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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    6:30 PM EST : Kansas City ( -3 ) at Tampa Bay ( 3 ) —- T: 56.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • sdmurrz59

    I definitely gave Hardman and Pringle a captain spot on Draftkings showdown for this very reason, they expect Hill and Kelce… I expect the other guys to be involved more in response to TB taking extra caution with Hill and Kelce

  • superjon

    @Ricolasvegas said...

    Bradys SB DK pts per game are 21.4.

    Bradys last 4 SB DK pts per game 26

    Pretty crazy to think we actually have a decent sample size for these numbers.

  • odanny

    Put $40 on Watson going to Miami at +600. Miami gives up Tua, the #3 and #18 pick in this years draft, and then next year’s #1.

    Tua goes to Houston and with the #3 pick they replace the departed Hopkins with Davonte Smith, and bring back college championship glory between QB and WR.

  • superjon

    @odanny said...

    Put $40 on Watson going to Miami at +600. Miami gives up Tua, the #3 and #18 pick in this years draft, and then next year’s #1.

    Tua goes to Houston and with the #3 pick they replace the departed Hopkins with Davonte Smith, and bring back college championship glory between QB and WR.

    I think a lot of Tua’s issues were nerves that he’ll be able to overcome, and I’d like to see him for a full year especially if Miami does draft Davonte.

  • superjon

    First big trade. Stafford for Goff

  • odanny

    @superjon said...

    First big trade. Stafford for Goff

    Lions also get two first round picks, which means between Stafford and Ramsey, the Rams won’t be drafting in the first round for years to come. At least they dumped that massive contract, and McVey has a competent QB.

  • factorial89

    someone in nevada has placed a bet of 2.3 million dollars on tampa bay plus 3.5 pts.

  • TopDawgs07

    I have a lot of faith in Tampa Bay in this game. I do think they’ll limit Hill and give a little to Kelce. Hope for FGs in the red zone as well. I think the difference will be getting pressure with their front 4. Losing Fisher will be something KC looks back on and realizes it was huge.

  • homers1226

    im not betting against kc ,in dfs

    they always find a way

  • klf_is_gonna_rock_ya

    RoJo in the captain spot allows for some kick ass lineups.

  • sdmurrz59

    @klf_is_gonna_rock_ya said...

    RoJo in the captain spot allows for some kick ass lineups.

    Yep, I used him a lot

    As far as the game here is my take:

    Tampa Bay wins the game but KC wins DFS Showdown

  • mike42

    @BIF said...

    I’m a little scared of that scenario – glad we have 2 weeks to prepare. I’d definitely double Hill and with respect to Kelce, we have to be physical and disrupt him off the line. He will get his but we have to make it a long day for him and be physical.

    I don’t feel like we have to sack Mahomes a bunch (it would be great if we could) but I’d rather see us keep him in the pocket and not allow him to improvise because that’s where guys like Hill and Hardman run away from coverage and bust highlight reel plays. Just force Mahomes to run the play as designed and I think we have a chance to get some stops.

    KC Losing Fisher should help us get a bit of a pass rush on him and getting our safeties Winfield and Whitehead back should help us support in coverage.

    On offense, I hope we have some semblance of success running it but we are not going to play a low scoring game vs Chiefs – we will have to throw and score 28-35 to win. The first game was 27-24 and while you can say KC let up after getting out to a big lead, yes maybe a little but it was still all the 1’s playing and they didn’t exactly light it up in the second half as the Bucs made it close. Regardless we need to score and Arians has proven he a hard time staying committed to the run.

    Congrats buddy. I put a bunch of money on TB winning the SB and thought it was dead but I guess you can’t ever count out Brady. I think Squid has kept track of how many times I’ve tried. The crazy thing is, it was your D and a GB D that was probably a little overrated that were instrumental last week.

    Why do you think ARians has a hard time committing to the run? They ran 35x Vs an elite NO’s run D despite trailing for most of that game. I keep reading what you are saying but he has committed to the run this postseason. They are running out more on early downs than analytics would suggest is even wise. My early lean is they do run it a lot out of 2 TE sets, play action off it to set up the TE’s and some shots downfield to WR’s. WR’s struggle vs KC, but the running game and RB’s/TE’s catching passes are all to be had. Brady loves Gronk in man to man situations, so I love him, even more than Brate, who I also like if I’m right about TB relying more on 12 personnel.

    As far as KC’s O goes, I’m not writing off the possibility that they score a bunch of points, but I’m also a little higher on the possibility that they don’t. KC is 4-4 without Fischer at LT and it’s not a completely random stat, we both know what an all-pro caliber LT means to an O, which is way more than the average fan thinks. Regardless of how good Mahomes is, if that pocket is constantly collapsing and they have no run game whatsoever, 2 very realistic possibilities, they will have a hard time getting anywhere near their projected total. That’s why I think I think a 27-23 type game can be a path to TB winning.

    Tb should have “some” success running the ball, sustaining drives, and getting to the QB. It’s also very realistic that they have a lot of success doing all 3. We’ve seen more SB’s recently (10-20yrs) decided by the D-line, or even just a DE, than any of us thought possible. KC lost one of its top 5 most important players but it won’t move the line despite feeding into TB’s strength and KC’s weakness as of late. I think the clearest path to victory is the most obvious, TB dominates upfront on both sides of the ball and Brady is more of an ancillary piece than anything else. Everyone remembers KC looking good the last 2 weeks and wrote off the second 1/2 of the year, but your D coupled with what amounts to a sieve of an O-line for KC, has the capacity to make KC’s O look mortal.

    Anyway, good luck. I’m definitely on your side. Not sure I’m even going to hedge my futures bet and I’d be rooting for Brady either way. What’s most amazing about his story is watching Bree’s or remembering Manning at this stage in their careers. Also, keep checking the weather. Rain and 15MPH would help TB’s cause and make the under look even better than it already does.

  • TopDawgs07

    Robinson on the Covid list due to close contact.

    EDIT: Robinson is on the Covid list. Could enhance Hardman!

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @TopDawgs07 said...

    Hardman on the Covid list due to close contact.

    Methinks it’s Robinson

  • BIF

    @mike42 said...

    Why do you think ARians has a hard time committing to the run? They ran 35x Vs an elite NO’s run D despite trailing for most of that game. I keep reading what you are saying but he has committed to the run this postseason. They are running out more on early downs than analytics would suggest is even wise.

    I guess my comment was more about of TB fell behind early by 7-10 as against KC you don’t really want to get another score down and Arians likely starts throwing in that case. Yes he has ran a lot in the playoffs but we have also had the lead (and was tied with NO) for the better part of the 180 minutes in those 3 games. This one may not go on the same script.

    I think we have some good winnable matchups so I’m hopeful and optimistic, but the sum of the pieces on the KC offense is still a beast.

    Either way, we got here and the immediate future still looks bright for at least another year…..

  • Rhawe00

    Incorrect. Robinson is the one on the covid list. Not Hardman.

  • mike42

    @BIF said...

    I guess my comment was more about of TB fell behind early by 7-10 as against KC you don’t really want to get another score down and Arians likely starts throwing in that case. Yes he has ran a lot in the playoffs but we have also had the lead (and was tied with NO) for the better part of the 180 minutes in those 3 games. This one may not go on the same script.

    I think we have some good winnable matchups so I’m hopeful and optimistic, but the sum of the pieces on the KC offense is still a beast.

    Either way, we got here and the immediate future still looks bright for at least another year…..

    It feels like whenever there is a big game that is projected to be a shootout, I mean totals don’t go higher than 56- in the NFL, massive duds seem to happen way more than we think. I mean, 2 TD+ away from the total type games. Like the Rams/NE SB or what feels like 40% of whatever the chalky game of the week is in DFS. 2 weeks to prepare, TB not having to take risks on D and inevitably keeping everything in front of them, odds of rain increasing, and a 80% chance that TB isn’t playing from 14+ behind for most of the game which is what a FG spread suggests.

    I think the odds of TB controlling this game are as good as the odds that KC “blows up.” Yo have to admit, in general (early downs, tight games), TB has run the ball a lot more than anyone thought. If they are playing the 31st run D in the rain, there is a universe where they run the ball 35x (again) for 150+ yds.

    Lenny’s run Vs GB was proly the best run of NFL career. He was avoiding holes early in the year, on that run, he created all of It on his own. Talk about least likely player to ever be a feel good story. He was hard to like personally and professionally, now he’s easy to root for.

  • TopDawgs07

    @Rhawe00 said...

    Incorrect. Robinson is the one on the covid list. Not Hardman.

    That’s my fault, I was thinking about how this enhances Hardman and typed his name. It is definitely Robinson on the Covid list.

  • TopDawgs07

    BIF, what are your thoughts on RoJo vs. Lenny? During the playoffs, it appears the roles have reversed. Is Lenny really the guy? Does it have anything to do with RoJo still recovering from injuries?

  • squidkill

    @mike42 said...

    Congrats buddy. I put a bunch of money on TB winning the SB and thought it was dead but I guess you can’t ever count out Brady. I think Squid has kept track of how many times I’ve tried. The crazy thing is, it was your D and a GB D that was probably a little overrated that were instrumental last week.

    Why do you think ARians has a hard time committing to the run? They ran 35x Vs an elite NO’s run D despite trailing for most of that game. I keep reading what you are saying but he has committed to the run this postseason. They are running out more on early downs than analytics would suggest is even wise. My early lean is they do run it a lot out of 2 TE sets, play action off it to set up the TE’s and some shots downfield to WR’s. WR’s struggle vs KC, but the running game and RB’s/TE’s catching passes are all to be had. Brady loves Gronk in man to man situations, so I love him, even more than Brate, who I also like if I’m right about TB relying more on 12 personnel.

    As far as KC’s O goes, I’m not writing off the possibility that they score a bunch of points, but I’m also a little higher on the possibility that they don’t. KC is 4-4 without Fischer at LT and it’s not a completely random stat, we both know what an all-pro caliber LT means to an O, which is way more than the average fan thinks. Regardless of how good Mahomes is, if that pocket is constantly collapsing and they have no run game whatsoever, 2 very realistic possibilities, they will have a hard time getting anywhere near their projected total. That’s why I think I think a 27-23 type game can be a path to TB winning.

    Tb should have “some” success running the ball, sustaining drives, and getting to the QB. It’s also very realistic that they have a lot of success doing all 3. We’ve seen more SB’s recently (10-20yrs) decided by the D-line, or even just a DE, than any of us thought possible. KC lost one of its top 5 most important players but it won’t move the line despite feeding into TB’s strength and KC’s weakness as of late. I think the clearest path to victory is the most obvious, TB dominates upfront on both sides of the ball and Brady is more of an ancillary piece than anything else. Everyone remembers KC looking good the last 2 weeks and wrote off the second 1/2 of the year, but your D coupled with what amounts to a sieve of an O-line for KC, has the capacity to make KC’s O look mortal.

    Anyway, good luck. I’m definitely on your side. Not sure I’m even going to hedge my futures bet and I’d be rooting for Brady either way. What’s most amazing about his story is watching Bree’s or remembering Manning at this stage in their careers. Also, keep checking the weather. Rain and 15MPH would help TB’s cause and make the under look even better than it already does.

    Yes, you have doubted him more than you have Crowns; but I digress. I was dabbling and looking over some props. If you think TB has a shot, I’d probably try and correlate the TB ML (+148) and Tommy as the MVP at +210. Sucks u can’t parlay the two on DK

  • BIF

    @mike42 said...

    It feels like whenever there is a big game that is projected to be a shootout, I mean totals don’t go higher than 56- in the NFL, massive duds seem to happen way more than we think. I mean, 2 TD+ away from the total type games. Like the Rams/NE SB or what feels like 40% of whatever the chalky game of the week is in DFS. 2 weeks to prepare, TB not having to take risks on D and inevitably keeping everything in front of them, odds of rain increasing, and a 80% chance that TB isn’t playing from 14+ behind for most of the game which is what a FG spread suggests.

    I think the odds of TB controlling this game are as good as the odds that KC “blows up.” Yo have to admit, in general (early downs, tight games), TB has run the ball a lot more than anyone thought. If they are playing the 31st run D in the rain, there is a universe where they run the ball 35x (again) for 150+ yds.

    Lenny’s run Vs GB was proly the best run of NFL career. He was avoiding holes early in the year, on that run, he created all of It on his own. Talk about least likely player to ever be a feel good story. He was hard to like personally and professionally, now he’s easy to root for.

    Agreed and Playoff Lenny has become a fan favorite – I keep sending the video clip every day of his spin move and TD vs Green Bay to a buddy who is a Pack fan letting him know they made Lenny look like Barry Sanders.

    I do recall a big run of his in Jax for a TD but yah that was a great run and unexpected given RoJo was back as RB1 just 4-5 weeks ago.

  • BIF

    @TopDawgs07 said...

    BIF, what are your thoughts on RoJo vs. Lenny? During the playoffs, it appears the roles have reversed. Is Lenny really the guy? Does it have anything to do with RoJo still recovering from injuries?

    I think it’s Lenny as the 1 and RoJo a close second where both get work but Lenny likely gets more touches.

    The problem in DFS is he is a lot more expensive than RoJo so will the production justify the price ? I think the opportunity is there and likely goalline carries but RoJo has better big-play equity as he is faster – though his opportunities are not as guaranteed and he may not see any goalline work.

  • klf_is_gonna_rock_ya

    I don’t see how you cannot play rojo. He’s $2200

  • homers1226

    i dont see how everyone can be so interested in a thrown together team, mostly rentals
    kc has a core whitin a core,,3 are match up proof

    kc 30ish
    tb 20ish

  • BlueEdwards

    There’s an interesting prop parlay available:

    Fournette rushes for 50+ yards and Bucs win +250

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