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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Saturday, 1/11
    4:35 PM EST : Minnesota ( 6.5 ) at San Francisco ( -6.5 ) —- T: 45
    8:15 PM EST : Tennessee ( 8 ) at Baltimore ( -8 ) —- T: 47

    Sunday, 1//12
    3:05 PM EST : Houston ( 10 ) at Kansas City ( -10 ) —- T: 49
    6:40 PM EST : Seattle ( 4 ) at Green Bay ( -4 ) —- T: 46

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • bcandrws

    @Dunzor said...

    I think Sea GB is my favorite stack so far as I agree that it will be a closer game than most of the other matchups and Russ/Rodgers have the most playoff experience so I think they keep the offenses moving

    The problem is it’s probably gonna be the most popular game to stack with the closest spread, but maybe too many people feel they have to stack Bal or KC and maybe it goes a bit underowned

    So do you think some of the games won’t be close? I was thinking maybe the Baltimore game is lopsided and honestly also the SF/minny game if the defense is completely healthy

  • bcandrws

    @Dunzor said...

    I think Sea GB is my favorite stack so far as I agree that it will be a closer game than most of the other matchups and Russ/Rodgers have the most playoff experience so I think they keep the offenses moving

    The problem is it’s probably gonna be the most popular game to stack with the closest spread, but maybe too many people feel they have to stack Bal or KC and maybe it goes a bit underowned

    When I think about it, the KC vs houston game may not be as close as people think based on the Bills should have actually beat the texans this past weekend

  • Dunzor

    @bcandrws said...

    When I think about it, the KC vs houston game may not be as close as people think based on the Bills should have actually beat the texans this past weekend

    I think Bal & SF probably win big but I think GB/Sea is close and while I think KC wins their game, I think the spread is too high especially if Fuller is active. While Houston is not a very good team, the one thing they can do is move the ball in garbage time as they just do not get blown out this year. 11 of their 16 games were decided by 1 score and they have a QB who loves playing up tempo when behind so if I could get my sports bets in (come on MA and move your ass on getting it legal) I would take Hou anything over +10 if I could.

  • BIF

    @bcandrws said...

    So do you think some of the games won’t be close? I was thinking maybe the Baltimore game is lopsided and honestly also the SF/minny game if the defense is completely healthy

    I think the only game within a TD is Seattle-GB

  • squidkill

    @Dunzor said...

    I think Bal & SF probably win big but I think GB/Sea is close and while I think KC wins their game, I think the spread is too high especially if Fuller is active. While Houston is not a very good team, the one thing they can do is move the ball in garbage time as they just do not get blown out this year. 11 of their 16 games were decided by 1 score and they have a QB who loves playing up tempo when behind so if I could get my sports bets in (come on MA and move your ass on getting it legal) I would take Hou anything over +10 if I could.

    Drive north or south sir. Get those bets in

  • mtdurham

    @bcandrws said...

    When I think about it, the KC vs houston game may not be as close as people think based on the Bills should have actually beat the texans this past weekend

    Houston is a relatively bad team. They ranked far below average In efficiency (tied with the Arizona cardinals yikes).

    They’re playing in arguably the toughest stadium in the league while KC is coming off a bye.

    Houston’s defense is awful, particularly against the pass where KC thrives offensively. Their only hope is that the weather is really bad and slows KC down.

    KC’s weakness is their rushing defense but houston isnt really equipped to take advantage of that.

    Deshaun Watson cant read a defense to save his life and hangs onto the ball an impossibly long time. He’s going to be out there on a lot of 3rd and long high leverage situations from all the sacks he takes and incompletions he throws. On a silent count nonetheless so kc’s blitz should find a home.

    Watsons real value comes late in games when he gets an extra down (to compensate for his low probability of success on individual plays) and the defense is worn down (so his ability to extend plays is of greater benefit). The problem is the game has to stay close for any of that to come into play.

    KC is the largest favorite on the slate with good reason.

    That said, we do seem to usually see 1 upset a year in the Divisional playoffs.

    I would not bet on this to be the one. Particularly if the weather is decent. (Projected 40 degrees and no participation).

    I’d take KC jumping out to an early 27-3 lead or so then houston padding their stats a bit after the game is already out of hand. KC 34 – Houston 17.

  • mike42

    @BIF said...

    #MeToo

    I bet SF -6 and then also teased SF to Seattle

    I was still at the sportsbook when they released lines and I had a good weekend so I threw most of it on SF. I’ve barely bet this year but I love going to sportsbooks for the playoff games. Glad you are on it too, I’m thinking of going back and adding on a bit because the number is starting to go up.

  • mike42

    @Dunzor said...

    I think Sea GB is my favorite stack so far as I agree that it will be a closer game than most of the other matchups and Russ/Rodgers have the most playoff experience so I think they keep the offenses moving

    The problem is it’s probably gonna be the most popular game to stack with the closest spread, but maybe too many people feel they have to stack Bal or KC and maybe it goes a bit underowned

    I wouldn’t think it would be the most popular, KC feels like the chalk this weekend or at least I thought they would be. Bring it back with a HOus WR or possibly Duke. For the life of me, I can’t figure out how they don’t give Duke more touches. I heard an interview with DUKE after the game where they were literally asking him about not gettting touches despite being the only guy gettting yards and he said something about Jesus Christ I think. Pretty sure Jesus wants him to get more touches.

    You can’t just run at KC anymore but I think Duke could give their LB’s some fits and Watson is going to need someone to dump it off to quickly because I’m pretty sure KC’s D-line will be in the backfield a lot.

  • mike42

    @bcandrws said...

    In regards to Seattle I’m not so sure. I have seen them get eat up by alot of running backs. Mostered scored 2 TD on them, drake had 2 TD on them, McCaffrey scored 2 TD on them, todd gurley who hadn’t done much all year had 21 Dk points on them, chubb had 2 TDs on them even TB running backs had 2 TDs on them. Maybe something I’m missing but that’s not good.

    You could be right and according to DVOA, you are right. It felt like at times this year SEA’s run D was it’s strength on D but I’m not dying on that hill.

  • mike42

    @BIF said...

    I think the only game within a TD is Seattle-GB

    I was going to ask you your feelings for this weekends slate and I don’t have to, we are on the same page. KC might be the best team in football if their D is what I think it is and SF/Balt are both a couple notches better than their opponents. On sports radio they have been talking about how good the games were this past weekend, all close, 2 OT games. Next weekend I think it’s just the opposite, total blowouts.

    Edit: You taking any first halves? I love KC in the first qtr and half. I might do a little on SF at half too but not much.

  • 33BeRad

    @BIF said...

    I think Seattle beats GB outright – Packers have been on the right side of a lot of good breaks and have the lowest point differential of any team that has gone 13-3 since the NFL went to a 16 game season. Seattle may have some issues and injuries but they are also battle tested and the NFL owes us a 3rd Seattle-San Fran matchup this year (they have split so far with road team winning each game and both games going down to the last play). The Pack already got blasted in SF once so we don’t need to see that again.

    The Pack should have lost both games to the Lions but iffy penalties allowed drives to continue and allow Pack to comeback and win both games. They also beat a Chiefs team by 7 with Matt Moore at QB during the brief time Mahomes was out. They could have easily been 10-6 and the 6 seed. As long as it isn’t windy, I think Russ can hit a couple deep balls and do enough to win another tight one.

    GB being a fraud is going to be a very popular take all week. But you know who else is? Seattle. They have won 11 games by 1 score. They could’ve easily missed the playoffs if a few games went the other way. They lost to Arizona at home and just barely beat Philly with McCown for most of the game. Yes, they have Russ but GB has Rodgers, who is pretty good at extending plays and has been here before too. I’ll give Russ the edge for how they are playing now but GB has a healthier and better all around team and they are at home. If I were close to a sports book I would bet GB 1st half. I’m not crazy to think Russ can’t do Russ things and win but I don’t think it is a lock.

  • mtdurham

    Baltimore is obviously a worthy favorite but Tennessee has paths to victory against the Ravens.

    While not quite as prolific as the Baltimore offense, Tennessee has a balanced attack that can keep you guessing. They’ve got a strong running game that can piece together long punishing drives and a man-child in AJ Brown that requires significant defensive attention. They also have a veteran QB that doesn’t make a lot of turnovers or take a lot of sacks.

    Tennessee has a strong base rushing defense and may be able to somewhat LIMIT the historically dominant baltimore rushing offense. We’ve already seen a team foil Lamar in the playoffs by running 7 defensive backs to contain him as a rusher. Credit baltimore for implementing power schemes on offense designed to punish these looks, but nagging injuries to Cark (thats mark with a ‘C’) Ingram and Mark Andrew’s could limit Baltimore’s ability to take advantage of some of those looks.

    A young QB and a team that strolled through the regular season could easily make a few mistakes early and work from behind for one of the few times this year.

    I’ll go 31-23 Ravens with my head but 27-23 Titans with my heart.

    (Titan Up!)

  • 33BeRad

    @mike42 said...

    I was still at the sportsbook when they released lines and I had a good weekend so I threw most of it on SF. I’ve barely bet this year but I love going to sportsbooks for the playoff games. Glad you are on it too, I’m thinking of going back and adding on a bit because the number is starting to go up.

    Minnesota has a tough turn around. After playing Sunday they flew back to Minny, now have to travel out to Cali for the first game Saturday. I really like SF def and Mostert stacks(Coleman will probably get 2tds and have 8yds). I might do one with Cousins for when they find themselves down big at half.

  • keephustlincuz

    @Dunzor said...

    I think Sea GB is my favorite stack so far as I agree that it will be a closer game than most of the other matchups and Russ/Rodgers have the most playoff experience so I think they keep the offenses moving

    The problem is it’s probably gonna be the most popular game to stack with the closest spread, but maybe too many people feel they have to stack Bal or KC and maybe it goes a bit underowned

    I think you are right about people stacking KC. My first builds were KC and run it back with duke and fells. The Seattle GB game stack.will go a bit underowned.

  • 33BeRad

    @mtdurham said...

    A young QB and a team that strolled through the regular season could easily make a few mistakes early and work from behind for one of the few times this year.

    I don’t know man, they finished the year Rams, vs SF, vs Bills, Jets, @Clev and then their backups against Pitt. Those are some good defenses they faced, they just made a lot of those teams look bad. I wouldn’t put Tenn defense with SF and Buff so I don’t know how they are going to stop them. Jets have a similar defense as Tenn(stronger against the rush than pass) and they got trounced.

  • mtdurham

    To me the Minnesota Vikings have the best chance to pull an upset this weekend.

    The vaunted San Francisco passing defense has fallen off mightily in recent weeks and looks somewhat vulnerable. Injuries have played a large part in the secondary and the once dominant defensive line play slipped slightly over the course of the year.

    The Vikings have a decent rushing attack and a duel threat in Dalvin Cook who had a few weeks off down the stretch to recuperate.

    Their passing attack is inconsistent due to the play of Kirk cousins but they have the type of WR in Adam thielen can neutralize the blitz with short crossing routes if he’s healthy for the first time in 1.5 years. They also have one of the best red zone/short yardage targets in the league in kyle Rudolph which is particularly important against SF’s elite short yardage defense.

    Defensively, Minnesota forced the 3rd highest turnover percentage in the league (trailing only pitt/NE) so the opportunity is absolutely there for them to make game changing plays. We’ve seen jimmy garropolo struggle at times with reads and make seemingly obvious mistakes. Heck, as early as this preseason we were wondering if he’d even be able to maintain his starting position thru the season.

    The 49ers are one of the slowest paced offenses in the league (particularly when trailing) which doesn’t bode well for their chances if they fall behind early. Their offense is relatively one dimensional (Kittle) and quite marginally effective for a team with such a strong record.

    I’ve seen plenty of first time playoff QBs falter and this sorta feels like this years “limped into the playoffs and came out flat after the week off” to me. It doesn’t hurt that the vikings QB/coaching staff has solid veteran experience and the vikings have maintained a fairly cohesive roster/coaching the past several years.

    I locked in the Vikings at +275 Moneyline already so I’ll go ahead and double down and say Vikings 23-20 here. I expect this game to be low scoring and have a low play total which is something I always look for in Moneyline upset plays.

  • mtdurham

    On paper the Seattle – Green Bay projects to be the most evenly matched game and that is reflected in the tightest spread on the slate.

    However, Seattle’s offense is paper machete right now with a plethora of injuries to their OL and surrounding playmakers. Russ Wilson of course comes into the game with a career record of 3-0 against the UNC Tarheels but I’m not sure that will come into play in Lambeau.

    Wilson is the kind of player who can be great when surrounded with strong line play but his height really comes into play if you can get pressure up the middle and keep him in obvious passing downs (particularly on the road).

    Green bay employs a bend but dont break defense and Seattle has lost multiple receiving threats, every viable rushing threat, and simply doesnt have a cohesive offensive line. This looks like a totally different team than it did only a few short weeks ago and they basically advanced off a long 53 yard ‘Earring Fairy’ touchdown and an dirty hit on the opposing QB. It’s hard to see Seattle maintaining drive consistency or making enough big plays to crack 24+ points in this matchup which really makes this game a question of how you think they will fare on the other side of the ball.

    Seattle’s biggest weakness of course is their inability to stop the run. Green Bays biggest strength of course is their ability to run the football. Gulp. You can see how that might come into play in a game expected to be played in weather in the 20’s.

    Its remarkable how efficient Green Bay’s offense has been this year if you’ve watched them play much this year. At first glance Aaron Rodgers stats are absolutely horrific (by his lofty standards) and if you’ve watched the Packers play you know that dropped passes, penalties, and miscommunications have resulted in a lot of blown 3rd downs and Red zone opportunities. They’ve left the most points on the field of any team IMO as far as their “expected points” given their talent and capabilities.

    Thankfully for Green Bay I don’t expect short yardage/red zone opportunities to play nearly as important of a factor as they project to operate with a significant field position advantage and the high volume of red zone/short yardage opportunities they generate vs the amount that Seattle is likely to generate will far offset any potential inefficiency differential between the teams.

    Seattle is also the most likely “Wheels fall off in the 2nd half” team on the slate IMO as I think you’ll really start to see Green Bays rushing offense assert their dominance against a defense that figures to be on the field a LOT in this matchup and didnt have the benefit of a bye last week.

    This is the team I feel most comfortable betting on this weekend vs the spread and my favorite home moneyline. (GBP -4, GBP -185)

    I’ll say Green Bay 26 – 18.

  • BIF

    @mike42 said...

    I was still at the sportsbook when they released lines and I had a good weekend so I threw most of it on SF. I’ve barely bet this year but I love going to sportsbooks for the playoff games. Glad you are on it too, I’m thinking of going back and adding on a bit because the number is starting to go up.

    Saw this online tonight not that you needed a reason to like SF more

    Since moving back indoors in 2016, the Minnesota Vikings are 0-13-1 SU and 1-12-1 ATS in road games, outdoors on grass against teams with a winning record

  • BIF

    @mike42 said...

    I was going to ask you your feelings for this weekends slate and I don’t have to, we are on the same page. KC might be the best team in football if their D is what I think it is and SF/Balt are both a couple notches better than their opponents. On sports radio they have been talking about how good the games were this past weekend, all close, 2 OT games. Next weekend I think it’s just the opposite, total blowouts.

    Edit: You taking any first halves? I love KC in the first qtr and half. I might do a little on SF at half too but not much.

    Heading to Mexico so just finishing packing – I won’t be doing anything else but I did just add a “double result” parlay of SF to KC. I like these double results on the games I think blowout as it is a cheaper way to get the ML lines on big favorites (you just need to win the 1st H as well).

    KC 1st H would be my favorite of all the 1st H lines at -5.5

  • BIF

    @33BeRad said...

    GB being a fraud is going to be a very popular take all week. But you know who else is? Seattle. They have won 11 games by 1 score. They could’ve easily missed the playoffs if a few games went the other way. They lost to Arizona at home and just barely beat Philly with McCown for most of the game. Yes, they have Russ but GB has Rodgers, who is pretty good at extending plays and has been here before too. I’ll give Russ the edge for how they are playing now but GB has a healthier and better all around team and they are at home. If I were close to a sports book I would bet GB 1st half. I’m not crazy to think Russ can’t do Russ things and win but I don’t think it is a lock.

    That is also a fair take – both teams are a bit of an enigma; I just like Seattle better for what they did versus SF (who I think is real good) where GB really hasn’t impressed me at any point his season – their win over Dallas was overvalued as the Cowboys aren’t that good, they beat a Chiefs team with no Mahomes, squeaked by with wins in some tight in-division games and were totally outclassed in SF. Seattle may be at/near their healthiest (RB’s aside) than they have been since early in season so timing might be good for their defense as they’ll need to stop A Jones.

  • Alvance83

    Been doing a little research and in the playoffs over the last 10 years something like 80% of the teams that win also cover the spread.

  • rourke441

    just this-seattle is 0-7 su alltime vs GB-i bet the packers ml at -185 also lamarr has to be kept off the field so i expect tenn. to run d.henry all day long-i bought a full pt. and bet tenn. plus 10.5

  • mike42

    @BIF said...

    That is also a fair take – both teams are a bit of an enigma; I just like Seattle better for what they did versus SF (who I think is real good) where GB really hasn’t impressed me at any point his season – their win over Dallas was overvalued as the Cowboys aren’t that good, they beat a Chiefs team with no Mahomes, squeaked by with wins in some tight in-division games and were totally outclassed in SF. Seattle may be at/near their healthiest (RB’s aside) than they have been since early in season so timing might be good for their defense as they’ll need to stop A Jones.

    That statement regarding health is only true if their O-line guys make returns this week and I have not seen anything to suggest that is going to happen. The matchup Vs GB’s front four gets a lot better if Brown/Lupati are in. Philly had a strong front but GB is a lot stronger in the secondary and might even be stronger up front or at least more disruptive.

    GB ususally matches up according to size outside, right? So King would be on Metcalf? Alexander on the third SEA wr? Not sure if they ever mix that up but this might be a good week to do so. Lockette in the slot Vs a 36 yr old is another good matchup even though T. Wiliams has played well this year.

    At TE you have to figure anyone not named Kelce/Kittle/Andrews will go under-owned this week. You should also see a lot of double TE LU’s. TE might be the biggest decision of the week with so many good possibilites to choose from at each price level and four of the worse 10 TE D’s playing this week (SEA, Hous, TEN, KC). Hollister sets up well too Vs a GB D that probably would be in the bottom 10 if they didn’t play the Bears and DET 2x each. The Bears didn’t have a TE hit a 100 yds total (for the entire season) which is pretty insane. The weeks with a lot of good TE setups are always the most messed up.

    SQUID- How would you feel if Brady played somewhere else next year? It seems like a real possibility and I think a lot of it has to do with him and BB butting heads for probably a while now.

  • mike42

    @rourke441 said...

    just this-seattle is 0-7 su alltime vs GB-i bet the packers ml at -185 also lamarr has to be kept off the field so i expect tenn. to run d.henry all day long-i bought a full pt. and bet tenn. plus 10.5

    This is usually a bad week to buy points. Like someone said, and I’ve seen this before, the winner covers pretty much every time. 10 is a bad number to buy points with too. It’s much less likely to land on 10 than 3 or 7.

  • ferrara316

    If Will Fuller is healthy and playing, Im locking in Watson all the way. He will easily match Mahomes points for 1k cheaper.

    Lamar is way too expensive to consider and construct a reasonable lineup

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