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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Saturday, 1/13
    4:35 PM EST : Atlanta ( -2.5 ) at Philadelphia ( 2.5 ) —- T: 41.5
    8:15 PM EST : Tennessee ( 13.5 ) at New England ( -13.5 ) —- T: 47

    Sunday, 1/14
    1:05 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 7.5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -7.5 ) —- T: 41
    4:40 PM EST : New Orleans ( 3.5 ) at Minnesota ( 0 ) —- T: 45

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these weekly threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    @richierich said...

    I am a Bears fan dude. lol

    “Why is Tennessee a very, very poor playoff team?”

    I am glad you asked. Let’s run down the list of reasons.

    - They finished 21st in the league, according to SRS (simple rating system). Which takes into account things like your point differential, strength of schedule, strength of victory… etc… to determine your actual value among the rest of the league.

    - They have a -22 point differential. One of only a couple dozen teams in the history of the NFL, to make the post-season with a negative point-differential (not including the strike-season expanded playoffs).

    - Expected W-L – this is an estimate of what the team’s record “should have been,” given the team’s points scored and allowed. The concept goes back to baseball analyst Bill James’ Pythagorean formula.

    Tennessee Titans Expected W-L: 7.4 – 8.6

    - Not only did they put together a season with a win-expectancy of seven games. They did so against the 30th worst strength of schedule in the NFL.

    T-30 Tennessee Titans .439
    T-30 Jacksonville Jaguars .439
    32 Indianapolis Colts .424

    As you can see, this entire division is essentially near the bottom of the SOS chart. Why? This entire division is pretty f’ing brutal, and the reason why Tennessee finished with 9 wins. Is essentially because SOMEBODY had to win their inter-divisional battles.

    As you may expect, this rings true when you look over their schedule in it’s entirety.

    vs AFC South: 5-1
    vs other AFC: 3-3
    vs NFC West: 1-3

    In other words…

    Versus their division: 5-1
    Outside of their division: 4-6

    - The generosity of both their division and schedule, likely means that in reality… their expected W-L is even worse than the “7.4 wins” total given by the formula.

    - Let’s look at who they beat.

    The Titans beat only one post-season team. Which was, in fact, a team from their own division. The Jacksonville Jaguars.

    Against other post-season teams, they were 0-2 (Steelers and Rams).

    The average W-L record of their opponents with which they defeated? 6.2 – 9.8

    All of the above metrics, are some of the worst for a post-season team in the 12 team post-season era. It puts them squarely in the conversation for one of the worst ever. You know who else is HORRID in these metrics? The Bills (23rd SRS). This tends to happen more than you’d think. Two teams being some of the worst playoff teams, getting in together. This comes as a result of a very weak conference, which lacks depth.

    I now rest my case.

    Good argument. Well thought out. Can’t argue with it other than a feeling that the Patriots aren’t quite the team they used to be and the Titans are peaking somewhat.

    Oh and the Titans beat two post-season teams. :)

  • deactivated204643

    @richierich said...

    I now rest my case.

    As I’m finally going to bed you lay this in my lap? Lmao, great work, I mean that sincerely.

    I want to make clear once and for all; I haven’t been touting a single TEN player as a core play. All I’ve tried to do was give a reasonable argument as to a path for success for them, I think Hazy did the same thing. I think the link I posted reiterated that. Brady will likely be one of my two most owned QB. I’m well aware of who TEN has been all season. I think everyone would do well to understand that the playoffs are not regular season, it’s a different game. Like the NBA or MLB, there’s almost always a team that comes from nowhere because they radically change their season long tendencies. Mariota running a lot CAN be a big deal, not just for rushing stats but for the way it alters their offense and the NE defense. I’m not basing this on the TEN coaching staff being smart, what faith I have is rooted in Mariota’s athleticism. Playoff gameplans are usually more specific/specialized. Regular season is checkers, this is chess. For the time being, despite your much appreciated and thoughtful research, I think TEN keeps this close. Hell, I hope they keep it close so Brady scores more points.

  • dgballer

    @squidkill said...

    Impossible. Lots of local blackouts in the 1980’s and early 1990’s. Nobody watched every game. Pat patriot

    Haha you got me squid. I should have said every televised game. And there were plenty i wished i didn’t see. They had some horrendous teams before Kraft bought them

  • Falconsfly

    @squidkill said...

    NBA dfs has me insane. Can’t wait till Saturday

    Same

  • mike42

    @bluebroker said...

    As I’m finally going to bed you lay this in my lap? Lmao, great work, I mean that sincerely.

    I want to make clear once and for all; I haven’t been touting a single TEN player as a core play. All I’ve tried to do was give a reasonable argument as to a path for success for them, I think Hazy did the same thing. I think the link I posted reiterated that. Brady will likely be one of my two most owned QB. I’m well aware of who TEN has been all season. I think everyone would do well to understand that the playoffs are not regular season, it’s a different game. Like the NBA or MLB, there’s almost always a team that comes from nowhere because they radically change their season long tendencies. Mariota running a lot CAN be a big deal, not just for rushing stats but for the way it alters their offense and the NE defense. I’m not basing this on the TEN coaching staff being smart, what faith I have is rooted in Mariota’s athleticism. Playoff gameplans are usually more specific/specialized. Regular season is checkers, this is chess. For the time being, despite your much appreciated and thoughtful research, I think TEN keeps this close. Hell, I hope they keep it close so Brady scores more points.

    Anything can happen in any game. No reason anyone should feel bad about playing any TEN players Vs the NE D. I can see 55 points scored this game and TEN getting enough of it to have some players in the winning LU. I don’t think so, but I definitely see the angle to be overexposed in some LU’s to this game especially considering how difficult it is to project the other 3 games being shootouts. If you just think in terms of D, this is the game to focus on since both D’s have obvious weaknesses that can be exploited.

    EDIT: I’m definitely rethinking this game, I’m not sure if keeping it close matters as much as does TEN put up 20 plus. 37-21 with a backdoor TD isn’t a close game but would be a game filled with more fantasy goodness than the other 3. I don’t see how TEN stops NE’s O when Brady had 2 weeks to focus on water consumption, but NE’s D could give up a lot of DK points.

  • dgballer

    @mike42 said...

    Anything can happen in any game. No reason anyone should feel bad about playing any TEN players Vs the NE D. I can see 55 points scored this game and TEN getting enough of it to have some players in the winning LU. I don’t think so, but I definitely see the angle to be overexposed in some LU’s to this game especially considering how difficult it is to project the other 3 games being shootouts. If you just think in terms of D, this is the game to focus on since both D’s have obvious weaknesses that can be exploited.

    I completely agree. This years Pats team is vulnerable in many areas. Even If they make it to the super bowl i think they very well could lose to a team with a top defense

  • squidkill

    Be sure to check the weather this week. 3 outdoor games. some shaky weather in the NE as usual

  • squidkill

    I don’t bet games, but man if I can get Jags getting 7.5 damn !! sign me up

    How far away from when I can go to the Quicki mart and get my LOTTO ticket and be able to place a 3 team parlay bet? 3 years? 5 years? more?

  • bignish

    @mike42 said...

    When I used to bet games this round was my favorite because recency bias is so strong and usually wrong. Everyone watched a crappy team beat a choke artist and forgot a much better team was home chilling. I’ve been saying the Titans are overrated since before they played ARZ and still think they suck. They have a simple offense with a below average QB running it and it doesn’t require a genius to stop it. Their pass D is poor vs RB’s, TE’s and WR’s and Brady should be able to complete 5-10 yd passes to wide open guys all day vs it before exotic blitzes get to him. Hint: That will be the game plan and it will work early and often with no second half choke job this time.

    I don’t even mind Brady naked just because everyone will be open, no reason to pass to a potentially double covered Gronk in the red zone when 1 or 2 guys should be WIDE OPEN the whole game. I’m sorry, this really should not be a game according to everything we know about the Titans and Pats and this is coming from the original “this is the end of the Pats dynasty” theorist.

    Both pit and NE smash this week in different ways. Everyone talking about how tough it’s going to be on the leagues best O facing Jax and its jax’s O that’s in trouble. Bortles is much more likely to look like week 5 Ben than playoff Ben is. Excited about this weekend, I love when everyone is split.

    I’m starting to buy into what Hazy is saying more and more as I think about this game. Mariota and Henry are going to try to pound the Patriots in the run game and keep Brady off the field as much as possible. The Patriots are more than happy to concede short catches and runs so that combined with the Titans slow pace of play should keep them within striking distance of the Patriots at all times.

    When you consider that Mariota is likely to have 40-50 rushing yards this game because of the Patriots’ man coverage scheme and the price difference between him and Brady, you really need Brady to outscore Mariota by 3 TDs to really sink your lineup. Mariota should be able to rack up yards in garbage time to meet or exceed the 300 threshold so I see the yardage differential as being negligible.

    So Mariota over Brady in Cash?? Hmmm.

  • BIF

    @richierich said...

    IMO, NE goes into the half with a 3-4 TD lead. Without much issue either. Then it just becomes garbage time, which is what puts Mariota in play for me.

    Don’t play garbage time QBs – you want the winning team QB who threw the 3-4 TD passes to get in front. Garbage time QBs also throw INTs and get sacked leading to fumbles.

    Do play garbage time WRs and pass catching RBs

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    Tenn didn’t advance to this round because of Kelce’s injury. They didn’t advance because of one of the flukiest plays in NFL history. They advanced because of Andy Reids total misuse of one of the better pass catching RB’s in the league, not just in this game but most of the year. They advanced because Mularkey was smart enough to ride his only horse(Henry) while Reid left his other 2 non Kelce horses(Hunt+Hill) in the stable. I’m pretty sure Belichick won’t be outcoached like Reid was. If it wasn’t for Reid, Mularkey’s out of a job. I think that deserves at least a big thank you very much box of Omaha steaks

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @BIF said...

    Don’t play garbage time QBs – you want the winning team QB who threw the 3-4 TD passes to get in front. Garbage time QBs also throw INTs and get sacked leading to fumbles.

    Do play garbage time WRs and pass catching RBs

    Pretty sure the only pass catching back on Tenn is Mariota

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    Tenn didn’t advance to this round because of Kelce’s injury. They didn’t advance because of one of the flukiest plays in NFL history. They advanced because of Andy Reids total misuse of one of the better pass catching RB’s in the league, not just in this game but most of the year. They advanced because Mularkey was smart enough to ride his only horse(Henry) while Reid left his other 2 non Kelce horses(Hunt+Hill) in the stable. I’m pretty sure Belichick won’t be outcoached like Reid was. If it wasn’t for Reid, Mularkey’s out of a job. I think that deserves at least a big thank you very much box of Omaha steaks

    I definitely do not disagree that Andy Reid is a horrible coach. Mularkey’s not much better but I think the Titans will keep it close enough to make Titans players (especially Mariota) DFS viable.

  • johnfoster8

    Watch out for the Jags this week. A team that won by 20 during the regular season are 14-2 during the playoff rematch.

  • richierich

    @BIF said...

    Don’t play garbage time QBs – you want the winning team QB who threw the 3-4 TD passes to get in front. Garbage time QBs also throw INTs and get sacked leading to fumbles.

    Do play garbage time WRs and pass catching RBs

    The volume that garbage time QB’s get, very often leads to good outings. I’ve followed Blake Bortles career enough to know this. lol

    I don’t think you have metrics which would support this assertion.

    I agree, I’d rather play Brady. However, he’s a good deal more, in the way of salary. I am still debating it.

  • richierich

    @johnfoster8 said...

    Watch out for the Jags this week. A team that won by 20 during the regular season are 14-2 during the playoff rematch.

    I like the Jags, but typically… a team who won by 20 in a regular season matchup is head/shoulders better than their opponent. That’s simply not the case here.

    I hope to see them win, as I give them the best shot at knocking off Brady/NE. However, I am losing faith after the past few weeks.

  • richierich

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    Tenn didn’t advance to this round because of Kelce’s injury. They didn’t advance because of one of the flukiest plays in NFL history. They advanced because of Andy Reids total misuse of one of the better pass catching RB’s in the league, not just in this game but most of the year. They advanced because Mularkey was smart enough to ride his only horse(Henry) while Reid left his other 2 non Kelce horses(Hunt+Hill) in the stable. I’m pretty sure Belichick won’t be outcoached like Reid was. If it wasn’t for Reid, Mularkey’s out of a job. I think that deserves at least a big thank you very much box of Omaha steaks

    I would respond by saying…

    A) Kelce was shredding that D to pieces, and opening up the entire field for the KC passing game. As Tennessee was making such a concerted effort to contain him. Yet, still failing. If he does not go down, they post 30+ and win without issue. IMO

    B) It doesn’t matter whose number you call on offense in any given second half, if you only run 7 3rd quarter plays. Then only five 4th quarter plays, before their last drive. Where they more or less had to throw the ball. They could not convert on a 3rd down, without their most reliable 3rd down target.

    C) The game-plan was to attack Tennessee’s weakness, which is their very poor secondary. This game-plan proved to be extremely effective with Kelce on the field. Without him, not so much. Nobody complained about the game-plan when they shredded the Titans for 21 first half points.

    The loss does not fall squarely on one person or injury. However, I would venture to guess that had Kelce stayed healthy. He goes for another 5-6 catches, another 60-70+ yards and possibly another TD. I don’t think we’re sitting here talking about Andy Reid. I get the feeling we’d be sitting here talking about which Chiefs are in play for our LU’s… instead of Titans.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    I hate to agree with you. I don’t want to seem anti-NE and open myself to the venomous posts from the Pat fans in this thread. But based on price I think Mariota’s gonna return more value than Brady (sorry Squid)

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @thehazyone said...

    I definitely do not disagree that Andy Reid is a horrible coach. Mularkey’s not much better but I think the Titans will keep it close enough to make Titans players (especially Mariota) DFS viable.

    My last post was in response to you Hazy. Methinks Ritchie should put the bottle down and pass it around. There are no metrics that can definitively say what WOULD have been, only what COULD have been. And the Pythagorean theorem should be credited to the ancient Greek mathematician Pythagoras. Pretty sure Bill James plagiarized it

  • handoftheking

    I’m surprised to not see a “Main” tourney slate that covers all weekend, am I in the minority here? Fanduel, I mean.

  • deactivated204643

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    And the Pythagorean theorem should be credited to the ancient Greek mathematician Pythagoras. Pretty sure Bill James plagiarized it

    Well played sir

  • jdogg7811

    @richierich said...

    I like the Jags, but typically… a team who won by 20 in a regular season matchup is head/shoulders better than their opponent. That’s simply not the case here.

    I hope to see them win, as I give them the best shot at knocking off Brady/NE. However, I am losing faith after the past few weeks.

    Maybe somewhat biassed being a Pitt fan, but theres no way the Jags have a better shot of beating NE than the Steelers do. Though we lost by a bullshit call a couple weeks ago, we clearly outplayed them most of the game and had a better game script than the past. We have a great shot of making the SB if all fairs well with Jax Sunday.

  • MTro86

    RG Writer

    @handoftheking said...

    I’m surprised to not see a “Main” tourney slate that covers all weekend, am I in the minority here? Fanduel, I mean.

    Stopped playing NFL for a few months, but still have some FD points leftover. Was going to use them this weekend, but was so surprised to see this that I had to look here to confirm this and make sure I just didn’t forget how to do a proper slate search on the site. While money would be the obvious answer to why they’d do this, I can’t imagine it’s something most players want.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @jdogg7811 said...

    Maybe somewhat biassed being a Pitt fan, but theres no way the Jags have a better shot of beating NE than the Steelers do. Though we lost by a bullshit call a couple weeks ago, we clearly outplayed them most of the game and had a better game script than the past. We have a great shot of making the SB if all fairs well with Jax Sunday.

    Not biased at all(not a Pitt fan). I’m curious which metric says the Jags have a better chance to beat the Pats than the Steelers. Pass the F’n bottle already Richie, I’m thirsty

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    I know it’s not just about “raw points” and maybe I’m painting the picture with too broad of a brush but the Jag D seems to travel well. They’re averaging 8.4 DK pts at home and 18 on the road. Their 5 highest scoring games were on the road. And doesn’t cold weather, gonna feel like single digits on the field, favor the D’s

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