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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Saturday, January 6th
    4:35 PM EST : Tennessee ( 7.5 ) at Kansas City ( -7.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    8:15 PM EST : Atlanta ( 5.5 ) at LA Rams ( -5.5 ) —- T: 48.5

    Sunday, January 7th
    1:05 PM EST : Buffalo ( 7.5 ) at Jacksonville ( -7.5 ) —- T: 40
    4:40 PM EST : Carolina ( 6 ) at New Orleans ( -6 ) —- T: 48.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NBA thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • 33BeRad

    @mike42 said...

    D. Baldwin 12 tgts out of 30, nobody else > 4 tgts
    Nuk- 9 tgts out of 23 attempts, Nobody else > 5 tgts
    A. Cooper 10 tgts
    AB 9 tgts, nobody else >2 tgts
    OBJ 11 tgts (they spread around the other 33)
    A. Adams 12 tgts

    On these teams, who had much of a workhorse back(or run game for that matter) they could lean on in the playoffs besides Pitt with Bell?

  • Blee21985

    Thoughts on Jonathan Stewart this week? Still early in planning but his recent success toward the end of the season and 3500 has me coming back to him over and over. I’m thinking if Carolina can they want to run the ball early and often to try and control the clock. Or is his price fools gold?

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @Blee21985 said...

    Thoughts on Jonathan Stewart this week? Still early in planning but his recent success toward the end of the season and 3500 has me coming back to him over and over. I’m thinking if Carolina can they want to run the ball early and often to try and control the clock. Or is his price fools gold?

    Hard for me to click on a player at any price, that’s had one usuable scoring week since week 1, inactive Sunday due to back issues with the mileage/injury history of Stewart

  • Blee21985

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    Hard for me to click on a player at any price, that’s had one usuable scoring week since week 1, inactive Sunday due to back issues with the mileage/injury history of Stewart

    Other option I was exploring was no Stewart and going two TE with Clay and Walker. What do you think of that, I don’t think I’ve used two TE on DK this year, is that a sound strategy or typical strategy?

  • JH822547

    Are they going to have any of the normal NFL shows / podcasts in the lead up to Wild Card Weekend?

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @33BeRad said...

    Aside from their 3 garbage division opponents they also held the Tolzien led Colts and the Savage led Texans. Stats can be skewed to paint the narrative we want. Just throwing out the whole picture. I can see them holding an underwhelming Falcon team to under 20

    Edit: I shouldn’t say 3 garbage division opponents because their last game was against Jimmy G but they sat starters.

    Those garbage division opponents had 23 wins between them. And that garbage division had more .500+ teams than 6/8 other garbage divisions. Ain’t parity a mother in law, I mean bit#$. Narratives can be skewed to paint the stats also lol I don’t even know what that means but it felt good typing it. Besides Atlanta’s O is unimposing

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    I’ll take Rams D, you take Atl O, and I’ll be in Scotland before ye

  • Logan7777

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    Hard for me to click on a player at any price, that’s had one usuable scoring week since week 1, inactive Sunday due to back issues with the mileage/injury history of Stewart

    Week 14 against MIN. 16/103/3 and only other time over 100 yards this season. He’s a 10 year running back, that’s past the prime. I’m looking elsewhere.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    Lol the force is strong with this one. Two TE’s could work. Seen that strategy used before. Stewart could work also. Seen the cheap RB strategy used also. We had a phrase back in the day when I bowled , “trust is a must or your game is a bust”. Lol a bowling reference on a football thread. Point is, if you TRUST a play than play it. Don’t let someone else get you off it. As for the “soundness” of a strategy, strategy is like an opinion, which in turn are like A-hol#s, we all have ‘em

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    Lol the force is strong with this one. Two TE’s could work. Seen that strategy used before. Stewart could work also. Seen the cheap RB strategy used also. We had a phrase back in the day when I bowled , “trust is a must or your game is a bust”. Lol a bowling reference on a football thread. Point is, if you TRUST a play than play it. Don’t let someone else get you off it. As for the “soundness” of a strategy, strategy is like an opinion, which in turn are like A-hol#s, we all have ‘em

    Except my mother in law who seems constipated all the time

  • Messiah717

    Not sure about two tight ends on a small slate.

  • Logan7777

    @Messiah717 said...

    Not sure about two tight ends on a small slate.

    TE are are crap shoot. One for me. Looking at Kelce. Maybe Hooper to save some salary. Clay is enticing too

  • 33BeRad

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    Narratives can be skewed to paint the stats also lol

    Well played sir! LOL!

  • theghostofveebs

    @mike42 said...

    I think ATL is actually the team most likely to pull an upset. A lot of times the young out of nowhere team gets bounced game 1 by the veteran savvy team. ATL’s D has been mostly impressive down the stretch and the O started using the backs in the passing game which was missing most of the season. I’m going to use the ATL backs and maybe even count on the ATL D to give Goff trouble in his first playoff start.

    +1

  • deactivated204643

    According to PFF Atlanta’s overall offense is one the highest graded in the league and is still overdue for positive regression in the form of more passing tds and fewer int. I really didn’t use Ryan or Julio until late in the year when I thought they might cash in on that but for the most part they still haven’t. Being it’s all short slate from here on out I’m sure I’ll use a lot of players I wouldn’t normally play.

  • Jokey401

    @JH822547 said...

    Link

    B

  • Jokey401

    @JH822547 said...

    Are they going to have any of the normal NFL shows / podcasts in the lead up to Wild Card Weekend?

    Good question. Anyone?

  • BIF

    @33BeRad said...

    Who is going to be the random back to score or go off?

    Henry because they won’t let Mariota lose it for them until they are behind 2 scores.

  • deactivated204643

    @Jokey401 said...

    Good question. Anyone?

    I haven’t read/heard anything about RG podcasts but Levitan will still have the daily fantasy edge in the next day or so and I think Raybon will still have his 4for4 podcast on Thursday.

  • BIF

    @mike42 said...

    I think ATL is actually the team most likely to pull an upset. A lot of times the young out of nowhere team gets bounced game 1 by the veteran savvy team. ATL’s D has been mostly impressive down the stretch and the O started using the backs in the passing game which was missing most of the season. I’m going to use the ATL backs and maybe even count on the ATL D to give Goff trouble in his first playoff start.

    I think Jax destroys Buf, Fournette was the first lock I saw this week. Shady’s backup and/or Clay should be in play. If Tyrod passes it 35x this game they should get a lot of those targets because the matchups on the outside are heavily in favor of Jax. No way shady plays and is effective this week. If he was a power runner, maybe, but he’s a lateral quickness guy and that ankle will limit him even if he does see the field.

    D. Henry is not a good RB. His size and speed make you think he could be great but I’ve never seen a big back run sideways and backwards as much as him. He doesn’t break a lot of tackles either, he needs an Alabama sized hole to look good and not many of those in the playoffs.

    You are going to start seeing the DE’s chip Gurley/Kamara when they are coming out of the backfield on pass plays. I’ve been waiting for it and I saw TB do it which usually ends a screen play. These play action screens that seem to be the bread and butter of LA/NO should get schemed out. All you got to do is chip the RB and the QB has to throw it in the ground since the lineman release, there is not second read on these plays because it would just draw an illegal man downfield penalty. The way these guys are used is different than the way NE/ATL used RB’s last year when they ran routes but were not the only read which is more difficult to defend. I’m fading Kamara/Gurley for the most part and want to pay up for WR’s/TE’s for this reason:

    Stud TE’s and number one WR’s get used more in the playoffs. Kelce or Julio are more likely to dud in the regular season than the post season and also more likely to smash in the post season. Teams lean more towards their studs in the playoffs. Julio hasn’t hit value in a majority of his regular season games the last 2 years but has more of a chance to do so in the postseason. Kelce has had a bunch games with limited targets/production in the regular season, less likely to experience one this weekend. I like Michael Thomas too, think all 3 combine for 35 tgts this weekend and at least 2 smash. Contrarian this weekend should be paying up for the high priced pass catchers but I think it’s also the right move.

    There is a lot of goodness in this post Mike – nice analysis. Agree on the chips and hits on the RBs, despite Kamara beasting fantasy wise on the Bucs last week – they didn’t let him be the difference maker in the end and plan B ark Ingram was a non factor.

    I’m feeling the same way on ATL keeping this one closer than Vegas thinks but I’m struggling with seeing a SU win because Sarkisian will find a way to fuck that up by getting ultra conservative too early or else throwing on 2nd down in the last 3 minutes when a clock eating run is the right call.

    As long as the Jags are winning or only down 3, Fournette will have the most touches on the slate. I like the play a lot if Shady misses as that’ll mean probably better field position and more offensive plays for the Jags.

    There are 3 punt WRs on the slate and a punt TE whom I like so every one of my lineups will have at least one of them as salary is a real issue this week. Hard to get more than 4 studs in a lineup so thenyou have to decide if 6-7 lesser studs is better fantasy wise than 4 mega-studs. There are going to be a bunch of under owned players because of salary.

  • miggs6876

    @mike42 said...

    Edelman smashed too as the number one and Julio got 11 tgts last week which would put him in play any week. I don’t think it’s flawed logic but Julio may be a bad example. Teams tend to go to their number one options more in the passing game in the playoffs so the volume is more dependable and volume is the best predictor of production. Of course you want to use that angle in the better matchups but overall I think it’s a reliable trend for the playoffs. I have not delved into any of the matchups for any of the top WR options and I’m not even sure who that person will be for Jax/Ten, but my early take is that’s a solid angle to explore.

    BTW- It’s supposed to be in the 40’s in KC this weekend so weather may not be a concern anywhere.

    By your logic teams go to their number 1 players in the playoffs. Gurley is a beast and hasn’t been stopped all year. He is dangerous in running and passing. Atl sucks at stopping pass catching backs. You seem to imply Gurley will be stopped by Atlanta chipping him at the line. Mike that is absurd. Additionally, McVay is so innovative that he will get and feed Gurley. Also, I’m not sold on Atl defense. Your logic is flawed. Now, I don’t like Gurleys price and not sure of his ownership. Those are bigger concerns for me than Atl stopping Gurley.

  • miggs6876

    @Blee21985 said...

    Other option I was exploring was no Stewart and going two TE with Clay and Walker. What do you think of that, I don’t think I’ve used two TE on DK this year, is that a sound strategy or typical strategy?

    I think I’m paying up for Kelce. He should be heavily involved in the passing game.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    Murray’s not gonna play so I expect Henry to at least get some chances to punch it in. If you want a random RB scenario prediction, Gurley rumbles 46 yds on a screen(sry Mike) and gets tackled at the 7. While he’s catching his breath on the sideline, last weeks chalk, M. Brown runs it in on the next play

  • Dunzor

    My entire roster construction looks like it’s gonna come down to whether the injured RBs can play. I really need the salary relief on FD of either Henry or Murphy as my RB2 to build a team that I like, so I’m really hoping we get word that one of them is out prior to game time. Also I’m calling it now, the NFC home teams will win (and likely cover) and one of the AFC home teams is gonna play poorly and get upset by a team that has no business winning a playoff game

  • IrishCarBomb9

    I’m usually a chalk donkey so my DK lineup construction guess would be: cheaper QB (Alex Smith probably) pay up for the top RBs (Gurley/Kamara/Fournette) cheap Wrs (Decker, RMatthews, Dede, etc) low price TE (Clay?) and then any DEF besides JAX (because of price).

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