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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Sunday, January 21st
    3:05 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 9.5 ) at New England ( -9.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    6:40 PM EST : Minnesota ( -3.5 ) at Philadelphia ( 3.5 ) —- T: 38

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these weekly threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • walkoff9

    brady just prepping his excuse for when the jags beat the shit out of him

  • Falconsfly

    @sox9 said...

    Anyone who played Yeldon last week on a longshot whim playing Hoyer this week? Anyone playing both Yeldon and Hoyer?

    Therre is zero chance Brady would ever miss a game that could potentially send his team to a Super Bowl no matter how hurt the hand is

  • Razzle11

    After reading the thread…here are some of my thoughts for this weekend:

    1) I like Corey Clement as a GPP throw, however I think expectations have to be tempered slightly. He saw only 10 snaps last week and his touch share in those snaps was extremely high. It’s tough to imagine that % being the same, especially when the key to winning the game for the Eagles is ball control offense. They saw what happens when MIN dominates the TOP in the first half last week. Philly also does not have the offense (without Wentz) to find themselves down by 3+ scores.

    2) The thought that its not possible to win a GPP without Brady this week is kind of extreme. The QB position is the one that is the rarest in terms of must have to win GPPs. The variance among QB scores is very small and unless you think he breaks out a Big Ben performance, I could easily see him actually being behind Bortles and Keenum in PT/$. This is especially true on DK, where the prices are vastly separated.

    3) The sudden talk about Ramsey shadowing Gronk is painful to even listen to/read as the mismatch in size is just so tough to overcome. Belichek is smart enough that if Ramsey started shadowing Gronk, Gronk would line up in the slot and they would run the ball in that direction as Gronk is a solid blocker and would wear Ramsey down a TON with him getting caught up in traffic and running into Tackles and Gronk over and over again, which would then open up Gronk for later in the game should they need him. Also Jacksonville has done a pretty good job overall on TE’s all season, I do not think they have to get cute and try to change their coverage that extreme. That creates an additional hole somewhere on the perimeter at that point.

    4) I am starting to think that Cooks is an excellent GPP play as he seems to be being crapped on by everybody in this spot and while, yes, the matchup sucks, we know that games can be had, even against elite CBs.

    5) I agree a ton with the Yeldon play this week. I had some shares last week and then when Ivory was announced as a healthy inactive, I tripled my %. There are 2 legit reasons to consider Yeldon this week: The one being the obvious come from behind, hurry up that Jacksonville may have to perform which would lead to dump offs and draws while the offense is spread out. The other is the fact you just can’t ignore Fournette’s ankle/foot issues. They go back to LSU and we saw last week that things can happen out of nowhere.

    6) I can see a route where 10 different RB’s could be on the large field GPP winning lineups. Obviously guys like Blount, Clement and Yeldon need things to break perfectly, however TDs are the premium in what is proj to be a low scoring two game slate. Ultimately three teams are looking at the ground game as a way to win the game this week (JAX, MIN, PHI) for various reasons. JAX needs their ground game to control the clock, keep Brady off the field. MIN uses the ground game to effectively close out teams. PHI needs to utilize it to keep Nick Foles from having to be a drop back and throw guy for 35+ times.

    7) I really have a feeling that one of these WR’s will be in the nut type lineup this weekend: JWright, TSmith, MHollins, AHurns or MFloyd (Floyd is a painful one to list but he did see an end zone target last weekend)

    8) My heart is still pounding from the finish last weekend. I am a life long Vikings fan, so this playoffs is taking its toll on me. If Minnesota is able to advance, it’s going to be extremely hard for me to NOT go to the Super Bowl.

  • 33BeRad

    this feels like a 2 kicker weekend, HA!

  • squidkill

    @walkoff9 said...

    brady just prepping his excuse for when the jags beat the shit out of him

    Yeah because that his MO blame others and make excuses. You got the wrong guy and team… Their fan base does that but the QB and organization doesn’t

  • deactivated204643

    @Razzle11 said...

    The issue with this is Minnesota’s running game was really bad last year, the oline was far worse and you forgot to mention the wind and weather issues in the game last year. Also the fact that Philly wasn’t down a couple of LBs last year in that game.

    Minnesota’s OL is no better this year than last. Murray is an upgrade over Asiata but not by a lot. Wind and weather issues? I saw none and I’m not about to dig to find out the weather report for that day because unless there were sustained winds of 25-30 or more it wasn’t an issue.

    I don’t get paid to publish ALL my weekly research. I will post a few things I find interesting. As I said, it’s one small part of a puzzle.

    I’m a little surprised at the MIN hype the last couple of days, not just here but nationally. Keenum has been pretty solid this year but PHI D will pose a far bigger challenge than NO. I believe MIN OL will have their hands full with Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham.

    FTR, MIN OL position ranks by PFF:

    LT Reiff 60th
    LG Remmers 42nd
    C Elflein 32nd
    RG Berger 15th
    RT Hill 66th

  • Razzle11

    @bluebroker said...

    Minnesota’s OL is no better this year than last. Murray is an upgrade over Asiata but not by a lot. Wind and weather issues? I saw none and I’m not about to dig to find out the weather report for that day because unless there were sustained winds of 25-30 or more it wasn’t an issue.

    I don’t get paid to publish ALL my weekly research. I will post a few things I find interesting. As I said, it’s one small part of a puzzle.

    I’m a little surprised at the MIN hype the last couple of days, not just here but nationally. Keenum has been pretty solid this year but PHI D will pose a far bigger challenge than NO. I believe MIN OL will have their hands full with Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham.

    FTR, MIN OL position ranks by PFF:

    LT Reiff 60th
    LG Remmers 42nd
    C Elflein 32nd
    RG Berger 15th
    RT Hill 66th

    By #s alone the OL is better this year than last year. The game last year had sustained winds, I remember it very well.

    Rush Yards 2016: 1205, 3.2 YPC
    Rush Yards 2017: 1957, 3.9 YPC

    Team Rankings 2016: 23rd PF, 28th in Yards
    Team Rankings 2017: 10th PF, 11th in Yards

    Sacks Allowed 2016: 38
    Sacks Allowed 2017: 27

    Points per drive 2016: 1.67
    Points per drive 2017: 2.06

  • Razzle11

    @bluebroker said...

    Minnesota’s OL is no better this year than last. Murray is an upgrade over Asiata but not by a lot. Wind and weather issues? I saw none and I’m not about to dig to find out the weather report for that day because unless there were sustained winds of 25-30 or more it wasn’t an issue.

    I don’t get paid to publish ALL my weekly research. I will post a few things I find interesting. As I said, it’s one small part of a puzzle.

    I’m a little surprised at the MIN hype the last couple of days, not just here but nationally. Keenum has been pretty solid this year but PHI D will pose a far bigger challenge than NO. I believe MIN OL will have their hands full with Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham.

    FTR, MIN OL position ranks by PFF:

    LT Reiff 60th
    LG Remmers 42nd
    C Elflein 32nd
    RG Berger 15th
    RT Hill 66th

    Last year’s gamed contained 8 turnovers, 6 sacks and a special teams TD. The game also saw a combined yards per pass attempt of 5.2, which correlates with the windy conditions, and allowed routes to be sat on. Also talking about a LB group last year that had Jordan Hicks and Mychal Kendricks healthy and Connor Barwin.

  • Stewburtx8

    • 2012 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    @Razzle11 said...

    Last year’s gamed contained 8 turnovers, 6 sacks and a special teams TD. The game also saw a combined yards per pass attempt of 5.2, which correlates with the windy conditions, and allowed routes to be sat on. Also talking about a LB group last year that had Jordan Hicks and Mychal Kendricks healthy and Connor Barwin.

    The Eagles LB’s are not really the reason that they’ve been so good against the run. It’s the front 4 and specifically the depth of the front 4. LB’s have been fine and Kendricks is still playing this year. Anyone is upgrade over Barwin in the running game. Really think where the Eagles have an advantage is their front 4 versus the Vikings O-line. They need to continue to shut down the run and get pressure with the front 4.

    The matchups that scare me as an Eagles fan are Jalen Mills vs Stefon Diggs and Everson Griffin vs Vaitai. Good luck on Sunday. Either way I’ll be pulling for the NFC is the Super Bowl if it is against the Patriots.

  • johnfoster8

    One source of Felger on Brady. He cut his knuckle on a helmet and got four stitches. There is no ligament damage.

  • Razzle11

    @Stewburtx8 said...

    The Eagles LB’s are not really the reason that they’ve been so good against the run. It’s the front 4 and specifically the depth of the front 4. LB’s have been fine and Kendricks is still playing this year. Anyone is upgrade over Barwin in the running game. Really think where the Eagles have an advantage is their front 4 versus the Vikings O-line. They need to continue to shut down the run and get pressure with the front 4.

    The matchups that scare me as an Eagles fan are Jalen Mills vs Stefon Diggs and Everson Griffin vs Vaitai. Good luck on Sunday. Either way I’ll be pulling for the NFC is the Super Bowl if it is against the Patriots.

    I was referring to against the pass. Barwin and Hicks played big roles in that game last year, as did Nolan Carroll.

    Which is why I was pointing out that using last year’s game to predict how its going to go this year is kind of a mute point. The wind as well as the players that made the difference. Also pointing out that MIN’s O-Line is as bad as it was last year, which is NOT the case. I’ve already shown the #s to compare last year vs this year.

    Individual wise there are definitely match-ups that are worrisome from both teams. E.Griffin vs Vaitai, S.Diggs and A.Thielen vs Mills and Darby. Any pass rusher lined up vs R.Hill. I am also a little worried about T.Smith vs T.Waynes. I expect the Vikings to line up the TE on Hill’s side a lot, whether it be chips with Rudolph or max pro with Morgan being on the field on that spot.

    I just don’t see the sudden hate against Keenum. He’s proven it all season and its suddenly like he’s going to hit a complete wall and be the undrafted QB again? Comparing situations in this, it’s EXTREMELY tough to tell me that Foles, who was close to being benched even after Wentz went down, is the QB youd pick to win this game over Keenum who ranked to highly all season long.

    I am definitely glad the weather isnt expected to have much to say in either game this weekend as I want to see pure football played, especially with so much on the line. I will definitely have exposure to Philly’s D, as I build a ton of lineups and would be nuts to not have some exposure. I mean hell, I am going to have some Jacksonville shares as well.

  • Stewburtx8

    • 2012 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    @Razzle11 said...

    I just don’t see the sudden hate against Keenum. He’s proven it all season and its suddenly like he’s going to hit a complete wall and be the undrafted QB again? Comparing situations in this, it’s EXTREMELY tough to tell me that Foles, who was close to being benched even after Wentz went down, is the QB youd pick to win this game over Keenum who ranked to highly all season long.

    Keenum’s been great all season. Could be that late bloomer type (think Rich Gannon). But I also am not scared of Case Keenum like I would have been facing Drew Brees. Keenum struggled last week when the Saints were able to pressure him. He has also had some of his worst games against better defenses (Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Carolina) and this is the best defense he has faced all season. I like the Eagles chances on that side of the ball as long as their front 4 continues to wreak havoc and they do not give up the big play in the secondary.

    What scares me is that the Vikings defense is probably slightly better than the Eagles. Foles is fine if they do not ask him to do too much. They have to be willing to run for 2 yards, run for 3 yards, incomplete short pass, punt. If they try to ask Foles to do too much, they aren’t going to win. I do agree they need to take a shot or two to Torrey Smith against Waynes. If there is a weakness on the Vikings defense, it’s Waynes. Unfortunately Torrey Smith is no longer a WR that can really take advantage of that.

    For the Eagles to win it needs to be a 16-13 or 17-14 type game. Turnovers as always will probably be the biggest factor.

  • Charliea

    I think I’m rolling the dice this week and fully fading Fournette. Im a Bills fan and we’re running on fumes for our defensive line and they were able to contain Fournette. I think the Pittsburgh game was an outlier.

  • deactivated204643

    @Razzle11 said...

    Which is why I was pointing out that using last year’s game to predict how its going to go this year is kind of a mute point.

    You understand that NFL coaches and players watch film all the time, right? They watch film from last year every freaking week. Unless you’re a Vikings fan, and it sure sounds like you are, you need to step back and read all my posts on the topic instead of cherry picking. I haven’t given any prediction on the outcome of the game. Players matter, yes, so do coaching staffs and schemes. If you don’t think both MIN & PHI haven’t watched the tape from last year, well, I don’t know what to tell you.

  • Charliea

    And I don’t care about that Tom Brady thing. Those press conferences are stupid. “So what did you eat for lunch today?” “Lunch is definitely something that happens. A lot of people eat lunch.”

  • Razzle11

    @bluebroker said...

    You understand that NFL coaches and players watch film all the time, right? They watch film from last year every freaking week. Unless you’re a Vikings fan, and it sure sounds like you are, you need to step back and read all my posts on the topic instead of cherry picking. I haven’t given any prediction on the outcome of the game. Players matter, yes, so do coaching staffs and schemes. If you don’t think both MIN & PHI haven’t watched the tape from last year, well, I don’t know what to tell you.

    I didnt say they don’t at all….you’ve pointed at how last year’s game ended up and then saying you do not understand all the hype Minnesota is getting. You then also made a point that last year’s oline is no worse than this years, then referring back to that game last year…..

    I pointed out that this years oline, is, in fact better than last year’s

  • Razzle11

    Schemes matter more so than individual match-ups do because schemes have the ability to negate positive/negative match-ups. I have a ton of respect for PFF and how they grade every single game/situation. Reiff at #60, somebody who has given up 3.5 sacks on the season while committing zero accepted holding penalties. I would like to see the 59 ranked ahead of him.

    O-Lines are not about specific one on one match-ups as many have blocking schemes that affect all match-ups. Like I have pointed out, the big on is Hill. He is extremely worrisome however I do believe he will get some help via chips from TE’s/RB’s and double team help from a TE.

    I think it’s a mistake to just take PFF grades as the number they are without actually looking into it. For being such a low graded out O-Line, being 7th in fewest sacks allowed is pretty telling

  • richierich

    @bluebroker said...

    You understand that NFL coaches and players watch film all the time, right? They watch film from last year every freaking week. Unless you’re a Vikings fan, and it sure sounds like you are, you need to step back and read all my posts on the topic instead of cherry picking. I haven’t given any prediction on the outcome of the game. Players matter, yes, so do coaching staffs and schemes. If you don’t think both MIN & PHI haven’t watched the tape from last year, well, I don’t know what to tell you.

    Coaches might watch a little bit of last year’s film. Individual players may choose to, if they have the same matchup. However, it’s not extremely relevant. Team units will not watch the film of that game as a whole. There are so many different variables in this game. Two different starting QB’s, WR’s are different and even a good chunk defensive personnel.

    Way too much being being read into that game from this thread.

    Also, whatever little bit may be looked into from that game last year from a coaching staff. It’s not very relevant to us as DFS players. For the reasons stated above. Totally different skill position players, which is all that matters to us.

  • deactivated204643

    @Razzle11 said...

    You then also made a point that last year’s oline is no worse than this years, then referring back to that game last year…..

    I pointed out that this years oline, is, in fact better than last year’s

    Apparently you don’t believe in PFF grades like 30 of 32 teams in the NFL do. I never mentioned how last years game ended, not who won, not the score. I don’t understand the MIN hype. They are not a dominant offense by any standards. They have a journeyman QB who has played the best football of his career this season. They have two average to slightly above average RB’s. They just played a HOME playoff game which without a miracle finish they would have lost and that was against an average DL from NO. The point I’ve been driving home is that MIN OL is not very good and PHI D line is. The stats bear that out. Does that mean PHI is going to win? Fuck no, I never said anything of the kind. I’m saying if MIN OL can’t contain Graham & Cox, Keenum COULD be in for a long day. He’s prone to trying to make something out of nothing when his protection breaks down. Don’t believe me, watch his tape from this year including the second half vs NO. In particular he loves to throw that 20-30 yard corner route to the boundaries and if I know it you can damn well bet PHI knows it too. So in my not so humble opinion one of the keys to this game will be how MIN OL can handle PHI DL.

    There’s no shame in being a Vikings fan…well maybe just a little…moving on

  • deactivated204643

    @richierich said...

    Coaches might watch a little bit of last year’s film. Individual players may choose to, if they have the same matchup. However, it’s not extremely relevant. Team units will not watch the film of that game as a whole. There are so many different variables in this game. Two different starting QB’s, WR’s are different and even a good chunk defensive personnel.

    Way too much being being read into that game from this thread.

    Also, whatever little bit may be looked into from that game last year from a coaching staff. It’s not very relevant to us as DFS players. For the reasons stated above. Totally different skill position players, which is all that matters to us.

    No! No one, including me is reading too much of anything into that tape except those of you who can’t concentrate long enough to read more than one sentence! I don’t give a fuck what anyone believes but I do care when things I write are taken out of context.

  • deactivated204643

    @bluebroker said...

    No one stat or game tape tells you everything. We all know it’s a puzzle we go about solving differently.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @bluebroker said...

    No! No one, including me is reading too much of anything into that tape except those of you who can’t concentrate long enough to read more than one sentence! I don’t give a fuck what anyone believes but I do care when things I write are taken out of context.

    Easy Big Fella. Can’t we all just get along. Small slate in DFS, big tension on this thread.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    Easy Big Fella. Can’t we all just get along. Small slate in DFS, big tension on this thread.

    No #‘s to crunch, everything done, you all must be bored and picking fights.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    No #‘s to crunch, everything done, you all must be bored and picking fights.

    Such a small slate, so many big GPP ties for first

  • deactivated204643

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    Easy Big Fella. Can’t we all just get along. Small slate in DFS, big tension on this thread.

    There is nothing I despise more than people twisting my thoughts and words. If I liked that sort of thing I’d get married again.

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