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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    3:05 PM EST : Tennessee ( 7.5 ) at Kansas City ( -7.5 ) —- T: 51.5
    6:40 PM EST : Green Bay ( 7 ) at San Francisco ( -7 ) —- T: 45

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • BIF

    @DC2380 said...

    Wow – Luke Keuchly retiring

    Good for him and the rest of the NFC South – ha ha !

    8 seasons 7 Pro Bowls – that impressive

  • 33BeRad

    @DC2380 said...

    Wow – Luke Keuchly retiring

    He probably has had enough concussions. He’s so good, shame to see him go but good for him if he wants to get out while healthy(ish)

  • 33BeRad

    Here’s a totally useless yet interesting fact. Andy Reid is 0-4 vs the Titans over the past 5 years. 2 years ago Tenn did knock them out of the playoffs.

  • mike42

    @33BeRad said...

    He probably has had enough concussions. He’s so good, shame to see him go but good for him if he wants to get out while healthy(ish)

    It is a good thing for him and I’d guess there is a woman ( a good one) behind the decision. I’ll never forget after one of his concussions on MNF he started crying while he was still laying on the field. Also, not exactly difficult to imagine CAR getting turned around and/or Luke missing the game so much that he decides to come back. That guy has probably spent close to a 100 hours a week focusing on the game for most of the year and he doesn’t strike me as the golfing type. It would be kind of hard to imagine LUKE (and maybe LUCK) not coming back until they don’t come back. Body heals up, they feel good, they realize that they love their wives (GF’s) more when they don’t see them as much, etc….

  • mike42

    @BIF said...

    Like KC to win so just teased it – I feel like Tenn is due for a letdown but KC is a decent matchup for them; well at least for the Tenn offense against KC defense. I think KC will move the ball ok the other way with crossing routes and speed. The over might be a play here

    You like the under in SF at all? If C. Jones is out and I would like the over in KC more but as of now, no real feeling, but I have already taken the under in SF/GB. I was at the sportsbook when KC -7/51 was on the board but I didn’t take either bets.

  • squidkill

    I see KC playing Def like NE did. Give Henry anything he wants but lock down the passing game. Worked great for NE. Only difference is KC can score more than 13 points and will.

  • joephoto

    Maybe Luke does come back, it will probably be under a minimum contract, and not the one he is forfeiting now though. I think I read 26 mil- 2 more yrs ?

  • bcandrws

    @squidkill said...

    I see KC playing Def like NE did. Give Henry anything he wants but lock down the passing game. Worked great for NE. Only difference is KC can score more than 13 points and will.

    If KC is able to score at will they may use the game plane that if they can’t stop him just put alot of points up so TN has to go away from Henry

  • rog11sm

    I know past results don’t always result in future performances but doesn’t Tennessee already have a game plan on how to beat Kansas City since I think they already did it earlier in the year.
    Henry ran for 180 yards and two touchdowns in that game also.
    I think this game is going to be a lot closer than people think. I would take the over.

  • bcandrws

    @rog11sm said...

    I know past results don’t always result in future performances but doesn’t Tennessee already have a game plan on how to beat Kansas City since I think they already did it earlier in the year.
    Henry ran for 180 yards and two touchdowns in that game also.
    I think this game is going to be a lot closer than people think. I would take the over.

    The texans beat KC earlier this year too, but we saw how that turned out.

  • rog11sm

    @bcandrws said...

    The texans beat KC earlier this year too, but we saw how that turned out.

    I don’t know who will win but if betting I would take the over.
    KC might cover it themselves.
    I think Williams didn’t play that game the first time and McCoy was the lead back.
    Not taking anything away from KC but Houston got out coached on top of being outplayed in the playoff game.

  • Hoods From The Wood

    @rog11sm said...

    I don’t know who will win but if betting I would take the over.
    KC might cover it themselves.
    I think Williams didn’t play that game the first time and McCoy was the lead back.
    Not taking anything away from KC but Houston got out coached on top of being outplayed in the playoff game.

    Williams played first game, 109 total yds, 5 catches, 1 lost fumble

  • rog11sm

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    Williams played first game, 109 total yds, 5 catches, 1 lost fumble

    I was referring to the Houston game/ sorry I thought he was out.

  • nam6641

    • x2

      2016 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    Fading D Henry and going in on Titans passing game? If KC jumps out to a lead how long do Titans stick to game plan before they abandon and air it out?

  • BIF

    @mike42 said...

    You like the under in SF at all? If C. Jones is out and I would like the over in KC more but as of now, no real feeling, but I have already taken the under in SF/GB. I was at the sportsbook when KC -7/51 was on the board but I didn’t take either bets.

    Haven’t really touched any totals since about Week 15-16

  • antzilla810

    I want as many pieces to that KC game as possible. Hill got targeted 19 times in that 1st game they played.

  • antzilla810

    Could go Mahomes, Kelce, Hill, KC defense but would have to fade Henry. Don’t think I can do that.

  • DC2380

    @nam6641 said...

    Fading D Henry and going in on Titans passing game? If KC jumps out to a lead how long do Titans stick to game plan before they abandon and air it out?

    I was thinking the same.

  • bcandrws

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    Williams played first game, 109 total yds, 5 catches, 1 lost fumble

    It was a costly fumble because TN ran out back for a TD. The cheifs used 3 backs that game. They used both Williams and Thompson. Mahomes was also not fully healthy

  • mike42

    I think Henry is more of a sure thing than anyone else. The answer is it would take world war 3 for TEN to abandon the running game early. They just won’t do it to the point where I’m not sure it’s worth talking about. Even if it’s 35-3 at halftime, Henry would get touches on TEN’s opening second half drive facing a D that should be making a lot of business decisions at that point and have 6 in the box. Barring injury, Henry gets 20 plus touches and don’t forget that KC is vulnerable to pass catching backs and TEN will absolutely use him that way because KC has been exceptionally good Vs WR’s. They tried it Vs Balt but Balt stopped it. I’d guess Henry actually has 2 plus catches and at least 1 for a chunk play or better. Honestly think he gets 5 pl;us points in the receiving game based on this setup and their insistence on putting the ball in his hands no matter what. He REALLY should be good for 20 touches, 100 yds and enough receiving work to matter. I rewatched that last game and Tannehil looked bad for the most part and just made a few plays. They can’t put the game in his hands unless it’s a 4 score game late in the third quarter type thing which is basically more of a longshot than most of us think it is.

    Mahomes could not hit the 300 yd bonus because TEN plays slow and he doesn’t always hit it anyway. KC could also get a couple of non-passing TD’s (rushing, D, ST’s) on the way to 23- 27 points or so, leaving Mahomes with just 1 TD. TEN can play more zone and limit his rushing yards after watching HOus play man almost exclusively and get screwed by Mahomes in every possible way. I “think” the odds of him scoring 20ish are a lot higher than the odds of Henry not scoring 20ish. Also, think the odds of another QB hitting 20 ish are better than the odds of 2 RB’s outside of Henry hitting that mark. The other QB’s are at a bigger discount in percentage terms than the other main RB’s are to Henry, which makes pivoting off of him harder to justify. Injuries happen and I’m sure some WR/RB will go down this week but outside of that, what exactly are you hoping for in order to justify fading Henry? It’s soooooooooo hard to stop him in the red zone or stop him from getting 3-4 yards or from getting at least 1 big run.

    If I had to guess today, I think I’m 80% Henry and 60% Mahomes. Tannehill might have a chance to even outscore Mahomes and all you have to do is look at his numbers since he’s been starting from game to game to think the same. The matchup is bad but take away a stud safety and an all-pro pass rushing DT and it gets better. Jimmy G is streaky with a high ceiling in a bad matchup but I think GB focuses on the run and makes him beat them which is a plus. I don’t want any AR even though I think he might have a decent real-life game.

    AT RB, AJ is underpriced for what we now know amounts to the D. Cook role in GB’s O given J. Williams limited usage last week. The differences being more TD equity, an O-line that is more suited to deal with SF’s front 4 and a few less touches. Mostert jumped out at me, but AR is the guy that has grown on me as the week has gone on. If this were the regular season and we knew that he was getting essentially all of the work, at $6700, he would probably be popular. Having zero bellcow A. Jones feels like a mistake. The weakness of athletic D-lines/front 7’s is they tend to get worn down later in games by good/big O-lines IF an O can stick to the running game and win TOP. Totally possible and in all likelihood, the game plan for GB. DWILL getting all of the work for a team that is seemingly always pass-heavy in a bad rushing matchup, but a good receiving one, at 7k, seems fairly priced. I also think having one K. Juszcyk LU just because he might get you some points and mostly because he will give you a different roster construction is worth a shot.

    TE-Sometimes you turn on a game and you realzie some secondary player is a major part of the O, J. Smith is my pick to be that guy. He has the best matchup in the passing game and KC lost it’s athletic safety and replaced him with one that isn’t. J. SMith athletically looks like an all-pro waiting to happen. D. Fells is just a big dude with zero athleticism. Also, I rewatched the all 22 on that KC game and Fells was the guy KC didn’t focus on, he was absolutely wide open on a lot of occasions and Watson was just not looking his way. It was brutal at times with Watson literally running in circles waiting to get sacked and no one within 15 yds of Fells. Honestly, Watson is not nearly as good as Mahommes. A lot of his highlight real plays are plays where he just didn’t make the right read, and so are a lot of his sacks. You know KC will focus on AJ Brown and Henry, I think play action to Smith is going to be a big part of TEN’s game plan. If you think about it, nobody on KC matches up with him. Honey badger is too small and they won’t use him on Smith. Sorenson is too slow. KC’s LB’s to a man, suck in coverage. I’m going way over on him and at 3400, I think he’s the sharpest way to pay up elsewhere.

  • DC2380

    no love for adam humphries???

  • Kamais_Ookin

    So how many hundreds or thousands of dollars are you guys putting on Henry’s over 106.5 rushing yards prop in your local sportsbook? It’s available at bet365 now.

  • odanny

    I don’t see how you can fade Tyreek Hill and Kittle this Sunday.

    That is all.

  • 33BeRad

    @odanny said...

    I don’t see how you can fade Tyreek Hill and Kittle this Sunday.

    That is all.

    Everyone is fadeable and playable if you tell yourself the right story. And since we cannot actually tell the future I can see paths to fading both of them. Just look at last week for why you can fade both.

    Side note. Both of them are in my single entry lineup. I told myself a different story.

  • odanny

    @33BeRad said...

    Side note. Both of them are in my single entry lineup. I told myself a different story.

    You have learned well, Grasshopper. Go in peace.

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