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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Sunday, January 22nd
    3:05 PM EST : Green Bay ( 4 ) at Atlanta ( -4 ) —- T: 60
    6:40 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 6 ) at New England ( -6 ) —- T: 51

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. Please make it a point to say if you’re talking about Cash or GPP options.

  • BIF

    @heyfeefellskee said...

    I did fine last night, but I’m kind of kicking myself that I didn’t put in any exposure to Julio. I won 100% of my cash contests and hit enough in GPP to make my entry fees back, but having Julio would have certainly put me over the top.

    I think my tried-and-true method all season has been to run 3 RBs and pay up for them (yesterday I faded Bell due to price), taking value at WR where I can. Julio just wouldn’t let me run with a lineup I felt comfortable with.

    3 running backs yesterday would not have been the best strategy given that only Freeman, Coleman and Blount even hit double digits and none cracked 19 points (I’m not counting D Will who was 0.4% owned at best) while 10 WR hit double digits plus Cook at TE.

    Heavily owned Bell/Monty got hurt and Lewis’ usage was incorrectly guessed by many. Playing the 2 ATL RBs worked the best overall and then a 3rd RB was not optimal as instead of Blount you could have played a few WR’s at same/cheaper price that would have been a better play (incl. Sanu and Rogers).

    2 WR hit for 42 points (Julio and Hogan) plus Edelman got 28.8 so those were the top 3 non QB scorers.

  • Fazool

    So my roster had three players total zero points and i still wound up with 144 points in FD, cashed a little bit. Thanks everyone for all the insight, tips, and laughs; helped me out a bunch this year.

  • w3stcoastoff3ns3

    @BIF said...

    Try 209+ with Ty Monty….even Blount puts that at 220+ Points !!!

    That cost me a few thousand in a couple GPPs.

    I had Ryan, Blount, Ty, Edleman, Hogan, Sanu, Cook, Freeman, Pats D. In hindsight I feel a bit cowardly for not stacking Julio and Sanu. I did it with Edleman and Hogan in plenty of my lineups. Should have just gone with both and played Coleman instead of Ty. Oh well. Still made my money back and some on top. Now to focus all of my attention on the NBA where I’m a much stronger player imo.

  • Messiah717

    @Fazool said...

    So my roster had three players total zero points and i still wound up with 144 points in FD, cashed a little bit. Thanks everyone for all the insight, tips, and laughs; helped me out a bunch this year.

    Makes me wish I played FD as well.

  • flea90

    will there be probowl and superbowl GPP again?

  • Messiah717

    @flea90 said...

    will there be probowl and superbowl GPP again?

    Yes, no lineups out yet but you can start to reserve spots on DK now.

  • heyfeefellskee

    @BIF said...

    3 running backs yesterday would not have been the best strategy given that only Freeman, Coleman and Blount even hit double digits and none cracked 19 points (I’m not counting D Will who was 0.4% owned at best) while 10 WR hit double digits plus Cook at TE.

    Heavily owned Bell/Monty got hurt and Lewis’ usage was incorrectly guessed by many. Playing the 2 ATL RBs worked the best overall and then a 3rd RB was not optimal as instead of Blount you could have played a few WR’s at same/cheaper price that would have been a better play (incl. Sanu and Rogers).

    2 WR hit for 42 points (Julio and Hogan) plus Edelman got 28.8 so those were the top 3 non QB scorers.

    Sounds like you’re looking back in hindsight based on how the players actually did vs. how we thought they would do. Sure, playing 3 RBs ended up not working out as well, but using their scores to justify that doesn’t mean it wasn’t the right play.

    I didn’t play Julio because I saw the packers doing everything they could to shut him down, which would open things up for Sanu (who I played).

    TyMont was thought to benefit from being healthy going into the game alongside Cobb since Adams, Nelson, and Allison were banged up.

    And nobody thought Bell would get hurt (didn’t own him at all in cash).

  • Messiah717

    I thought Bell yesterday was the easiest non play that you could ever imagine for him.

  • BIF

    @heyfeefellskee said...

    Sounds like you’re looking back in hindsight based on how the players actually did vs. how we thought they would do. Sure, playing 3 RBs ended up not working out as well, but using their scores to justify that doesn’t mean it wasn’t the right play.

    I didn’t play Julio because I saw the packers doing everything they could to shut him down, which would open things up for Sanu (who I played).

    TyMont was thought to benefit from being healthy going into the game alongside Cobb since Adams, Nelson, and Allison were banged up.

    And nobody thought Bell would get hurt (didn’t own him at all in cash).

    For sure – you were just saying tried and true paying up for 3 RBs is the way to go. Regardless if you took or faded Bell, this week that approach would have busted. Like any position, if you have the right guys, it works. This week WR was a failure too if you paid up for Brown, Any Pack WR and Gabriel but it was great if you paid up for Julio, Edelman.

    I usually am 50+% WR on Flex (highest upside for GPPs) and split the rest with 30-20 with RB and TE on the flex spot.

    In cash games I’m usually much higher with the 3 RBs then WR-TE like 60-35-5 %.

    Some weeks, the WR works for me and some weeks it’s RB or TE. It has a lot more to do with WHO you picked versus what position they play.

    Edit – I should add that I adjust slightly in Dec-Jan to add a little more RB at the expense of WR in poor/cold weather. I hold my TE ownership the same as the short pass doesn’t suffer in bad weather just the long pass usually.

  • heyfeefellskee

    @BIF said...

    Regardless if you took or faded Bell, this week that approach would have busted.

    But that approach didn’t bust this week… Even with a dud from TyMont, the 3 RB lineup scored 163 points—good for ~82nd percentile and 100% win rate in Double Ups and 50/50s.

  • Messiah717

    My approach which I started the week with and stuck to was going with both Freeman and Coleman. I didn’t let myself get sucked into Montgomery, Lewis or Blount. I figured Monty and Lewis had their games the week before and it wasn’t worth chasing what was gained or missed the week before. As for Blount the usage worries made him a no play. Then Bell as I’ve mentioned earlier was the easiest fade decision I’ve ever had for him. Two game slate with a salary that just killed your lineup. Even if he had a 30 point game it wasn’t going to be worth what he sucked out of the rest of the your lineup.

  • BIF

    @heyfeefellskee said...

    But that approach didn’t bust this week… Even with a dud from TyMont, the 3 RB lineup scored 163 points—good for ~82nd percentile and 100% win rate in Double Ups and 50/50s.

    C’mon – you have to realize that your 3 RB’s had zero to do with you cashing especially with Monty being one of them

    163 points is 3.26x value on a points/$K of salary basis.

    The top 2 scoring RB’s got 18.4 and 15.4 plus Monty at 2.9 – so at most that is 36.7 points on almost $18K of salary or 2x value.

    Removing your defense from the equation, you got 120+ points from your remaining 30K of salary for 4x value. If you didn’t pick the right WR/TE along with Ryan/Brady (and not Rodgers/Ben) you would not have cashed.

    I’m not saying the 3 RB thing doesn’t work but it is way more about who you play and what position they play. The people who played 3 RBs with Bell, Monty and Lewis definitely didn’t cash.

  • heyfeefellskee

    @BIF said...

    C’mon – you have to realize that your 3 RB’s had zero to do with you cashing especially with Monty being one of them

    163 points is 3.26x value on a points/$K of salary basis.

    The top 2 scoring RB’s got 18.4 and 15.4 plus Monty at 2.9 – so at most that is 36.7 points on almost $18K of salary or 2x value.

    Removing your defense from the equation, you got 120+ points from your remaining 30K of salary for 4x value. If you didn’t pick the right WR/TE along with Ryan/Brady (and not Rodgers/Ben) you would not have cashed.

    I’m not saying the 3 RB thing doesn’t work but it is way more about who you play and what position they play. The people who played 3 RBs with Bell, Monty and Lewis definitely didn’t cash.

    You continue to have a retrospective look that is based on results instead of projections, which is going to lead to a lot of inaccurate conclusions.

  • BIF

    @heyfeefellskee said...

    You continue to have a retrospective look that is based on results instead of projections, which is going to lead to a lot of inaccurate conclusions.

    I give up

  • deactivated204643

    @Messiah717 said...

    These weekly NFL threads are awesome. Helped me out a lot and made me a better player. It’s very valuable being able to talk about players and lineups with more experienced players and even just all players in general. Great job RotoGrinders and thank you to everyone who participates.

    I can’t say it better. Thanks, everyone..

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