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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

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    Saturday, 1/11
    4:35 PM EST : Minnesota ( 6.5 ) at San Francisco ( -6.5 ) —- T: 45
    8:15 PM EST : Tennessee ( 8 ) at Baltimore ( -8 ) —- T: 47

    Sunday, 1//12
    3:05 PM EST : Houston ( 10 ) at Kansas City ( -10 ) —- T: 49
    6:40 PM EST : Seattle ( 4 ) at Green Bay ( -4 ) —- T: 46

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • mike42

    @33BeRad said...

    How come nobody is mentioning Watson? Last week, everyone was calling him MJ and Buff has arguably a better defense than KC. They are the only team that won last week at home so they are not on back-to-back road games and have the confidence to win in Arrowhead. I am not saying they will win but with all the good QB’s this week he seems to be the least talked about. Anyone have projected ownerships?

    He will be heavily owned. I’m still processing the games but I think that rookie safety being out is a biggie. KC’s corners have not been good despite the fact the overall D has been great Vs WR’s so I’m guessing that has a lot to do with the Safety play. Den was kind of like that too, one good corner, 2 bad ones plus good safety play somehow equaled a pass D you didn’t want to bet against.

    Watson might be the best cash QB if Fuller plays. Really hard to fit Mahomes or Lamar in and still have a LU you like.

  • mike42

    @squidkill said...

    @ Mike42

    I never really picked on Tenn defense this year- They weren’t great in really anything particular, but yet never really gave up monster games if I recall.

    It feels like you could fade the entire game outside of D’s and sleep OK on Saturday night. The thing is outside of a game in the rain Vs a really good SF d, Balt averaged over 35 pts a game the second 1/2 of the year. I think TEN averaged over 30 after Tannehill took over too. I also think while I was writing this post I talked myself into stacking this game in a LU or 2. If Balt can jump out, this could end up being THE game while also being the lowest owned.

  • squidkill

    @mike42 said...

    He will be heavily owned. I’m still processing the games but I think that rookie safety being out is a biggie. KC’s corners have not been good despite the fact the overall D has been great Vs WR’s so I’m guessing that has a lot to do with the Safety play. Den was kind of like that too, one good corner, 2 bad ones plus good safety play somehow equaled a pass D you didn’t want to bet against.

    Watson might be the best cash QB if Fuller plays. Really hard to fit Mahomes or Lamar in and still have a LU you like.

    Ok so nobody has a clue how Fuller will be. Decoy? Hobbled? 90%? He is such a porcelain doll from the waste down. I don’t trust of speed receiver with late season groin and hammy injuries at all.

  • mtdurham

    @Logan7777 said...

    Green Bay @ 20 degrees game time and down to 16 by end of game. Is that factor or non factor on either the passing game or the running game? GB plays in the cold; SEA plays in rain. Advantage to GB?

    GB has a stellar running game that’s why the cold favors them. They cant throw downfield. Davante is a beast in the short passing game too.

    Seattle has made a lot of big plays in the passing game all year but the weather and their injuries make that very unlikely.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @mike42 said...

    QB- Mahommes-21, Lamarr-19, Watson 13.6, Jimmy g-11.7, Russ 11.3, AR-10.5
    RB-DWILL-44, AJ-28 (it will be higher), Raheem 27 (will be lower), Cook-27, Henry-25, Lynch-23 (will be lower), Ingram 20, hyde 15-rest under 10
    WR- Adams-34, Hill 31, NUK- 20, 19- Lockett, DK 17, Moore-15 (lower), Will Fuller-14 ( 2x that), Lazard 12 All others under 10
    Kittle- 35, 29-Kelce, Andrews-18, Holister 10
    D- SF_GB/Balt16.5

    So do you think D Will % will be that high come kick off or will the sharp/shady % lower that 44 to a more GPP-friendly #?

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @Logan7777 said...

    I understood the frozen tundra angle and the Lambeau field construction to take care of the turf freezing. I was more looking at the cold factor with 20 degree weather affecting frozen/cold hands on the SEA side that aren’t used to this weather scenario. And GB living here and it’s just another football day to them. I’m all over Aaron Jones the more I think of it and will start with that for my lu builds.

    Lol I think the “frozen tundra angle” is the only relevant one here. These players all have high-tech gloves, strapped to the waist hand warmers, heated benches with high-tech parkas etc. if they want. Back while you were studying for your SATs I was a grave-digger in the frozen northeast tundra. We had to use a jackhammer to break thru the top 6” of soil because the ground was like concrete. These players won’t have to deal with that. Gloves, heated benches and a soft spot to land, the weather shouldn’t be an excuse

  • Sbunit

    49ers are very stout against the TE. I was wondering if Minnesota gets Irv Smith Jr more involved this week as he appears to be the more versatile and quicker TE over Rudolph. Can he pass as a viable cheap punt? Minnesota is going to have to be creative on offense to win this game, their offense doesn’t match up well against the 49ers. I’m seeing this as a low scoring game

  • mike42

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    So do you think D Will % will be that high come kick off or will the sharp/shady % lower that 44 to a more GPP-friendly #?

    Shady’s ownership might be 5%, if that, just not enough to really matter. His POWN is 1.7%. Shady is a good guy to mix into 20 LU’s 1-2x but he’s not going to be a core piece for anyone. Decent chance he’s gets 25-35% of the touches and gets 3-5 catches and a few runs. I also think A. Reid would want him to score a TD in the playoffs and would design a play for him in the red zone. The way this slate shakes out I could easily see 12-15 points from a low-cost RB being enough to actually help you win a GPP given that WR/TE/QB have so many high-cost players with high ceilings and a good chance of getting there. Last week TE was garbage, this week it’s RB that looks way worse than the other positions. . I “think” the right play is to pay down at 1 RB spot. I’m mixing in the backup SF RB’s and Duke too. I like the idea of having a 3.5K or less SF RB in for roster construction purposes and because Shanahan is a slut with RB’ usage more than I probably should.

  • mike42

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    Lol I think the “frozen tundra angle” is the only relevant one here. These players all have high-tech gloves, strapped to the waist hand warmers, heated benches with high-tech parkas etc. if they want. Back while you were studying for your SATs I was a grave-digger in the frozen northeast tundra. We had to use a jackhammer to break thru the top 6” of soil because the ground was like concrete. These players won’t have to deal with that. Gloves, heated benches and a soft spot to land, the weather shouldn’t be an excuse

    Someday I would like to grab a beer with you and talk about life. I would also like to grab a beer with Squid and talk about anything but.

  • TopDawgs07

    What I’m reading about the weather this weekend appears to not really show any significant weather that will affect these 4 Divisional games. Green Bay/Seattle will see a snow storm dump up to 10” of snow prior to the game but will be dry on Sunday. They now show Baltimore/Tennessee as dry for most of the game. KC/Houston will again have a storm that hits prior to the game but should be fine for kickoff. Then SF/Minny looks to be fine. I had concerns for the GB/Sea and KC/Hou games prior to visiting Accuweather.

  • squidkill

    Sounds good Mike—— We will stick to sports. You don’t want to peek behind the curtain, I don’t blame you.

  • squidkill

    @SBunit- Too many good tight ends on this slate to be dipping to Irv Smith- maybe in 1/150.

  • Dunzor

    @Sbunit said...

    49ers are very stout against the TE. I was wondering if Minnesota gets Irv Smith Jr more involved this week as he appears to be the more versatile and quicker TE over Rudolph. Can he pass as a viable cheap punt? Minnesota is going to have to be creative on offense to win this game, their offense doesn’t match up well against the 49ers. I’m seeing this as a low scoring game

    I think this is a trap if you play Irv, his usage was only up during the stretch that Thielen was injured. With Thielen healthy Rudolph is the primary TE and Irv gets relegated to back up:

    Kyle Rudolph played 92% of the snaps in the Wild Card round with 7 targets. Irv Smith Jr. played 56% of snaps and was not targeted.

  • wilks3579

    I think Deebo (not our deeeebo, the SF one) is a must this weekend. They want him involved and are scheming plays to get him the ball. He will be a lot lower owned than he should be in tournaments and with Kittle projected at 35+% ownership and Mostert at 20+%, I’ll happily take the 10-12% Deebo (again, not our deeebo, the SF one) will come in at. Dude just seems to have a nose for the endzone and I absolutely think he is a better play than Manny (and cheaper).
    Volume is a bit of a concern but if the Niners are going out of there way to get him the ball, against the Vikes (not so great) secondary, I’m in.

  • ghost3490

    @wilks3579 said...

    I think Deebo (not our deeeebo, the SF one) is a must this weekend. They want him involved and are scheming plays to get him the ball. He will be a lot lower owned than he should be in tournaments and with Kittle projected at 35+% ownership and Mostert at 20+%, I’ll happily take the 10-12% Deebo (again, not our deeebo, the SF one) will come in at. Dude just seems to have a nose for the endzone and I absolutely think he is a better play than Manny (and cheaper).
    Volume is a bit of a concern but if the Niners are going out of there way to get him the ball, against the Vikes (not so great) secondary, I’m in.

    What is Manny’s projected ownership?

  • wilks3579

    @ghost3490 said...

    What is Manny’s projected ownership?

    About the same as Deebo. I don’t think many people are looking at the Niners’ pass catchers other than Kittle

  • Falconsfly

    I’m on Sanders. Only bc he’s cheaper on FD though..Would prefer Deebo

  • keephustlincuz

    @wilks3579 said...

    About the same as Deebo. I don’t think many people are looking at the Niners’ pass catchers other than Kittle

    Deebo will be my highest owned wr this week.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @mike42 said...

    Someday I would like to grab a beer with you and talk about life. I would also like to grab a beer with Squid and talk about anything but.

    Appreciate that Mike, Lol I DO have some stories. Pretty sure Squid does too. On a sidebar, I just finished binge-watching 5 seasons of The Bachelorette and I feel real good about my line-ups. Travis Homer as the last game hammer, gonna break a few long ones, at least one for a TD making The Skittle King irrelevant, 5 catches/100+ cause this isn’t the Philly D from last week. Fresh legs in week 19. Which is why I’ll stick with my guess Reid treats D Will as #1. Had a 5 week vacation and used the last 2 to get into game shape. 4 yrs younger, 2,000+ less carries, 450+ less targets and IMO more talented than Shady at this point in time , I’ll be betting on D-Will getting similar volume as the last 2 and Shady as the clear #2

  • 33BeRad

    I can already feel the tilt when Kendrick Borne and Juice score for the 9ers tomorrow and Bisi and Mattison score for the Vikings. There are so many randoms that are in play, all these teams spread it around. Which random Raven WR or TE will score? Hardman or D Rob on KC could have 1 big play, or Watkins could show up for the 1st time since week 1.
    I would like to think the Packers are more narrow but Williams and some WR that has done nothing of late could score. Lynch could get a TD and 25yds and do nothing but hurt your Russ stack. Gonna be a wing and prayer weekend that your guys get the TDs.

  • JSteele

    Love Deebo this weekend.

    Also like Darren Fells as a cheap TE this week. I’d rather pay up at RB and Lamar this week, so I won’t be able to go up to Kelce or Kittle and Mark Andrews is a question mark with his injury. Also because of Andrews question mark I like Hollywood Brown at 4.4k.

    Fells went 6-69 against KC earlier in the year, and if he finds the end zone he’s at 20 FPTs. KC has a decent pass rush too, so Watson might need to get rid of it early to guys like Duke Johnson and Fells

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @33BeRad said...

    I can already feel the tilt when Kendrick Borne and Juice score for the 9ers tomorrow and Bisi and Mattison score for the Vikings. There are so many randoms that are in play, all these teams spread it around. Which random Raven WR or TE will score? Hardman or D Rob on KC could have 1 big play, or Watkins could show up for the 1st time since week 1.
    I would like to think the Packers are more narrow but Williams and some WR that has done nothing of late could score. Lynch could get a TD and 25yds and do nothing but hurt your Russ stack. Gonna be a wing and prayer weekend that your guys get the TDs.

    I thought random players scoring TDs was an every week theme lol. Vita Vea, Christian Wilkins, Elandin Roberts, Jason Sanders just to name a few that caught TDs this season. The list of randoms is extensive, which leads me to ask the question “Wouldn’t it be less stressful collecting stamps”?

  • JSteele

    I’m looking for 299 Friends to make a single lineup each in the Milly to split the top prize 300 ways.

    Anyone in?

  • 33BeRad

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    I thought random players scoring TDs was an every week theme lol. Vita Vea, Christian Wilkins, Elandin Roberts, Jason Sanders just to name a few that caught TDs this season. The list of randoms is extensive, which leads me to ask the question “Wouldn’t it be less stressful collecting stamps”?

    A lot less stressful to just collect stamps. And you may get lucky and come across a “Jenny” without even trying! HAHA! Yes, of course randoms score every week, but on a 10+ game slate they usually don’t make it onto any winning lineups. This week feels like they could.

  • mike42

    @keephustlincuz said...

    Deebo will be my highest owned wr this week.

    Take this for what it’s worth but I’ve thought all along that SF got Manny for these types of games. He’s that vet presence that I think you can expect increased usage for in the playoffs. Minny is extremely good Vs TE’s and it’s not by accident, their S’s and main LB are beasts in coverage so Kittle is my favorite fade of the weekend. I also think Shanahan passes more than most are expecting in this game and unlike NO’s, he will move the pocket to give Jimmy G extra time and outsmart Zimmer. SO while I think a SF WR is firmly in play, I would suggest not going all in on a rookie and forgetting a veteran like Manny who’s been there before. Deebo isn’t necessarily a go route type and is more of a RB at WR and I’m not sure that’s how you want to attack minny given they have studds at LB/S. I can see splitting it up between the 2 or going 75-25 either way, but a 100% Deebo feels like a mistake. I’m going more Manny than Deebo for sure given that Minny is going to have a guy that got cut by Philly playing slot and I’d guess that Manny spends some time lining up against him.

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