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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Saturday, 1/4
    4:35 PM EST : Buffalo ( 3 ) at Houston ( -3 ) —- T: 42
    8:15 PM EST : Tennessee ( 5 ) at New England ( -5 ) —- T: 44

    Sunday, 1/5
    1:05 PM EST : Minnesota ( 8 ) at New Orleans ( -8 ) —- T: 47
    4:40 PM EST : Seattle ( -1 ) at Philadelphia ( 1 ) —- T: 46

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • joephoto

    @ronron6 said...

    FD slates r trash they can’t even give the tickets away… satellites with more guaranteed tickets then entry’s. Then try to add a slate for the entire weekend without any big contest lol 🤦‍♂️

    I deposited into FD this year for a deposit bonus.
    I played the “beat the score 135” game exclusively and it was fun.
    You’re right. They really just want to give the winners “tickets”.

  • joephoto

    @mike42 said...

    should make ceiling games from RB’s hard to come by. On the other hand, top WR’s always seem to get peppered with targets in the playoffs. Basically, my first read is paying up for WR’s and going light on Henry/Cook.

    What about a RB getting peppered with targets ? Maybe James White ?

  • 33BeRad

    @mike42 said...

    Thielen- Slot Vs NO’s may be a thing if he still plays it. I’m wondering if Kirk can put up numbers in a losing effort. Maybe NO’s TD’s come in different ways but Minny’s all come through the air. Either way, I think NO’s wins. They’ve looked focused lately.

    RB’s Vs WR’s- Who to spend up for?
    Last week in a bunch of meaningless games for most teams RB’s smashed at a pretty extreme level. I “think” this week you pay up for WR’s in cash and GPP’s. It’s literally the opposite type of environment as last week and that should make ceiling games from RB’s hard to come by. On the other hand, top WR’s always seem to get peppered with targets in the playoffs. Basically, my first read is paying up for WR’s and going light on Henry/Cook.

    Well I like Thomas and Edelman at the top. Not sure how I feel about Nuk, Diggs and Brown though.
    Do we think Belichek will stack the box and make Tanny beat them? With Gilmore on Brown that could open up Davis(who just missed a TD last week) Sharpe or Jonnu
    How do we feel about Lattimore on Diggs?
    Nuk should get plenty of targets, is White going to shadow and can he slow him down enough to not pay off salary?

    Which game will be the unexpected shootout?

  • cheezpizza

    CJGJ has been a revelation in the slot for the Saints. I wouldn’t go that route.

  • timusbr

    @yisman said...

    Any NFL team on their best day is capable of beating any other team. This just proves Aikman is an idiot.

    well its a tough thing when you bleed a teams colors but you try not to show it. I do prefer the way Michael Irving does it.

  • yisman

    Texans said JJ Watt and Fullerv will be active.

  • timusbr

    I have a hard time picking which defense to go with. Maybe it would be a good pivot point for multiple entries. I think there is a difference from the best option and the most upside. One team might sack, intercept, or special teams their way to the DST Best pick.

    any thoughts?

  • steveharvey

    @33BeRad said...

    Do we think Belichek will stack the box and make Tanny beat them?

    Not with the way he’s been playing this year

  • mike42

    @FantasySultan said...

    Thielen hasn’t been himself since hurting his Hammy against Detroit and then coming back way too early and reaggravating it. Vikings offense has gone into the shitter since Thielen got hurt.

    IDK if he is going to be healthy or not, but I think the risk/reward isn’t bad compared to ownership. Diggs going to getting shadowed and NO’s solid Vs the run, TE’s and pass catching backs. The only place you target in general is a second WR/Slot WR. Two weeks off could have helped the cause or maybe not or maybe the line will get owned again and it won’t matter. The total is getting bet up in this game and spread is holding steady or moving down which means Minny should be able to put up some points.

  • squidkill

    @timusbr said...

    I have a hard time picking which defense to go with. Maybe it would be a good pivot point for multiple entries. I think there is a difference from the best option and the most upside. One team might sack, intercept, or special teams their way to the DST Best pick.

    any thoughts?

    Hard time? Isn’t t everyone on the Titans? And if not. Why???????????

  • mike42

    @joephoto said...

    What about a RB getting peppered with targets ? Maybe James White ?

    Or Rex? He looked good when I saw him down the stretch. TEN’s run D is better than their secondary so I’m guessing that Edelman and maybe another WR on NE should have good days. Edelman (if healthy) and MT seem like the starting points for me this week and most weeks you want to start at RB.

  • mike42

    @cheezpizza said...

    CJGJ has been a revelation in the slot for the Saints. I wouldn’t go that route.

    WHo is that? Honest question. Has someone been playing at a high level down the stretch at slot SB for NO’s?

  • mike42

    @timusbr said...

    I have a hard time picking which defense to go with. Maybe it would be a good pivot point for multiple entries. I think there is a difference from the best option and the most upside. One team might sack, intercept, or special teams their way to the DST Best pick.

    any thoughts?

    If Watt is back, I don’t mind taking a shot at HOUS Vs a young, mistake prone QB playing in his first playoff game. Everyone seems to be betting on BUF but I trust Watson more than Allan and while the better team may be BUF I think the more experienced team with the better QB playing at home probably wins this one.

  • mike42

    @squidkill said...

    Hard time? Isn’t t everyone on the Titans? And if not. Why???????????

    That’s it Squid? I know they are not going to win the SB but you think they lose in the wild card round? Man, I’m disappointed in how anticlimactic this all is. We used to battle back and forth about the dynasty ending and now you are suggesting playing an average D at Gillette stadium wild card weekend because NE sucks.

    I didn’t watch the Miami game but my first read was they beat TEN even though I don’t have a strong feeling either way. You sold on NE getting knocked out this weekend?

  • timusbr

    @squidkill said...

    Hard time? Isn’t t everyone on the Titans? And if not. Why???????????

    Forgive me but at this point in time, I think we can convince ourselves on multiple different outcomes.

    For myself I see Ten D as mediocre. Although I am mostly an anti PAT fan, I play them for money. They got 3 RB’s that can move the ball, They got receivers, they got a GOAT at QB and I would say the best Head Coach in NFL history. The only way I see Ten DST being a good pick is if the Offense of Ten rolls on the Patriots with Henry getting 150 yards allowing Tannehill to throw the ball. I vote against that scenario.

  • squidkill

    @mike42 said...

    That’s it Squid? I know they are not going to win the SB but you think they lose in the wild card round? Man, I’m disappointed in how anticlimactic this all is. We used to battle back and forth about the dynasty ending and now you are suggesting playing an average D at Gillette stadium wild card weekend because NE sucks.

    I didn’t watch the Miami game but my first read was they beat TEN even though I don’t have a strong feeling either way. You sold on NE getting knocked out this weekend?

    Sad ain’t it? Unless this team does a complete 180. I think it might be over. I’ve watched enough and my eyes tell me the offense is toast. Now can the defense step up and take this game?? Yep they could. But this offense is just not getting any better.

  • timusbr

    @mike42 said...

    If Watt is back, I don’t mind taking a shot at HOUS Vs a young, mistake prone QB playing in his first playoff game. Everyone seems to be betting on BUF but I trust Watson more than Allan and while the better team may be BUF I think the more experienced team with the better QB playing at home probably wins this one.

    tough game. I think Buf Def is real. I also think the Watson/Hopkins combo is one not to underestimate. They had a week off…. As a fan I love to see Watt back, He wont be quick enough to grab Allen. Houstons Def is porous all the way around.

  • mike42

    @timusbr said...

    tough game. I think Buf Def is real. I also think the Watson/Hopkins combo is one not to underestimate. They had a week off…. As a fan I love to see Watt back, He wont be quick enough to grab Allen. Houstons Def is porous all the way around.

    Not all the way around. They had a good run D until Watt went down and I think he will be in game shape since his legs should be fine. Their secondary might be a little better with everyone healthy. Either way, most of my call is just Allan being mistake prone QB playing in his first playoff game on the road.

    I liked BUF when I first saw the line but I just don’t think Hous lays another egg at home after they did just that last year in wild card weekend. They got a veteran team that has improved almost everywhere from last year’s version and Watson is the real deal. It also didn’t help that last year Nuk got injured on the first play which literally meant they had no receiving options for the whole game with Fuller already being out too. I see the same Houston team you see but I just think they let what happened last year motivate them to show up this year. Also, that Indy team last year with Luck was pretty legit, this BUF team probably isn’t. Biggest wins were Vs PIT and DAL. Lots of reasons to believe BUF may be the fraud but the perception is Hous isn’t that good.

  • timusbr

    @mike,
    thanks for the give and take.
    Since my first post of the week here, Ive been looking and planning my 4 game classic strategy. I think I am going with a Stack ( NO is my choice for most points this week ) Use several Defenses and switch up other players. Looking to go with 3-5 entries. I just cant finish it without the inactives list. That picture will clear up later in the week.

  • Logan7777

    @squidkill said...

    Hard time? Isn’t t everyone on the Titans? And if not. Why???????????

    And just 10 days ago you said “Jesus Hood. Pats are still a thing”. Did Vs MIA week 17 change that mindset?

  • bcandrws

    @mike42 said...

    Not all the way around. They had a good run D until Watt went down and I think he will be in game shape since his legs should be fine. Their secondary might be a little better with everyone healthy. Either way, most of my call is just Allan being mistake prone QB playing in his first playoff game on the road.

    I liked BUF when I first saw the line but I just don’t think Hous lays another egg at home after they did just that last year in wild card weekend. They got a veteran team that has improved almost everywhere from last year’s version and Watson is the real deal. It also didn’t help that last year Nuk got injured on the first play which literally meant they had no receiving options for the whole game with Fuller already being out too. I see the same Houston team you see but I just think they let what happened last year motivate them to show up this year. Also, that Indy team last year with Luck was pretty legit, this BUF team probably isn’t. Biggest wins were Vs PIT and DAL. Lots of reasons to believe BUF may be the fraud but the perception is Hous isn’t that good.

    Would you say Houston D is better than NEs I wouldn’t I think NEs is better by a long shot and in the buffalo NE game I saw allan complete a TD pass to John brown to burn Gilmore and none of houston CBs are even remotely on that level

  • bcandrws

    @mike42 said...

    Not all the way around. They had a good run D until Watt went down and I think he will be in game shape since his legs should be fine. Their secondary might be a little better with everyone healthy. Either way, most of my call is just Allan being mistake prone QB playing in his first playoff game on the road.

    I liked BUF when I first saw the line but I just don’t think Hous lays another egg at home after they did just that last year in wild card weekend. They got a veteran team that has improved almost everywhere from last year’s version and Watson is the real deal. It also didn’t help that last year Nuk got injured on the first play which literally meant they had no receiving options for the whole game with Fuller already being out too. I see the same Houston team you see but I just think they let what happened last year motivate them to show up this year. Also, that Indy team last year with Luck was pretty legit, this BUF team probably isn’t. Biggest wins were Vs PIT and DAL. Lots of reasons to believe BUF may be the fraud but the perception is Hous isn’t that good.

    Also in regards to being mistake prone. Watson I understand is a better QB than allan, but allan only has 9 int on the season he has turned those big mistakes way down. That’s even with playing NEs D this year

  • odanny

    I think Houston is just too unreliable to bet on, there’s no telling what Houston team shows up Saturday but I’m liking Buffalo, at the very least to cover the spread, and think they win outright.

    Normally I would never bet against the Pats in Foxboro but this year just feels different. Can they stop Derrick Henry, and if they do that, can Gilmore stop Brown? Fitz challenged him Sunday and beat him multiple times. I don’t have enough confidence in Tenn. to bet them over NE in NE though. This will be a good one to watch. Should beat the over 43.5.

    Minnesota at New Orleans, probably gonna bet this one down to -7 New Orleans, to be safe, not sure yet. I think New Orleans puts a beatdown on Minnesota, so -8 is doable. I also like New Orleans in Green Bay.

    Seattle-Philly, if Seattle had Carson in the backfield, I’d surely like Seattle, but I’m not sure Lynch does much over 4 quarters, and it will be the Russell Wilson show, again, in Philly. They’ve already won there this year, twice in the same year? I kinda like Philly to win this one, and if had to bet, would take Philly and the points. Like Houston, it’s hard to tell which of these teams shows up to play. I certainly would not lay points with Seattle.

  • Smallchimp

    What are the most likely paths for success for each of these teams?

    Buffalo: I don’t see how they deviate from rushing. Houston doesn’t have a world-beating rush defense and with the season on the line, I don’t imagine they put Allen into a position where he needs to make more passes than are essential. Their defense can win them this game if their offense doesn’t stall out completely. I’d imagine this would make Singletary ($6000) the game flow-preferred play. He takes passes out of the backfield when needed as well, so I’m not especially worried about him being entirely TD dependent.

  • Smallchimp

    @Smallchimp said...

    What are the most likely paths for success for each of these teams?

    Houston: They need to be able to get up on the Bills and put Allen in a position where he’s going to make major mistakes. Buffalo is in the top 5 of passing defenses, but a supporting cast of DeAndre Hopkins ($7700) and Will Fuller ($4900) gives Watson ($6400) more than enough to work with. Given the need for Houston to make Allen lose the game for his team, I’d imagine the Texans D/ST ($2600) would have a part in this game script. If they can get up on Buffalo, someone like Hyde ($5100) would see extended run.

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