s not Pedersons’s MO and it plays right into Minny’s hands. Minny is going to make Foles beat them and I think Pederson gets him going early. Basically, the can’t use the run to setup the pass so they do the opposite. It’s really the best shot they got to win. Not sure it works, but love Pederson as a coach and play caller and Keenum is just as likely to crap himself early as Foles is.

    I’m just not projecting Minny pulling too far ahead. They’ve been running full speed practices for 3 weeks to benefit Foles and he came along Vs Atl in bad weather. Also, the gap between Philly’s D and Minny’s closes a good bit when Minny leaves Minny. I see the spread in this one about right, the sharps have been on Philly mostly and I’d take the points rather than play that Minny pulls away today. I like this game for DFS just because I think both teams are going to be forced to air it out to score.

    Feel the same way about Jax to a lesser extent. The best thing the coaches can do for Bortles/Foles is pass on early downs when D’s are stacking the box. Really confident Pederson knows that and hopeful that Marrone does.

  • rttemple

    So far I’ve got Brady at QB and Amendola, Torrey Smith, Agholor, and Gronk.

    The only receivers with a good matchup are the Jags, and I think they’re going to get blown out.

    Anyone want to talk some sense into me? Lol

  • Theguy49503

    I think Rex is the X-factor here. I think he plays today from what I have been reading

  • elving188

    • Blogger of the Month

    In response to rtemple.

    Sure. Why are you picking Amendola? Apart from his 1 in 1000 games game he had last week. A more legit reason other than recency bias?

  • rttemple

    @elving188 said...

    In response to rtemple.

    Sure. Why are you picking Amendola? Apart from his 1 in 1000 games game he had last week. A more legit reason other than recency bias?

    Hogan’s injury still scares me and I think he’ll be crazy high owned.

  • elving188

    • Blogger of the Month

    @rttemple said...

    Hogan’s injury still scares me and I think he’ll be crazy high owned.

    So any other week would that make you go with Amendola?

    Or would you go with Cooks/Gronk?

  • depalma13

    Feels like a Blount week.

  • elving188

    • Blogger of the Month

    @depalma13 said...

    Feels like a Blount week.

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Subforum Index

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).