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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Saturday, January 16th
    4:35 PM EST : LA Rams ( 7 ) at Green Bay ( -7 ) —- T: 45.5
    8:15 PM EST : Baltimore ( 3 ) at Buffalo ( -3 ) —- T: 50.5

    Sunday, January 17th
    3:05 PM EST : Cleveland ( 10 ) at Kansas City ( -10 ) —- T: 55.5
    6:40 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 3 ) at New Orleans ( -3 ) —- T: 51.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • emnj69

    @manBEAST said...

    End of the Pittsburgh game was fun, but what a volatile weekend…I’m sure plenty of lineups had John Brown, Corey Davis, and Ronald Jones have to avoid those mines this weekend!

    brown davis and jones last week-had one of them in all of my line ups

  • NDNole

    MT is going to be the late hammer that crushes peoples dreams. I see one of the earlier games will be the key stack and people will have it right but miss on the correct saint to bring it home. I dont mess with RB’s vs TB not even kamara, so I think the hammer will be MT who will get peppered with targets and probably a score or two.

  • squidkill

    @NDNole said...

    MT is going to be the late hammer that crushes peoples dreams. I see one of the earlier games will be the key stack and people will have it right but miss on the correct saint to bring it home. I dont mess with RB’s vs TB not even kamara, so I think the hammer will be MT who will get peppered with targets and probably a score or two.

    i’d like Bif to discuss the TB pass defense now vs earlier and the year seems they have improved

  • NDNole

    @squidkill said...

    i’d like Bif to discuss the TB pass defense now vs earlier and the year seems they have improved

    Yeah they have improved. TB is not the pushover pass D they were earlier. But they still erase rbs. Someone for NO is gonna score. I think even if MT doesnt get a TD he still gets a lot of receptions this game. Kamara I think gets held in check cause thats what TB does to rbs. Thats how I see it at least.

  • squidkill

    @NDNole said...

    Yeah they have improved. TB is not the pushover pass D they were earlier. But they still erase rbs. Someone for NO is gonna score. I think even if MT doesnt get a TD he still gets a lot of receptions this game. Kamara I think gets held in check cause thats what TB does to rbs. Thats how I see it at least.

    i agree with that 100 percent
    looking into MT vs the secondary and LBs underneath

  • infantryboys

    @squidkill said...

    Lots of tough WR/CB matchups this week
    if that matters

    I think it does. If you look at the 3 most expensive WRs, Adams gets Jalon Ramsey, Diggs gets Marlon Humphrey, while Hill gets some schmuck who began the season on the practice squad.

    The more I look at this slate, the more I think KC onslaught is the way to go, even if it is expensive.

  • NDNole

    @infantryboys said...

    I think it does. If you look at the 3 most expensive WRs, Adams gets Jalon Ramsey, Diggs gets Marlon Humphrey, while Hill gets some schmuck who began the season on the practice squad.

    The more I look at this slate, the more I think KC onslaught is the way to go, even if it is expensive.

    Expensive and chalky. But will probably pay off. I dont see how everyone wont be on KC. Its the obvious play. I wont be doing a KC onslaught in my single lineup but thats probably unwise on my part lol.

  • squidkill

    Weather will play a role as well this weekend

  • TopDawgs07

    @manBEAST said...

    End of the Pittsburgh game was fun, but what a volatile weekend…I’m sure plenty of lineups had John Brown, Corey Davis, and Ronald Jones have to avoid those mines this weekend!

    Sadly, I had far too much of those three names and they certainly hurt some very good LU’s. Jones in particular.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @squidkill said...

    I think Goff has “dwarf like” hands- Very difficult to grip the football in poor weather. Similar to Branden Allen- It’s a thing.

    LOL “dwarf like hands”, “tiny ass people”, not sure why Landa wants to limit this sort of creativity.
    With a feels-like temp around 24 degrees Goff travels NORTHeast to the “heated coil tundra” of Lambeau field with his dwarf like hands, 3 pins in his throwing thumb and a playoff record that’ll make Rams fans shudder more than the weather in Green Bay.

    GP CMP ATT PCT YDS YDS/G TD INT SCK
    5 92 170 54.1 1,126 225.2 3 2 10

    No 300 yd games, none with multiple TDs, it doesn’t look good for Jared and his itty-bitty fingers. But there’s hope. With a great D (coachspeakMcVay says Donald will be ready) + a big hole on the Packer OL(Bakhtiari) + Ram RBs/Bobby Trees have success running the ball behind a solid OL vs a meh run D= limited Packer possessions= possible upset. It could happen. I don’t think so lol but it could. Pack with the win 30-16

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @HoodsFromTheWood said...

    No 300 yd games, none with multiple TDs, it doesn’t look good for Jared and his itty-bitty fingers. But there’s hope. With a great D (coachspeakMcVay says Donald will be ready) + a big hole on the Packer OL(Bakhtiari) + Ram RBs/Bobby Trees have success running the ball behind a solid OL vs a meh run D= limited Packer possessions= possible upset. It could happen. I don’t think so lol but it could. Pack with the win 30-16

    No doubt Green Bay’s toughest matchup of the year. Aaron Rodgers, who has accounted for multiple touchdowns in 15-of-16 games, the most TD passes, 9th most 20+ yd completions and the most 40+yd completions has to face Los Angeles’ NFL-best pass defense, which yielded league lows in regular season touchdown passes (17), yards per pass attempt (6.2), completions of 20-plus yards (36), and completions of 40-plus (4) while ranking No. 2 in sacks (53) Strength vs strength. I think a poor showing by LA’s O leaves the Rams D hanging out to dry, and while not optimal, I think A-Rod has a solid game. Last week Carson had some success running the ball vs LA, 16 carries at 4.8 yds/carry in a game script limited game. Jones, a home RB favored by 6.5 pts probably won’t be as limited. I think Akers, Kamara and Chubb will be higher owned. In last Januarys 2 playoff games, Jones outtouched/outsnapped Williams 39-7/94-29. I expect after a week off it’ll be similar vs the Rams

  • squidkill

    @HoodsFromTheWood said...

    LOL “dwarf like hands”, “tiny ass people”, not sure why Landa wants to limit this sort of creativity.
    With a feels-like temp around 24 degrees Goff travels NORTHeast to the “heated coil tundra” of Lambeau field with his dwarf like hands, 3 pins in his throwing thumb and a playoff record that’ll make Rams fans shudder more than the weather in Green Bay.

    GP CMP ATT PCT YDS YDS/G TD INT SCK
    5 92 170 54.1 1,126 225.2 3 2 10

    No 300 yd games, none with multiple TDs, it doesn’t look good for Jared and his itty-bitty fingers. But there’s hope. With a great D (coachspeakMcVay says Donald will be ready) + a big hole on the Packer OL(Bakhtiari) + Ram RBs/Bobby Trees have success running the ball behind a solid OL vs a meh run D= limited Packer possessions= possible upset. It could happen. I don’t think so lol but it could. Pack with the win 30-16

    I grew up with a kid with dwarfism. It was tough. People pointed, stared and messed with him. We were at lollapolooza once and some drunk kids grabbed him and he was forced to crowd surf while he was on mushrooms. I found him 2 miles and 2 hours later. He was dehydrated and his head was half shaved and he only had one shoe. It was a nightmare.

    I forget my point but I miss him.

  • dgballer

    @squidkill said...

    I grew up with a kid with dwarfism. It was tough. People pointed, stared and messed with him. We were at lollapolooza once and some drunk kids grabbed him and he was forced to crowd surf while he was on mushrooms. I found him 2 miles and 2 hours later. He was dehydrated and his head was half shaved and he only had one shoe. It was a nightmare.

    I forget my point but I miss him.

    post of the year!!!!! lmfaoo!!!

  • Ricolasvegas

    @HoodsFromTheWood said...

    No doubt Green Bay’s toughest matchup of the year. Aaron Rodgers, who has accounted for multiple touchdowns in 15-of-16 games, the most TD passes, 9th most 20+ yd completions and the most 40+yd completions has to face Los Angeles’ NFL-best pass defense, which yielded league lows in regular season touchdown passes (17), yards per pass attempt (6.2), completions of 20-plus yards (36), and completions of 40-plus (4) while ranking No. 2 in sacks (53) Strength vs strength. I think a poor showing by LA’s O leaves the Rams D hanging out to dry, and while not optimal, I think A-Rod has a solid game. Last week Carson had some success running the ball vs LA, 16 carries at 4.8 yds/carry in a game script limited game. Jones, a home RB favored by 6.5 pts probably won’t be as limited. I think Akers, Kamara and Chubb will be higher owned. In last Januarys 2 playoff games, Jones outtouched/outsnapped Williams 39-7/94-29. I expect after a week off it’ll be similar vs the Rams

    Are yall playing Kamara ? Is he gonna chalk ? Theres alot of value at RB. Looks like only 2 RBS to have decent game vs Tampa all year was Mccaffrey in week 2 and Dalvin Cook is only one to break 100 yds on them.

    Kamara has 21 carries for 56 yards vs Tampa this year… he has still avg 19 DK points a game vs them. But as the most expensive RB I cant see myself going there.

    Im with ya on Jones. If im “paying up”, Jones should have lower ownership, I can see GB having a bunch of screen passes dialed up for him. As the Rams are real good at getting to the QB

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @Ricolasvegas said...

    Are yall playing Kamara ? Is he gonna chalk ? Theres alot of value at RB. Looks like only 2 RBS to have decent game vs Tampa all year was Mccaffrey in week 2 and Dalvin Cook is only one to break 100 yds on them.

    Kamara has 21 carries for 56 yards vs Tampa this year… he has still avg 19 DK points a game vs them. But as the most expensive RB I cant see myself going there.

    Not sure yet. The Landa Law prohibits me from lineup construction until the last possible moment, but on a small slate, 19 pts from an RB doesn’t sound so bad

  • WrathofKhaaan

    While TB’s run D is formidable, they are a RB pass funnel team, I believe I read they rank close to dead last vs pass-catching RB’s. Still plenty of opportunity for Kamara in this game.

  • Ricolasvegas

    5 catches for 8 yards… no thx

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @Ricolasvegas said...

    5 catches for 8 yards… no thx

    From Kamara?… Never, If he catches 5 vs the Bucs odds are there’s a lot more than 8 yds

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @squidkill said...

    I grew up with a kid with dwarfism. It was tough. People pointed, stared and messed with him. We were at lollapolooza once and some drunk kids grabbed him and he was forced to crowd surf while he was on mushrooms. I found him 2 miles and 2 hours later. He was dehydrated and his head was half shaved and he only had one shoe. It was a nightmare.

    I forget my point but I miss him.


    ct
    I swear, I will never crowd surf again…
    What’s your policy on mushrooms 👍?

  • realphipps

    Still haven’t settled on a game script, but the Browns defensive line should smash vs that skelton o-line of KC. I’ll be very low on the KC passing game, though Im sure they’re good for 3 TDs.

    I think Cleveland matches up well here, especially with Ward and Johnson back. They are, each, high grade cover corners at their position and allow the defense to be more aggressive. And I have no idea how KC plans on protecting Mahomes. They haven’t done so in weeks.

    On the other side of the ball, the Browns run game should do as they please. I see Chubb and Hunt both over 70 yards rushing here. The Browns o-line vs Chiefs front 7 matchup is a major mismatch in Cleveland’s favor.

    I generally pick the team that “should” own the line-of-scrimmage to win the game, unless the opponent is Mahomes/Rodgers/Brady. But I do think the Browns are being severely undervalued here, from a DFS and Vegas POV.

  • squidkill

    @HoodsFromTheWood said...


    ct
    I swear, I will never crowd surf again…
    What’s your policy on mushrooms 👍?

    dabbled back in the day Hood. not so much recently papa. i don’t frown upon them at all. Even after that traumatic trip of a day

  • squidkill

    @realphipps said...

    Still haven’t settled on a game script, but the Browns defensive line should smash vs that skelton o-line of KC. I’ll be very low on the KC passing game, though Im sure they’re good for 3 TDs.

    I think Cleveland matches up well here, especially with Ward and Johnson back. They are, each, high grade cover corners at their position and allow the defense to be more aggressive. And I have no idea how KC plans on protecting Mahomes. They haven’t done so in weeks.

    On the other side of the ball, the Browns run game should do as they please. I see Chubb and Hunt both over 70 yards rushing here. The Browns o-line vs Chiefs front 7 matchup is a major mismatch in Cleveland’s favor.

    I generally pick the team that “should” own the line-of-scrimmage to win the game, unless the opponent is Mahomes/Rodgers/Brady. But I do think the Browns are being severely undervalued here, from a DFS and Vegas POV.

    this is an interesting take

  • beare

    browns have ward johnson back i dont think kc is a sure thing!!!! why i wont predict a browns win it wouldnt really shock me cause they have the running game to keep kc offense off the field.

  • BIF

    @beare said...

    browns have ward johnson back i dont think kc is a sure thing!!!! why i wont predict a browns win it wouldnt really shock me cause they have the running game to keep kc offense off the field.

    I’ve watched a lot of tape this week and while everyone is high on Hunt (for reasons that include revenge, 2TDs last week and perceived game script), I really think Chubb is the guy to own. The Chiefs can better defend Hunt’s running style and are decent at getting to the edge and runs outside. They struggle with being bullied right up the middle – I know they won 14/15 games they cared about but the Chiefs did give up a lot of yards up the middle and the stats would be way worse if teams actually kept at it but most teams went away from it being down 10+ points. The Bucs fell way behind but RoJo and Lenny did go 12 carries for 76 on them and MG3 put up big numbers as well. I don’t know if the Browns are smart enough to stick with Chubb but he is their best path to success and keeping it close.

    On the other side, Kelce going to have his way – the middle of the field is a wasteland on the Browns and playing TEs against them has been a winning proposition for a few years, now you have the best TE in the game on a 4-game slate – lock and load as the Browns getting back some DBs only make me like 87 even more. I don’t care if he is 60% owned, I’ll be 100% !

    Sammy is still questionable, if he misses then Robinson will also benefit by piling up the intermediate targets – if Sammy is healthy; he’ll be on my Mahomes-Kelce stacks

  • Ricolasvegas

    @HoodsFromTheWood said...

    From Kamara?… Never, If he catches 5 vs the Bucs odds are there’s a lot more than 8 yds

    Sorry, last time these two teams played it was 5 catch for 9 yards not 8 my mad lol. In a Saints blow out weird

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