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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Saturday, 1/4
    4:35 PM EST : Buffalo ( 3 ) at Houston ( -3 ) —- T: 42
    8:15 PM EST : Tennessee ( 5 ) at New England ( -5 ) —- T: 44

    Sunday, 1/5
    1:05 PM EST : Minnesota ( 8 ) at New Orleans ( -8 ) —- T: 47
    4:40 PM EST : Seattle ( -1 ) at Philadelphia ( 1 ) —- T: 46

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • Smallchimp

    @Smallchimp said...

    What are the most likely paths for success for each of these teams?

    Tennessee: If the Titans can play their run-first brand of football with Henry ($8200) successfully, chances are they win this. NE isn’t the team to come back from a major deficit with the offense they have and if they can play a game where they burn the clock down nonstop with efficient carries, they can win. Their defense ($2400) is a little scary to rely on in January in Gillette, but if Brady makes mistakes like last game, they can do their part to bury the team. Obviously Henry has worked his way into Belichick’s defensive focus, but AJ Brown ($7400) can be confident that Gilmore isn’t unbeatable after last week.

  • Supanice

    Playing Jones over Henry cost me $30k on Sunday.

    This slate will be decided by fading or not fading a combination of Henry and Thomas.

    If you are playing the Milly you are going to need 3 guys under 10%. My guess is Duke Williams, eagles te2, and maybe just double Duke it?

    Happy New year lads, may we all be blocked by tax forms when trying to withdraw.

  • tonysrizz09

    Both Thielen and Cook were hurt for the last 3rd of the season. They are saying they should be fully healthy for the playoff game. Although one can speculate if they are truly 100%.

  • cheezpizza

    @mike42 said...

    WHo is that? Honest question. Has someone been playing at a high level down the stretch at slot SB for NO’s?

    CJ Gardner Johnson.
    He started getting opportunity in October and with the injuries to the secondary has been all over.
    But the slot has been his most common position.
    He has one of the lowest completion rates among rookie DBs.

  • JH822547

    I’m having to put one of the NE WR’s in to get what I want elsewhere. Listed in order of preference.

    Although they’ve gone a bit cold on Dorsett he is the big play guy.

    Sanu 3.9K
    Dorsett 3.2K
    Harry 4.1K
    Meyers 3.1K

  • marker0357

    Harry
    Sanu
    Dorsett
    Meyers

    IMO

  • BIF

    Still a few spots left

    NFL Sat 3:35 PM CST – $3 entry – 37/50 spots filled *** https://www.draftkings.com/contest/draftteam/84008094

  • mike42

    Happy New Year forum.

    So much of predicting any game, especially in the playoffs, is just what team is going to show up. Is it the best version of Minny, Hous, etc…, or the worse or somewhere in between. Along those lines:

    Hous- Watson to Jordan comparison has some validity to it. The guy plays with punctured lungs and throws TD’s after getting kicked in the face. My strongest feeling this weekend is a Watson led veteran Houston team shows up and plays 10x better than they did last year in this spot. I think Hous controls this one throughout, wins easily.

    Minny- Everyone has that MNF GB game in their heads but I think the Minny O can put up points in a losing effort. I’m definitely going overweight the Minny side and part of my reasoning is the early (usually sharp) line moves are telling me too. Also, they’ve basically had a bye week which was needed. They have a lot to of weapons on O and I’m guessing they’ve spent time figuring out how to get Cousins time to find them. He’s my favorite sneaky QB and I’ll possibly have more Cooks than Henry. I think Minny focuses on a short passing game and can get a ton of YAC from Cooks and company.

    Ten- I just don’t think we’ve been given any reason to believe Ten won’t show up and NE will. I do think BB sells out to stop the run and leaves his elite slew of CB’s more vulnerable than usual. Keep in mind that NE’s front 7 is more likely to struggle with elite athletes than Henry types. I know Henry is a good athlete but he’s not generally going to make u miss in space, he’s got straight line speed but lacks lateral quickness in a big way. I don’t think this is as good of a matchup for Henry as it would be Vs an undersized/speedy type of front. I trust in BB and NE’s ability to maintain gap integrity, gang tackle, and limit Henry from having a ceiling game. I like the Ten pass catchers more than most, especially J. Smith. Need to figure out how healthy Edelman is but I’m on Rex for sure.

    Philly/Sea- I trust Sea/RUSs a little bit more than Philly just because of injuries and not by much. I’m still feeling this one out and really not really sold on anything. I’m mostly trying to figure out how likely it is to shootout after the first matchup did anything but. There is credence to the second matchup being different than the first but it’s hard seeing where the O is going to come from for Philly for me as of now. I’m wondering if we are putting too much weight on 2 wins Vs the Giants and 1 Vs a heartless DAl team. Pretty sure betting on the team that won the NFC least is a bad idea but Philly does one thing well when it matters; they show up EVERY time.

  • nam6641

    • x2

      2016 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    @mike42 said...

    Happy New Year forum.

    So much of predicting any game, especially in the playoffs, is just what team is going to show up. Is it the best version of Minny, Hous, etc…, or the worse or somewhere in between. Along those lines:

    Hous- Watson to Jordan comparison has some validity to it. The guy plays with punctured lungs and throws TD’s after getting kicked in the face. My strongest feeling this weekend is a Watson led veteran Houston team shows up and plays 10x better than they did last year in this spot. I think Hous controls this one throughout, wins easily.

    Minny- Everyone has that MNF GB game in their heads but I think the Minny O can put up points in a losing effort. I’m definitely going overweight the Minny side and part of my reasoning is the early (usually sharp) line moves are telling me too. Also, they’ve basically had a bye week which was needed. They have a lot to of weapons on O and I’m guessing they’ve spent time figuring out how to get Cousins time to find them. He’s my favorite sneaky QB and I’ll possibly have more Cooks than Henry. I think Minny focuses on a short passing game and can get a ton of YAC from Cooks and company.

    Ten- I just don’t think we’ve been given any reason to believe Ten won’t show up and NE will. I do think BB sells out to stop the run and leaves his elite slew of CB’s more vulnerable than usual. Keep in mind that NE’s front 7 is more likely to struggle with elite athletes than Henry types. I know Henry is a good athlete but he’s not generally going to make u miss in space, he’s got straight line speed but lacks lateral quickness in a big way. I don’t think this is as good of a matchup for Henry as it would be Vs an undersized/speedy type of front. I trust in BB and NE’s ability to maintain gap integrity, gang tackle, and limit Henry from having a ceiling game. I like the Ten pass catchers more than most, especially J. Smith. Need to figure out how healthy Edelman is but I’m on Rex for sure.

    Philly/Sea- I trust Sea/RUSs a little bit more than Philly just because of injuries and not by much. I’m still feeling this one out and really not really sold on anything. I’m mostly trying to figure out how likely it is to shootout after the first matchup did anything but. There is credence to the second matchup being different than the first but it’s hard seeing where the O is going to come from for Philly for me as of now. I’m wondering if we are putting too much weight on 2 wins Vs the Giants and 1 Vs a heartless DAl team. Pretty sure betting on the team that won the NFC least is a bad idea but Philly does one thing well when it matters; they show up EVERY time.

    Rex over James White? Seems like White is always post season big time.

  • BIF

    @mike42 said...

    Happy New Year forum.

    So much of predicting any game, especially in the playoffs, is just what team is going to show up. Is it the best version of Minny, Hous, etc…, or the worse or somewhere in between. Along those lines:

    Happy New Year Mike – all the best in 2020 !

    I’m not sure yet on these games – I’ve already waffled on a couple games; initially I was on Buffalo but starting to come your way as in the playoffs the better QB usually wins and Allen is not Watson yet (or ever). The reason I liked Buff early was over last 11 games, Allen only has 2 INT and 2 Fumbles – he has been ultra efficient given the number of times he has handled the ball (drop backs and carries).

    Leaning to Tenn as well but hard to discount the last 15 or so years and BB’s ability to throw together the right game plan to do just enough. Not sure I’ll play much Tanny but he will be the reason they win or lose and I doubt it is Brown or Henry who go off; expecting pretty even distribution so Im playing the cheap Titans (Sharpe, Davis, Jonnu and maybe we even get a Dion Lewis “F-U BB” revenge TD to seal the game).

    Hard for me to like the Vikings here to win but both teams have enough defensive weaknesses to make both teams in play for DFS.

    I was watching live as the lines got posted on Bet365 offshore and this game opened at Philly -3 and now it is Seattle -1.5 or -2. Not surprising the public is on the Seahawks but I’m still leaning the other way in a higher scoring game. Definitely going to have some late hammer stacks in this one. This is my pick for highest scoring game of the weekend assuming weather is not an issue. Also will have a few 4/game lineups with only Sunday players hoping the two Sat games are duds with nobody cracking 16 points

  • Hoods From The Wood

    @mike42 said...

    Hous- Watson to Jordan comparison has some validity to it. The guy plays with punctured lungs and throws TD’s after getting kicked in the face. My strongest feeling this weekend is a Watson led veteran Houston team shows up and plays 10x better than they did last year in this spot. I think Hous controls this one throughout, wins easily.

    Happy New Year

    I think you might be underestimating the Bill D (especially if Wallace can play effectively on that ankle, limited in practice today) and their bend/don’t break run D philosophy. I don’t think either team controls throughout but if one did, I think Buffalo has the better chance to be that team. People think the Bills can be run on because they stack the box less than any other D but they’re top 12 in least yds/TDs given up to RBs while the Texan D has given up the 10th most yds on the ground to RBs and only 7 teams have given up more TDs to the RB position than Houston. I believe the Bills will be able to stay within their “we’re a running team philosophy” a lot easier/longer than run first teams like Tenn/Minny/Sea will. Which in turn opens up the play-action to John Brown, who might be too fast for Roby/Joseph to cover on the fast-track of NRG even if they were healthy which they’re not. The only reason I’m thinking the game stays close is Watson. Like Jordan, he does make the players around him better. I’m just not sure that Jordan was as dependent on Pippen as Watson is on Fuller. And I just don’t recall Pippen being as fragile as Fuller lol. And as usual, Houston has issues on the OL, specifically the right side. Tho if any QB can succeed under the pressure I think the Bills D has him under a good part of the game, Watson can. Arm angles, no problem. Play breaks down gotta improvise, no problem. I think Buffalo shows up this game, Watson puts the O on his back, again, and we have a well fought competitive game

  • Pick1979

    There is plenty of merit in tourneys on small slate’s by differentiating by leaving some $ on the table when there are not many “sure” things and especially when there is value plays.

    That being said I would likely include Thomas and Henry in many of my lineups this week because they are head and shoulders above the next tier of guys and Value right now is not looking very good

  • keephustlincuz

    @Pick1979 said...

    Value right now is not looking very good

    Value may open up later in the week.

  • mike42

    @nam6641 said...

    Rex over James White? Seems like White is always post season big time.

    IDK, I’ve thought about that and you may be right. Right now it doesn’t feel like they can rely on a whole lot of players but Rex is in the trust circle. Kind of hoping for 12-15 touches but it’s far from certain and ownership will reflect that. They need to rely on pass catching backs in the playoffs and I don’t think they can play Sony much as a result.

  • mike42

    @keephustlincuz said...

    Value may open up later in the week.

    Where? I’ve got D. Moore on my radar if he gets the undisputed 3 WR role for SEA but what else are you looking at? Really looks like Fuller/Cook play and IDC what scrub plays for Philly, the main guys are priced up. I just don’t see where value would open up.

  • mike42

    @BIF said...

    Happy New Year Mike – all the best in 2020 !

    I’m not sure yet on these games – I’ve already waffled on a couple games; initially I was on Buffalo but starting to come your way as in the playoffs the better QB usually wins and Allen is not Watson yet (or ever). The reason I liked Buff early was over last 11 games, Allen only has 2 INT and 2 Fumbles – he has been ultra efficient given the number of times he has handled the ball (drop backs and carries).

    Leaning to Tenn as well but hard to discount the last 15 or so years and BB’s ability to throw together the right game plan to do just enough. Not sure I’ll play much Tanny but he will be the reason they win or lose and I doubt it is Brown or Henry who go off; expecting pretty even distribution so Im playing the cheap Titans (Sharpe, Davis, Jonnu and maybe we even get a Dion Lewis “F-U BB” revenge TD to seal the game).

    Hard for me to like the Vikings here to win but both teams have enough defensive weaknesses to make both teams in play for DFS.

    I was watching live as the lines got posted on Bet365 offshore and this game opened at Philly -3 and now it is Seattle -1.5 or -2. Not surprising the public is on the Seahawks but I’m still leaning the other way in a higher scoring game. Definitely going to have some late hammer stacks in this one. This is my pick for highest scoring game of the weekend assuming weather is not an issue. Also will have a few 4/game lineups with only Sunday players hoping the two Sat games are duds with nobody cracking 16 points

    Sports gambling became legal in my home state today. It’s kind of cool that I can be onsite and live bet for the playoffs and I will be doing just that. I did it Sunday in Indiana which is right by where I coach BBALL pretty much every day. I may hold back a little on some games and just watch value open up after someone scores or doesn’t score. The bookies I’m friends with always tell me how much they get pounded on live betting. The halftime money line for SEA (to W the game) was like +880 or something like that and they came a yard away from pulling it out.

    I’m glad you like the over in the SEA game because I was leaning that way. My gut tells me the public is going to overvalue BUF and underestimate Hous and this forum is reinforcing that belief. If I see that line go from 2- or minus 3 even to closer to a pick’m on saturday, I’ll pound Hous and make it my big game for the week. I’m not seeing the same line movement on the Philly game on vegasinsider. It looks like it opened at SEA 1 and has either stayed there or moved to 2 depending on the spot. It might have just been a bad line that got corrected immediately and was never even released at most places.

    Still piecing together a lot of things and have not read a whole lot, think the Holidays delayed POWN and some of the articles. I’m getting my deposit back on DK today at some point so I’ll try to join your contest if you still have spots. Just sent back the e-mail before this post.

  • keephustlincuz

    @mike42 said...

    IDC what scrub plays for Philly

    Are Ertz and sanders gonna play?

  • Logan7777

    So is it Wilson /Lockett game or a Wilson/Metcalf game? I’m not familiar enough with PHI Def to make that call. Can somebody enlighten me?

  • squidkill

    @keephustlincuz said...

    Are Ertz and sanders gonna play?

    Ertz has a lacerated kidney. So He’s probably not gonna see a football field for awhile

  • keephustlincuz

    @squidkill said...

    Ertz has a lacerated kidney. So He’s probably not gonna see a football field for awhile

    Thanks squid. Busy with the holidays.. I missed that news.

  • squidkill

    @mike42 said...

    Sports gambling became legal in my home state today. It’s kind of cool that I can be onsite and live bet for the playoffs and I will be doing just that. I did it Sunday in Indiana which is right by where I coach BBALL pretty much every day. I may hold back a little on some games and just watch value open up after someone scores or doesn’t score. The bookies I’m friends with always tell me how much they get pounded on live betting. The halftime money line for SEA (to W the game) was like +880 or something like that and they came a yard away from pulling it out.

    I’m glad you like the over in the SEA game because I was leaning that way. My gut tells me the public is going to overvalue BUF and underestimate Hous and this forum is reinforcing that belief. If I see that line go from 2- or minus 3 even to closer to a pick’m on saturday, I’ll pound Hous and make it my big game for the week. I’m not seeing the same line movement on the Philly game on vegasinsider. It looks like it opened at SEA 1 and has either stayed there or moved to 2 depending on the spot. It might have just been a bad line that got corrected immediately and was never even released at most places.

    Still piecing together a lot of things and have not read a whole lot, think the Holidays delayed POWN and some of the articles. I’m getting my deposit back on DK today at some point so I’ll try to join your contest if you still have spots. Just sent back the e-mail before this post.

    Gee Mike you gonna be at those rest stops in no time. Happy new year. I’m here to say Houston is a crap ass team. Without Fuller that offense crumbles. If White coverS D hop pretty good and the offense becomes one dimensional. Without a healthy Fuller. He’ll probably play BUT late season Hammy and groin injuries?? Ya no thanks

  • squidkill

    @keephustlincuz said...

    Thanks squid. Busy with the holidays.. I missed that news.

    Didn’t know u celebrated any of this up North. Happy New Year

  • keephustlincuz

    @squidkill said...

    Didn’t know u celebrated any of this up North. Happy New Year

    Haha. Same to you. We celebrate up here.

    We send you a tree every year.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston_Christmas_Tree

  • mike42

    @Logan7777 said...

    So is it Wilson /Lockett game or a Wilson/Metcalf game? I’m not familiar enough with PHI Def to make that call. Can somebody enlighten me?

    Phily usually struggles on the outside a lot more than the inside. I’ve been a little more hesitant on DEEBO/Metcalf than I should have been this year. Uusally, young WR’s don’t do the type of things that a bunch of them did this year so there must be credence to how these guys are getting to the NFL more ready than ever before. Matchups would say Metcalf, he’s the prototype for what Philly struggles with.

  • marker0357

    @mike42 said...

    Sports gambling became legal in my home state today. It’s kind of cool that I can be onsite and live bet for the playoffs and I will be doing just that. I did it Sunday in Indiana which is right by where I coach BBALL pretty much every day. I may hold back a little on some games and just watch value open up after someone scores or doesn’t score. The bookies I’m friends with always tell me how much they get pounded on live betting. The halftime money line for SEA (to W the game) was like +880 or something like that and they came a yard away from pulling it out.

    I’m glad you like the over in the SEA game because I was leaning that way. My gut tells me the public is going to overvalue BUF and underestimate Hous and this forum is reinforcing that belief. If I see that line go from 2- or minus 3 even to closer to a pick’m on saturday, I’ll pound Hous and make it my big game for the week. I’m not seeing the same line movement on the Philly game on vegasinsider. It looks like it opened at SEA 1 and has either stayed there or moved to 2 depending on the spot. It might have just been a bad line that got corrected immediately and was never even released at most places.

    Still piecing together a lot of things and have not read a whole lot, think the Holidays delayed POWN and some of the articles. I’m getting my deposit back on DK today at some point so I’ll try to join your contest if you still have spots. Just sent back the e-mail before this post.

    Hey Mike, watch for specials on in-state teams. When Indiana became legal a few months ago, they ran specials on all Indiana college teams and the Colts. Things like bet the ML on the Colts and get $6 for every TD scored. Really nice incentives actually.

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