NFL FORUM

Comments

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Saturday, 1/11
    4:35 PM EST : Minnesota ( 6.5 ) at San Francisco ( -6.5 ) —- T: 45
    8:15 PM EST : Tennessee ( 8 ) at Baltimore ( -8 ) —- T: 47

    Sunday, 1//12
    3:05 PM EST : Houston ( 10 ) at Kansas City ( -10 ) —- T: 49
    6:40 PM EST : Seattle ( 4 ) at Green Bay ( -4 ) —- T: 46

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • 33BeRad

    @squidkill said...

    Weird feeling Mcoy plays a lot more snaps than people are expecting. That comment Reid made a few weeks back. Watch McCoy start game and march down field. So Andy Reid

    Yeah, I was thinking that too, I almost clicked on him and kept going back to what Reid said. May have him in 1 lineup, just in case.

  • bcandrws

    @squidkill said...

    Weird feeling Mcoy plays a lot more snaps than people are expecting. That comment Reid made a few weeks back. Watch McCoy start game and march down field. So Andy Reid

    Yea I’m kinda worried about that too, because he was a healthy scratch so much at the end of the season.

  • That first game is either going one of two ways. Minnesota hangs in there in the first quarter, establishes cook enough to make it a slower competitive game where pass rush can disrupt jimmy and keep it a lower scoring game.

    Or

    The 49ers run away with it right off the bat. In that event I’d want all 49ers d, teeing off cousins. I haven’t watched much of the 49ers, so idk how it’s gonna go.

  • blake024

    @squidkill said...

    Am I nuts or is the TEN/Bal game gonna go way under? Two teams who love to run the ball with decent defenses? Seemed line a 20-17 , 24-17 game incoming. Total already ticking downward.

    No I was thinking the exact same thing. I think that’s a 19-16 kind of game.

  • blake024

    @bcandrws said...

    Yea I’m kinda worried about that too, because he was a healthy scratch so much at the end of the season.

    Funny I thought that earlier too, especially for holding him out those last games. Maybe Reid was keeping him fresh for the playoffs? I think that maybe the right move here is to simply avoid all KC RBs. It’s not like he Damien Williams is a workhorse type back who can handle those receptions plus 20 carries. He’s very big play reliant and he is going to be chalky af. I think he splits carries with McCoy and neither one is worth owning.

  • Dunzor

    https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28448489/vikings-adam-thielen-suffers-ankle-injury-stefon-diggs-again-sits-practice

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    Squid I’m with you in the McCoy belief that he will be involved. For his price he’s worth a shot. Gonna be a lot of “surprise” production IMO. Still agree with most about the winners but think GB handles SEA. MIN has a chance but I’m not buying in yet.

  • mike42

    @squidkill said...

    Weird feeling Mcoy plays a lot more snaps than people are expecting. That comment Reid made a few weeks back. Watch McCoy start game and march down field. So Andy Reid

    💯. I can almost guarantee you the sharps will pivot off of Williams a lot to Shady. 30-40 plus % of the touches with a strong lean to the passing game and he becomes a great pivot off of the chalkiest play on the board. It’s also a good reason to go under on 50% owned Williams.

  • TopDawgs07

    @mike42 said...

    No letdowns in the playoffs. The worry with SF is they or Jimmy G chokes. The worry with Minny is last week was an anomaly or a product of NO’s choking and they come out and get overwhelmed up front making Coisins look like Cousins.

    It’s definitely a different verbiage in the playoffs. Teams rarely come out flat but instead, they get stunned early or out coached. If they are favorites at home, the longer they are behind, the quieter the crowd gets and the tighter they get.

    The issue with most of the underdogs this week is they are playing much better teams. To get an upset, they will probably need TO’s and/or the favorite to play tight. The first offensive drive or 2 for TEN/Minny should tell a lot. Are they getting stuffed, hit in the backfield and/or sacked or are they moving the ball well.

    Most of me thinks this weekends games are blowouts sans the GB game. There really was a decent gap between SF/Balt and KC (when healthy) and the rest of the league. They all have good, savvy, coaches. I’d worry more about Jimmy G or Lamar if they didn’t have such good coaches.

    The only thing that gives me pause when considering the 4 teams that were on byes and getting blowout wins, is that there is a tendency for teams coming off the bye to be a little flat. That slow start can be troublesome. If you’re going to upset teams like Baltimore or SF, the Divisional Round is when it will happen. While I agree I favor both of them quite a bit, it is a concern. Tennessee is playing well in particular. I think they can make that Baltimore game a lot closer than people might suspect, at least into the second half.

  • mike42

    @billythekidcowboysheat said...

    That first game is either going one of two ways. Minnesota hangs in there in the first quarter, establishes cook enough to make it a slower competitive game where pass rush can disrupt jimmy and keep it a lower scoring game.

    Or

    The 49ers run away with it right off the bat. In that event I’d want all 49ers d, teeing off cousins. I haven’t watched much of the 49ers, so idk how it’s gonna go.

    I can see SF’s well rested, fully healthy, fast as hell D coming out flying around and stuffing Minny clearer than anything else in this game. The other thing that I think is likely is Shanahan outsmarting Zimmer early and getting some points on the board. I think you are discounting the possibility that SF comes out strong and Minny settles down, SF’s D tires a bit and minny makes a game of it late. That’s my biggest fear with betting on SF. I don’t want Minny within striking distance late because they gained confidence last week.

  • wilks3579

    Talk me off the ledge here:

    I’m currently running A Jones and J Williams in my line up. My line of thinking goes something like this: Matt LaFleur wants to run the ball and that is exactly what he should be able to do. Seattle giving up 118yds rushing per game (162yds!!! over their last 5). Looking at roughly 62 plays for GB and I think they can control this game throughout which should lead to a few more rushing attempts, 30 rushes, 32 pass attempts. Approximately 20 carries for Jones and 10 carries for Williams. Also, combined the two backs account for over 21% of Rodgers attempts which would be good for about 7 targets. GB puts four TDs on the board and they are all funneled through the RB’s. Run it back with Hollister and I should be sitting pretty! Now I just need to figure out the rest of the lineup…

  • RatedDAL

    @wilks3579 said...

    Talk me off the ledge here:

    I’m currently running A Jones and J Williams in my line up. My line of thinking goes something like this: Matt LaFleur wants to run the ball and that is exactly what he should be able to do. Seattle giving up 118yds rushing per game (162yds!!! over their last 5). Looking at roughly 62 plays for GB and I think they can control this game throughout which should lead to a few more rushing attempts, 30 rushes, 32 pass attempts. Approximately 20 carries for Jones and 10 carries for Williams. Also, combined the two backs account for over 21% of Rodgers attempts which would be good for about 7 targets. GB puts four TDs on the board and they are all funneled through the RB’s. Run it back with Hollister and I should be sitting pretty! Now I just need to figure out the rest of the lineup…

    That seems like an absolute best case scenario. Worst case is Williams got more work during the regular season so they could Bell cow Jones during the playoffs and Williams gets 2 carries and 1 target.

  • squidkill

    I think the key to the RB slate is those GB backs- Would love to know the snap % 55/45 60/40 70/30 Both RB look good when giving the opportunity. I really doubt a Bell Cow scenario for Jones. That would be my least predictive guess.

  • squidkill

    There really isn’t a clear cut RB workload outside of Henry – Maybe Dalvin is a close 2. But Mattison mixes in frequently

  • bcandrws

    @squidkill said...

    There really isn’t a clear cut RB workload outside of Henry – Maybe Dalvin is a close 2. But Mattison mixes in frequently

    Yea RB this week is a crapshoot, because none of them except for the highest priced one in a tough matchup are clear cut

  • RatedDAL

    @squidkill said...

    I think the key to the RB slate is those GB backs- Would love to know the snap % 55/45 60/40 70/30 Both RB look good when giving the opportunity. I really doubt a Bell Cow scenario for Jones. That would be my least predictive guess.

    GB’s offense is far superior when Jones is on the field to Williams. On a per play basis Jones has added .22 expected points compared to a negative number when Williams is out there.

    Jones has been a bellcow when Williams was injured also so it’s not that improbable GB realizes the difference between the 2 and its win or go home now.

  • mike42

    @blake024 said...

    No I was thinking the exact same thing. I think that’s a 19-16 kind of game.

    Any chance we are giving TEN’s D too much credit for shutting down an O with no weapons last week and we are forgetting how explosive that BALT O was all year even though they run a lot? Where Ten’s run D is strong centers around J. Casey at DT and that’s not really been where Balt’s run game thrives. Ten was bad Vs TE’s too and Balt has 3 that can beat you and 2 that are really explosive. On top of that, they’ve had 3 weeks to work on preparing for this game and I’d imagine we see some new stuff that is designed to create big plays. None of us thought TEN had a good D before last week and all of us would have thought Balt wouldn’t have a hard time scoring vs this D a couple of weeks ago.

    BTW- The weather looks to be clearing up in Balt but might be windy in SF. Like I said a couple of days ago, it’s impossible to trust the weather reports 5 days out. No rain and a little wind basically means no weather issues in Balt.

    This week is the most important week of the year to fight recency bias. Forget what happened last week and than try to think about the games and you will be closer to right than you would be if you didn’t do so. Balt is a couple notches bettert than TEN. Their weakness is a lack of a pass rush which is offset by TEN being a poor pass blocking team. Tannefill needs the run game to look good VS this secondary and a full rested and healthy Balt D should be able to contain Henry. On O, Balt’s TE centric passing game matches up real well Vs TEN’s LB’s and S“s and literally nobody has been able to stop Balt’s run game and Lamarr all year. For this game to be close, Balt is going to need to play a bad game/choke (ala NO’s) or have a bad gameplan, neither of which are the most likely scenarios.

  • periewe

    @Dunzor said...

    https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28448489/vikings-adam-thielen-suffers-ankle-injury-stefon-diggs-again-sits-practice

    NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports the Vikings “will proceed with caution” while evaluating Adam Thielen (ankle).
    Specifically, the Vikings’ stud WR needed stitches for a bad cut on his ankle suffered in practice Wednesday. Thielen is tentatively expected to suit up for this week’s matchup against the 49ers.

    Zimmer also mentioned that Diggs should be good to go by weekend.

  • squidkill

    Diggs at only $5,600 with a banged up Thielen

  • squidkill

    @ Mike42

    I never really picked on Tenn defense this year- They weren’t great in really anything particular, but yet never really gave up monster games if I recall.

  • @mike42 said...

    I can see SF’s well rested, fully healthy, fast as hell D coming out flying around and stuffing Minny clearer than anything else in this game. The other thing that I think is likely is Shanahan outsmarting Zimmer early and getting some points on the board. I think you are discounting the possibility that SF comes out strong and Minny settles down, SF’s D tires a bit and minny makes a game of it late. That’s my biggest fear with betting on SF. I don’t want Minny within striking distance late because they gained confidence last week.

    Yeah, I’m really looking to find a receiver from the sf end. That’s the other issue is they spread it around so much, so i may just fade it all together. Depending on how bad the weather is, bal-ten is the other game I’m looking at closely.

    Feels like either a dog💩 game or has some nice pieces. Lamar could just run all over them, which even with his pricetag, those potential rushing tds are appealing. Henry should be irrelevant if bal gets up early.

  • 33BeRad

    How come nobody is mentioning Watson? Last week, everyone was calling him MJ and Buff has arguably a better defense than KC. They are the only team that won last week at home so they are not on back-to-back road games and have the confidence to win in Arrowhead. I am not saying they will win but with all the good QB’s this week he seems to be the least talked about. Anyone have projected ownerships?

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @Logan7777 said...

    Green Bay @ 20 degrees game time and down to 16 by end of game. Is that factor or non factor on either the passing game or the running game? GB plays in the cold; SEA plays in rain. Advantage to GB?

    The “frozen tundra” is a myth. The ground at Lambeau Field, legendary home of the Green Bay Packers, is heated. It has not been frozen during a football game since it was dubbed the “frozen tundra” more than 40 years ago. The ground below Lambeau Field has been heated since 1967, when Coach Vince Lombardi oversaw the installation of electric coils that zig-zagged under the turf like wires in an electric blanket. The electric coils were replaced in 1997 by a system of pipes filled with a solution including antifreeze. These days, the temperature of the soil is controlled by the field manager who will probably set the soil temperature to about 40 degrees. That will be enough to offset the subfreezing air temperature and keep the field soft. It is not warm enough to entice players to linger on the grass for an extra moment or two at the end of a play. Even on the coldest days, players are not likely to feel heat rising from beneath their toes.

    sauce. NY Times

  • Logan7777

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    The “frozen tundra” is a myth. The ground at Lambeau Field, legendary home of the Green Bay Packers, is heated. It has not been frozen during a football game since it was dubbed the “frozen tundra” more than 40 years ago. The ground below Lambeau Field has been heated since 1967, when Coach Vince Lombardi oversaw the installation of electric coils that zig-zagged under the turf like wires in an electric blanket. The electric coils were replaced in 1997 by a system of pipes filled with a solution including antifreeze. These days, the temperature of the soil is controlled by the field manager who will probably set the soil temperature to about 40 degrees. That will be enough to offset the subfreezing air temperature and keep the field soft. It is not warm enough to entice players to linger on the grass for an extra moment or two at the end of a play. Even on the coldest days, players are not likely to feel heat rising from beneath their toes.

    sauce. NY Times

    I understood the frozen tundra angle and the Lambeau field construction to take care of the turf freezing. I was more looking at the cold factor with 20 degree weather affecting frozen/cold hands on the SEA side that aren’t used to this weather scenario. And GB living here and it’s just another football day to them. I’m all over Aaron Jones the more I think of it and will start with that for my lu builds.

  • mike42

    @33BeRad said...

    How come nobody is mentioning Watson? Last week, everyone was calling him MJ and Buff has arguably a better defense than KC. They are the only team that won last week at home so they are not on back-to-back road games and have the confidence to win in Arrowhead. I am not saying they will win but with all the good QB’s this week he seems to be the least talked about. Anyone have projected ownerships?

    QB- Mahommes-21, Lamarr-19, Watson 13.6, Jimmy g-11.7, Russ 11.3, AR-10.5
    RB-DWILL-44, AJ-28 (it will be higher), Raheem 27 (will be lower), Cook-27, Henry-25, Lynch-23 (will be lower), Ingram 20, hyde 15-rest under 10
    WR- Adams-34, Hill 31, NUK- 20, 19- Lockett, DK 17, Moore-15 (lower), Will Fuller-14 ( 2x that), Lazard 12 All others under 10
    Kittle- 35, 29-Kelce, Andrews-18, Holister 10
    D- SF_GB/Balt16.5

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Subforum Index

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).