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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 11/28
    12:30 PM EST : Chicago ( -1 ) at Detroit ( 1 ) —- T: 38.5
    4:30 PM EST : Buffalo ( 7 ) at Dallas ( -7 ) —- T: 44.5
    8:20 PM EST : New Orleans ( -7 ) at Atlanta ( 7 ) —- T: 50

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • TommyWantWingy33

    @BIF said...

    From memory it was late 2nd Q (with 3ish mins left) he was off to a decent start (I owned some) with a 3-4 catches and a few decent runs.

    Yeah had 4 targets and a decent amount of rush attempts…..4 first half targets is pretty good….5100 nice little price tag.

  • BIF

    @Messiah717 said...

    The early Thanksgiving game is usually forgettable. This one looks like a complete disaster.

    What is that comment based on ?

    The early game over the last decade has provided a ton of fantasy goodness and has been 1st or 2nd highest scoring in most years.

    Since 2010, the Lions game has had a combine 50 or more points in 6 of the 9 years with the other three being 29, 39 and 42 (the 42 was also the most of three games that year).

    2010
    New England Patriots 45 Detroit Lions 24

    New Orleans Saints 30 Dallas Cowboys 27

    Cincinnati Bengals 10 New York Jets 26

    November 24, 2011
    Green Bay Packers 27 Detroit Lions 15

    Miami Dolphins 19 Dallas Cowboys 20

    San Francisco 49ers 6 Baltimore Ravens 16

    November 22, 2012
    Houston Texans 34 Detroit Lions 31 (OT)

    Washington Redskins 38 Dallas Cowboys 31

    NE Patriots 49 New York Jets 19 (butt fumble)

    November 28, 2013
    Green Bay Packers 10 Detroit Lions 40

    Oakland Raiders 24 Dallas Cowboys 31

    Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Baltimore Ravens 22

    November 27, 2014
    Chicago Bears 17 Detroit Lions 34

    Philadelphia Eagles 33 Dallas Cowboys 10

    Seattle Seahawks 19 San Francisco 49ers 3

    November 26, 2015
    Philadelphia Eagles 14 Detroit Lions 45

    Carolina Panthers 33 Dallas Cowboys 14

    Chicago Bears 17 Green Bay Packers 13

    November 24, 2016
    Minnesota Vikings 13 Detroit Lions 16

    Washington Redskins 26 Dallas Cowboys 31

    Pittsburgh Steelers 28 Indianapolis Colts 7

    November 23, 2017
    Minnesota Vikings 30 Detroit Lions 23

    Los Angeles Chargers 28 Dallas Cowboys 6

    New York Giants 10 Washington Redskins 20

    November 22, 2018
    Chicago Bears 23 Detroit Lions 16

    Washington Redskins 23 Dallas Cowboys 31

    Atlanta Falcons 17 New Orleans Saints 31

  • BIF

    @NoLimits0 said...

    Because the two RBs to choose are Kamara and Elliott.

    No ones gonna choose a Lions RB. People might choose Montgomery since he’s a good pair with bears D.

    Kamara has 56 FP in his last 3 games since returning from injury which computes to an average of 2.35X value

    He has not gone over 22 FP since Week 3 which was 7 games ago for him – he has been a huge letdown and is in a committee with Lat Murray.

    From a pure points/salary value and touches/targets opportunity perspective, both Freeman and Scarborough at around 5K should be near locks to meet and exceed Kamara’s 2.3X average. If one of them can match Kamara’s value and you use the 3K savings to buy up to MT, Cooper, Julio, Ridley, ARob or MJJ you will pass a lot of lineups.

  • S7ubs

    Am I the only one who loves ARob tomorrow?

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    Real hard not to eat the chalk for Thanksgiving Day’s small slate,
    Kamara and Mike Thomas mixed with Zeke fill out your plate.

    Pass the turkey and the taters and four touchdowns from Drew Brees,
    Lion stuffing for the Bears D brings David Blough down to his knees.

    I’ll look to be contrary, fade those sweet potato pies,
    Everyone is on J. Wims watch McKenzie catch 2 flies.

    Win lose or draw the pastries out, perhaps some french cognac?
    Give thanks that Sunday’s 3 days away to win some money back.

    Happy Thanksgiving to all, may your day be full of food, family and profit

  • BIF

    @S7ubs said...

    Am I the only one who loves ARob tomorrow?

    I’m playing him as my WR3/Flex in season long and would really love him tomorrow if Mitch has not been feeding Miller as his favorite target the last couple of weeks and also I’d like him more if I thought the game would stay more competitive forcing Bears to throw on something other than 3rd downs in the 3rd and 4th Quarters

  • Supanice

    @BIF said...

    Kamara has 56 FP in his last 3 games since returning from injury which computes to an average of 2.35X value

    He has not gone over 22 FP since Week 3 which was 7 games ago for him – he has been a huge letdown and is in a committee with Lat Murray.

    From a pure points/salary value and touches/targets opportunity perspective, both Freeman and Scarborough at around 5K should be near locks to meet and exceed Kamara’s 2.3X average. If one of them can match Kamara’s value and you use the 3K savings to buy up to MT, Cooper, Julio, Ridley, ARob or MJJ you will pass a lot of lineups.

    You are pretty much doxxing my process for this slate right now.

    Driskel being ruled out was a gut punch for my Trubeski stacks but I am talking myself into it even more now. More possessions in a dome and Lions will be selling out to stop the run. Dome QB favorite at under 12% for GPP yes please. Lions doing everything in their power to bleed the clock is my main worry.

    Kamara was doing nothing last week until the Panthers were about to win then he started getting the dink and dunks. Kamara was frequently subbed out near the goal line for Murray, and Cook got 3 end zone targets that I saw.

    There are multiple paths to failure for Kamara that will wipe out 60% of the field. I will be under weight on him.

  • Messiah717

    Singletary or Cohen?

  • lemay88

    Would you play Josh Allen or Trubisky? I got Miller if it matters or a naked Allen

  • bmann

    On DK, for a three game NFL slate like this, how much do you consider the possibility of duplicate lineups? How many duplicates might you expect for a relatively chalky lineup that doesn’t leave much cash on the table?

  • lemay88

    Can someone enlighten me if Trequan Smith has any chance of exploding tomorrow? Seems like he would a super contrarian play that could win 1st place.

  • NoLimits0

    @BIF said...

    Kamara has 56 FP in his last 3 games since returning from injury which computes to an average of 2.35X value

    He has not gone over 22 FP since Week 3 which was 7 games ago for him – he has been a huge letdown and is in a committee with Lat Murray.

    From a pure points/salary value and touches/targets opportunity perspective, both Freeman and Scarborough at around 5K should be near locks to meet and exceed Kamara’s 2.3X average. If one of them can match Kamara’s value and you use the 3K savings to buy up to MT, Cooper, Julio, Ridley, ARob or MJJ you will pass a lot of lineups.

    Where do you get that Bo and Freeman are locks to exceed 2.3x by Kamara?

    Bo has like 9 and 11 FPs on the year in his 2 games. He hasn’t even done a good job really exceeding 2.3x against crappy defenses at his current price and his average of 10 FPs multiplier at 4.7k is worse than Kamaras average that you hate.

    There’s a real chance Bo and Freeman might not exceed 1x where Kamara can get 4x.

  • lemay88

    @NoLimits0 said...

    There’s a real chance Bo and Freeman might not exceed 1x where Kamara can get 4x.

    To flip your argument my friend… Kamara has never had a TD in a Thursday night game, ever in his career. He has only two TD’s this year and has been vultured by Murray at a ridiculous pace. Scarborough has a 3rd string QB who literally passed the ball or handed it off to his RB in pre-season every single snap. Freeman is Freeman.

    I am on the fade Kamara train, ready to die on that hill today. He will not pay off his salary. He has scored 20 fantasy points or more only twice all year (on Fanduel anyways). It’s your money bud, but when Kamara goes for 15 fpts which is what’s he’s averaging since Week 2, he is a bust.

  • Brandon6385

    Does anyone think we’re going to see some overlay??

  • Alvance83

    @S7ubs said...

    Am I the only one who loves ARob tomorrow?

    I’m with ya!

  • monarch

    I’m playing Montgomery

    So Amari Cooper at home is a thing. And Tradavious White shadow coverage is a thing and Cobb and Gallup have much better matchups and are enticing but I just know if I fade Cooper I will end up being disappointed as he erupts while I’m walking around the outlet mall tonight.

  • depalma13

    I’m playing David Blough because he is a very talented magician.

    https://detroitsportsnation.com/detroit-lions-thanksgiving-starting-qb-david-blough-performs-3-mind-blowing-magic-tricks-video/ddrysdale/detroit-lions-news/11/27/2019/213665/

  • BIF

    @NoLimits0 said...

    Where do you get that Bo and Freeman are locks to exceed 2.3x by Kamara?

    Bo has like 9 and 11 FPs on the year in his 2 games. He hasn’t even done a good job really exceeding 2.3x against crappy defenses at his current price and his average of 10 FPs multiplier at 4.7k is worse than Kamaras average that you hate.

    There’s a real chance Bo and Freeman might not exceed 1x where Kamara can get 4x.

    Yah Bo probably needs to fall in the end zone to hit 2.5X because he is not really involved in passing game but you saying Freeman only hits 1X is comical unless you think your guy Brian Hill is getting 75% of the work as Devonta will be targeted 4-7 times so that alone will get him 7-10 fantasy points before his rushing yards.

    Kamara is in a decent spot (as anyone playing the Falcons is) but for someone who comes in here and talks about people being overpriced (like you did with Jacobs) you should clearly see that Kamara is overpriced. He’s getting very little goalline work, his pass game usage was down from past years until the last couple of games and this is the time of the year that Payton really like Brees to spreads it around – would not surprise me to see Josh Hill and Taysom Hill both get TDs tonight.

    So many good WRs with smash game potential on the slate, almost all of my lineups will have 4 WRs versus 3 RBs and when I’m doing that, I can’t afford both Zeke and Kamara so it’ll be one of those plus Devonta mostly and occasionally mixed in with the odd Lat, Monty, Cohen, Bo, JD, etc

  • devouredbychaos

    @monarch said...

    I’m playing Montgomery

    So Amari Cooper at home is a thing. And Tradavious White shadow coverage is a thing and Cobb and Gallup have much better matchups and are enticing but I just know if I fade Cooper I will end up being disappointed as he erupts while I’m walking around the outlet mall tonight.

    Good call. DeVante Parker went 7/135 against the Bills 2 weeks ago, don’t see any reason why Cooper can’t do the same if not better.

  • zpa1989

    thoughts on the following guys for GPP

    J.P Holt
    Tarik Cohen
    Trequan Smith

  • devouredbychaos

    @BIF said...

    Yah Bo probably needs to fall in the end zone to hit 2.5X because he is not really involved in passing game but you saying Freeman only hits 1X is comical unless you think your guy Brian Hill is getting 75% of the work as Devonta will be targeted 4-7 times so that alone will get him 7-10 fantasy points before his rushing yards.

    Kamara is in a decent spot (as anyone playing the Falcons is) but for someone who comes in here and talks about people being overpriced (like you did with Jacobs) you should clearly see that Kamara is overpriced. He’s getting very little goalline work, his pass game usage is down from past years and this is the time of the year that Payton really like Brees to spreads it around – would not surprise me to see Josh Hill and Taysom Hill both get TDs tonight.

    So many good WRs with smash game potential on the slate, almost all of my lineups will have 4 WRs versus 3 RBs and when I’m doing that, I can’t afford both Zeke and Kamara so it’ll be one of those plus Devonta mostly and occasionally mixed in with the odd Lat, Monty, Cohen, Bo, JD, etc

    Who are your favorite WRs for the slate? Having a hard time figuring out who the Falcons WR to play is. Looks like Lattimore is back too.

  • BIF

    @devouredbychaos said...

    Who are your favorite WRs for the slate? Having a hard time figuring out who the Falcons WR to play is. Looks like Lattimore is back too.

    Lattimore back for sure so if the past is true, he’ll be on Ridley and they’d double Julio with under-over coverage (if Julio plays).

    Not sure who my favorites are after MT and Ridley/Julio but I’ll mix most of the early guys in and have some shares of ARob, Miller, Brown, Coop, Gallup, Cobb plus a couple MJJ and Amendola just in case Blough completes a few.

  • tristanwolf

    i think julio with a guy in the flex spot from that game to tinker a 2v2 swap is a good play a lot of the early set it forget guys will probably pass on the q tag.

  • lemay88

    Anybody else ready to die on the fade Kamara hill? He is gonna highly owned and wont make value, let’s do this!

  • monarch

    I’m fading Kamara.

    I think naked Allen is intriguing. I think that’s the best game and he should be chasing and running and sliding and all the things he does to elevate his DK score.

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