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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Saturday, 1/11
    4:35 PM EST : Minnesota ( 6.5 ) at San Francisco ( -6.5 ) —- T: 45
    8:15 PM EST : Tennessee ( 8 ) at Baltimore ( -8 ) —- T: 47

    Sunday, 1//12
    3:05 PM EST : Houston ( 10 ) at Kansas City ( -10 ) —- T: 49
    6:40 PM EST : Seattle ( 4 ) at Green Bay ( -4 ) —- T: 46

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • squidkill

    @mike42 said...

    SQUID- How would you feel if Brady played somewhere else next year? It seems like a real possibility and I think a lot of it has to do with him and BB butting heads for probably a while now

    In order for Brady to stay They revamp the offense and bring in OJB/ AJ green and an OJ Howard type for weapons with Brady for another run (that means Brady has to show up before July to get in sync). Anything short of that he’s gone. I truly believe he doesn’t want to go but he will go because he still wants to play and I doubt he retires. And Then we have a Joe Montana to KC all over again. It will be weird.

  • BIF

    @rourke441 said...

    just this-seattle is 0-7 su alltime vs GB-i bet the packers ml at -185 also lamarr has to be kept off the field so i expect tenn. to run d.henry all day long-i bought a full pt. and bet tenn. plus 10.5

    I have no idea where you got the Seattle is 0-7 SU all time stat from and I truly hope you don’t pay for that information.

    GB is 13-9 SU all time versus Seattle

    Seattle won the last matchup 27-24 in Seattle in 2018
    Seattle also won the 2014 NFC Championship on OT 28-22 vs GB

    In Russ versus ARod matchups, Seattle holds a better W-L record at 4-3

    Russ won the first three, then GB won 3 in a row and Seattle won that last matchup in 2018

    https://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/green-bay-packers/teamvsteam?opp=28

  • BIF

    @mike42 said...

    a GB D that probably would be in the bottom 10 if they didn’t play the Bears and DET 2x each.

    So true, the Pack also played the Skins who never targeted the TE (so stats include a 0-0-0 week) and a backup TE for Giants (Kaden went 6-70 on 8 target).

    In their other “2nd half of the season“ non-divisional games – they got beat up by TE
    Kittle went 6/6 for 129-1
    Olsen went 8/10 for 98
    H Henry went 7/10 for 84

  • squidkill

    Am I nuts or is the TEN/Bal game gonna go way under? Two teams who love to run the ball with decent defenses? Seemed line a 20-17 , 24-17 game incoming. Total already ticking downward.

  • squidkill

    Same game. Hearing that Ingram was experiencing some cramping during bye week. Makes Gus Edwards a very interesting play even if Ingram plays.

  • keephustlincuz

    @squidkill said...

    Same game. Hearing that Ingram was experiencing some cramping during bye week. Makes Gus Edwards a very interesting play even if Ingram plays.

    Keep an eye on the weather for that game squid.

  • squidkill

    @keephustlincuz said...

    Keep an eye on the weather for that game squid.

    Fits the narrative huh. Smash the under and run game. Weather looks gloomy as of today

  • bcandrws

    So something I didn’t think about the last time the cheifs played the Texans. Mahomes wasn’t fully healthy, it was tyreek first game back and he only played half the snaps, watkins didn’t play at all, chris Jones Anthony Hitchens and eric Fisher also didn’t play. Texans were fully healthy. This game may look totally different than the last time they played.

  • mike42

    @bcandrws said...

    So something I didn’t think about the last time the cheifs played the Texans. Mahomes wasn’t fully healthy, it was tyreek first game back and he only played half the snaps, watkins didn’t play at all, chris Jones Anthony Hitchens and eric Fisher also didn’t play. Texans were fully healthy. This game may look totally different than the last time they played.

    I think that is a safe bet. Not only that, but KC made a lot of changes on D including it’s DC and that D really played better as the year went on. Most of me doesn’t think this game will be close. Reid is a much better coach than O’Brian, KC is at home, and KC is better just about everywhere, if not, everywhere.

    I just noticed the weather in Balt and that favors TEN I would think. THe thing that sucks is the weather forecast changes so much that looking at it 5 days out and factoring it into your decisions usually doesn’t pay off. The weather in NE was supposed to be really ugly 4-5 days before they played and it turned out fine.

  • squidkill

    Not a lot of punts that previous game either by both Teams- 2 takeaways from previous KC/Hou game – As others have pointed out KC offense was not at full speed and their defense wasn’t as solid as they are now. Also- weather there looks fine (as of wed morn)

  • squidkill

    Who are we running it back with on Houston? If I’m not using the wr’s Does Fells make sense if Akins is out again? Does Fuller being back make Fells less attractive? or is the answer just Duke Johnson (hate to use up a RB spot on him )

  • Dunzor

    @squidkill said...

    Who are we running it back with on Houston? If I’m not using the wr’s Does Fells make sense if Akins is out again? Does Fuller being back make Fells less attractive? or is the answer just Duke Johnson (hate to use up a RB spot on him )

    I think if Fuller plays he’s the one you want on Hou, but if he’s inactive again then Duke’s usage has gotten a big spike all year whenever Fuller is out so I like him in that case. And I don’t think Fuller impacts Fells that much, but Akins is the question, if he plays then I don’t think I really want any part of Akins or Fells since they basically split snaps & routes when healthy

  • Xmas32

    @squidkill said...

    Who are we running it back with on Houston? If I’m not using the wr’s Does Fells make sense if Akins is out again? Does Fuller being back make Fells less attractive? or is the answer just Duke Johnson (hate to use up a RB spot on him )

    Honestly…I’m not running it back with anybody if Fuller is active as that would cut down on Fells. I think we see a similar result to the KC/Indy game last year where KC just smashes Houston by 3+ scores. I’d rather use Jimmy Graham at $200 cheaper anyway against a Seattle team that struggles against TEs.

  • mike42

    @Xmas32 said...

    Honestly…I’m not running it back with anybody if Fuller is active as that would cut down on Fells. I think we see a similar result to the KC/Indy game last year where KC just smashes Houston by 3+ scores. I’d rather use Jimmy Graham at $200 cheaper anyway against a Seattle team that struggles against TEs.

    Diggs fixed a lot of SEA’s TE problems when he’s actually healthy.

  • odanny

    @mtdurham said...

    Baltimore is obviously a worthy favorite but Tennessee has paths to victory against the Ravens.

    While not quite as prolific as the Baltimore offense, Tennessee has a balanced attack that can keep you guessing. They’ve got a strong running game that can piece together long punishing drives and a man-child in AJ Brown that requires significant defensive attention. They also have a veteran QB that doesn’t make a lot of turnovers or take a lot of sacks.

    Tennessee has a strong base rushing defense and may be able to somewhat LIMIT the historically dominant baltimore rushing offense. We’ve already seen a team foil Lamar in the playoffs by running 7 defensive backs to contain him as a rusher. Credit baltimore for implementing power schemes on offense designed to punish these looks, but nagging injuries to Cark (thats mark with a ‘C’) Ingram and Mark Andrew’s could limit Baltimore’s ability to take advantage of some of those looks.

    A young QB and a team that strolled through the regular season could easily make a few mistakes early and work from behind for one of the few times this year.

    I’ll go 31-23 Ravens with my head but 27-23 Titans with my heart.

    (Titan Up!)

    I’m with you man, and the first bet I laid last Sunday was Titans +10, I know that first year starters in divisional playoff games have a pretty terrible record and I’m wondering if Logan Ryan doesn’t replicate his pick six on an errant throw, keeping this game within at least a TD.

  • Xmas32

    @mike42 said...

    Diggs fixed a lot of SEA’s TE problems when he’s actually healthy.

    That’s a fair point about Diggs and as a Seattle fan, I was thrilled to see him back. Philly’s TEs were still able to get some production going with 9 grabs, 117 rec yards. Granted, Jimmy Graham at this stage of his career isn’t on the same level as Ertz/Goedert. I just think Graham makes for a reasonable punt with 3 studs at TE.

  • mike42

    @squidkill said...

    Who are we running it back with on Houston? If I’m not using the wr’s Does Fells make sense if Akins is out again? Does Fuller being back make Fells less attractive? or is the answer just Duke Johnson (hate to use up a RB spot on him )

    This isn’t the week to worry about using a rb spot on a cheapie. I think 4-5 WR/TE’s smash and RB is the spot to use to save money. I’d love DUKE if I knew they would actually use him the way they should. It’s insane how much better he is than HYDE and it doesn’t seem to matter. I’m mixing in some Duke and other cheapie’s (SF rb’s, Williams) in a lot of LU’s to save more money for other spots. I like Jimmy G too to save $$, I’ll write up why but I think they attack Minny through the air because they should and Shanahan is smart. Minny lost their best CB and I think their best backup CB, last week was more about NO’s choking and Zimmer outsmarting Payton than anything else.

  • squidkill

    I’m down with more of the cheap RB’s- Gus Edwards, SF RB’s, J Will- Seattle RB- I think the highest I go is Damien Williams-

  • mike42

    @odanny said...

    I’m with you man, and the first bet I laid last Sunday was Titans +10, I know that first year starters in divisional playoff games have a pretty terrible record and I’m wondering if Logan Ryan doesn’t replicate his pick six on an errant throw, keeping this game within at least a TD.

    It’s his second year starting after choking in his first playoff game. I see the angle about everyone loving TEN and the weather helps the case but make no mistake about it, BALT is 10 points better than TEN. Tannehill looked awful Vs a comparable secondary last week and I trust Balt’s run D and O more than NE’s by a mile. Like someone posted last week, NE got smashed by good RB’s all year, Balt really hasn’t except for a couple of outlier type games. Everyone on here knows that Balt is going to make Tanefill beat them but nobody is going to fully realize it until they watch the game and realize Henry is getting hit right quick almost every time.

  • 33BeRad

    @mike42 said...

    I like Jimmy G too to save $$, I’ll write up why but I think they attack Minny through the air because they should and Shanahan is smart. Minny lost their best CB and I think their best backup CB, last week was more about NO’s choking and Zimmer outsmarting Payton than anything else.

    I liked Jimmy G earlier in the week. The more I have come to think SF just gets out to a lead and runs it and their def dominates. That’ll lead to a lot of rushes, whether it be Mostert or one of the other backs. Maybe even multiple backs like when they crushed Clev, think they had 2 backs go for 100yds and a td. If SF def looks healthy by the end of the week I may even throw a lineup in with Mostert and Coleman. Henry and Cook are really the only backs you can project to get 20+ touches, and if either game gets away that could go away. It may just boil down to td’s

  • infantryboys

    @mike42 said...

    It’s his second year starting after choking in his first playoff game. I see the angle about everyone loving TEN and the weather helps the case but make no mistake about it, BALT is 10 points better than TEN. Tannehill looked awful Vs a comparable secondary last week and I trust Balt’s run D and O more than NE’s by a mile. Like someone posted last week, NE got smashed by good RB’s all year, Balt really hasn’t except for a couple of outlier type games. Everyone on here knows that Balt is going to make Tanefill beat them but nobody is going to fully realize it until they watch the game and realize Henry is getting hit right quick almost every time.

    What are your thoughts on Minny and/or Tenn coming out flat after emotional, upset wins last week?

  • odanny

    @mike42 said...

    It’s his second year starting after choking in his first playoff game. I see the angle about everyone loving TEN and the weather helps the case but make no mistake about it, BALT is 10 points better than TEN. Tannehill looked awful Vs a comparable secondary last week and I trust Balt’s run D and O more than NE’s by a mile. Like someone posted last week, NE got smashed by good RB’s all year, Balt really hasn’t except for a couple of outlier type games. Everyone on here knows that Balt is going to make Tanefill beat them but nobody is going to fully realize it until they watch the game and realize Henry is getting hit right quick almost every time.

    That’s where I like TN., actually, and am hoping that Tannehill hit A.J. Brown in this one, maybe even Corey Davis getting a TD or Tae Sharpe, I like TN. passing game and TN will stack the box, with Ingram gimpy they will have to stop Edwards/Jackson to win this one. I’m only hoping for a 9 point loss, however, and don’t expect an upset.

  • Logan7777

    Green Bay @ 20 degrees game time and down to 16 by end of game. Is that factor or non factor on either the passing game or the running game? GB plays in the cold; SEA plays in rain. Advantage to GB?

  • mike42

    @infantryboys said...

    What are your thoughts on Minny and/or Tenn coming out flat after emotional, upset wins last week?

    No letdowns in the playoffs. The worry with SF is they or Jimmy G chokes. The worry with Minny is last week was an anomaly or a product of NO’s choking and they come out and get overwhelmed up front making Coisins look like Cousins.

    It’s definitely a different verbiage in the playoffs. Teams rarely come out flat but instead, they get stunned early or out coached. If they are favorites at home, the longer they are behind, the quieter the crowd gets and the tighter they get.

    The issue with most of the underdogs this week is they are playing much better teams. To get an upset, they will probably need TO’s and/or the favorite to play tight. The first offensive drive or 2 for TEN/Minny should tell a lot. Are they getting stuffed, hit in the backfield and/or sacked or are they moving the ball well.

    Most of me thinks this weekends games are blowouts sans the GB game. There really was a decent gap between SF/Balt and KC (when healthy) and the rest of the league. They all have good, savvy, coaches. I’d worry more about Jimmy G or Lamar if they didn’t have such good coaches.

  • squidkill

    Weird feeling Mcoy plays a lot more snaps than people are expecting. That comment Reid made a few weeks back. Watch McCoy start game and march down field. So Andy Reid

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