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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    6:30 PM EST : Kansas City ( -3 ) at Tampa Bay ( 3 ) —- T: 56.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • BIF

    @klf_is_gonna_rock_ya said...

    I don’t see how you cannot play rojo. He’s $2200

    Last 3 playoff games

    0 at Washington – dressed but didn’t play
    6.2 at New Orleans
    1.6 at Green Bay

    Any of those results are great reasons to watch everyone else play him while you play a kicker for a little more who puts up double digits

  • squidkill

    @klf_is_gonna_rock_ya said...

    I don’t see how you cannot play rojo. He’s $2200

    Seriously? Do me a huge favor, You play rojo and send me a DK invite Squidcity12

    Send it

    Ty

  • squidkill

    @homers1226 said...

    i dont see how everyone can be so interested in a thrown together team, mostly rentals
    kc has a core whitin a core,,3 are match up proof

    kc 30ish
    tb 20ish

    You realize over 70% of the money is on KC right?

    Also, it’s the Super Bowl, they been working together all year to get to this point.

    It s not week one of a “thrown together team”

  • ronking1980

    Tom will consider retirement after he gets demolished

  • klf_is_gonna_rock_ya

    @squidkill said...

    Seriously? Do me a huge favor, You play rojo and send me a DK invite Squidcity12

    Send it

    Ty

    That hurts my feelings.

  • squidkill

    @klf_is_gonna_rock_ya said...

    That hurts my feelings.

    no feelings in here ….. it’s a safe space for middle age balding men who have a lifetime of broken dreams……

    gotta have some thick skin in here papa….. but still send it

  • klf_is_gonna_rock_ya

    @BIF said...

    Last 3 playoff games

    0 at Washington – dressed but didn’t play
    6.2 at New Orleans
    1.6 at Green Bay

    Any of those results are great reasons to watch everyone else play him while you play a kicker for a little more who puts up double digits

    Wasn’t he hurt v Washington? I see what you’re saying but, I think the Bucs will try to run the ball against the poor KC run defense and rojo should be able to outscore his $2200 salary.

  • bigez952

    @klf_is_gonna_rock_ya said...

    Wasn’t he hurt v Washington? I see what you’re saying but, I think the Bucs will try to run the ball against the poor KC run defense and rojo should be able to outscore his $2200 salary.

    Green Bay is a team that typically easier to attack on the ground and he got 1.6 with no injury concerns. He is far from a free square or lock in my opinion even at $2200 but at that price if he just lucks into a 1 yard TD along the way he would pay off. He for sure isn’t going to get a massive volume where he can’t miss no matter what.

  • BIF

    @homers1226 said...

    i dont see how everyone can be so interested in a thrown together team, mostly rentals
    kc has a core whitin a core,,3 are match up proof

    kc 30ish
    tb 20ish

    Thrown together team ?
    The Bucs have been built from within the draft more than maybe any other team in the league !

    6 starters on offense and 8 starters on defense are Bucs draft picks.

    They addressed one big need through Free Agency – the Quarterback position.

    When they got Gronk, they still had a healthy OJ Howard who was going to be built into what Gronk was for the Patriots and Gronk was there to protect Brady. Howard got hurt for the season so Gronk’s role expanded.

    Fournette was added because he was cheap ($1M) and it gave us depth behind RoJo – yes he has blossomed in the playoffs but RoJo was RB1 most of the reg season.

    Antonio Brown has only played in half the games and we could debate how much value he has added relative to Scotty Miller and Tyler Johnson at WR.

    This is last season’s Buccaneers team with a Jameis for Brady swap and a couple role players added – if you see it any differently, you have not been paying attention.

    As far as rentals go, there is going to be some change for sure in the off-season but the Bucs have $30M of free cap space so in top half of teams in the league with cap space – Bucs do have a few key players who become Free Agents to deal with including Godwin, Lavonte David and Shaq Barrett plus the one year deals AB and Lenny signed but there is a good chance 3-4 of them are back because we have Brady for at least one more year and he will be a key reason guys will take slightly less money or a cap-friendly deal to stay in Tampa.

    Not disagreeing with you on KC’s big 3 and the score could very well be as you say but despite multiple sub .500 seasons the last couple of years, the Bucs have been building from within and finally gave up on Winston once his contract was done and also because he almost single handedly turned an 11-5 or 12-4 season last year into 7-9 thanks to blown leads, pick-sixes and late game INTs.

  • odanny

    Out of the last 7 Super Bowls where the same teams met in the regular season, 5 of those Super Bowls were won by the team who lost in the regular season. This year, make it 6.

  • BIF

    @bigez952 said...

    Green Bay is a team that typically easier to attack on the ground and he got 1.6 with no injury concerns. He is far from a free square or lock in my opinion even at $2200 but at that price if he just lucks into a 1 yard TD along the way he would pay off. He for sure isn’t going to get a massive volume where he can’t miss no matter what.

    RoJo will make or break lineups – if he scores a TD and even puts up just a total of 10-12 fantasy points, that could be enough to be needed if the Kickers are only scoring extra points (not FGs) and top salaries all don’t go crazy where the Optimal is 5 of the top salaries and a $200 guy who gets 6.1 or 7.1 off a 1yd TD run or pass.

    I think 100% RoJo is crazy but 100% fade is also crazy.

    I’ll end up underweight to the field around 20-25% and hope he busts and that the Bucs score via the pass and/or through Lenny

  • klf_is_gonna_rock_ya

    @BIF said...

    RoJo will make or break lineups – if he scores a TD and even puts up just a total of 10-12 fantasy points, that could be enough to be needed if the Kickers are only scoring extra points (not FGs) and top salaries all don’t go crazy where the Optimal is 5 of the top salaries and a $200 guy who gets 6.1 or 7.1 off a 1yd TD run or pass.

    I think 100% RoJo is crazy but 100% fade is also crazy.

    I’ll end up underweight to the field around 20-25% and hope he busts and that the Bucs score via the pass and/or through Lenny

    Thanks BIF. You like evans or Godwin more?

  • jdtrey

    @BIF said...

    that the Bucs score via the pass and/or through Lenny

    And we know Tommy loves to sneak from the 1!

  • BIF

    @klf_is_gonna_rock_ya said...

    Thanks BIF. You like evans or Godwin more?

    Lean to Evans for TD equity but Godwin likely has more catches and is healthier.

  • TopDawgs07

    When looking at LUs, I keep coming back to trying to decide how I build LUs based on the QB. Do you want both, or just one, and if just one, which way do you lean. I actually think TB wins a close game, but if that plays out, its hard for me to decide what to make of Mahomes. KC doesn’t run the ball with any great consistency. Stopping the run and and defending pass catching RB’s is a specialty for TB. For TB to win this game, I think they need to get a lot of pressure with their front 4. Eric Fisher being out is big. His replacement is Mike Remmers. The same OT that Von Miller and Denver abused vs. Carolina in the Super Bowl. Miller was the MVP in that game with two strip sacks of Cam. On the flip side, I think Tampa Bay can win in many ways with Tom Brady having a bigger game or a smaller game. If they’re able to run the football, they can have success without Brady necessarily having a huge effort.

  • mike42

    @klf_is_gonna_rock_ya said...

    Thanks BIF. You like evans or Godwin more?

    For what it’s worth, Tb (brady) has some pretty obvious splits when facing man or zone. Evans (and S. Miller) are huge vs zone, Gronk and Godwin vs man. KC plays man at one of the highest rates in the NFL. If AB is out, I think Godwin leads in TGTS by a pretty wide margin in part because they target a rookie slot CB over the others. Beasley was the only productive WR last week too.

    Read last week that Lenny caught like 75% of his passes vs zone too but teams run zone usually a pretty big % of the time so the numbers may sound bigger than they really are.

    Rojo- I got screwed last week by TJ yeldon and it made sense watching the game, he flat out looked better. Rojo should see 3 of the first 10ish carries and I don’t think his upside is limited to a TD. If he looks better than Lenny, he will get more carries. Lenny goes 1,4,2,1,4 on his carries and Rojo goes 3,19,8 on his, Arians will switch it up, just like Buf did last week. Rain favors Rojo’s style over Lenny’s spin moves too. Multiple paths for Rojo outside of a TD, including 1 long run, which he did vs NO’s and Wash, just didn’t take it to the house.

  • mike42

    @squidkill said...

    no feelings in here ….. it’s a safe space for middle age balding men who have a lifetime of broken dreams……

    gotta have some thick skin in here papa….. but still send it

    Squd, I got a $250 risk free 3 team parlay on the NBA offered by FD. Any ideas? Anyone? Points, rebounds, sides, totals, whatever. Has to be tonight and I don’t follow the NBA.

    Also, switch to FD for betting. They have given me so many promotions, free money, it’s ridiculous. Plus, the same game parlay is awesome.

    For moderator purposes: I like the under in the super bowl. I stayed on topic.

  • odanny

    @TopDawgs07 said...

    When looking at LUs, I keep coming back to trying to decide how I build LUs based on the QB. Do you want both, or just one, and if just one, which way do you lean. I actually think TB wins a close game, but if that plays out, its hard for me to decide what to make of Mahomes. KC doesn’t run the ball with any great consistency. Stopping the run and and defending pass catching RB’s is a specialty for TB. For TB to win this game, I think they need to get a lot of pressure with their front 4. Eric Fisher being out is big. His replacement is Mike Remmers. The same OT that Von Miller and Denver abused vs. Carolina in the Super Bowl. Miller was the MVP in that game with two strip sacks of Cam. On the flip side, I think Tampa Bay can win in many ways with Tom Brady having a bigger game or a smaller game. If they’re able to run the football, they can have success without Brady necessarily having a huge effort.

    That’s a good take, what I like about Tampa Bay is they have more offensive options to choose from, and they have the GOAT. However, conceivably the only player who can claim future GOAT status is taking snaps on the other side, and Andy Reid gets a coaching upgrade over Arians, who tends towards being conservative and kicking FG’s, which is one reason I think this games goes UNDER.

  • BIF

    @odanny said...

    That’s a good take, what I like about Tampa Bay is they have more offensive options to choose from, and they have the GOAT. However, conceivably the only player who can claim future GOAT status is taking snaps on the other side, and Andy Reid gets a coaching upgrade over Arians, who tends towards being conservative and kicking FG’s, which is one reason I think this games goes UNDER.

    One of guys on ESPN made a point similar to my heavily biased view in that if you compare the 22 starters man for man on offense and defense, the Bucs have better personnel and you’d probably only choose the Chief player in 5-6 of the 22 cases.

    This doesn’t mean that the Bucs win as the Chiefs studs can win a game almost single handedly but from a matchup basis; the Bucs OL and DL as well as LBs are all better than the Chiefs other than Chris Jones and an OUT LT Fisher. The secondaries are pretty similar, I think the Bucs unit is a little better as a unit but the Honey Badger is the best individual player.

    The game comes down to what it usually does for the Chiefs – can Mahomes, Tyreek, Kelce and another random RB/WR do enough to overcome their deficiencies elsewhere ? The answer is almost always yes based on the last 3 seasons as the Chiefs don’t lose much and never by much when they do. Amazingly, Mahomes has never lost by double digits in his pro career.

  • odanny

    @BIF said...

    One of guys on ESPN made a point similar to my heavily biased view in that if you compare the 22 starters man for man on offense and defense, the Bucs have better personnel and you’d probably only choose the Chief player in 5-6 of the 22 cases.

    This doesn’t mean that the Bucs win as the Chiefs studs can win a game almost single handedly but from a matchup basis; the Bucs OL and DL as well as LBs are all better than the Chiefs other than Chris Jones and an OUT LT Fisher. The secondaries are pretty similar, I think the Bucs unit is a little better as a unit but the Honey Badger is the best individual player.

    The game comes down to what it usually does for the Chiefs – can Mahomes, Tyreek, Kelce and another random RB/WR do enough to overcome their deficiencies elsewhere ? The answer is almost always yes based on the last 3 seasons as the Chiefs don’t lose much and never by much when they do. Amazingly, Mahomes has never lost by double digits in his pro career.

    That’s a 100% factual analysis. It seems the unicorn always finds a way to win, grind out the yards with Kelce, who is open across the middle so Tyfreak or Hardman don’t burn you deep, and sprinkle in some CEH or Darrell Williams, and when you think you have them all covered inside the red zone, Reid calls a play that has an eligible tackle catch a 5 yd pass from Hardman, or Mahomes runs it in, or Kelce takes a dump off, Reid is the master of confusing DC’s. All I know is that the Tampa defense has to be extremely physical, especially against Mahomes. He cannot have time in the pocket, and if steps out and decides to run, TB is going to have to hit him before he slides for a 10 or 20 yd run. They contained Rodgers well, but Mahomes is Mahomes.

  • squidkill

    @mike42 said...

    Squd, I got a $250 risk free 3 team parlay on the NBA offered by FD. Any ideas? Anyone? Points, rebounds, sides, totals, whatever. Has to be tonight and I don’t follow the NBA.

    Also, switch to FD for betting. They have given me so many promotions, free money, it’s ridiculous. Plus, the same game parlay is awesome.

    For moderator purposes: I like the under in the super bowl. I stayed on topic.

    NBA is a beast haven’t played much this year. I’d jump over in their forum and ask Panda. He’s pretty knowledgeable, that whole forum in general is solid

  • TopDawgs07

    On DK, anyone have any bets or prop bets that stick out to you in particular?

  • squidkill

    @TopDawgs07 said...

    On DK, anyone have any bets or prop bets that stick out to you in particular?

    Oh yes

    I like Brady mvp +210
    Over in team combined sacks
    TB punter

  • squidkill

    @squidkill said...

    Oh yes

    I like Brady mvp +210
    Over in team combined sacks
    TB punter

    It pains me to have to make a border trip to use DK sports book

  • TopDawgs07

    LOL, that was going to be my follow up question. I live close to the Indiana border. I can make that quick trip, place a bet, and it’ll allow me to, correct?

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