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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Saturday, January 9th
    1:05 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 6.5 ) at Buffalo ( -6.5 ) —- T: 51.5
    4:40 PM EST : LA Rams ( 4.5 ) at Seattle ( -4.5 ) —- T: 42.5
    8:15 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( -7.5 ) at Washington ( 7.5 ) —- T: 46.5

    Sunday, January 10th
    1:05 PM EST : Baltimore ( -3.5 ) at Tennessee ( 3.5 ) —- T: 54.5
    4:40 PM EST : Chicago ( 9.5 ) at New Orleans ( -9.5 ) —- T: 47.5
    8:15 PM EST : Cleveland ( 3.5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -3.5 ) —- T: 46.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • rjschick92

    Brady doesn’t want to get hit by those pass rushers. Think we see quick dump off passes to RoJo or intermediate Edelman style routes for Godwin. Off AB if Evans plays as I don’t think the targets will be there.

  • timusbr

    most of what I have seen has NO kicking the bears around. Kamara’s going to go off.
    maybe…the bears did win earlier this year. I thought the bears defense was so so. I bitched about everyone knows Kamara is gonna touch the ball 80% of the time, someone has to shadow him. We got the LB’ers to do it. I cant believe I am saying this…, but Trubiski has looked better. (Gee Nagy, think a running game helps your QB).
    Taking the Bears and the points, using the defense in DFS
    Ind over Buf
    Sea over LAR
    TB over Was
    Ten over Bal – Henry again for the cash
    Pit over Cle

  • superjon

    TE is stupid as always on short slates. So much chalk everywhere, I really don’t want to eat it at TE. Here’s who I have right now (most to least)

    Higbee
    Burton
    Everett
    Thomas
    Gronk
    Knox
    Doyle

  • BigRay

    @rjschick92 said...

    intermediate Edelman style routes for Godwin.

    This. Since Godwin’s return he and Brady look to be on the same page. Mike will play but Godwin will be the man. Gronk against those LB’s should be good to go as well.

  • Falconsfly

    Hey Guys, this GOd win talk gas for me thinking. I’m in a non salary playoff leagues so I essentially can pick anyone. As of now, I put DIGGS and AJ brown as my WRs. For some reason, Brown isn’t settling well w me and I have Henry. Would you leave it or pivot to Godwin, Robinson, etc full ppr. Thanks! Appreciate all the insight

  • kdsdawg

    @superjon said...

    Which of those 3 previous teams did Brady play for?

    while not Brady
    Brees nor Big Ben were slouches on two of those losses

  • Brendan239

    I think DangerRuss might be the pivot off of chalky Allen/Brady w Lockett and J Brown over Diggs. I love Logan Thomas today but might go to Higbee and hope for a score. The TB WR is what I’m battling w but I’m heavy AB. Let’s not forget who he was a couple of years ago between the lines. Effing Michael Thomas esque (?sp). Also thinking of throwing David Moore in a LU, he gets a TD like every other game and he or Pacal will prob oddly enough be a guy you need.

  • Stangs13

    Is pascal normally in the slot for Indy? I know historically they have ran more 12 personnel taking away the slot wr.

  • monarch

    @Stangs13 said...

    Is pascal normally in the slot for Indy? I know historically they have ran more 12 personnel taking away the slot wr.

    Yes but it is pretty fluid. They will put everyone in the slot, TEs, Hines, Pittman, TY throughout the game.

  • WrathofKhaaan

    @wesdaco said...

    I don’t know, Tampa (and most importantly, their passing game) seems to be the hottest team entering these playoffs not named Buffalo.

    I know how good Washington’s D is and I’ve been a fan all year, but I’d be shocked if this game was close

    Imo people are too high on the Bucs offense in this matchup due to recency bias.

    Look at their last 4 games, all bottom 5 defenses:
    ATL
    DET
    ATL
    MIN

    On the contrary, WFT is one of the best teams in the league against the pass. The Footballers are No. 2 with an 83.4 PFF coverage grade and -18.0% pass-defense DVOA.

    Opposing receiver units are No. 28 against them with 2,321 yards and No. 31 with 10 touchdowns receiving.

    Without question, a large part of its success is due to the defensive line. Washington is No. 5 with an 81.4 PFF pass-rush grade and No. 7 with a 7.9% adjusted sack rate.

    I think WFT’s DST gets home and Brady and co. struggle more than expected.

  • kdsdawg

    @WrathofKhaaan said...

    Imo people are too high on the Bucs offense in this matchup due to decency bias.

    Look at their last 4 games, all bottom 5 defenses:
    ATL
    DET
    ATL
    MIN

    On the contrary, WFT is one of the best teams in the league against the pass. The Footballers are No. 2 with an 83.4 PFF coverage grade and -18.0% pass-defense DVOA.

    Opposing receiver units are No. 28 against them with 2,321 yards and No. 31 with 10 touchdowns receiving.

    Without question, a large part of its success is due to the defensive line. Washington is No. 5 with an 81.4 PFF pass-rush grade and No. 7 with a 7.9% adjusted sack rate.

    I think WFT’s DST gets home and Brady and co. struggle more than expected.

    playing the Wash defense in several L/Us

  • wesdaco

    @WrathofKhaaan said...

    Imo people are too high on the Bucs offense in this matchup due to decency bias.

    Look at their last 4 games, all bottom 5 defenses:
    ATL
    DET
    ATL
    MIN

    On the contrary, WFT is one of the best teams in the league against the pass. The Footballers are No. 2 with an 83.4 PFF coverage grade and -18.0% pass-defense DVOA.

    Opposing receiver units are No. 28 against them with 2,321 yards and No. 31 with 10 touchdowns receiving.

    Without question, a large part of its success is due to the defensive line. Washington is No. 5 with an 81.4 PFF pass-rush grade and No. 7 with a 7.9% adjusted sack rate.

    I think WFT’s DST gets home and Brady and co. struggle more than expected.

    I get all that, but you can also spin it around on Washington. They’re in the worst division in football so the stats should be somewhat inflated – and their last 4 against some really bad offenses (Philly having a whole quarter without hurts, Carolina, a struggling Seahawks team and then a depleted San Fran team)

    As a fan, I want this game to be close. I hope Washington comes out and plays like they did against Dallas and Pittsburgh but it’s only been a week. I don’t see much changing. Fingers crossed

  • ifthethunder

    @WrathofKhaaan said...

    decency bias

    My new favorite phrase.
    ~

  • marker0357

    @timusbr said...

    most of what I have seen has NO kicking the bears around. Kamara’s going to go off.
    maybe…the bears did win earlier this year. I thought the bears defense was so so. I bitched about everyone knows Kamara is gonna touch the ball 80% of the time, someone has to shadow him. We got the LB’ers to do it. I cant believe I am saying this…, but Trubiski has looked better. (Gee Nagy, think a running game helps your QB).
    Taking the Bears and the points, using the defense in DFS
    Ind over Buf
    Sea over LAR
    TB over Was
    Ten over Bal – Henry again for the cash
    Pit over Cle

    Buf over Ind – close throughout, late game INT of Rivers when Ind is trying to come back from a 4 pt deficit. 24-20.
    LAR over Sea – close game throughout, possibly OT, Akers will break at least 1 run for 20+ yds, neither QB effective. 23-20 in OT.
    TB over WAS – this game will be decided by PI call(s) with a lot of controversy, once again with Brady SOMEHOW advancing against a game WAS DST. 24-21.
    Ten over Bal – best game of the weekend by far. Lots of scoring here. Lamar will nearly pull it off putting the team on his shoulders but falls just short against an effective pass action Ten squad. Henry will run for about 110 but not score! Tanny will pass for 3-4 TD’s and run 1 in. 35-31.
    NO over Chi – biggest spread of the weekend. Bears will play better than expected or NO worse than expected, maybe both but the spread will still be 10+ against my Bears. It will be all MT, Tay Tay, and Cook. Run it back with ARob and Cordelle. There could be a special teams score in this one! 31-21.
    Pit over Cle – There will be alot of mistakes (read TO’s) in this game. Pit will dink and dunk all day and finally connect on a long one or a PI, probably to Claypool. Baker will make too many mistakes, including trying to take on too much on his own. 23-21.

  • ifthethunder

    P.S. As mentioned earlier, DK Sportsbook has a ‘double your money if a TD is scored this weekend.’ Max bet is $25. I had to opt-in twice (2nd time I viewed the terms and opted in that way) to get the odds-boost to show.

    It’s as close to a free $25 as you can get.
    ~

  • WrathofKhaaan

    @ifthethunder said...

    My new favorite phrase.
    ~

    Haha just noticed that 😂

  • Ricolasvegas

    Alex Smith looks like he’s not playing today. Leaving a starting $4100 QB available. It’s gross but then you can play whoever you want in the same lineup. Probably a disaster for WFT tho

  • jayzee666

    It can be said that the WFT hasn’t played a good offense the whole season, specifically the last 6 weeks or so. Pitts has good attack but that may have been during their 3 game in 12 day period.

    6 games in their division and we know how awesome those teams were.

    They have a good Def but imo they haven’t been tested the whole year. Should be interesting to see which side wins out.

    Def still in play in DFS but SEA/LAR is probably best option.

  • superjon

    Washington’s 7 wins

    PHI
    PHI
    DAL
    DAL
    CIN
    PIT
    SF

    All bottom half of the league offenses.

    In their 9 losses, they are giving up about 26 points per game (30 or more in 5 of them), and about 3 TDs per game.

    They are a 7-9 team, and the only reason they are in the playoffs is because someone from each division gets a spot.

    Tampa lights them up tonight.

  • jd1984

    @Ricolasvegas said...

    Alex Smith looks like he’s not playing today. Leaving a starting $4100 QB available. It’s gross but then you can play whoever you want in the same lineup. Probably a disaster for WFT tho

    How do you think Mckissic and Logan Thomas look if Alex Smith out?

  • Ricolasvegas

    Just as good as before imo. Lol, inexperienced QBs often look for the safe dump offs to TE and RB. They may also try to lean on Gibson more but not sure how that’s gonna pan out for them

  • RatedDAL

    Mckissic will be fine with whoever is there if they’re playing catchup which is a pretty likely game script.

  • Brendan239

    Off Scary Terry now?

  • ifthethunder

    @jd1984 said...

    How do you think Mckissic and Logan Thomas look if Alex Smith out?

    WFT fan here. Taylor Heinicke is as likely to look their way in the short-passing game as Alex Smith. However, the concern is sustaining drives. (Also, Antonio Gibson will be sharing touches with McKissic.)

    Our best chance in this game was our DST plus a blizzard, but the weather looks pretty good for the Northeast in January.

    2nd best chance was DST plus Smith and company sustaining some drives and putting a few points on the board.

    I can see why the spread has moved to TB +9 at DK.
    ~

  • squidkill

    Its ok people are too high on the Bucs. We want that. This is the type of defense that gives Brady trouble. It’s not gonna be pretty for Tommy- Lots of hurries- Not the best draw for TB- I don’t think Washington can muster enough firepower to beat them, but it won’t be easy

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